Tom Bruni, CPA, CMT
@BruniCharting
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Head of Market Research @Stocktwits leading all things newsletters/content. Views my own, unless I'm hacked. Then all bets are off.
NY
Joined August 2013
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Some personal news...
Today is my last official day at All Star Charts.
It's a bittersweet moment, but I'm looking forward to hitting pause for a bit to explore and decide what's next.
Wishing JC and the entire
@allstarcharts
well. Keep on rocking!
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I don't know about y'all, but I just bought myself more stocks at a steep discount for Christmas.
If you're a trader, you should've been out of the way a while ago.
If you're an investor, here are the lower prices you were begging for the last few years.
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No, stocks have not gone "straight up."
Structurally we've had 3 cyclical bear markets since the '09 bottom, 2 since the historic breakout in 2013.
Prices went nowhere for 22 months in 2018-2019.
And tactically the market consolidated sideways for the last 3 weeks.
Stop it.
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This holiday weekend when your family and friends ask you what you think about the longest bull market in history, remind them that the market just broke out from an 18-month cyclical bear which means it's only a few days old.
Have a great weekend all!
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If you're a portfolio manager you're not buying mega-cap tech for the fundamentals.
You're buying mega-cap tech because you have to deliver performance and it's one of the few areas actually providing it.
Career risk is real. To ignore that fact/driver is a detriment to you.
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Gold and Silver (and the miners) sure do look ready go to...
Will this week be the start of their next leg higher?
Let me know what you think
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Is it safe to start contributing to my 401k again?
cc: all the people telling me how stupid I was to be buying on the way down...15% ago.
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Big level for the bulls to defend in Chinese solar component maker $DQ. This 12.50-14.50 region has acted as support/resistance since its IPO.
Some of its peers in the $TAN ETF are trying to stabilize, will see if DAQO can do the same.
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Just received
@michaelbatnick
's new book in the mail. Hearing that "Big Mistakes 2" is going to be a list of people who didn't read the first one.
Congrats again Mike, can't wait to dig in.
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@ReformedBroker
Never understood why people did this...I, however, will be enjoying unlimited salad and an amazing view from the second floor of the Times Square Ruby Tuesday for the low low couple's price of $999.
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Before we start with the "too far too fast" comments on Amazon and Netflix, I'd like to remind you that both stocks have gone absolutely nowhere for nearly 2 years.
If you're gonna fade them longer-term, you need a stronger argument than that.
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Some personal news: Today is my first day
@Stocktwits
as Senior Writer, The Daily Rip & Markets
I am excited to join the company whose platform helped give me my start a decade ago & serve up some world-class content for its community of investors/traders.
Hope y'all are ready!
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Loved joining
@SPYJared
& Sydnee Fried on
@YahooFinance
to discuss:
- Using social momentum to find market opportunities
- How retail uses community and
@Stocktwits
to find their edge
- The latest trades in stocks, gold, and India
- And a whole lot more!
🚀 From meme stocks to market momentum,
@BruniCharting
breaks down the
#RetailRevolution
and explodes a few myths along the way. Take a deep dive into the rise of social finance and the future of investing! on
#StocksInTranslation
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Market bulls do not want to see Copper resolve this "bull flag" to the downside.
I'd argue that this and Crude Oil's daily chart are two of the most important in determining the next short-term direction of risk assets.
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Sugar futures are setting up for another mean reversion back toward the top of this well-defined range of $17.40 to $20.50.
The risk level is clear, so the bulls will keep playing this range until it breaks imo. $SB_F $CANE $DBA
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@TaviCosta
So by that same logic were you buying stocks aggressively in December 2018 and January 2019 when bullish candles appeared at trendline support?
or at any point since then?
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"If you're thinking about saving for retirement at 22, you must be like, the least fun person on the planet."
@michaelbatnick
on episode 30 of Animal Spirits.
@awealthofcs
Guess it's time to update my twitter bio.
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When
@allstarcharts
' "co-best men" create an analog chart of JC and Morgan's relationship and the S&P 500.
It's clear they know him well.
Logarithmic scale, nice touch boys.
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Dear
@CMTAssociation
,
I regret to inform you that you'll have one additional application to process in the coming weeks. I sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.
Once certification down, 2 to go!
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@TheStalwart
Damn. AI gonna put a lot of Twitter reply guys/gals out of business because these are so good lol.
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The truth? What we saw in 2018 was standard behavior, the price of admission for long-term investors.
At 17%, the S&P 500’s annualized volatility in 2018 was just a hair above its calendar year average going back to 1928 (16.3%)
@charliebilello
's post:
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Wow, it only took one interaction to get me blocked.
Spend long enough on this platform and it becomes very obvious who is open to new information/ideas and who has already made up their mind.
Best of luck to you, Tavi. Sorry for any disturbance I've caused you
@TaviCosta
@TaviCosta
So by that same logic were you buying stocks aggressively in December 2018 and January 2019 when bullish candles appeared at trendline support?
or at any point since then?
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Every reply to this tweet misses the point.
I'm 24 and dollar cost averaging into 3 index funds every 2 weeks, with additional contributions after large drawdowns.
I'm buying stocks when they're up, down, and flat b/c I know for my needs time in the market > timing the market.
I don't know about y'all, but I just bought myself more stocks at a steep discount for Christmas.
If you're a trader, you should've been out of the way a while ago.
If you're an investor, here are the lower prices you were begging for the last few years.
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Gold back above 2,000 as investors realize that Asteroid farming might take a few more days than expected to set up.
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Anyone else think that Crude Oil could double from here?
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Quick reminder that overbought can get overboughterer and oversold can get oversolderer.
Looking at you Euro and US Dollar Index...
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In all seriousness, I get why people are mad at Robinhood, but when the dust settles I'm sure they'll offer free trades to all those affected.
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Six months ago I'd beg for the day to go by quickly so I could leave work, now I'm begging for it to slow down so I have more time to work on cool things.
I have so many questions that I'm trying to answer and things I want to learn. List keeps growing...good prob to have tho.
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Just saw a popular fin-meme account on Instagram showing that Deutsche Bank has 0 buy ratings for the first time in the stock's history.
I dunno, that base to me over the last year + looks great.
If this gets going to the upside, the squeeze will be epic. 7.50 is the level imo.
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Crypto folks before: "Using market-cap to measure the size of the crypto market is stupid. There are better metrics out there to show the true value."
Crypto folks now: "DOGECOIN VALUED AT $75 BILLION; BIGGER THAN TWITTER, CAPITAL ONE, BARCLAYS. JUST THE BEGINNING. 🚀🚀🚀🌕🌕👌"
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Either these textbook consolidations in the miners resolve to the upside...or they break down instead and we've got a very big shift in the market environment.
Judging by the response to yesterday's Gold and Silver chart, I'm gonna guess y'all are bullish.
$GDX $GDX $SIL $SILJ
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If you hated it at 180, then you must really hate it at 750.
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Congrats to
@ReformedBroker
longs as he hits 1 million followers. Still like him, but his P/E ratio is entering nosebleed territory so the subz and I are feeding the ducks a bit at current levels. Gotta stay disciplined.
#process
Have a good weekend Josh!
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I still don't know what a semiconductor is, and at this point, I'm too afraid to ask.
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Todd Sohn from
@StrategasRP
dropping some knowledge at the
@CMTAssociation
NY Chapter Meeting.
The number of stocks with an upward-sloping 200-day moving average hit a 1.5-year high last week.
Long-term breadth improving despite choppiness in the S&P 500?
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Everyone is so smug toward the index/passive crowd when the market corrects, but forget that the average person isn't on Fintwit and doesn't have any need for alpha.
They need education, financial plans, to pay off high interest debt, and to begin saving in the first place.
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It’s been exactly one year since I announced I was leaving the research business.
So to keep the serendipity god happy, today I want to share the new project I’m launching on YouTube!
You can read all about it in this quick blog post.
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So this morning I show up at some place called Real Vision expecting an eye exam and Justine starts asking me about Bonds instead.
Threw me off a little, but I went with it.
Free video out Monday.
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Our "keep it simple stupid" approach towards Precious Metals continues to work.
If it ain't broke don't fix it.
Now the only question is does Silver break 18.90-19.00 this week and supercharge the rally?
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The market's "best players" have NOT broken the December 2018 lows on an equally-weighted basis while the S&P 500 has.
Another positive divergence to add to the list.
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@danielcrosby
Maybe I'm just cynical, but why do we set unrealistic expectations for ourselves by trying to emulate people that have already become successful and obtained the freedom to craft their life however they see fit?
Doubt they had the same habits during the process of getting there.
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My age adds another year today, making it 26 straight years of bull market action.
A bubble if I've ever seen one...
Thanks to everyone who made age 25 a great time. The weight of evidence is suggesting big things ahead for age 26.
Stay tuned & Happy Halloween y'all 🤫🎃
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American Express doesn't care about your selloff. Closed at new all-time highs today. Have a nice weekend y'all.
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US Dollar Index continues to base above support. Don't see a major directional move happening until 87 is broken on the downside or 93 on the upside.
Given the improving momentum, poor sentiment (anecdata & COT data), and short-term price action, I'd rather be long than short.
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I needed a little break this weekend, so I took a trip around the world to explore its many islands.
Here's what I found:
on
@allstarcharts
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You're telling me they taught us geometry in High School, but not about Central Bank manipulation?
Something is wrong when kids graduate knowing the Pythagorean theorem, but not the dangers of money printing.
Smash that like button & share with a friend if you agree.
#EndTheFed
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Congrats to
@TheChartReport
on reaching 10k Twitter followers.
Still one of the best daily emails I get and it's not even close.
Nice job at the helm of this
@Pdunuwila
, be sure to have a cold one this weekend to celebrate.
And cheers to many more charts ahead 🍾
Today's Chart of the Day was shared by
@murphycharts
Click here to read more!
$KRE $XLF $KBE $TNX
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Atharva reached out to me last week for advice about Technical Analysis and Trading. I told him to start a blog and get on Twitter. Less than a week later, he's got his first post.
Can y'all help me welcome him to the Fintwit Community?
#FF
@AtharvaPB
&
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Mystery Chart Reveal "Avoiding These Groups At The Index Level" on
@allstarcharts
My first post as an official CMT, pretty cool
@CMTAssociation
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I think today's close is important.
If we don't see new lows on the day and/or close green, it's going to trap all of those people pressing shorts at the open and chasing defensives like Yen/Bonds.
I'm personally seeing more things I want to buy than sell.
Watching closely.
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New S&P 500 monthly chart.
Bulls see new all-time monthly closing highs.
Bears see a potential "hanging man" reversal pattern forming.
I see that it's 5:00 pm and time to celebrate my 25th birthday with Thai Food, Ice Cream, and some spooky memes.
Happy Halloween all!
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Congrats to all the people/firms that bought blocks of apartments around NYC to rent to all the new Amazon employees.
When trading around news backfires...
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In five words or fewer*
In 5 words or less, start a fight without politics
29K
756
8K
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Congratulations to Microsoft for:
1) Finally getting me to restart my computer to install their updates; and
2) Changing the Microsoft Edge logo so it takes me a second longer to find and delete it.
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When I find myself drawing more Fibonacci Retracements than Extensions, it's likely not an environment where stocks are going up.
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A close above the 10-month moving average and 200-day moving average this week would get basic trend-following systems long again after selling at the end of February.
At least for the R3K and S&P 500. IWM not so far, and QQQ already above it last month.
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Bitcoin is on the verge of a breakdown as it tests a ~9-month uptrend line. At the very least, its rate of trend has shifted, and momentum has faded.
Should prices break decisively below it, the May lows & 200-day moving average around 56,000 are the next level to watch. $BTC.X
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Nothing changes sentiment like price...
MORGAN STANLEY MULLS OFFERING BITCOIN ETF TO CUSTOMERS:COINDESK
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There are global stock markets, and Den there's Mark.
Tip your waitress.
I'll be here all week.
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FWIW, I am a buyer at current levels.
or any level really, for the next 40 years.
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Had to grab a print edition to see
@Stocktwits
appear in the
@WSJ
's coverage of the E*TRADE vs. Keith Gill situation. Wild way to start the week. 👀
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Soybean Meal could be the next agricultural commodity to get going.
This little failed breakdown below support and a bullish momentum divergence could spark some mean reversion toward the 200-day at ~356.
Cute setup, but definitely one of the weaker ones in the group.
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Thanks for the intro JC. Excited to be part of the
@allstarcharts
team and hope that I can add value for our readers and the rest of the Fintwit community.
Thanks everyone for the support now and over the years.
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I don't have the same market approach as
@EddyElfenbein
, but if you're interesting in seeing the approach of professional who buys and holds great companies, his blog is the place to start.
He recently published his 2019 Buy List, so go check it out!
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Gold, bro.
This is literally your time to shine.
Get it together, ffs.
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Gold held 1680 where it had to and the miners held above their breakout level as well, now let's see them make new highs.
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The only chart I need on my screen right now is the US Dollar Index.
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I gotta tell you, I'm really digging this base in Small-Cap Healthcare / Large-Cap Healthcare ($PSCH/$XLV).
Don't sleep on this one, looks like a trend reversal is in progress and soon to be completed.
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$SPY 63-day (quarterly) rate of change is now negative for the first time since May.
If this selloff continues, I'm looking at the confluence of the VWAP from its 2022 high and low converging about 5% below current levels. Also, several highs from earlier this year around ~415.
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Lumber limit down.
Looks like I will get back to being lonely on the Lumber streams.
Was nice while it lasted.
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New Mystery Chart on
@allstarcharts
Let me know what you're doing here.
Buying, Selling, or Nothing.
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The Alternative Harvest ETF $MJ continues to stabilize above support at 12.60 following an "island reversal" in May.
Risk very well-defined on the long side...or at least worth looking at the components for potential longs.
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New Post: "A Day Trading YouTuber"
In this new post I outline why this Twitter account/my blog will be inactive and where you can follow along with what I'm doing next.
Wishing you all a healthy & prosperous 2021!
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$CGC is the only name on my list of liquid marijuana stocks that looks really good. Based on my stream I would think they'd all be ripping.
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The Nikkei 225 and Five Year Treasury Note are the two most important charts on my screen for the foreseeable future.
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@morganhousel
Manager: Is it muted?
Staff: Yes
Manager: Are you SURE?
Staff: Yes
From phone: *Sorry, who's speaking?*
Entire room:
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A lot of indexes around the world are up 15-20-30% in about three weeks.
European Banks $EUFN up 30%.
A pause or correction doesn't need to be the start of a new bear market.
It can be just that, a pause.
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Equally-Weighted Technology less than 1% from all-time highs.
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If you're buy & hold, then there was no reason to be out of Gold since it broke out above 1,375-1,400.
If you're active, then there was tremendous opportunity cost not being in stocks instead of Gold after it confirmed a failed breakout on 09/05/2020.
That flipped on Tuesday.
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@ReformedBroker
Don't appreciate you publishing my email to all of your snowflake followers, Josh. This isn't over.
- Tom
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JC: "If 10s are back below 3%, I think we could see a face ripper in Treasury Bonds."
Catherine: "...What do you mean a face ripper in Treasury Bonds?"
Time to add "face ripper" to
@Investopedia
along with "hot mess".
Here is the video from my interview yesterday on
@BNNBloomberg
$GLD $SPY $TLT $HYG $HG_F $DJIA $XLF $XLK $XLY $XLU $XLV
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Most thought a rally in the dollar would crush commodities across the board, but they've held up really well over the last month or so. Especially precious metals.
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Buybacks may be evil, but companies that do them most are, in fact, breaking out.
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