Buyside Bogey
@buysidebogey
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L/S equity HF. Mostly consumer and internet. And I’m not your brah.
Manhattan, NY
Joined April 2022
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Just when you thought $SHOP was getting closer to a bottom, Tobi appears on a podcast...
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It's 2023 and we still have ppl on here saying "gee I can't believe people pay $100 for lulu pants"
I don't care if you are not a consumer specialist, but you're living under a rock if you still are confused by this
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What’s the best explanation for why $DG has fallen apart over the past few yrs? Is it just share loss to $WMT + inflation blowing up the PnL?
Old enough to remember when this was one of the highest quality and “compounder” retail stocks
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Top notch hf managers? Rockaway Beach? Negotiating $50 to pay a kid for hard work based on their grilling experience? Gtfoh on all counts
Throwing this out there. Any 18+ college students with kitchen experience in the NYC area willing to come out and help me prep for a beach BBQ middle of next week. $150 for the day. Location is Rockaway Beach accessible by subway.
Perk is that you get to hang out with a bunch
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Everyday I see something on here and say "I can't think of anything more pathetic than someone posting this"
White boi summer is buying your gf an ostrich leather bag
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It actually is not at all what you need to know about brand valuations. It’s what you need to know about low growth, post-peak/fad brands that have saturated their core mkt and are functionally single product
What’s $DECK valuation look like? Moncler?
Canada Goose doing $1.25B in revenue, at 70% gross margins, and 150m EBIT trading at $1.15B market cap is all you need to know about consumer brand valuations right now.
Market cap is down 75% since 2019.
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Just buy “numbers going up” instead of trying to figure out what stocks are “babushka dolls”
The game is hard enough why do we need to overcomplicate and galaxy brain this stuff (other than for marketing I guess)
This is great:
Immersion Investment's ideal type of set-ups.
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$ANGI is a legit crap asset. Idk how many times I gotta say it. This is a big piece of what you own when you buy $IAC
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The more whining I see on here about dumb money, broken markets, etc just makes me respect the great “traders” over “investors” more and more. Seems those guys don’t bitch and moan (as much) and they just try to figure out how to make money on what is vs what ‘should’ be
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$MTCH holders hoping that some day, one day, Tinder users will grow again. Until then, they're not wrong just early (again) and playing the dangerous game of internet value investing
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All you dorks drooling over a HF billionaire *going to meetings* as something super special need to touch grass
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You can be an idiot or you can read and stare at a simple chart. It did hit these prices in 2021
Pershing Square' s valuation for Starbucks in 2017. They thought the company will worth 97 to 122$ in 2021. Fast forward to 2024, and is worth 72$ from 56$ at the date of valuation.
Be careful with projections, especially high growth rates
$PSH $SBUX
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Yup. Twitter folks won’t shut up about how bad chipotle is, won’t eat there anymore, etc, yet the numbers continue to paint a completely different narrative
Investing on your n=1 anecdotes in consumer continues to be a fool’s errand. And a favorite fintwit pastime.
You know I keep seeing TikToks saying Chipotle is dying because of bad orders or whatever and then I see quarterly earnings. 7% comps in 1Q on 5% transactions.
Chipotle customers must be gluttons for punishment. $CMG
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Why shouldn't I short $SNAP pre-print?
Seems crowded long now, stock up a lot recently, tends to blow up on earnings, the megas are growing so much faster and at scale so feels like very little breathing room or rev share gain opportunity for this one
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I don’t want to see your stupid PA
% returns. Show me your $ returns you hotshots (cowards)
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You can play AI and capex and GPUs or you can just by chicken wing and burrito stocks that always go up
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Too many dorks on this site, might be time to hang it up. The loser-posting on my feed is incredible. But maybe the Twitter gods are just telling me something about myself…
I went to a dinner last night where half of my table left at 830 to go back to work. It made me optimistic about the future.
Accelerate!
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A lotta ppl on here whining about how others are on vacation / not working. Have you, anon, considered also just enjoying life too or must everyone be as miserable as you?
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a very new york headline. well done.
#BREAKING
: Bill Belichick, who lost two Super Bowls to the Giants, expected to part ways with Patriots later today, reports say, as 24-year tenure ends with regular season loss to Jets
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@CCM_Brett
No bullet point on payers huh
If you’re gonna fret about an earnings print reaction, helps to focus on the KPI that’s most important for the stock (and btw that KPI is not currently saying that this is a secular grower)
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Is Athletic Greens a scam?
The IG ads/influencers/podcast ads suggest to me that there is way too much marketing magic here and probably plenty of as 'effective' cheaper stuff out there
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no, it's not. touch grass
This is like watching a dramatic, never-ending Kentucky Derby every day.
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Is $MTCH the hopiest of the hope trades in smidcap internet?
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My advice is to just get a dog. You can get your steps in, have an amazing companion, and not be a loser with a “treadmill desk”
I'm a month into my treadmill desk experiment and I'm hooked.
It's the easiest way to get more steps without thinking about it or spending much effort.
If you have a desk job I highly recommend getting one.
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Growth bros on here always pumping Adyen and value bros always pumping CVS. Well, well, well you both lose but at least misery loves company?
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Very on brand for tech folks to solely consider revenues in their valuation analyses across all industries
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periodic reminder that $ANGI is a shitco and $IAC bulls without some near-term spin catalyst are delusional
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@MadThunderdome
$BURL - prob gonna miss for the 4th consec qtr even after slashing guide, execution a mess, losing share w/ industry getting super promotional, still trading at 20x '23 P/E
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Imo the real mystery is why shorts always think they are gonna see the 20% gap down on a print, are proven wrong time and time again, yet they do not learn
One of life's great mysteries is why $TSLA does not gap down 20% every time Musk blathers on an earnings call.
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@bucketshopcap
they want the 10-K question-askers to kill time so pod analyst
#32
doesn't beat them up with gross margin mix math questions for 30 minutes
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You can’t convince me that “VCs” have informed views on “balance sheets” all of a sudden
Hearing the following from VCs:
"We think SVB balance sheet looks ok, but can't risk being wrong."
It's the loss of confidence that leads to bank runs. Not necessarily the underlying fundamentals.
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So $DG is pulling a $DIS here bringing back the CEO who basically set up the co for the current mess it's in
Stock up on lowered guide and CEO change...is this enough to finally put the bottom in?
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@bucketshopcap
Once interviewed for a gig that required trading and sending updates on a months-long paper portfolio, a model case study, and several one-offs on portfolio/positioning/idea theses based on the mock port. Firm folded as process was wrapping up. Good riddance, huge waste of time
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$TWNK selling out before the ozempic trade got even worse for packaged food. Bravo
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Is it common knowledge that $LULU had product selling thru $TJX? Was that in sell side / 3p checks?
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$FTCH 💩. Just to quickly Monday morning qb it, was the short as simple as 1- aspirational luxury datapoints have sucked, 2- China bad, 3- guiding to aggressive accel and guidance track record bad?
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Tbh the guys that sound like this are the idiots. Prob have been short on the same dumb valuation thesis while TINA, ecosystem lock, idfa ad share steal, staples re-rate, and who knows what’s next just keeps kicking them in the nuts
You have to be the dumbest fuck in dumb fuck history to pay 30x for $AAPL.
Basically nothing new on these phones and they have no growth.
Stock should be at 15x. This is so stupid.
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@TwannsWorld
Blows my mind how sticky LO capital can be despite such prolonged underperformance. Many such cases
Say what you will about HF u/p or HF allocators just chasing momo but at least capital gets pulled pretty quickly after a couple yrs of crap returns
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Ok what’s your best nyc earthquake play in the equity markets right now?
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Yeah man it’s totally crazy that car dealership work isn’t as respected as a being a doctor
Crazy how being a dealership employee is perceived as low status (relative to a doctor or lawyer), yet a GM can make more than $1M/year.
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$FIGS podcast pump and then stock is -30% in the month since. Who could've seen this coming?!
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BofA:
Crocs sales in China increased over 100% in 2Q23 and 90% in 3Q23. Rising popularity in China has been supported by a hashtag known as “dongmen” or clog followers; today, the brand has roughly 60mn “dongmen” hashtags compared to 40mn at the end of 2Q23.
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$PANW out here treating you SaaS guys like banking analysts
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Not sure when you get paid on it and HFs always want to short it, but $WSM continues to prove that it's a much better business than perceived
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Idk how many times I gotta use this gif on here. damn
on a 11 hr flight from seoul back to sf, my bf & i were reminiscing about how good it felt to be out of the country for 3 weeks and not be recognized by anyone…
until literally the moment we landed, someone in the row behind us recognized us - a great welcome back to sf! lmao
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Sell side restaurants note shows number of tiktok and instagram followers per store. $WING is low and $SHAK is high and yet WING has been a good stock and SHAK bad. Maybe the most useless chart I've seen in a while
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How many times we gotta see fintwit try to short $CMG because they all like to complain about price on this website rather than do any work on the stonk
I feel like $CMG could disappoint on earnings. GLP-1 doesn’t favour them, I have noticed several people online saying they no longer go to Chipotle due to recent price changes or lower quality.
All this is circumstantial but maybe it effects them just enough.
No position.
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We all decided to play the game but a lot of you seem to think you should be writing the rules too
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*staring into rear view mirror* Cool I got rich owning $RACE and not silly ticker lower quality automaker
If you own $RACE instead of $PAH3.DE, take your eyes off the rear-view mirror.
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@decr_martian
if you're a not-brand-new long i'm guessing you've been hoping for a reported payers growth inflection for some time now and those expects have kept getting pushed out. IMO you need reported Tinder payer growth / sustained positive net adds for stock to work, simple as that
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How do I stop my IG feed from showing pickleball content? Watch a lot of tennis stuff, but I do NOT want to see these losers dinking and doinking
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So $RH starts buying back a ton of stock and ppl think that means demand bottomed/stabilized. Oops
Release says sales will improve in coming qtrs and inflect in 1H24 but that's entirely premised on just them having new product? Seems to be a bigger demand variable here IMO
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$10 if you can guess what isn’t in his bed
my latest sleep stack:
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@eightsleep
for 68 degree bed
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@pillowcube
pillow for neck support
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@ouraring
for sleep tracking
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@PureEncaps
magnesium glycinate
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@_SportsResearch
L-theanine
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@jarrowformulas
phosphatidylserine
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@MantaSleep
blackout mask
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@coyuchi
organic
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Does Mr Porter typically run 25% off sales on new in season product this time of year? LVMH missed, think we already knew aspirational lux on shaky ground, just trying to understand if FTCH numbers going even lower
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In light of recent events (geopolitical conflict, AMZN), I again call upon our politicians to do what is right
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@x3nophan3s
the one piece of advice I'd give to young people is: do NOT take advice from a Canadian wealth mgmt analyst telling you to turn down that Pershing gig!
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@JBierne
what has to "give" is payers returning to growth and until we see that, TV remains in question. way too many value ppl losing minds on this and keep saying it's cheap (it gets cheaper), buybacks (who cares), elliott (no topline answers)
what matters for internet stocks to work?
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can't tell if this is engagement bait or just a stupid tweet? like yeah no shit someone with money either had money given to them or they earned it
Every person who became a millionaire by 30 had at least one of the following:
(1) inheritance/parental support
(2) a very high income
(3) a large income event (i.e. crypto, IPO)
If they attribute their success to anything else, they are lying.
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Looks like SHOP just announced profitability targets
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Congrats to $PLCE longs that didn't panic sell when the company was facing bankruptcy (a couple days ago).
As I've always believed, it is better to be lucky than good (or smart).
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@ChairliftCap
Finance is a weird career because everyone in it is so self-important as to believe and say stuff like this
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@neverhedgecap
I don’t know if it’s a long yet, but watching fintwit acting like vuori and alo competition based on anecdata is some novel insight only after the 40% drawdown is par for the course (and none of these guys were short)
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Do not be tempted to pivot your $MTCH thesis to "new CEO is just sandbagging / resetting expectations." Don't do it.
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Ppl want this too bad in these names, which makes me think it won’t happen. We’ll see!
It feels like $MTCH and $PYPL are one “better than feared” print away from a $NFLX and $META-type run.
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What is this? A trade for ANTS?!
Sometimes you just time things perfectly… note: this is not investment advice, but if I was a PE firm I would take out Nextdoor right quick! $kind
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$LULU and $NKE both in the doghouse. NT trends at both suck. Bull case on both is transitory/eventually get their mojo back and brands are strong and will be fine.
Why is NKE trading at such a massive premium?
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Can someone smarter than me tell me what Starboard is doing with both $GDDY and $WIX? Is there a pot’l combo here or do they just looove websites?
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@S_curvecap
@DummyCapital
The biggest issue (beyond biz complexity) is that top brands rule the roost in lux and don’t need $FTCH. It’s long-tail luxury with more fad/fashion cyclicality. Beauty already launched, was supposed to be a ‘22 driver, and isn’t moving the needle (at least yet)
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@Rebrand_As_Y
AWS 3P data, gas prices rallying, TikTok ecomm push. Welcome to another fun round of pick your AMZN bear narrative
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@modestproposal1
Niche biz > TAM-bro story > saturation fears arc. Sprinkle some leverage on and baby, you got a stew going!
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@viggy_krishnan
@S_curvecap
@DummyCapital
Yup, but industry is shifting more to DTC and it’s an industry where top brands really dominate + cont to gain share so yes shift to online is good but wholesale mix shrinking and tier 2/3 share shrinking maybe a good not great spot. FPS most interesting part of the story LT imo
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Beating a dead horse here, but for all the concerns about valuation, the two most expensive luxury companies are the only ones that beat and saw ests up/unchanged post-3Q results
Not sure what the lesson is other than maybe sometimes you do get what you pay for?
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@CDMCapital
Imagine holding on for that long when it’s been evident for many years now that it is no longer a “premier luxury brand”
This is a fashion stock. A lot of them look like this. Own them when the brand is hot and dump ‘em when the growth story/brand heat has tapped out
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While we're rightly all focused on $META today, just need to say good lord $DECK. What a monster stock.
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$SHAK disclosing closure of 3% of company-owned stores and taking a $30M charge...is that something that growth concepts do?
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What's the fundamental case for $IAC from here? Seems like bulls just want to follow Diller + SOTP, which don't seem like great theses. Yes I get the stub is cheap, but what's the value unlock now? Also Diller/Levin are rich already and hero worship isn't a thesis (1/2)
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Not having a kid that repeatedly posts the same engagement bait bullshit on twitter
UES NYC parent success formula
Get kid into Trinity
They get into Harvard
They get job at Goldman
They get into Stanford GSB
They get a job at Blackstone
What did I get wrong?
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Nothing to add to the discourse around the actual event other than THIS is what twitter was made for.
Not those office girls dancing or hawk tuah slop clogging the feed
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Elon pls stop showing me “the story of” threads where some total idiot just rehashes a Wikipedia article about some rich or famous dude
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What are the best ways - if any, long or short - to play the rise of semaglutide/ozempic via consumer stocks?
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@BazCap
@new_pied_piper
@ComebackCap
$rh timing tough rn but gonna buy back like 30% of the co + launch int’l + first new product line in yrs ramps in 2023
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there are just too many dorks on this website
Guy I know was getting ready to propose to his girlfriend, but was nervous.
He's very analytical, and reached out to many of his married friends/contacts.
After meticulous data gathering and conversations, his conclusion:
"90% sure. That's about as high as anyone gets."
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@phoenixvalue
Because Boston is boring as hell so you either get your gritty depiction or none at all
You want to see finance or tech bros (to each their own I guess)? Ok, there are much better cities for that
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Dumb take. Do most Olympic athletes get paid a lot?
Me, when I watch the Eagles: "Wow, I sure like watching when my team plays well. But you know what would make the viewing experience better for me? If Landon Dickerson was richer and got his contract extension before the game."
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get this shit off of my feed, god damn
I married a tech bro this week
I’m officially a tech wifey
Here’s the top 10 worst things about marrying a tech bro:
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Thought it easiest to write off HeyDude as a $0 and review $CROX from there. This, however, could change the story (only being slightly facetious...)
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