Fabian Hinz
@fab_hinz
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Research Fellow Defence and Military Analysis @IISS_org Missiles. Drones. Middle East. Views are my own.
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Left: Warhead seized by the US on January 11.
Right: Warhead of an Iranian Nour anti-ship missile.
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Change the color of the Cybertruck a little and it looks like Abu 'Ilun al-Afriqi is taking a last prayer in front of his SVBIED before heading out to level some SAA base in Deir ez-Zor.
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A few quick thoughts on the alleged Houthi drone that crashed into Tel Aviv. 1/9
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Overview of the various rocket designs used by Hamas' Qassam Brigades.
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The Houthis just unveiled their new 'Palestine' ballistic missile which they claimed to have used against Eilat for the first time on June 3. A few notes on the type and the likely origin of the missile. 1/10
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The fake Hamas bomb threat Belarus released is pure gold. Subject: Allahu Akbar.
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Alleged image of Khamenei supervising strike is fake. Taken during 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition
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Difficult to miss the HQ of the Sudanese Air Force and Navy
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Geolocation of the recent Armenian missile strike on Ganja 40.701093° 46.367114°
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1. Updated chart of Hamas' rocket arsenal
2. New chart on the rockets used by Palestinian Islamic Jihad
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So Iran conducted a new satellite launch. Why is this a big deal and different from previous space launches? Thread 1/13
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Finally found Armenia's Iskander missile base (which apparently also houses Scuds) 41.003° 44.388°
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OMG, the space suit presented by Iran seems to be a children's Halloween costume (via
@arawnsley
)
رفته لباس فضانوردی هالووین خریده، ۲۰ دلار.
لوگوی ناسا رو کنده، یه پرچم ایران روش دوخته.
به عنوان دستاورد ملی داره فرو می‌کنه.
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This is fascinating. According to a new al-Jazeera documentary, Hamas frogmen retrieved artillery shells from two sunken British WW1 vessels and used the casings for rocket production.
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Shia-backed militia posing for a photograph in the town of Jurf al-Sakhar (2019 colorized)
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Alleged pic of a SAM fragment consistent with the Tor M1 close to the crash site of the Ukrainian airliner
یکی از افراد محلی این تصویر اول رو از یک قطعه داخل جوب آب در نزدیکی محل سقوط هواپیمای اوکراینی برای
@AshkanMonfared_
فرستاده که به وضوح قسمت کنترل یک موشک تور ام ۱ هست/
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Not 100% certain but this piece of debris that fell in the Jordanian city of Karek does look a lot like the remnants of an Iranian Emad missile to me.
- Serial configuration (three letters - dot - A - number) similar to Emads previously seen.
- Arrangement of cable raceway,
في مدينة الكرك القبة الحديدية الأردنية تسقط أحد الصواريخ الإيرانية المتوجهة لفلسطين المحتلة
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Egypt's fleet of Scud missiles is still operational and we now know where they are based. - Very excited to share my first Military Balance blog post for
@IISS_org
.
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Amazing, China's giant solid-fuel test stand at Lantian captured in action on Google Earth. What are the chances?
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With Iran-DPRK missile cooperation in the news, it might be a good idea to recount a pretty fascinating story. The IRGC's first Scud B shopping trip to North Korea. Thread.
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Really fascinating footage of Iran's new underground launchers.
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Extremely rare images of Iran's pre-2011 solid propellant SLV/ICBM program 'Project Ghaem.'
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New blog post: Everything you always wanted to know about the Houthi anti-ship missile arsenal.
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If reports are correct, required range and flight profile in videos would indicate use of precision-guided solid-propellant Fateh class missiles (Fateh 110, Fateh 313, Zolfaghar) with a warhead of about 500kg
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I always wondered what it would take for Westerners to embrace martyrdom operations. Apparently, it's macroeconomics. Who knew.
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Thread on the history of Iran's manned space program, which often has been treated as a joke but actually represents a serious development effort.
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Palestinian Islamic Jihad's Telegram channel announcing the use of the heavy Badr 3 rocket against Ashkelon.
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The Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Badr 3/Nafea rocket is neither particularly long-range nor that sophisticated. Yet, what is interesting about it is that it offers a rare glimpse into Iran’s role in the domestic production of rockets in Gaza. Thread.
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The computer terminals for Houthi missiles have Farsi keyboards....
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Looks like Iran delivered Shahab 3/Ghadr missiles to the Houthis. New missile named 'Toufan' shown by the Houthis today. Diameter looks much closer t the Ghadr's 1.25m than to the Qiam's 0.88m.
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Reposting my 2021 overview of Hamas' rocket arsenal. A bit dated, but still relevant.
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A quick thread on the Tondar 69, a missile that is often forgotten but played an important role in Iranian missile development.
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Thread about the riddle that is Abu Zabal Factory 91: Egypt's solid propellant missile factory.
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Left: Aftermath of a Scud strike against Aleppo.
Right: Aftermath of the missile strike against Ganja.
When looking at fancy parade pics it's often easy to forget the sheer terror that the indiscriminate use of ballistic missiles can cause.
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Zakani asks why security forces failed to detect 300 pounds of explosives smuggled inside a nuclear component that was taken out of the country for repairs.
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Confidence isn’t 100% but I think I geolocated Iran’s new solid propellant plant inaugurated back in February. Quick thread going through the data points.
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The Houthis are going underground. In 2019, the movement seems to have reactivated a Saleh-era underground facility at Hafa military base in Sanaa, which had been destroyed by coalition airstrikes back in 2015. (15.325075° 44.239581°)
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In the 1960s, the CIA paid a feticheur to place a curse on the Soviet embassy in Congo and sabotage Soviet spy recruitment.
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What type of cruise missile is Iran using in its attack on Israel? The most likely candidate is the IRGC-developed Paveh / 351 which has the range to hit Israel from Iran. The missile (in different versions) has also been provided to the Yemeni Houthis and the Iraqi PMF.
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I strongly agree that the strike was designed to overcome Israeli defences and cause damage. However, I would disagree with the claim that the strike was modelled on Russian attack waves in Ukraine. 1/4
NEW | The Iranian April 13 missile-drone attack on Israel was very likely intended to cause significant damage below the threshold that would trigger a massive Israeli response. The attack was designed to succeed, not to fail. 🧵(1/9)
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The assumed Iranian Nour/Ghader/Ghadir warhead still looks a lot like the original Exocet one...
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...which of course isn't surprising since these missile are copies and derivatives of the Chinese C-802 which was a further development of the C-801 which, in turn, was China's attempt to copy the Exocet.
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According to a US intelligence official, Russia has considered giving anti-ship missiles to the Houthis. Reportedly, MBS intervened to stop the plans.
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If the US has indeed killed Soleimani it has to be the most reckless action taken by the USG since the invasion of Iraq.
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Now let's look at some of the debris. First is a video showing the UAVs piston engine. This one is clearly an Iranian Mado 275, Iran's unlicensed copy of the German Limbach L 275. 4/9
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KFC's new fried chicken ad totally looks like a missile launch out of Kermanshah
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When discussing Iranian precision-guided missile capabilities we often overlook Yemen. While the systems used have shorter ranges (100-160km), the conflict has provided Iran with the opportunity to study precision-guided missile operations in an actual combat environment.
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This is Jabal Attan Base which used to house Yemen's fleet of Scud missiles before 2015.
Geolocation of the explosion and fire in Sana'a today, in a military base on Jabal Attan.
At: 15.324785°, 44.172823°
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Houthis reveal what they claim is their locally-made hypersonic missile named Hatem 2. The missile is clearly an Iranian Kheybarshekan (right for comparison).
تفاصيل صاروخ باليستي فرط صوتي من نوع (حاطم2) - الذي يكشف عنه للمرة الأولى ومشاهد إطلاقه على سفينة (MSC SARAH V) الإسرائيلية في البحر العربي
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Seems like the incident happened at Natanz' new centrifuge assembly workshop (33.727758° 51.721314°)
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The Houthis released a video claiming to show drone, ballistic missile and cruise missile launches against. Israel. A word of caution: At least some of the footage is repackaged archival imagery such as the Sammad launch below.
عمليات مشتركة للقوة الصاروخية اليمنية وسلاح الجو المسير على أهداف في عمق الكيان الإسرائيلي في فلسطين المحتلة.
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Microsoft's Azure face verification is a really amazing tool for OSINT purposes. Take these pictures of the Supreme Leader's 2007 visit to Shahid Mahallati Industrial Group. I had a faint suspicion about one of the guys in the audience...
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So it's possible we are seeing a slightly more capable Sammad version here. For the Houthis, increasing the UAV range would be quite attractive as it would allow them to strike targets further away, fly routes evading enemy defenses and attack from unexpected angles. 9/9 END
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I know that rocket tests can be partially successful but this is still funny.
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A quick thread on a pretty unique Iranian weapons system: Iran's HESA Karrar anti-aircraft suicide drone.
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On a different note, it's also the first ballistic missile I have ever seen with a Keffiyeh nose cone. 10/10
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A very large Egyptian underground facility built in the last decade near Suez and featuring a total of 27 tunnel entrances. 30.024076° 32.232969°
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Now that California is officially part of the Resistance, would it (theoretically) be possible to ship us a Qiam or two? Asking for a friend.
Californians are a long-suffering victim of Washington's oppression, as so many other nations in the world.
Stop spending their tax dollars to incite hatred around the world. They want to build bridges with their money, not walls.
#Calexit
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Quick thread on the alleged Shahed production site identified by the US in the Special Economic Zone of Alabuga in Tatarstan 55.821215° 52.051971°
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Image of the F-5E made operational again by the Houthis. Note the Houthi logo on the front.
تصویری نزدیک از پرواز جنگنده اف۵ یمنی در جريان برگزاری رژه 21 سپتامبر
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Interesting facility 30km East of Tehran with what appears to be four covered tunnel entrances. Purpose of the site is unclear.
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Algeria seems to have taken delivery of Chinese Wing Loong II UAVs with one example visible at Ain Oussera Airbase in mid-May.
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Houthi spokesman:
- 73 US/UK strikes against targets in Sanaa, Hodeidah, Taiz, Hajjah, and Saada
- 5 soldiers killed, 6 injured
- Policy of blocking Israeli ships/ships heading to Israel will continue
- Attacks will not go unpunished
- Houthis won't hesitate to target 'sources
بيانٌ صادرٌ عنِ القواتِ المسلحةِ اليمنية
بسمِ اللهِ الرحمنِ الرحيم
قال تعالى: {فَمَنِ ٱعۡتَدَىٰ عَلَیۡكُمۡ فَٱعۡتَدُوا۟ عَلَیۡهِ بِمِثۡلِ مَا ٱعۡتَدَىٰ عَلَیۡكُمۡۚ وَٱتَّقُوا۟ ٱللَّهَ وَٱعۡلَمُوۤا۟ أَنَّ ٱللَّهَ مَعَ ٱلۡمُتَّقِینَ } صدق الله العظيم
أقدمَ العدوُّ الأمريكيُّ
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And it's time for more Scud history! Here's the story of how Iran began a Scud B reverse-engineering effort and ended up buying a factory from the DPRK. Thread.
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In general, Houthi claims are a mixed bag. Sometimes they are accurate, sometimes they are exaggerated, sometimes they are just straight-up fabrications. In general, their factual claims have to be taken with a much bigger grain of salt than Iran's or Lebanese Hezbollah's. 3/9
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The engine mount itself shows some interesting similarities to the Houthis' Sammad 3 long-range UAV. These include a relatively thick stabilizer/skid extruding vertically from the fuselage as well as what looks like a smooth transition to a V-tail. 5/9
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So was that a very, very lucky hit or did we just see the first use of precision-guided munitions from Gaza?
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The Palestine is a precision-guided solid propellant missile. This alone is quite noteworthy. So far, the ballistic missiles used by the Houthis against Israel appear to all have been less advanced liquid propellant missiles without terminal guidance. 2/10
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You might wanna double-check with a native speaker before writing stuff on your military facilities.
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Yes, Iran has proven extremely reluctant to directly enter the current conflict. However, I would caution that Zahedi being part of the core ,family‘ might change the equation when it comes to potential retaliation.
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Joint investigation by
@AuroraIntel
and me. Last weekend, a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis at Dhahran seems to have impacted in an open field, less than half a mile away from Aramco worker housing. Thread
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So what are we looking at here? It's difficult to say for certain but I'd say there is a good case to be made that it's a Sammad version. The Sammad is the Houthi's standard long-range strike drone and has already been used in several attacks against Israel. 7/9
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In case anyone is looking for a last-minute Christmas present for me, Iran has released a Fakhrizadeh stamp.
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Me, after my fifth beer at a party trying to explain why the sabotage of Iranian nuclear facilities is only a temporary solution.
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Fascinating imagery of Hezbollah armor apparently including both operational types (T-55, T-62, T-72 etc.) and historic vehicles (T-34, Sherman-based MakMat mortar carrier, Alvis Saladin, etc.).
Thread of newly released unofficial photos of Hezbullah's motorized units.
Part 1
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First launch video. Missile looks like one of the newer Emad versions to me. Second one might be Emad or a Ghadr version (basically same as Emad but without precision guidance). Liquid propellant turbopump screech at 1:14.
Video from launch site of Iranian ballistic missiles yesterday.
Part one.
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The wing has a high aspect ratio and features relatively small ailerons. One can also see that what we are dealing with is a pretty big UAV. Again, very reminiscent of the Sammad versions we have seen. 6/9
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Engine seems to be a standard Scud model. So it's almost certain that a system derived from the Iranian Qiam was used for the strike.
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Found another cast for the Hollywood movie on the Iranian revolution that I am secretly planning.
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So it just a standard Sammad that was lucky and got through or a new version? Not entirely sure but the one thing I find notable is the use of a Mado 275 engine. Most Sammads I have seen seemed to use the less powerful DLE 170. 8/9
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Thread on Iran's very first missile base and first missile tunnel: the Shahid Montazeri Garrison near Kermanshah. 34.482781° 47.010240°
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Short thread on the institutional framework of Iran's solid propellant SLV effort and the interesting questions posed by the new Zoljanah SLV as well as the Qased SLV.
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Iranian state TV mentions that the Fateh 110 has been supplied to Hezbollah in large numbers and then implies that the Lebanese group has also received Khalij-e Fars anti-ship ballistic missiles.
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Thought the somewhat lackluster unveiling of Germany's new space command today needed some Iranian-style editing.
Nochmal: Die Bedrohungen sind real. Auch im Weltraum gilt es deshalb unsere Sicherheit zu verteidigen. Mit unserem neuen
#Weltraumkommando
können wir Satelliten überwachen oder gefährlichen Weltraumschrott beobachten. Das ist in einer digitalisierten Welt wichtig.
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