Brad Lyons
@BLyons151
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Chief Research Strategist @BWGStrategy . Public equities - TMT/Consumer/Semis/FinTech/Solar/Industrials. Personal views only, not investment advice.
New York City
Joined September 2021
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Good Morning - Ramping the Twitter posts back up!
Just released a new iteration of the Fundamental Pulse (my newsletter that highlights what I consider the most notable stories / data points from BWG/OTR research). Make sure to register using the below link to be added to my
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Some activist presentations... always an interesting read.
Starboard - Algonquin - $AQN
Engaged Capital - VF Corp - $VFC
Starboard - Bloomin Brands - $BLMN
Starboard - Fortrea - $FTRE
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Updated V2 "Best of Best" List [80% through my review]
Reminder that this list is based upon underlying biz fundamentals, channel checks & some technical KPIs. Inclusion on this list is based upon companies that I view as having attractive upside on a 2-year basis.
Some of
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I asked a China-based investor what he thought of the long China trade. His comments seem to run counter to the fintwit consensus view.
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Really digging this RBC vertical software piece. Top down analysis that covers 36 different names... some notable companies covered = $ADSK $SQ $CSU $CWAN $GWRE $IOT $PLTR $PTC $QTWO $SSNC $TOST $VEEV
"According to Gartner, the global software market today is $915B, growing to
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$ADYEY $PYPL | Some thoughts related to our Adyen customer channel checks we published last month.
Feedback from global enterprise merchants suggests that Adyen remains incredibly insulated within their TPV mix and is well positioned to gain incremental contribution from
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JPM's TMT Ideas for 2024..... I agree with majority of their thematic plays in this write up.
TELECOMS: Long bias for wireless over cable reiterated. Wireless management messaging through Q4 has been upbeat and the group will start to see the benefits of a roll-off of C-band
Updated V2 "Best of Best" List [80% through my review]
Reminder that this list is based upon underlying biz fundamentals, channel checks & some technical KPIs. Inclusion on this list is based upon companies that I view as having attractive upside on a 2-year basis.
Some of
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2 Emerging IT Hardware Trends We See Driving The Market into '24 $NVDA $AMD $SMCI $TSM $VRT $INTC $MU $HPE
(1) The likelihood of a massive and potentially unprecedented wave of data center capacity expansion from 2024-2026 with focus on high compute density facilities that
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[Must read] Refreshed views from Bernstein on Temu - very detailed work here... read throughs on $META $SNAP $PINS ad spend from Temu.
"Every time we write about Temu, we raise our GMV estimates. Since our last update on Temu, the company has continued to expand rapidly, and
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Alliance Bernstein on $PYPL... they share a similar view to my own: (1) data still shows share losses on the branded side of the business (Salesforce holiday data highlighted -9% y/y w/ continued digital wallet pressure +50% y/y, mainly from Apple Pay) (2) gross profit also
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$CRWD | Just spoke with the VP of Sales at a CrowdStrike Channel Partner for some last minute inputs ahead of the quarter. See below. Earnings after the bell.
---
Approximately, what is the size of your CrowdStrike security business (that you have visibility into)?
>$15,000,000
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TD Cowen's Best Ideas for 2024 ... I'm a big fan of a lot of these names.
Acadia Healthcare $ACHC
Agios Pharmaceuticals $AGIO
Alpine Immune Sciences $ALPN
$AMZN
Applied Materials $AMAT
Argenx $ARGX
AstraZeneca $AZN
Axsome Therapeutics $AXSM
Biogen
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Really really like this graphic from Wells Fargo on their 2024 outlook for $SNAP $PINS $META $GOOGL
Wells Fargo: "We prefer $SNAP & $PINS for revenue acceleration in '24; still see upside to $META '24/'25 EPS but watch revs decel in '24, especially in 2H. Expect rising
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(1/2) In the spirit of the holidays, here is a list of accounts that truly make this platform better. Whether we've had a direct conversation or not, I just want to say that I value each and every one of your posts. Thanks for always dropping knowledge and cheers to 2024.
I
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$PYPL vs. $ADYEY | New article out from Forbes this AM that
@BWGStrategy
contributed some thoughts to.
Last year PayPal slashed its prices in its payment services business in an attempt to fend off Dutch giant Ayden and other encroaching competitors. The strategy is working,
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Nice bull v bear graphic from BofA on $GOOGL and their relative positioning in 2024
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Nice update from Goldman Sachs on Adyen...
"We remain confident in Adyen’s multiple growth levers over the long term — its “land and expand” strategy with existing customers driving share gains and growth from new customers across the three pillars of digital, unified commerce
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$ADYEY | Goldman's recent note on Adyen pointing to a lot of the key conclusions I outlined in the quoted tweet (where the views were derived from our merchant channel checks).
GS view on Adyen | Expected growth recovery in 2024 and LT value well underpinned by better clarity
$ADYEY $PYPL | Some thoughts related to our Adyen customer channel checks we published last month.
Feedback from global enterprise merchants suggests that Adyen remains incredibly insulated within their TPV mix and is well positioned to gain incremental contribution from
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Quick review of my high conviction / deep dive posts (average perf +65%). I'll increase the frequency of my posts in Feb so keep an eye out for some of my favorite ideas/setups for 2024.
Maintain my view on $DV $DESP $SMCI $VRT $ADYEY $DG $TKO $FLYW $FWONK $PINS ... still
Updated V2 "Best of Best" List [80% through my review]
Reminder that this list is based upon underlying biz fundamentals, channel checks & some technical KPIs. Inclusion on this list is based upon companies that I view as having attractive upside on a 2-year basis.
Some of
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$DESP - seeing this all over fintwit now - here was my initial write up. Lots more upside from here in my view.
+DM if u want some of the best sell side reports I’ve come across on the name. Happy to send across.
$DESP | Despegar on my "best of best" below.
Take a look at my brief write up on what I consider an overlooked / undervalued LatAm travel play. Likes + shares + comments are appreciated!
Despegar is a leading online travel agency (OTA) in LatAm with ~$5B in gross bookings and
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JPM's spec sales top long/short consumer ideas for 2024 + my quick thoughts on some of the call outs.
I share very similar views re: $ULTA $ELF $STZ $LULU long ideas and have all of them on my "best of best" list below. On the short side, I tend to agree with the valuation
Updated V2 "Best of Best" List [80% through my review]
Reminder that this list is based upon underlying biz fundamentals, channel checks & some technical KPIs. Inclusion on this list is based upon companies that I view as having attractive upside on a 2-year basis.
Some of
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I've fully launched my newsletter "The Fundamental Pulse" which highlights Fresh, High-Conviction Inflection-Centric Content from the BWG-OTR Primary Research Desk.
This will be the only time it's posted on X without delay so make sure to register to get included on my
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Needham chooses $GOOGL & $AMZN as their top 2 FAANG picks for 2024
$GOOGL is our favorite name in Big Tech for 2024 because we expect auto, M&E (film & TV), and travel ad spending to rebound, plus political ad spending to add new dollars y/y, and also because GOOGL has said it
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$DESP Nice 2x since I began posting about this one. Valuation was too attractive sub $7 and the discount vs. OTA peers really made no sense given the growth profile. Will see if it hovers at this resistance level or breaks towards $15. Big fan of the LT trajectory of this company
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$DESP has done quite well since I initially highlighted the company as an overlooked idea back in H2'23. I maintain my view that there is still a lot more upside from here.
Cantor Fitzgerald just initiated coverage on Despegar calling them "LatAm Travel Leader with Out of Whack
$DESP | Despegar on my "best of best" below.
Take a look at my brief write up on what I consider an overlooked / undervalued LatAm travel play. Likes + shares + comments are appreciated!
Despegar is a leading online travel agency (OTA) in LatAm with ~$5B in gross bookings and
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Long list, but here are some must follow accounts. You won't be disappointed. 🫡
@_fabknowledge_
@27XVII
@305_Capital
@allgapsfill
@AlphaSeeker84
@b_cap21
@borrowed_ideas
@BoxLongs
@buysidebogey
@callerycap
@CCM_Ryan
@ChairliftCap
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Wells Fargo 2024 Software Outlook: Key Themes + Favored Names
Theme
#1
: Macro stabilizing, light at end of tunnel in '24: Our year-end CIO survey suggests budget growth next year, with >90% of respondents suggesting budgets will grow in '24 (~50% low-single-digit growth, ~50%
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$LW - Lamb Weston - stock down 20% pre-market. I've written about the issues twice with my latest callout below.
Lamb Weston | LW | *AN UPDATE SINCE OUR PRIOR FP CALLOUT* Our recent checks provide more evidence that Lamb Weston's pricing proposals to restaurants have become
Good Morning - Ramping the Twitter posts back up!
Just released a new iteration of the Fundamental Pulse (my newsletter that highlights what I consider the most notable stories / data points from BWG/OTR research). Make sure to register using the below link to be added to my
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ˇˇˇ $ULTA on my "best of best" list below ˇˇˇ
DB out saying "ULTA remains one of our top ideas with the best risk/reward in our coverage. We see the retailer well positioned into next year given its supply chain and operational investments, 41M strong loyalty program which can
Updated V2 "Best of Best" List [80% through my review]
Reminder that this list is based upon underlying biz fundamentals, channel checks & some technical KPIs. Inclusion on this list is based upon companies that I view as having attractive upside on a 2-year basis.
Some of
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Another good chart from BofA on $META bull v bear talking points. Our 4Q checks point to continued uplift from $META's Advantage+ (which is driving efficiency/ROAS higher) and improvements in Reels trends. Advertisers continue to lean into the $META stack given its full funnel
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$PYPL $ADYEY Our note published in July | Exec View: Braintree Aggressively Priced Commodity Paired with PayPal Checkout
"PayPal pricing strategy: premium for Checkout and deep discount for Braintree. One former Braintree executive commented that PayPal (PYPL) management is
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Have called out a number of earnings overreactions that led to attractive dislocations between valuation + actual underlying business fundamentals.
Some of those recent call outs:
Adyen | $ADYEY | +70% [published long thesis @ $7]
Beauty Health Company | $SKIN |+45%
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Summarizing a large text dataset and decided to throw it in Grok to see what it spits back. Genuinely impressed with the output it gave back... was legitimately light years better than what MSFT Copilot gave back to us. Props
@elonmusk
Side note... MSFT Copilot is quite
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Back in the states after a lengthy break. I will be ramping up posts next week. Have quite a bit to catch up on. Will be posting a few new l/s ideas + update thesis on some of the names I was posting about in the beginning of the year.
Had some nice face rippers with $DESP $PI
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Evercore's Best Core Ideas $ADBE $AMZN $APH $BKR $BLK $CAT $CRBG $CSX $CVS $DHR $DAL $EXPE $XOM $ILMN $LYV $MDT $MET $MSFT $PINS $SLB $HD $KR $TMUS $WMT
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Updated Performance Review of my Twitter "Deep Dives"
Thesis behind the majority of these ideas remains unchanged.
Average performance across all ideas = +55%
$DV $W $DESP $SKIN $ADYEY $ENPH $DG $FLYW $PI $PINS $FWONK
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Appreciate all of the new followers lately. There are a number of companies that I’ve shared longer form thoughts on in the last 2-3 months so I’m linking those below for anyone interested. I’m fairly new to posting here, so trying my best to provide some differentiated insights.
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Vacation Rental Industry | $ABNB $BKNG | Reaction to a comment I got on one of my other posts.
"Airbnb poses risk to "
Please note that this my personal opinion and based upon a 6-12 month view of industry dynamics vs. a 3-6 month view.
---
I'd agree w/
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Really good commentary from Mizuho on IT Services names... $ACN $EPAM $GLOB $CTSH
ACN: "With the stock trading at ~27x CY25 adj. EPS, why shouldn't we rather own software or internet for AI exposure?" The most frequent feedback that we received was on ACN's lofty valuation
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$ZG Bernstein put out a very good analysis around the impact of the NAR settlement on Zillow. A few key charts/data points below...
Scenario analysis of potential Premier Agent revenue hit if buyer agent commission pool (TAM) pulls back -10%, -15%, -20%.
Breakdown of ZG's
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Just want to give a quick shout out to some super informative accounts on this platform. I recommend throwing them all a follow if you don’t already.
@27XVII
@305_Capital
@allgapsfill
@AlphaSeeker84
@borrowed_ideas
@BoxLongs
@buysidebogey
@CCM_Ryan
@ChairliftCap
@ClarkSquareCap
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$ENPH $SEDG | Our clients have been very well positioned for the downside moves in both names with all of the -ve data points we've picked up from installers in our US + EU checks in recent weeks. See below for a brief glimpse into our most recent conversation w/ a top 20 US resi
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Love This Biopharma Investor Sentiment Graphic From JPM
JPM's Top Ideas...
$LLY: Still positioned for Mounjaro/Zepbound upside - Favorite growth idea
$ABBV: Multiple expansion as we move past Humira erosion - Favorite value idea
$MRK: Attractive mix of topline/EPS upside and new
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JPM on $ADYEY || "checks over the past month revealed that, though competitive pressures in the US are greater, Adyen’s US advantage remains, even if the gap to the competition has narrowed."
JPM's TMT EU sector specialist also ran a buyside survey on Adyen that conveyed how out
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Some of RBC's 2024 TMT predictions...
Internet/Software: Cloud optimizations will continue in 2024, though to a lesser degree than 2023
> Going into 2024, we think $AMZN and $MSFT are better positioned than $GOOGL on views of likely consumption increases and strong GenAI
Updated V2 "Best of Best" List [80% through my review]
Reminder that this list is based upon underlying biz fundamentals, channel checks & some technical KPIs. Inclusion on this list is based upon companies that I view as having attractive upside on a 2-year basis.
Some of
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Dubai is something else … 360 degree infinity pools hit different
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$ENPH $SEDG | Resi Solar Industry | Updated comments after some 3Q checks w/ US-based solar installers.
The US resi solar demand environment continues to skew negatively with massive sequential dropoff's in activity in 3Q. Expectation is that this weakness carries over into
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$SEDG $ENPH | Final thoughts...
Our final checks reiterate this view of subdued demand looking out through C1Q2024. While C3Q2023 may mark the bottom (e.g. limited downside from here), lingering interest rates are preventing any upside near-term. Our proprietary survey & forum
$ENPH $SEDG | Resi Solar Industry | Updated comments after some 3Q checks w/ US-based solar installers.
The US resi solar demand environment continues to skew negatively with massive sequential dropoff's in activity in 3Q. Expectation is that this weakness carries over into
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Best of best stocks in my purview. This list is based upon underlying biz fundamentals, channel checks & some technical KPIs. I recognize that some of these stocks have likely peaked near-term but inclusion on this list is based upon companies that I view as having attractive
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$DESP | Despegar on my "best of best" below.
Take a look at my brief write up on what I consider an overlooked / undervalued LatAm travel play. Likes + shares + comments are appreciated!
Despegar is a leading online travel agency (OTA) in LatAm with ~$5B in gross bookings and
Updated V2 "Best of Best" List [80% through my review]
Reminder that this list is based upon underlying biz fundamentals, channel checks & some technical KPIs. Inclusion on this list is based upon companies that I view as having attractive upside on a 2-year basis.
Some of
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I created a dropbox link with a few of those $DESP sell side notes... DM if you want me to share with you.
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For any institutional investor that hasn't accessed BWG content in the past 6-12 months, I highly recommend signing up for a multi-week trial ahead of this upcoming earnings season. The high velocity nature of our checks between
@BWGStrategy
+
@OTRGlobal
(our sister company)
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$ADYEY | our large scale merchant channel checks suggest that Adyen’s recent move is likely overdone despite their valuation premium vs. peers. Merchants expect a TPV re-acceleration scenario to play out in FY’24 driven by improved ecommerce trends + greater penetration of
Growth should remain fairly resilient and valuation is not demanding but no path to making $ next 6-12 months so nobody wants to own it
Symptom of new market structure and increasingly impatient investors
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You can access V1 here:
I've fully launched my newsletter "The Fundamental Pulse" which highlights Fresh, High-Conviction Inflection-Centric Content from the BWG-OTR Primary Research Desk.
This will be the only time it's posted on X without delay so make sure to register to get included on my
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And that's a wrap...just dropping a quick note before the new year to say thanks for all of the support. I've been "active" here for ~4 months and am nearly at 7K followers. I learn something new from this community every day so I just wanted to give my thanks and appreciation.
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$BKNG = a well oiled machine
$BKNG = continued positive feedback from hotel mgmt operators vs. a more negative tone around $EXPE .... results this Q emphasize the divergence between the two co's
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Very nice piece from Scotiabank on $ESTC...
"We view Elastic as extremely well positioned to benefit from the tidal wave of enterprise generative AI adoption as this technology drives a major resurgence of interest in search. Elastic is uniquely positioned as a multi-modal
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$AAOI | My 4-page write up on Applied Optoelectronics (w/ embedded underlying channel checks) is being published today. We outline the feedback we've heard across our channel checks to help establish what I would consider a compelling investment case. Stock probably has another
$AAOI - new piece out next week. Think we have another multi-bagger here based upon inflecting demand dynamics for 800G and 1.6TB optical transceivers. Stay tuned.
Make sure you register for my free newsletter in order to get my thoughts in real-time:
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$AAOI - new piece out next week. Think we have another multi-bagger here based upon inflecting demand dynamics for 800G and 1.6TB optical transceivers. Stay tuned.
Make sure you register for my free newsletter in order to get my thoughts in real-time:
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$PI - wins IP battle with NXP and reaches settlement with NXP making a one-time $45MM payment to PI + annual license fee payments of $15MM. Our research suggested that Impinj's biz dynamics troughed in 3Q23, and that view has panned out quite well.
Needham's note on Impinj does
$PI revisiting after stock moves +19% w/ 3Q earnings beat, above-consensus 4Q guide | validates our channel checks we published in 2Q that suggested a sequential ramp into 2024 on the heels of WMT's RFID mandates + general improvements in RFID deployments at retailers (there was
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$CRWD - in my prior post I wrote that "valuation is less attractive as bulk of move has been realized". $PANW print may drive multi-day pressure across the cybersecurity names. That said, I'd be a buyer on any material $CRWD pullback. The backdrop is still very favorable and they
Quick review of my high conviction / deep dive posts (average perf +65%). I'll increase the frequency of my posts in Feb so keep an eye out for some of my favorite ideas/setups for 2024.
Maintain my view on $DV $DESP $SMCI $VRT $ADYEY $DG $TKO $FLYW $FWONK $PINS ... still
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On the
@chitchatstocks
podcast I called out $TTD as a winner within the ad tech ecosystem. Their recent earnings provide some nice validation to that view I shared.
Here is the transcript of what I said on the podcast...
"If I take a look at the ad tech landscape, I think the
Had the pleasure of doing a structural overview of what cookies deprecation means for the ad tech ecosystem in 2024 on the latest episode of
@chitchatmoney
... Go check it out if interested.
Fairly high level (teach in) but we do touch upon a few investable themes that should
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$ADYEY $ADYEN $PYPL || MS Fireside Chat w/ Adyen CFO at TMT 2023 Conference
A lot of what they wrote echoes the points I was highlighting around the market not fully understanding the competitive landscape back in late Sept: "the EU payments landscape is sophisticated and Adyen
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$TKO
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$WMT + $VZIO ... likely spells some trouble for $ROKU as this (1) will prove to shift ad $s away from Roku ( Vizio can now leverage Walmart's consumer data and push further into shoppable ads within CTV) (2) could lead to Roku TVs being de-emphasized within WMT (which is
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$MDB Good report on vector databases from Truist...
DM if you want the full report.
Macquarie on $MDB | "We think MongoDB is well positioned to become the go-to platform for GenAI powered application development with its Atlas Vector Search.
We think MongoDB has consolidated key functionality for generative AI applications within Atlas, making it a
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$ROKU | My thoughts + interesting note from Needham after the recent move in Roku's stock. They write about the "Top 10 ROKU Positives from Walmart Buying Vizio" below.
While I think a few of these call outs from Needham are a stretch, the recent pullback does create attractive
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GS on 3 reasons why $CRWD's platform is gaining further momentum
1. The Falcon Flex program for flexible licensing agreements reduces friction in the sales process. Introduced during the Fal.Con conference in Sep 23, Falcon Flex allows customers to increase the usage of existing
$CRWD - in my prior post I wrote that "valuation is less attractive as bulk of move has been realized". $PANW print may drive multi-day pressure across the cybersecurity names. That said, I'd be a buyer on any material $CRWD pullback. The backdrop is still very favorable and they
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$DV Great graphic on their positioning within the ad tech / digital ecosystem from
@kouroshshafi
One of my favs… good color in my other posts below.
BofA has done some initiation reports on adtech that look interesting to read $DV
(calling DoubleVerify the Moody’s of digital advertising :)
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Some of our updated views on 2023 darlings within the semi/semi equipment/data center space... Vertiv + Super Micro
$SMCI | >+25% since October and >+300% since our view turned bullish in H2'22. As I noted in the below post in Oct, buying the descending channel breakout tends to
$SMCI consistent price action once you see the downward channel breakout. Looking for $255 as signal for upward expansion move. On the core fundamental side our reads remain positive w/ the YTD ramp in demand for AI servers. Hearing about supply chain lead time improvements in
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$DESP +10% AH... stock has nearly 2x'd since my first post
$DESP | Despegar on my "best of best" below.
Take a look at my brief write up on what I consider an overlooked / undervalued LatAm travel play. Likes + shares + comments are appreciated!
Despegar is a leading online travel agency (OTA) in LatAm with ~$5B in gross bookings and
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At the
@iab
Measurement Leadership Summit today in NYC where we are discussing the findings and best practices of the research
@BWGStrategy
+
@iab
fielded to understand the real world impact of privacy legislation and signal loss on advertising, data and company practices. It’s a
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I eagerly await what proves to transpire within the TikTok influencer community if the ban proves to go through. 2024 has had no shortage of curveballs thus far.
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$TTD - The Trade Desk - on my "best of best" list as well
> While the ROKU / TTD partnership is best characterized as a strategic decision that has “taken far too long”, the tie up should unlock value for both parties and help drive incremental value across the CTV / ad tech
I've fully launched my newsletter "The Fundamental Pulse" which highlights Fresh, High-Conviction Inflection-Centric Content from the BWG-OTR Primary Research Desk.
This will be the only time it's posted on X without delay so make sure to register to get included on my
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Tyler Technologies | $TYL | ˇˇon my "best of best" list below.ˇˇ
DA Davidson agrees adding $TYL to their Best-of-Breed Bison list which highlights companies w/ strong competitive moats + exceptional financials. They've outlined a lot of the same drivers that drove my initial
Updated V2 "Best of Best" List [80% through my review]
Reminder that this list is based upon underlying biz fundamentals, channel checks & some technical KPIs. Inclusion on this list is based upon companies that I view as having attractive upside on a 2-year basis.
Some of
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Evercore's Best SMID Ideas $CPA $CNVY $ALT $INSM $LBPH $MDGL $MGNX $MIRM $PCVX $RCKT $VRDN $AMPS $STEM $BMBL $MGNI $WRBY $RGA $FWONK $FTI $KEX
I admittedly don't know a ton of these but I am a fan of $MGNI and $FWONK.
@callerycap
has mentioned $WRBY as one to potentially watch.
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DA Davidson out with a Buy rating on $OSTK.
CONCLUSION: We are reiterating our BUY rating and our price target of $85 for OSTK. Our price target is based on our sum-of-the-parts valuation, which includes $33 for its retail business, $24 for tZERO, $15 for Bitt, $2 for Medici
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Interesting Consumer Staples Crowding Analysis by UBS...
> The most crowded longs in Consumer Staples currently are $KO, $MNST, $PG, $TAP, and $HSY.
> The most crowded shorts include $BYND, $BF/B, $KHC, $K and $THS.
> Beverages | $MNST $CELH $STZ | remain the most preferred
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$DG | Dollar General is holding my primary technical target (the long-term support line at ~$103) that I've outlined previously on the heels of "positive" news flow last week as investors cheered the decision to lure the former CEO out of retirement to turn things around.
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$DV | DoubleVerify | On my "Best of Best" list and a company I consider exceptionally well positioned to outperform digital ad peers over the next 18-24 months. For those that have been following me for a while know that I've been calling out DoubleVerify as an overlooked asset
$DV | Revisiting the investment case after MS initiates DoubleVerify with an "overweight" rating... before I get into their note I want to point out that I've been a long time fan of DoubleVerify and have referred to them in the past as "an overlooked gem that warrants a second
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$TLT Ackman's tweet marked the bottom... +17% since... wild stuff
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$PI now trading @ $140. Was a high conviction long at the bottom and thesis playing out as expected. Evercore reiterates $170 PT.
$PI > update on LT idea > caught a bid at longer-term support line around $55. NT dynamics (next 3 months) are still in flux (both $PI and $ZBRA punished for Q2 prints & weaker Q3 guides) but I maintain the view that entry at these levels is warranted with 3-year investment
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$ENPH - rolling over as expected. Still think there may be further room south given the feedback we've picked up in our checks around the current demand environment.
@DisruptorStocks
Can't hate on that.
Going into earnings, one would think that $ENPH $SEDG are offsides given the recent moves but I'll need to dig a bit deeper before I stand by that statement.
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Moving forward I will start posting updates on the performance of my higher conviction ideas... so far we've seen decent price action on the majority of the deep dives I've shared over the past ~3 months.
Stay tuned for my new deep dives on $RAMP + $WOLF in the coming days.
+
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$RAMP - Cookie Deprecation & Data Clean Room Webinar Takeaways
MS on LiveRamp... "More bullish on LiveRamp's positioning and ability to capture market share as the industry prepares for and ultimately experiences the full elimination of 3rd party cookies and further embraces
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$DV - reached technical target and proceeded to get decimated. I remain a big fan of this one long-term and will post detailed analysis next week of earnings & expected 3-6 month outlook.
$DV --> Nice price action today + moving off comments @ Needham conference (Laura has DoubleVerify as one of her top picks in 2024).
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$VEEV - And here is a good summary of the investment thesis from Baird...
Don’t underestimate life sciences! The life sciences industry generates $2.0 trillion in revenues annually, with customers actively investing in technology solutions to improve drug development, time
$VEEV - we are launching new research on Veeva in the next few days; I believe the stock warrants a further look, especially heading into the upcoming print on 2/29. Veeva lagged other software names throughout 2023 so this research will help investors determine if a "catch up"
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$YOU it has become pretty convincing that Clear is not worth it.
The Clear line has moved 3-4x slower than the regular boarding line during my last 10 trips to different airports across the country
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$VEEV - we are launching new research on Veeva in the next few days; I believe the stock warrants a further look, especially heading into the upcoming print on 2/29. Veeva lagged other software names throughout 2023 so this research will help investors determine if a "catch up"
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Brief Thoughts on Utility Scale Solar Space | $NXT $ARRY $FTCI $FSLR
From our reads, the CY2024 outlook for the utility solar space has become more "uncertain" versus the more bullish tone we heard in 1H23. The moderated outlook has been driven by installation/project delays
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Dan Ives & team dust off the crystal ball and make some predictions (some bold, others consensus) for 2024.
Wedbush Top 10 Christmas Wish List for the Disruptive Tech Sector in 2024...
1. AI goes mainstream. We believe AI is the biggest transformation in the tech sector in
Updated V2 "Best of Best" List [80% through my review]
Reminder that this list is based upon underlying biz fundamentals, channel checks & some technical KPIs. Inclusion on this list is based upon companies that I view as having attractive upside on a 2-year basis.
Some of
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Nice note from Needham on the Cybersecurity space...
"Based on our recent checks, demand remained strong in 4Q23 and continues to exhibit widespread positive trends pointing to positive budget growth in CY24. There is potential for a 4Q budget flush in certain pockets, we think
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The $ELF short report is arguably one of the dumbest write ups I have ever read... and I'm glad price action reflected that today. Do better.
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