Fabian Hinz
@fab_hinz
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Personal account. Missiles. Drones. Middle East.
Berlin
Joined October 2012
Left: Warhead seized by the US on January 11. Right: Warhead of an Iranian Nour anti-ship missile.
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Change the color of the Cybertruck a little and it looks like Abu 'Ilun al-Afriqi is taking a last prayer in front of his SVBIED before heading out to level some SAA base in Deir ez-Zor.
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A few quick thoughts on the alleged Houthi drone that crashed into Tel Aviv. 1/9
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Overview of the various rocket designs used by Hamas' Qassam Brigades.
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The Houthis just unveiled their new 'Palestine' ballistic missile which they claimed to have used against Eilat for the first time on June 3. A few notes on the type and the likely origin of the missile. 1/10
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The fake Hamas bomb threat Belarus released is pure gold. Subject: Allahu Akbar.
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Alleged image of Khamenei supervising strike is fake. Taken during 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition
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Shahroud was both involved in the mass production of missile boosters (Kheybarshekan and Fattah 1) as well as in the IRGC's ICBM hedging effort. Destruction of the central casting building should impede these programs substantially.
According to sentinel, it appears the reports of explosions in Shahrud were true. Wow.
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That is correct. Quick thread on what we know about the al-Safira facility.
Outside Al-Safira lies one of the most sensitive military facilities in the region, where missiles were once fitted with chemical weapons. Imagine the intel bonanza happening in the rear as facility after facility is abandoned. Lots of evidence for war crimes tribunals too.
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Difficult to miss the HQ of the Sudanese Air Force and Navy
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Geolocation of the recent Armenian missile strike on Ganja 40.701093° 46.367114°
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1. Updated chart of Hamas' rocket arsenal.2. New chart on the rockets used by Palestinian Islamic Jihad
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So Iran conducted a new satellite launch. Why is this a big deal and different from previous space launches? Thread 1/13
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Apparently, the TIECO factory in Shamsabad (35.3223° 51.2677°) struck by Israel has worked on the design and development of mixers for high-viscosity materials since 1991/92 and manufactured concrete mixers. Wonder whether they also produced or repaired solid-propellant mixers.
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Finally found Armenia's Iskander missile base (which apparently also houses Scuds) 41.003° 44.388°
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New video showing Iran's preparations for the October 1 strike inside an underground facility. The footage includes both Ghadr missiles and what appear to be either Kheybarshekan or Fattah 1 missiles.
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Ukraine just struck the solid propellant rocket motor factory 'Kamensky Plant.' We featured this site in our recent analysis noting that the plant was undergoing significant expansion tied to Russia's efforts to boost missile production.
Удар ракетами по виробничому майданчику ФКП "Комбінат "Камєнскій". Локація: Кам'янск-Шахтинський, ростовська область. Комбінат виробляє ракетне паливо й ще у 2020 році був переведений на 12-годинні робочі зміни. оператор - 48.2996222, 40.1868895
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Shahroud’s pivotal role in the IRGC’s space and long-range hedging program is well known by now. Notably, however, in the early 2020s, the site also appears to have become central to the mass production of short and intermediate range systems. 1/5
Shahroud was both involved in the mass production of missile boosters (Kheybarshekan and Fattah 1) as well as in the IRGC's ICBM hedging effort. Destruction of the central casting building should impede these programs substantially.
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OMG, the space suit presented by Iran seems to be a children's Halloween costume (via @arawnsley ).
رفته لباس فضانوردی هالووین خریده، ۲۰ دلار. لوگوی ناسا رو کنده، یه پرچم ایران روش دوخته. به عنوان دستاورد ملی داره فرو میکنه.
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This is fascinating. According to a new al-Jazeera documentary, Hamas frogmen retrieved artillery shells from two sunken British WW1 vessels and used the casings for rocket production.
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Shia-backed militia posing for a photograph in the town of Jurf al-Sakhar (2019 colorized)
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Not 100% certain but this piece of debris that fell in the Jordanian city of Karek does look a lot like the remnants of an Iranian Emad missile to me. - Serial configuration (three letters - dot - A - number) similar to Emads previously seen. - Arrangement of cable raceway,
في مدينة الكرك القبة الحديدية الأردنية تسقط أحد الصواريخ الإيرانية المتوجهة لفلسطين المحتلة
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Alleged pic of a SAM fragment consistent with the Tor M1 close to the crash site of the Ukrainian airliner.
یکی از افراد محلی این تصویر اول رو از یک قطعه داخل جوب آب در نزدیکی محل سقوط هواپیمای اوکراینی برای@AshkanMonfared_ فرستاده که به وضوح قسمت کنترل یک موشک تور ام ۱ هست/
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Amazing, China's giant solid-fuel test stand at Lantian captured in action on Google Earth. What are the chances?
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With Iran-DPRK missile cooperation in the news, it might be a good idea to recount a pretty fascinating story. The IRGC's first Scud B shopping trip to North Korea. Thread.
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Really fascinating footage of Iran's new underground launchers.
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Extremely rare images of Iran's pre-2011 solid propellant SLV/ICBM program 'Project Ghaem.'
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New blog post: Everything you always wanted to know about the Houthi anti-ship missile arsenal.
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If reports are correct, required range and flight profile in videos would indicate use of precision-guided solid-propellant Fateh class missiles (Fateh 110, Fateh 313, Zolfaghar) with a warhead of about 500kg.
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New blog post: Russia is significantly expanding its solid-propellant production and development sites. The expansions are likely part of a larger push to increase missile production rates.
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I always wondered what it would take for Westerners to embrace martyrdom operations. Apparently, it's macroeconomics. Who knew.
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Thread on the history of Iran's manned space program, which often has been treated as a joke but actually represents a serious development effort.
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Palestinian Islamic Jihad's Telegram channel announcing the use of the heavy Badr 3 rocket against Ashkelon.
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U.S. B-2 bombers have just struck five Houthi underground facilities. If you want to learn more about the Houthis' push underground, check out our @IISS_org blog from back in April.
SecDef Lloyd Austin says tonight the use of B-2 bombers to target 5 underground Houthi weapons storage facilities shows the US' ability "to take action against these targets when necessary, anytime, anywhere."
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The Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Badr 3/Nafea rocket is neither particularly long-range nor that sophisticated. Yet, what is interesting about it is that it offers a rare glimpse into Iran’s role in the domestic production of rockets in Gaza. Thread.
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The computer terminals for Houthi missiles have Farsi keyboards.
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Looks like Iran delivered Shahab 3/Ghadr missiles to the Houthis. New missile named 'Toufan' shown by the Houthis today. Diameter looks much closer t the Ghadr's 1.25m than to the Qiam's 0.88m.
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Confidence isn’t 100% but I think I geolocated Iran’s new solid propellant plant inaugurated back in February. Quick thread going through the data points.
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Reposting my 2021 overview of Hamas' rocket arsenal. A bit dated, but still relevant.
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A quick thread on the Tondar 69, a missile that is often forgotten but played an important role in Iranian missile development.
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Thread about the riddle that is Abu Zabal Factory 91: Egypt's solid propellant missile factory.
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The Houthis are going underground. In 2019, the movement seems to have reactivated a Saleh-era underground facility at Hafa military base in Sanaa, which had been destroyed by coalition airstrikes back in 2015. (15.325075° 44.239581°)
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Left: Aftermath of a Scud strike against Aleppo. Right: Aftermath of the missile strike against Ganja. When looking at fancy parade pics it's often easy to forget the sheer terror that the indiscriminate use of ballistic missiles can cause.
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Zakani asks why security forces failed to detect 300 pounds of explosives smuggled inside a nuclear component that was taken out of the country for repairs.
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In the 1960s, the CIA paid a feticheur to place a curse on the Soviet embassy in Congo and sabotage Soviet spy recruitment.
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What type of cruise missile is Iran using in its attack on Israel? The most likely candidate is the IRGC-developed Paveh / 351 which has the range to hit Israel from Iran. The missile (in different versions) has also been provided to the Yemeni Houthis and the Iraqi PMF.
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I strongly agree that the strike was designed to overcome Israeli defences and cause damage. However, I would disagree with the claim that the strike was modelled on Russian attack waves in Ukraine. 1/4.
NEW | The Iranian April 13 missile-drone attack on Israel was very likely intended to cause significant damage below the threshold that would trigger a massive Israeli response. The attack was designed to succeed, not to fail. 🧵(1/9)
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The assumed Iranian Nour/Ghader/Ghadir warhead still looks a lot like the original Exocet one.
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. which of course isn't surprising since these missile are copies and derivatives of the Chinese C-802 which was a further development of the C-801 which, in turn, was China's attempt to copy the Exocet.
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According to a US intelligence official, Russia has considered giving anti-ship missiles to the Houthis. Reportedly, MBS intervened to stop the plans.
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If the US has indeed killed Soleimani it has to be the most reckless action taken by the USG since the invasion of Iraq.
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Now let's look at some of the debris. First is a video showing the UAVs piston engine. This one is clearly an Iranian Mado 275, Iran's unlicensed copy of the German Limbach L 275. 4/9
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KFC's new fried chicken ad totally looks like a missile launch out of Kermanshah
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This is Jabal Attan Base which used to house Yemen's fleet of Scud missiles before 2015.
Geolocation of the explosion and fire in Sana'a today, in a military base on Jabal Attan. At: 15.324785°, 44.172823°
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When discussing Iranian precision-guided missile capabilities we often overlook Yemen. While the systems used have shorter ranges (100-160km), the conflict has provided Iran with the opportunity to study precision-guided missile operations in an actual combat environment.
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Houthis reveal what they claim is their locally-made hypersonic missile named Hatem 2. The missile is clearly an Iranian Kheybarshekan (right for comparison).
تفاصيل صاروخ باليستي فرط صوتي من نوع (حاطم2) - الذي يكشف عنه للمرة الأ��لى ومشاهد إطلاقه على سفينة (MSC SARAH V) الإسرائيلية في البحر العربي
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Targeted buildings appear to be related to propellant mixing and casting. Meaning, Israel targeted a critical bottleneck in the missile production process (similar to its previous campaigns against missile production infrastructure in Syrian and Lebanon).
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Seems like the incident happened at Natanz' new centrifuge assembly workshop (33.727758° 51.721314°)
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The Houthis released a video claiming to show drone, ballistic missile and cruise missile launches against. Israel. A word of caution: At least some of the footage is repackaged archival imagery such as the Sammad launch below.
عمليات مشتركة للقوة الصاروخية اليمنية وسلاح الجو المسير على أهداف في عمق الكيان الإسرائيلي في فلسطين المحتلة.
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Microsoft's Azure face verification is a really amazing tool for OSINT purposes. Take these pictures of the Supreme Leader's 2007 visit to Shahid Mahallati Industrial Group. I had a faint suspicion about one of the guys in the audience.
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So it's possible we are seeing a slightly more capable Sammad version here. For the Houthis, increasing the UAV range would be quite attractive as it would allow them to strike targets further away, fly routes evading enemy defenses and attack from unexpected angles. 9/9 END.
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Fascinating, apparently the Masyaf site was an underground facility for producing and casting solid propellant rocket motors. First such site I have seen, apart from some more primitive Hamas ones.
DECLASSIFIED: In September 2024, before the fall of the Assad Regime, our soldiers conducted an undercover operation to dismantle an Iranian-funded underground precision missile production site in Syria. Watch exclusive footage from this historic moment.
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I know that rocket tests can be partially successful but this is still funny.
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Could not help myself.
I do suspect that in many cases where Israel struggled to intercept Houthi missiles, it likely had less to do with advanced technologies like hypersonics, decoys, or MIRVs, and more to do with poor-quality missiles disintegrating upon reentry.
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A quick thread on a pretty unique Iranian weapons system: Iran's HESA Karrar anti-aircraft suicide drone.
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On a different note, it's also the first ballistic missile I have ever seen with a Keffiyeh nose cone. 10/10
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A very large Egyptian underground facility built in the last decade near Suez and featuring a total of 27 tunnel entrances. 30.024076° 32.232969°
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Now that California is officially part of the Resistance, would it (theoretically) be possible to ship us a Qiam or two? Asking for a friend.
Californians are a long-suffering victim of Washington's oppression, as so many other nations in the world. Stop spending their tax dollars to incite hatred around the world. They want to build bridges with their money, not walls. #Calexit.
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Quick thread on the alleged Shahed production site identified by the US in the Special Economic Zone of Alabuga in Tatarstan 55.821215° 52.051971°
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Algeria seems to have taken delivery of Chinese Wing Loong II UAVs with one example visible at Ain Oussera Airbase in mid-May.
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Image of the F-5E made operational again by the Houthis. Note the Houthi logo on the front.
تصویری نزدیک از پرواز جنگنده اف۵ یمنی در جريان برگزاری رژه 21 سپتامبر
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Interesting facility 30km East of Tehran with what appears to be four covered tunnel entrances. Purpose of the site is unclear.
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Imagery showing spent missile boosters used during the attack:.Left: Either a Kheybarshekan or (less likely) a Fattah 1.Right: Either an Emad or a Ghadr
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Houthi spokesman:.- 73 US/UK strikes against targets in Sanaa, Hodeidah, Taiz, Hajjah, and Saada.- 5 soldiers killed, 6 injured .- Policy of blocking Israeli ships/ships heading to Israel will continue.- Attacks will not go unpunished.- Houthis won't hesitate to target 'sources.
بيانٌ صادرٌ عنِ القواتِ المسلحةِ اليمنية.بسمِ اللهِ الرحمنِ الرحيم.قال تعالى: {فَمَنِ ٱعۡتَدَىٰ عَلَیۡكُمۡ فَٱعۡتَدُوا۟ عَلَیۡهِ بِمِثۡلِ مَا ٱعۡتَدَىٰ عَلَیۡكُمۡۚ وَٱتَّقُوا۟ ٱللَّهَ وَٱعۡلَمُوۤا۟ أَنَّ ٱللَّهَ مَعَ ٱلۡمُتَّقِینَ } صدق الله العظيم. أقدمَ العدوُّ الأمريكيُّ
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And it's time for more Scud history! Here's the story of how Iran began a Scud B reverse-engineering effort and ended up buying a factory from the DPRK. Thread.
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In general, Houthi claims are a mixed bag. Sometimes they are accurate, sometimes they are exaggerated, sometimes they are just straight-up fabrications. In general, their factual claims have to be taken with a much bigger grain of salt than Iran's or Lebanese Hezbollah's. 3/9.
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The engine mount itself shows some interesting similarities to the Houthis' Sammad 3 long-range UAV. These include a relatively thick stabilizer/skid extruding vertically from the fuselage as well as what looks like a smooth transition to a V-tail. 5/9
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So was that a very, very lucky hit or did we just see the first use of precision-guided munitions from Gaza?.
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The Palestine is a precision-guided solid propellant missile. This alone is quite noteworthy. So far, the ballistic missiles used by the Houthis against Israel appear to all have been less advanced liquid propellant missiles without terminal guidance. 2/10
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You might wanna double-check with a native speaker before writing stuff on your military facilities.
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Yes, Iran has proven extremely reluctant to directly enter the current conflict. However, I would caution that Zahedi being part of the core ,family‘ might change the equation when it comes to potential retaliation.
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So what are we looking at here? It's difficult to say for certain but I'd say there is a good case to be made that it's a Sammad version. The Sammad is the Houthi's standard long-range strike drone and has already been used in several attacks against Israel. 7/9.
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Joint investigation by @AuroraIntel and me. Last weekend, a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis at Dhahran seems to have impacted in an open field, less than half a mile away from Aramco worker housing. Thread
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Footage from yesterday's strike shows the launch of what appear to be either Kheybarshekan 2 or Fattah 1 solid-propellant missiles.
تصاویر پهپادهای دید در شب سپاه از شلیک موشکهای ایران در عملیات سهشنبهشب
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In case anyone is looking for a last-minute Christmas present for me, Iran has released a Fakhrizadeh stamp.
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