Ryan Henderson
@CCM_Ryan
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Podcast host @chitchatstocks // Growth & Content @finchat_io
Joined December 2019
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Burry in ‘05: Subprimes are shit. Housing will collapse.
Everybody: You’re an idiot
Burry in ‘19: $GME trades close to net cash. I’m long.
Everybody: You’re an idiot
Burry in ‘20: $TSLA isn’t worth more than all of auto combined. I’m short.
Everybody: You’re an idiot
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$GOOGL
Google Cloud Margins by quarter:
Q1 2020 - (62%)
Q2 2020 - (47%)
Q3 2020 - (35%)
Q4 2020 - (32%)
Q1 2021 - (24%)
Q2 2021 - (13%)
Q3 2021 - (13%)
Q4 2021 - (16%)
Q1 2022 - (12%)
Q2 2022 - (9%)
Q3 2022 - (10%)
Q4 2022 - (7%)
Q1 2023 - 3%
Q2 2023 - 5%
Pretty impressive
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The longer I own Spotify, the more I hate updating these 2 charts $SPOT
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If you're a PayPal $PYPL shareholder, does this chart concern you?
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For all the bargain hunters out there, here’s few good companies on sale (all % drops are from ATHs)
- $ROKU down 41%
- $TWLO down 32%
- $MTCH down 30%
- $TLRA down 29%
- $TTD down 19.5%
- $MELI down 19%
- $LULU down 18%
- $MA down 17%
- $MDB down 17%
- $CRM down 16%
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I’m intrigued by the concept of thematic investing. Building a portfolio around central themes/trends
- CTV $ROKU $TTD
- War on cash $SQ $MA $PYPL $V
- Enabling creators $SHOP $TWLO $API
- Remote work $WORK $DOCU $ZM $TEAM
- Online dating $MTCH
What other big trends are there?
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Here’s what I’ve learned after 1 week as an intern at The Motley Fool
1) Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make more money.
2) Winners win
3) Can’t borrow conviction
Thread⬇️
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This might be the greatest piece of equity research I've ever seen😂
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Today I learned...
That the I-95 express lanes are run by a publicly traded Australian toll-road operator with 50% EBITDA margins and built-in annual price escalators.
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Tomorrow our deep dive on Evolution Gaming $EVO comes out. Spoiler alert, I liked them. (A lot)
Here’s a little precursor on the financials.
- Revenue of $682M, up 53% YoY
- 59% EBITDA Margin
- 53% Operating Margin
- 51% Net Margin
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Diageo $DEO trading at its lowest EBITDA multiple in a decade
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Google Cloud Operating Margins $GOOGL
Q1 2020: (62%)
Q2 2020: (47%)
Q3 2020: (35%)
Q4 2020: (32%)
Q1 2021: (24%)
Q2 2021: (13%)
Q3 2021: (13%)
Q4 2021: (16%)
Q1 2022: (12%)
Q2 2022: (9%)
Q3 2022: (10%)
Q4 2022: (7%)
Q1 2023: 3%
Q2 2023: 5%
Q3 2023: 3%
Q4 2023: 9%
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I try to avoid company comparisons or situational pattern matching.
- $JMIA isn’t the $AMZN of Africa
- $MGNI isn’t the $TTD of the supply side
- $GME isn’t the blockbuster of gaming
Every company, management team, and situation is unique. It’s best to treat them as such.
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Someone correct me on my math here.
Nintendo’s Market Cap: $66B
Nintendo’s Net Cash Position: $18B
Nintendo’s TTM Free Cash Flow: $5.57B, up 79% YoY
Current EV/FCF = 8.6x
Guidance was ridiculously conservative like always.
What am I missing here?
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$GOOGL now down >20% from highs
Knew this thing was a shitco
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What’s the best business of all time?
I think Google might be up there
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Grab some coffee, it’s deep dive time.
The business is Procore $PCOR
Not sure I’ve ever been this excited about an investment.
Here’s why⬇️
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Some bittersweet news today.
After ~3 years of operations, we're closing Arch Capital.
Truly appreciative of everyone that supported us along the way. Here's our closing letter:
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About 3 months ago I was getting some slack for having 21% of my portfolio in $SQ at a cost basis of $46.92.
Here’s where it’s at today.
Concentration + Conviction
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Holdings as of quarter end. Would love some feedback. DMs welcome
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I get that Dropbox $DBX isn't the most innovative company in the world, but how is it not a compelling investment here?
You've got a $7 billion enterprise value with an owner-operator who is absolutely hell-bent on generating $1 billion in annual FCF next year.
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360-page presentation on the Payments Industry. Lots of good stuff in here
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I keep a running list in my phone for every time I'm impressed by a business in real life.
Here are the companies I've got so far and why I've added each one:
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$SPOT IPO (Apr. 2018) vs. now
IPO:
- 159 million MAUs
- $4.7B in revenue
- $970M in gross profit
- Market Cap: $29.5B
Now:
- 406 million MAUs
- $11B in revenue
- $2.95B in gross profit
- Market Cap: $32B
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Higher wheat prices are definitely gonna impact Tinder subs $MTCH
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I have no idea what all this $FUBO hooplah is about but I wouldn’t bet against
@Beth_Kindig
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What if I told you... there’s a company out there with
- Q1 revenue up 108% YoY
- Q1 Operating Income up 428% YoY
- Gross margins 59% vs 48% a year ago
- 30% Net Margins
- A gold mine of intellectual property
- Operating in a booming industry
Valued at an EV/Sales of 3.2x
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Wow, Coupang $CPNG acquiring Farfetch Holdings $FTCH for $500 million
Had a $25B market cap two years ago
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Anyone referring to Twitter as “big tech” clearly haven’t been shareholders
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Haven’t found a stock I thought was a home run in almost a year.
Here’s what I’m looking for:
- Durable growth
- Reasonable price
- Idiosyncratic (some distinguishable trait or advantage)
- Preferably not a large cap
- Honest management
Would love some suggestions
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Excited to announce that we’ve officially launched an investment fund, Arch Capital. (sorry, still working on the mobile layout)
Had this in the works for a while now, but here’s a little mini-thread on the details of the fund.⬇️
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Analyst: “Hey, could you maybe give us some context around the Q2 revenue guide?”
Alex Karp:
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You might want a cup of coffee for this one.
Today we’re talking nCino $NCNO
& I’ll try to explain why an EV/Sales of 42.7x might not be as bad as it looks.
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Me when the multiple doubles on a stock I own: “Winners win”
Me when someone else’s stock goes up: “It’s overvalued”
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Ok let’s run a hypothetical... We see a dramatic downturn, stock prices get cut, and you’ve got some cash on the side.
What are some resilient, digital, asset-light businesses that you’ve been waiting to get into? I’ll start
- $TEAM
- $DDOG
- $TWLO
- $MDB
- $FSLY
- $ATVI
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Hearing a lot of people selling $LVGO on the merger news.
Contrarian take... The likelihood for $TDOC to own the digital healthcare space just went through the roof.
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$MTCH Here's Match Group's excuse for not repurchasing any shares during the quarter:
"We were concerned by the high volatility and weakness in the equity markets generally in Q4 which drove ours and many others' stock prices down during the quarter."
🚩🚩🚩
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Phenomenal writeup on Dream Finders Homes $DFH
Drew really is one of the brightest young investors I’ve ever met.
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Selling stocks to avoid high taxes on selling stocks is one helluva strategy
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Yes $FB has tail risk, but it also
- Trades at an EV/OCF of ~17x
- Grew 2020 revenues at 22%
- Grew 2020 EPS at 57%
- Authorized up to $25B in share repurchases, on top of the remaining $9B
- Has $62B in cash and no LT Debt (ex. leases)
I hate it but I love it at the same time
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Feels like the Wirecard fraud really isn’t talked about enough.
Jan Marsalek was the COO. He had 6 different Austrian passports and ties to Russian intelligence.
He embezzled $2B to offshore accounts then fled the country. He’s still missing.
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$FB Hot Take: Instagram will go the way of Facebook. The experience has been so diluted down with ads, it’s unbearable. Doesn’t bode well for e-commerce entry either.
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What are some "Fallen Angel" stocks that could actually be worth revisiting?
Without doing any real work, $PTON $TWLO & $SE are a few that come to mind.
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Match Group FCF yield is at 4%
Give me one reason why $MTCH won’t grow earnings over the next few years
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Just sent out our Annual Letter. For those interested, we discuss several of our holdings.
Weighted trailing FCF Yield of the portfolio: 15.4%
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Sam Walton’s message to his grandchildren if they ever try to live too lavishly: “If you start any of that foolishness, I’ll come back and haunt you. So don’t even think about it.”
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As most people know, I’ve been harping on Nintendo a lot recently. $NTDOY
Here’s why
[THREAD]
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After today's 9% decline, British American Tobacco $BTI is trading at a ~14% shareholder yield
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“People who expect perpetual growth in real wealth on a finite earth are either mad men or economists.”
- Charlie Munger in 1999
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The active CEO (and co-founder) of $WIX has more money invested in $MNDY than his own company.
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If you haven't figured it out already, the company is Nintendo $NTDOY
They're in the midst of a massive business model shift that the street doesn't seem to be pricing in yet.
For anyone interested, this article covers it well
What if I told you... there’s a company out there with
- Q1 revenue up 108% YoY
- Q1 Operating Income up 428% YoY
- Gross margins 59% vs 48% a year ago
- 30% Net Margins
- A gold mine of intellectual property
- Operating in a booming industry
Valued at an EV/Sales of 3.2x
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Autodesk $ADSK shareholders: "Could you guys maybe relax on the stock-based compensation?"
Autodesk executive team: "How about a new Chief Sustainability Officer?"
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I've said it before, but I'll say it again.
Drew is one of the most impressive young investors I've ever met.
And this discussion on Coupang $CPNG really highlights that.
INTERVIEW: Is Coupang Stock Really The Next Amazon? w/
@Speedwell_LLC
- Thoughts on management/founder
- What brings them a competitive advantage?
- Competitive threats from Naver + Temu + AliExpress?
- Expansion into Taiwan
- What's going on with the $FTCH acquisition?
+ much
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Coronavirus accelerates the inevitable for $ROKU $ZM $TDOC $WORK $NFLX $PTON $EA $ATVI $TTWO
Who am I missing?
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Nelnet has an Education & Payments Software subsidiary that generates $100 million in EBT and grows revenue 15% year.
An exceptional business hidden in a complicated story.
$NNI
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Personal Update:
Starting next week, I'll be joining the team at
As a user of both and FinChat, I've been amazed at what they've been able to build in such a short time.
Excited to now be a part of it.
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This is insane.
Dorsey treating Block like his personal piggy bank so he can make his famous friends happy.
$SQ is completely uninvestable.
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Market: Down 5%
Stocks I own: Down 10%
Stocks I want to own: Down 2%
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Matterport is probably the most compelling SPAC I’ve ever come across.
Steep valuation, but it has 100x more spaces captured than the rest of its competitors combined.
As we talk about on the show, the business use cases for digital twins are pretty much endless.
Deep Dive: Matterport $MTTR
- Creating digital twins of physical structures
- $3.2B Enterprise Value
- 2020 Revenue of $86M, up 87% YoY
- 4.3 Million spaces under management
- E-commerce avenue?
Spotify➡️
Apple➡️
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The Q1 Letter from
@LuisVSanchez777
is a great read.
Fantastic explainer on why there’s incumbency bias in govt contracting.
And a nice breakdown on $CACI vs. $BAH
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This morning we dropped an episode on the life, lessons, and best investments of Stan Druckenmiller.
We go through his:
- 1979 Oil Bet
- 1981 Treasury Investment
- 1992 Bet Against the British Pound
- 2007 Bet on the GFC
- 2022 Nvidia Bet
& lots more.
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What’s one product that you wouldn’t hesitate to buy even if it doubled prices?
Netflix is the only one I can think of... maybe Spotify
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My best investments have come from a first hand observance of the customer value proposition.
Seeing the value from the customers side first, then digging into the business second.
What companies are meticulous about customer experience?
For me it’s $SQ $SPOT $ROKU $MTCH $EA
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If you had $10,000 to deploy tomorrow, what would your allocation look like? Asking for myself.
Here’s what I’m thinking... $SQ $ROKU $MA $SPOT $MTCH $SMLR
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Who are the 3 best CEO’s from the businesses within your portfolio?
My list would be
1. Daniel Ek, $SPOT
2. Anthony Wood, $ROKU
3. Jack Dorsey, $SQ
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Me: Insurance companies have been around for so long. $LMND will never be able to take market share.
Also me (literally Lemonade’s target customer): Damn, $5/month for renters insurance. Count me in.
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$MTCH This is what can happen when growth stalls.
Failing to recognize the lack of progress at Tinder was a big mistake on my part.
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Since it’s the last day of my Motley Fool internship, I’ve been doing a little reflecting.
Obviously learned a ton about investing, but my most obvious takeaways were about business itself.
1) Culture isn’t owned
2) Attitudes are infectious
3) Leaders have ripple effects
⬇️
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$V Visa trades at a 3.4% earnings yield right now.
One and Two year treasuries yield ~5%.
Why shouldn’t Visa just plow all its cash flow into treasuries?
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I’ll take it one step further.
You want more followers on Twitter? Here’s how it’s done...
1) Make $SE your largest holding
2) Call it the 3 headed monster over and over
3) Vigorously tweet rocketship emojis
4) Ignore all comments about valuation, regardless of merit
Need some more Twitter engagement, thinking about mindlessly tweeting tickers with with fire, eyes, and rocket ship emojis accompanied with zero analysis
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Feel like I'm running a little dry on new ideas right now.
What's a stock I should look into?
I'm open to anything
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$MNDY financial results are insane.
Growing 75% a year, while easily scaling to profitability.
10 High-Growth software stocks that finally turned profitable this year:
{Thread}
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July 2005: “Hansen’s is a great short if there ever was one.”
Stock is a ~56 bagger since.
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Dropbox $DBX just released Q1 results. Shares are up 7% after hours.
Here are some updated charts
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$ALLY is currently trading at 4.4x last 12 month EPS.
If you believe that they can generate ~3% net interest margins within 3-5 years, why wouldn’t you own this?
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I think Bom Kim might be trying a little too hard to emulate Bezos.
$CPNG
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The market: Thank god this pandemic is over. I’ll never buy another thing online again, regardless of convenience
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Wow...
@TESLAcharts
completely called it
Since not everybody knows Elon like I do, let me spell everything out:
The Washington Post is likely about to drop a deeply negative $TSLA story. As a courtesy, they probably asked him for a comment before publication. To get ahead of it, he randomly attacks $AMZN...
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What separates the great analysts from the good?
"The outstanding ones do a wonderful job of isolating the critical component of each differentiated investment idea. The less outstanding ones will throw a lot of facts at you."
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