Unsupervised Policy Turducken
@AdlerVolantis
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Xenoglossophile, Security, and a Pastrami Enthusiast; delicately a Counterforce connoisseur. Basically a document rat in closed space.
Mygeeto, Galactic Empire
Joined September 2010
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Gonna make a full thread about several practical intelligence analysis techniques and how to use them with case studies
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Sesungguhnya Paspampres adalah the real MVP di pertemuan Jokowi-Prabowo tadi
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First of all, soal masalah manner/attitude. Attitude itu penting sih, tapi kalo ada orang ngajarin attitude secara barbar dan sambil degrading (+ ngancam masa depan) dia yah orang itu mah malah lebih parah daripada orang yang gak punya attitude.
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@kentvrama
The same anak also unironically baca majalah Gatra and Tempo because the cover looks cool
I will be lynched for saying this but Gatra > Tempo
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@radjathaher
To boost intellectual diversity salah satunya adalah perbanyak think tanks biar jadi "wadah, rumah, dan alat produksi produk buat berantem" and financial sources
Sustaining and retaining intellectuals itu setengah masalah dari developing variety of intellectuals
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@Wright_T_J
@GeorgeWHerbert
@fab_hinz
@dex_eve
@ArmsControlWonk
@nktpnd
Rampage or armed Blue Sparrow or Silver Sparrow, high likely Blue Sparrow
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@NAMELESS_JSDF
At this point, I sincerely hope Toyota, Nissan, and Mitsubishi (basically all Japanese OEMs) creates armored version of civilian vehicles without actually needs 3rd party to do it
I'm aware with the regulations, but yeah, one can only hope
Imagine armored Mazda6 or Nissan Fuga
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Second of all, yang soal
#bibitunggul
. Sombong/Banggain diri adalah salah satu dari self advertisement, meskipun kontroversial (dan etis nya dipertanyakan) namun mempunyai efek besar dalam marketing. Yes, feedback nya bisa negatif/positif. Tapi coverage nya luas
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@GeorgeWHerbert
@fab_hinz
@dex_eve
@ArmsControlWonk
@nktpnd
I hope I'm wrong, but
@Aviation_Intel
once covered about Israeli two-stage ALBM (Matador or something), or it's air-launched (modified) Popeye/Delilah with some penaids
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@fathman
Hi, meskipun kita gak deket, i will partially defending you about this "hot issue". Orang yang belum kenal Fathya pasti bakal ngejudge kalo dia itu jutek + moody.
In reality sih nggak; Dia adalah orang terefisien dan well mannered di dunia nyata. Why ? I'll explain
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IMHO, the problem within this episode is not about the storyline, but the paces of character development; not flipped it, but ruined the tempo.
On the brighter side, this episode showed us the true colour of the characters, not the characters what we *initially* wanted to be
[S08E05 SPOILER ALERT:]
Daenerys did what she did because she knew King’s Landing would never give her love, only fear. And it’s NOT a messy flip of a character built over seven seasons, because the signs of her being mad/obsessed had been incrementally shown over the episodes.
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@LembagaKERIS
Kenapa 7th Fleet vs PLA (secara keseluruhan)? Kenapa gak 7th Fleet vs PLAN atau INDOPACOM vs ETC + STC or DoD vs CMC?
Kira-kira itu sudah memperhitungkan postur Flexible Deterrent Options dan Pacific Deterrence Initiative yang sudah lama berlangsung ini?
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@fathman
adalah orang baik yang mungkin kita semuanya gak mau liat dari perspektif dia. Jadi percaya diri, mau nantang argumentum ad netizen + influencer, dan berani beda itu adalah yang jarang di Indo.
Kalo mau ngajarin orang soal attitude yah setidaknya manner nya juga dijaga.
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@geftalks
@gardnerverse
@baalbuddy
Going for harem way tbh (yes, I'm a harem happy ending connoisseur)
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This is what Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan truly embodies
Thanks for the explanation guys.
And I understand that many people are requesting it.
However, I think you are missing one important point.
The restaurant has both the trademark and the rights to the restaurant, so if the restaurant chain's headquarters refuses to accept my
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@GeorgeWHerbert
@fab_hinz
@dex_eve
@ArmsControlWonk
@nktpnd
@Aviation_Intel
I think it's Rampage, air-launched version of EXTRA
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Top Ten spy movies + sub-temanya
1. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy: Counterintelligence
2. Munich: Covert Operation
3. The Good Shepherd: Counterintelligence
4. A Most Wanted Man: Counterterrorism
5. Syriana: HUMINT
.
@AdlerVolantis
film2 spionase/political thriller kesukaan gue tuh- yang nggak melulu action kayak 007. tapi justru buat kebanyakan orang malah membosankan😒 nggak ngerti film spy yang bagus mereka
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@phoenix_jz
@Am4Nobody
It depends, most of H-6 will fly blind considering huge jamming against them from CSG. Targeting CSG is going to be painful, DF-21AG is interesting, yet depending on how Beidou network survives if I&Ws are lighting up
Best estimate is H-6 is going to sweep after DF-21AG launches
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@Afutami
"Capek dan takut itu gak apa-apa, bawa nama besar itu pasti beban nya besar. Istirahat, bikin kamu bahagia sesaat, terus mulai selesain your homework satu per satu, percuma bawa nama besar tapi kamu gak happy"
-Bokap, pas dulu riset SARS di WHO
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@AzakaSekai_
"Legitimate license? What's that?"
*pushing through all odds with the misery with 4th monster can of the day*
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Kebetulan baru ada waktu, jadi kita mulai dari simple aja tapi berguna: Jenis Analisis
Gonna make a full thread about several practical intelligence analysis techniques and how to use them with case studies
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@sefkelik
Institutional wise, at least contemporary ones:
1. Brimob as Gov's primary use of force instrument to keep feudals in check
2. IPDN to produce good and functional retainers
3. Kemenkeu to allocate big budgets for provincial and regency feudals
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Disinformation and Influence Operations has been exercised for decades in Southeast Asia (especially in Indonesia, for past 5 years by potential fifth columns and external actors). But sadly, we only consider "hoax" as the main issue; it is just part of bigger scheme.
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@MrPerkwile
@kommandostore
From smuggling from maritime domain perspective, Japan used to be the biggest Coast Guard force with considerable firepower in the world before China Coast Guard spamming ships and putting 76mm cannon on their ships
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@mykokampfwagen
@globining
Ontological Himmel should be studied by ethics scholar and philosophers
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I've reached 2 Slack channels, 7 different Telegram chatgroups and channels 3 Discord rooms, and 38 tabs (and counting, possibly) on my Chrome to make sense out of the raid
Temporary conclusion, both SDF and Turkey did provide essential intels weeks ago. All big chunks of crumbs
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@inboundandhot
Ada sedikit aspek budaya dan sejarah di sini; kalo diundang ke rumah rival power struggle itu biasanya meninggal dibunuh (diracun biasanya)
Chiang juga disaranin oleh penasehat-penasehat nya untuk bunuh Mao, tapi Chiang gak mau karena berlawanan dengan nilainya
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@RealestFarzet
@Artyoxent
I think my (hopefully ex-)Basij neighbor once mentioned about this, during NYE potluck lol
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@radjathaher
if you are big, then you can focus on creating impacts and make political maneuvers
if you are small, you just need likeminded and mutually ambitious people to start the initiative
Middle-sized means you are building infrastructure and systems to run your organization
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@constructivismn
Lil bit fun fact, definisi dan penjelasan Bebas Aktif di Permenlu, RPNJP, UU Hubungan Luar Negeri, dan Hatta itu beda lol
Tapi cuma di Hatta dan RPNJP yang jelas kalo Bebas Aktif bukan netral
Mungkin padanan Bebas Aktif yang tepat adalah Strategic Autonomy
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@peck_oh
@ABeardedPanda
Oh oh the funniest things would be how National Labs like Livermore and Sandia making some outworldly designs and concepts about nuke delivery systems
And DOD just like "you guys just bat shit crazy, just chill and tell Hans and Allen to stay away from drip coffee machine"
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@phoenix_jz
@Am4Nobody
Alternatively, PLAN or PLAISF builds OTHR to allow persistent targeting, basically PLANAF's VL-CAP
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Teknik ini sebenernya banyak dipake influencer secara halus, tapi
@fathman
pakai cara yang to the point nya. Kalo ada influencer yang kritisin dia soal "banggain diri", yah dia mah hypocrite
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@Trystanto2
Tbh still amazed how he can get access as panel in FPCI's CIFP
Or there's something wrong with FPCI's vetting process? Idk
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"Perang di masa depan itu gak pake tentara lagi, tapi pake drone dan ekonomi terus cyber warfare juga"
I'm wishing that woman who said that to eat her own brain rn
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@wolalbym__nie
@isthisdata
@bcmerchant
No no, he's the Prometheus of our times
But he stole back the fire from humanity, giving back to the gods because we don't actually deserve it
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@Andika_CJ
@ErikkuRii
Bikin PMSC perlindungan KA ala Blackwater, Dawei etc kayaknya prospek bagus
CC:
@Ranggajati_
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Negara terbesar di ASEAN, anggota G20, punya SLOC bejibun + trade flows nya gede, tetanggaan sama negara-negara yang punya credible long-strike capabilities kok gak punya SRBM, MRBM, & Cruise Missile?
Bagus sih baru beli TBM, terus bisa ngembangin rudal-rudal strategis
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@NonaNinja
Attitude itu penting sih, tapi kalo kita ngajarin attitude secara barbar dan sambil degrading (+ ngancam masa depan) dia yah kita mah malah lebih parah daripada orang yang gak punya attitude.
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@abdurrahmanregi
@radjathaher
@PJalawira
@breadunderscore
So the pivotal moments are: IBRA, INDRA, Japan's credit, and EEF? Without belittling Habibie's policy of course
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Nyari tau informasi soal gebetan kita lewat IG atau google ? Itu OSINT.
Nyari tau restoran enak, pewe, dan murmer terdekat lewat Zomato/IG ? Itu OSINT.
Nyari tau jalan biar gak kena macet di Hari Senin lewat Waze ? Itu OSINT.
Kita tiap hari pake mindset/teknik OSINT dasar.
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BLUE WOMAAN
Shaikin: How Gawr Gura and VTubers could help Dodgers further tap into Japanese fan base
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Officially? Probably. But BPI, Bakin, Pusintelstrat, and BAIS + Kemlu already aware and concerned about PRC's ambition on 9DL from the 60s
Even TNI's Strategic Intelligence training manual 1970s edition (you can find it in Perpusnas) used 9DL as a case study
Indonesia pertama kali tahu soal nine-dashed line tahun 1993, pada Workshop on Managing Potential Conflicts in the South China Sea. Kala itu delegasi China mendistribusikan satu peta yang di dalamnya tercantum nine-dashed line menjorok hingga perairan Natuna.
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@peck_oh
@ABeardedPanda
Like "DEAR GOOD SIR, you need this 10 Mach nuke-powered hypersonic cruise missiles to uhh kill commies in uhhhh yes yes Rostov-o-Don because this missile just can"
Oh also don't forget about preliminary study PRIOR to feasibility study on Seabed-launched ICBM by Sandia
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It took 1.5 or 2 years for Ubël to find Land
Explained why there are 3-4 arcs before current Serie's assassination plot arc
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@GreenGU2
@LadPsycho
Secara teknis juga manga Sakamoto Days, ada karakter yang pake palu buat senjatanya wkwk
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@ThrustWR
I still remember the discussion on the impact of SM-6 in (used to be hypothetical) post-INF's strategic landscape
Someone said "China will build a new production line of missiles and suits to counter SM-6, but we can just upgrade them with couple people from Arizona to tweak'em"
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1. Understand what is normal and not normal
2. Gather counter evidence and information before deciding
3. To what extent you are right/wrong
4. New info doesn’t mean it’s automatically right/wrong
5. Always improve your analytic lines (is it still relevant? Why?)
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Indo's early insights on securitization, strategic thinking, and national interests: Ali Moertopo's Strategi Politik Nasional
His outlook on geostrategic and domestic political scene on late 90s to early 2000s is prophetic tbh
What articles are considered 'classic' in Indonesian International Relations literature - written by Indonesian scholars?
Some open-ended thread for those interested w/ Indonesian IR: 🧵
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This is such a great piece on post-conflict reintegration, give it a time to read.
Banyak orang kehilangan nyawa dalam konflik di Poso, yang terjadi sejak tahun 1998 hingga 2007. Sejumlah warga yang dulu terlibat dalam konflik tersebut memilih untuk mengenangnya dengan cara bercanda, seraya mewaspadai potensi kekerasan berikutnya.
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But yeah, the only person who can handle Methode is Genau tho
Reference: Genau's village arc
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"Who are you? A counterforce connoisseur?"
Ladies and gentlemen, new Twitter bio
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@dex_eve
I still remember when I wrote a paper about nuclear security and climate change linkage because I chugged around 2 Monsters cans in one sitting
Thought to myself "Nah, it couldn't happen right? NNSA is pretty much agile about it"
Probably they're too agile about it
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@inboundandhot
Tambahin NC3: Command, Control, and Communication nya Valery Yarynich
Sama Science of Second Artillery Corps Campaigns biar balance
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Fair winds and following seas, Dad.
You did great.
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@ValMorningstar_
An anime and manga called Golden Kamuy is rocking
The setting is about a treasure hunt by an ex-Japanese soldier and an Ainu hunter right after Russo-Japanese War
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@shashj
@NigelInkster
@PLMattis
Technically, the newly-created National Security Department of HKPF could perform the job, along side with HKETO of HKTDC
But safely assumed it's Central Government's Office for Safeguarding National Security in HK aka local MSS branch
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A landing helicopter dock design 'should replace' current amphibious assault ships says Defence Committee
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@ngahpham
"The easiest and fastest way to learn foreign language is to learn your neighbor's language, because you guys shared same environment"
The one said it never been to SEA apparently
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You are not doing anything serious until ThinkPad enters the room
Dell and HP are okay, but it's for planning and "alignment" stuffs
BREAKING: Kim Jong Un visits North Korean army command headquarters to watch exercises meant to “paralyze the enemy” and reinforce command and control structures in wartime. The Korean People’s Army practiced “all-out counterattacks” to occupy South Korea. MORE SOON
@nknewsorg
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@fifteen_199
Eh are you still going to be active around here? Tbh I like your arts and your retweets + likes here
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@PramOctavy
@wcxsgj
@lakamarta
Gonna go with proliferation one. Lacks of political willingness to do it, lacks of necessary infrastructure to do it, and lacks of doctrinal curiosity to do it
Be mindful that Soeharto discontinued Soekarno's Program Roket Strategis due to fiscal problem
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Tbh Gong Fu prep is okay, especially with pu er coming from northern part of Vietnam
Rich Chinese guy flexing his tea/cigarette collection is crazy lmao we’re not ready for this
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Food testers nya Paspampres pas nyobain lunch meal nya Jokowi-Prabowo:
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From this to this
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Disinformation is normal during big wars (WW1, WW2 etc), just because one side is doing that and another side is also doing the same in reciprocal manner, it's not exactly right or wrong; just a question of effective or not
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Soviet Intelligence Cycle, but this one is a modified-version by the Polish (EPIW)
PS: the middle cutout chart is “Collation”
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@inboundandhot
Nah iya, kalo dari sisi CCP nya sendiri, alasan Soviet mulangin alumni-alumni Whampoa balik ke China adalah buat kasih pressure ke Mao untuk gak aneh-aneh (Kang Seng yang jadi pentolan nya)
Eh malah Mao ngambil kesempatan itu untuk make alumni-alumni Whanpoa buat spearhead
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@historyogi
Tbh at this point, it's a pure skill issue with a lot of copium, than a sign of institutional fragility
But it's kinda on brand for Southeast Asia if the first will turns into the latter
SEA's history book is going to be really funny
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Never thought I would see Geometripolitika, Perang Siber Global, and Perang Geometri Antarbangsa +Fungsionalisme Siber outside Sesko, Pusjiantara, Strahan, Unhan, and Lemhanas
Is this Indonesian Realism? Or a first step towards Indonesian IR?
CC:
@rioakbar_p
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I will point 3 things for now:
1. Reforming ASEAN decision-making system is probably already laid out by the accession of AEC-DMP last year
2. It's high likely future FM is still coming from MoFA
3. PLA 2027 modernization plan is kinda complicated
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@CrudePotae
@NAMELESS_JSDF
Oh yeah Mega Cruiser, I was referring why the OEMs are not making an armored version of their civilian cars, like for example armored Alphard, L200, or Nissan Patrol
Most of their armor modifications are done by 3rd parties instead of OEMs
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Rumus ngitung completion time buat project management proyek ICBM:
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@williammudd17
@Claudio_sigit
@inboundandhot
Udah mulai balanced semenjak Seroja dan wacana Kowilhan dan Kogabopswilhan pada masa Orba
Kalo sekarang, makin modular setelah ada Kogabwilhan yang fleksibel dan skema BKO nya Brimob Merah Putih untuk internal security, tapi tetap Kodam jadi C3 untuk containment level provinsi
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Paspampres CAT pas udah pewe positioning di tempat strategis terus Jokowi-Prabowo pindah lokasi:
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@raclage
@White_Janissary
They're one of the first people who developed methodology for investigation using network analysis
Besides IRS, they're also the ones who can actually counts people who died if nuclear war happens
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@dex_eve
I'll bet railway ICBM, some unlucky people in CRS will cry and begging that undersea ICBM stations are cooler
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I think in strategic-defence sectors wise, Indonesia needs the four horsemen:
1. Prabowo (to buy, build, and develop defence infrastructure)
2. Andrew Marshall (to plan, shape, and 'systemise' policies)
3. John Boyd (hail mary on the doctrine)
4. Collin Powell (ways and when)
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@breadunderscore
@RafsAkbar
"Oh jadi kamu menyamar menjadi Megumu di pagi hari dan Zeta di sore hari karena ingin mendapatkan kepercayaan dari target ya?"
"Mendapatkan kepercayaan dari target?"
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@PJalawira
Just a friendly reminder to excels in your FPA class, and actually implements FPA techniques in your daily life so you can explain "Not surprised, but it's kinda simple yet delicate matter"
People sleeping in FPA class and it just shows, apparently
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@RealestFarzet
SAF Commando Battalion in a counter-infiltration exercise or covert ROKA 707th operator hunting North Korean saboteurs kinda vibe
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Third of all, balik ke soal "efisien dan well mannered".
@fathman
di dunia nyata emang bener bener strict dalam hal manner dan efisiensi, mungkin dia terjun ke sosmed untuk "istirahat dari dunia nyata". Dia mungkin capek untuk basa basi lagi di sosmed.
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@Gadyuka86F
@itoridayo
Zeta x Gigi x Raora x Reine for thigh stream
Anya x Bae x Gigi x Aniki x Flayon for DnD stream
Cecilia x Shiori for instrumental stream
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A friendly reminder that Gabon is not a West African country, and it's located in a central part of Africa
However, ECOWAS is likely to perceive these coups as a larger trend and could affect their members in direct and indirect manner
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For people who wants OSINT/OOSINT/OSINV/OOSINV/PAIR on Plumpang incident
Please do note to censor or crop people's face when distributing your Plumpang analysis after you finished geolocating and fixating all relevant things which related to Plumpang incident
Please be ethical
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There are some reasons why you might always find Mexicans or Colombians within a group of deployed PMSCs
This video may gives you a hint of it
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“Official Preliminary Research Report of Guidance on the Implementation of National Policy in relation to Strategic Decisive Offensive Preemptive Countermeasures” is a hella name of policy
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This is what I feel after accidentally reading both PRC PLA and non-PLA's studies on strategic stability, then interacting with them in public conferences
If you are surprised with how advanced their thoughts are, then you're out of the loop and far behind of the game
All I will contribute to the online (but which should be in print) debate about the assumptions underlying deterrence and disarmament theories is this:
If you have not read the other side's work, their best work, then you should not be saying anything about the other side. 1/3
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