Peter Mattis
@PLMattis
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President @JamestownTweets Ex-@CECCgov @ChinaBriefJT . Co-author - Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer: https://t.co/6yF3iMr0KF. Views still mine
United States
Joined May 2018
Here is my effort to combine several different strands of thinking about China. Thank you @evansryan202 for the opportunity: From Engagement to Rivalry: Tools to Compete with China via @TXNatSecReview
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"Regardless of your views on Trump, if you value democracy and human rights, some things are worse than giving the Trump administration a win. A victory for China in its trade conflict with the U.S. is now one of them.".
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China takeover of Hong Kong could lead to U.S. sanctions -White House
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I’m taking this seriously because this argument is being used inside and outside gov’t., so this is going to be a thread. I care less about what direction policy goes (OK, I have preferences) than I care that the US approach is based in reality. 1/30.
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One of the best articles I have seen written about Chinese espionage. China's spies are waging an intensifying espionage offensive against the United States. Does America have what it takes to stop them? @mikegiglio reports:
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This is not what I expected my first op-ed to be after I left Capitol Hill, but it needed to be said. We need to do a better job of connecting CCP words & deeds across our analysis.
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Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counter-accusations.
The Chinese Ambassador @AmbCuiTiankai just called for an investigation in the United States by the WHO into whether the coronavirus outbreak originated here. Horrendous. @cnn.
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In a busy week, I completely forgot what day it was: Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer is now officially out. The intro gives a good analytic overview, but the goal was to make a lot of data available. No more mysticism about PRC intel.
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The indictment of Linda Sun, a former NY state gov't employee contains just the pertinent facts necessary to get to the charges of acting as an unregistered agent of the PRC. But I can't help but think more may come out. 1/n.
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In case there is any doubt what this means, a United Front Work Department think tank says the solution to Hong Kong is Xinjiang: repression and reeducation to transform human nature to fit into a CCP-approved mold.
"The problems of #HongKong and that of terrorism have similar causes: lack of realistic economic opportunities and misguided ideology. Re: terrorism, China has shown the world a more effective and humane approach than that pursued by other countries."
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We can have differences of opinion on how best to deal w/ China, but its pretty clear that even basic knowledge of how to look at PRC/CCP policy is lacking. Citing a white paper as definitive statement of party's intentions?
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Reading some of the conversations today, Laszlo Ladany's ten rules of China-watching come to mind:. 1. Remember that no one living in a free society ever has a full understanding of life in a regimented society.
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HR McMaster's new @TheAtlantic article on China is one of the more astute takes from a former national security adviser. There are a number of hints about new info in USG possession that shifted policy but is not entirely public like this on Huawei:.
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An important reminder of why the Chinese Communist Party elite have a very complicated relationship with Hong Kong even with the demonstrations. Analysis | Why China’s wealthy elites have so much at stake in Hong Kong
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I'll be making a big change this week, leaving @scsp_ai to go back to @JamestownTweets where I once edited @ChinaBriefJT. Effective September 5th, I'll be the new president of The Jamestown Foundation. It will be an honor and a privilege to take the helm.
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Well, this is special. Not sure there is anything out there in public about Apple, but I seem to recall some incidents back in 2010 with Google. .
The CEOs of Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon were just asked if they believe China steals technology from U.S. firms. Cook: We haven't experienced it. Pichai: Neither have we. Zuckerberg: Yes, absolutely. Bezos: I've read that.
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Fundamental US policy issues in play with emergency ordinance in effect and Carrie Lam's interactions with Beijing. HK's special treatment based on autonomy. W/o it, whither US policy? Change or keep pretending everything can go back to the status quo? No cost-free answers.
45 MTR (underground) stations, uncountable shops and malls remain shut down on 6th October. Ever since the #HKGovt used the #EmergencyPower, Hong Kong is actually under declared martial law. #EmergencyLaw #MartialLawInHongKong #AntiMaskLaw #HongKongProtests.
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Hard not to read this as the PRC/CCP doubling down on forced labor and considering the use of Uyghur labor on a more significant scale outside of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.
Beijing has shut down a U.S. labor auditor’s local China partner, escalating a campaign to counter forced-labor allegations in Xinjiang and complicating efforts by multinationals to certify supply chains in the country. @Lingling_Wei @wsjeva @Trefor1.
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I'd expect more from Rogier. The USG said "please don't help the PLA." Companies said "then make it illegal." . USG: That will be really complicated to do with scalpel-like rules. It would be better if you made a good faith effort. Companies: Well, if it's not illegal. 1/n.
Once upon a time, we believed China would become more like us. Instead, we are becoming more like them. In this case, it's no longer believing in setting clear and predictable rules for businesses to comply with, but targeting for outcomes regardless of how they are reached.
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If you can't be bothered to read what Chinese Communist Party leaders from Mao through Xi say about their ambitions--or the documents produced by regular conferences/congresses/plenums--then at least find analysis like this from people who will:
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That quiet part out loud. again. Essentially: We had no reason to arrest Jimmy Lai’s son apart from who his father is.
CY Leung: “To say that the arrest of Jimmy Lai hinders freedom of the press is like saying that the Hong Kong government wants to stop Hong Kong people from enjoying Japanese food.” 🤔🤔🤔
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Pretty clear that the US is conducting military operations without taking into account global context and stockpiles/replenishment. This seems like precisely the kind of issue that OSD & NSC are supposed to address. Who is signing off and why? Why not conserve Tomahawks?.
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Except the Qin, Han, Song, Yuan, Ming, and Qing dynasties. "China has never been expansionary" is a fairy tale told by the CCP's Propaganda Department. Captive Nations week is coming up in July, and PL86-90 says Turkestan and Tibet were both conquered.
“There’s no reason it has to get into a war,” he said. “China has never been expansionary.” #jamiedimon
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What is unsubstantiated here? . Have Blackrock and MSCI directed US capital toward PRC companies involved in modernizing the PLA and internal security? Yes. Illegal? No. Serving US interests? No. Protecting US investors? No. Today, PRC investments should be an explicit choice.
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If there was ever a place to draw a clear, bold, flashing neon line between Chinese people and the CCP/PRC, this is it. If you can't distinguish good citizens, family members, and genuinely altruistic people from government actions, then the data is not good enough for judgment.
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This is the key point -- not the artificial timelines of lack of U.S. engagement -- "more than a decade." This is an American problem repeated over administrations. By refusing to look at CCP/PRC objectives systematically, we misunderstood what Beijing was doing in int'l orgs.
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Good piece from @joshrogin on the need to recognize Xi's purpose for meeting is quite different than the U.S. and to be wary of the PRC's legacy of empty promises for which the United States has traded away leverage.
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So, again, what has the CCP done to not be taken seriously? It has created and acted on detailed policy road maps for the last 3+ decades. The Party takes their documents seriously, why can’t we?. @orvilleschell @JohnDelury saw the consistency in 2014: End.
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Kerry/Sullivan reportedly told House leadership not to move on the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (either Senate or House version). Seems clear the talk this spring was just talk and admin is walking back. 1/n.
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Not that surprising. Czechs remember what came before and they -- unlike other countries -- keep that memory alive. They understand the concepts better than most Americans, even knowledgeable ones on China. Czech writing on communism/totalitarianism is worth reading.
Met with officials and journalists in Prague earlier this year to talk China and found these sentiments surprisingly widespread.
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We need to be able to deal with China as it is, not with what we want it to be. For many years, we had a growing gap between our assumptions and the day-to-day reality of US-China relations. A policy break was inevitable, because we did not want to face facts. 28/30.
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The consistent message from the party is that there are three main objectives:. (A) Comprehensively modernize China w/ CCP in charge.(B) (Re)Unify China.(C) Make China powerful globally. All present here: 19/30.
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Given the number of examples under each (A), (B), (C), why shouldn’t we take the CCP’s stated aims seriously? Why are we mirror-imaging a democratic system onto a Leninist party-state rather than trying to understand it on its terms? 25/30.
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If Sun was doing all that work to scrub mention of Taiwan from speeches, preventing officials from attending Taiwan-related events, etc., then I think it is worth asking what sort of business transactions or inquiries came to the governor's office that Sun derailed? 2/n.
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Also worth bearing in mind that “foreign interference” is what gives Hong Kong its special status and relationship outside PRC channels with the rest of the world. HKSARG/Beijing wants #HongKong to be special without having special responsibilities or upholding 1C2S agreements.
Bear this in mind:. The reason HKSAR “regrets” so-called “foreign interference” is because that is what they most fear. Sorry to break the news, HKSAR, but the whole human rights system is based on “foreign interference” and it is coming to get you.
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Just because the CCP’s ambitions seem to exceed their grasp at the moment doesn’t mean one can dismiss their ambitions. Today’s capabilities do not excuse avoiding the party’s ambitions for tomorrow. 26/30.
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In the last 11 months, I've heard too many stories like this. This pain doesn't go away. No finality. No answers. Being silent doesn't help, but so many are in the hope that maybe compliance frees their family. A Uyghur Man’s Letter to His Lost Mother
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In his new book, @alexjoske adds a critical dimension to our understanding of CCP influence operations and the Ministry of State Security. Fine work by an impressive analyst. Get it here:
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Open source researchers have avoided thinking about counterintelligence, despite having 25 years experience of sources on the PRC disappearing. To my knowledge, the late (and sometimes quite bonkers) Robert Steele was one of the few (only?) OSINT evangelists who cared about CI.
NEW: U.S. think-tank reports on sensitive Chinese practices — such as civil-military fusion — alarmed officials in Beijing, helping trigger a campaign to restrict overseas access to Chinese databases 🧵
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And more importantly, why did they think that China Daily was the venue for communicating with the Chinese people? It's a venue for telling the world that EU ambassadors want to cooperate with Beijing on the PRC/CCP's terms.
Even if the @ChinaDaily op-ed from EU ambassadors hadn’t been censored (with permission) it would have raised serious questions about the bloc’s approach. What is the EU hoping to achieve by adopting Beijing’s win-win, common destiny language?.
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Clever way to put pressure on CCTV/CGTN. So will the UK follow the rule of law or accept that the CCP is above the law? . 'My ordeal haunts me': UK regulator must ban Chinese state TV, says man who appeared in 'forced confession' via @hongkongfp.
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Even though I think I have a pretty fair appreciation for Beijing's paranoia about Taiwan and urge to scrub it from visibility, I still think the benefits accruing to Sun & her husband exceed what would be paid for those petty edits and scheduling issues would warrant 3/n.
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Any characterization of "Most China scholars" that puts Alice Miller, Paul Godwin, @CNA_org China Studies, @AndrewSErickson, @CCPWatch, Tim Heath, @sinopsiscz, @Anne_MarieBrady, @jmulvenon, David Shambaugh, etc. on the outside is a pretty misguided view of China-watching. 5/30.
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Whether we compete or cooperate, accommodate or confront, no policy will be sustainable if it does not squarely face the reality of what the CCP wants for China and the world. This is the baseline of where we should be in our knowledge. 27/30.
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Judgement in Oz on Huawei was: cheaper equipment now, more expensive for risk mitigation over lifetime of equipment. Consistent story in every meeting. Canberra pushed US to think more critically, not other way around.
A huge mistake. critical to the well-being of the UKs reliable critical infrastructure, critical to a secure liberal society, and critical to our Five Eyes alliance. Surpassing Cameron for strategic cataclysm. @10DowningStreet
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A few points on the Chinese Communist Party's united front work and influence-building efforts to add some context around @tombschrader thread. (1) CCP goes for medium first, then messaging; (2) exploiting businesspeople for political influence is long-running tactic. 1/7.
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I reviewed the proposal for this book years ago and have been awaiting it eagerly ever since.: Bob Suettinger is one of the best China analysts the USG ever had, and this is undoubtedly a masterpiece of forensic analysis of party history.
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Useful thread. But in the CCP's framing, the PRC has not drifted from these commitments. All of these promises were conditional. Other countries, e.g. USA, Australia, etc., have drifted from the conditions of win-win cooperation. 1/2.
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Everyone I know with views like @jgarnaut describes an intellectual journey. They began with an optimism for China's present and future; Mao's crimes condemned to the past. But encounters with the party-state created unanswered questions that nagged like paper cuts and slivers.
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"Most China Scholars. " is an appeal to authority that is useless w/o citing people. Every analyst I know who focuses on PRC/CCP policy recognizes a clear hierarchy of documents/statements that signal how authoritative they are. 4/30.
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I challenge anyone to come up with a pithier definition of united front work: "making idiots useful.".
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Worth pointing out that Chin's case among many others are discussed in Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer co-authored w/ @matthew_brazil . Lots of entries that provide an intro to many of the known PRC/CCP traditional and economic espionage cases.
I was struck by Chin's story, which I had never heard of, so I googled and ran across this 2004 (!) @frontlinepbs documentary on Chinese spying in the US. This has been a longer term problem than I had realized.
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1. HKHR&DA is about US policy toward HK, not US in HK, and treating HK differently than China. 2. China asked US to uphold 1C2S way back when. They literally asked for it. 3. Cybersecurity and Intelligence laws definitely do interfere in US internal affairs and sovereignty.
“China should pass a law interfering in US internal affairs in a similar way and watch them suffer” said a Western acquittance.
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This is how the CCP's propaganda system insinuates itself with Western partners to put out its messages through proxies who might be more acceptable to Western audiences. Thanks for yet another solid piece from David Bandurski @cnmediaproject
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(C) The party’s stated aim is to reframe international relations and global governance in particular ways at odds with UN principles, ICCPR, and UDHR. It is trying to reshape global information flows to reinforce its influence. 23/30.
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A nice thread on the absurdity of China's demands of Australia in order to have a "good" relationship.
Beijing sent a list of 14 grievances to Australia supposedly justifying its economic coercion against it. The list is revealing. It shows the PRC holds countries responsible for their free *civil societies* & serves as a template for illiberal order-building. Some thoughts: 1/.
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The CCP detained Dr. Abbas to punish an American family member for exercising her rights as an American in the United States. There is not a line that can be drawn in the Pacific, contrary to what Xi has suggested. That's just a trap to limit our vision. #FreeGulshanAbbas.
These past few weeks leading up to the 3 yr.mark of Mom's disappearance have been hellish,but I am so thankful for those who have stood beside us to walk this difficult road together. This support grants me the strength to take another step. Mom, pls hang on! #FreeGulshanAbbas
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This can be true in general, but to raise it in defense of CUSEF and Tung Chee-hwa is nonsensical and ill-informed. Tung and his foundation are tools of political struggle for the CCP. CUSEF "influence" can't be separated into benign & malign parts. A thread 1/x.
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Saying “hawk” w/ intent to discredit is just an excuse to not to read. You want to make that case for @robert_spalding fine, not entirely fair but OK. For @Anne_MarieBrady, that's calumny. At most, she is pro-NZ and wants people to see reality. Same for @RollandNadege 6/30.
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We don't give the CCP enough credit or take them seriously enough. They are not ten feet tall, but I'd put them at a good 6'4".
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"If the US will not fight the world’s largest tyranny politically, then inevitably, it will have to fight it economically, and eventually, militarily. [Preserving peace and freedom] begins by comprehending democracy’s greatest enemy, and countering it effectively" @WEI_JINGSHENG.
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Useful piece. I don't think many people realize how much the US military advantage has eroded vis a vis the PLA. A senior US intel analyst also told me that PLA military modernization "really starts to take off after 2021-22", i.e. what we've seen in the last few years is slow.
Mark Montgomery and I take a hard look at the military balance in the Asia-Pacific. @INDOPACOM @USNavy @usairforce @USArmy.
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If you want to argue party congress & plenary documents, certain kinds of speeches & essays are cheap speech, then you must make the argument. Dismissing them challenges established scholarship on how the CCP functions. A WP is cheap speech, not a party congress work report 2/30.
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I think at @Iron_Man_Actual post here is quite good: An important point is that these issues have be dealt with in the open, using public information where possible. Classification outside of natsec federal gov't is a killer of awareness and action. 5/n.
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Because of another foolish thread, I’d just like to point to this thread. The Leninist ideology we call “communism” is about power: how to acquire it, how to wield it, how to keep it, how to govern with it.
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Long time coming. Happy to see it. Its a stopgap, but .one that should have been there for a while. Hopefully it will be easy to get Hong Kongers the appropriate documentation to seek employment without huge backlogs.
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Dismissing docs as “cheap talk" has three problems. (1) Its a warped view that “most China scholars” dismiss policy docs.(2) The process for key party docs matters and is more substantial than say a State of the Union speech.(3) Domestic “propaganda” often is policy guidance 3/30.
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I’m not sure how one can avoid taking these objectives seriously, because we see the consequences of the Party’s aggressive pursuit of these objectives nearly every day at the moment. 20/30.
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Building databases of society has been CCP intelligence & united front methodology since the 1930s. Start with the broadest possible data on individuals, then filter and target them for intel & influence. We've seen this approach in USA (OPM, Anthem), Taiwan, Singapore, etc.
EXCLUSIVE: Chinese cyber attack struck at the heart of democracy with successful breach of the Electoral Commission. Ministers to officially blame superstate tomorrow with sanctions to follow. 2021 attack accessed details of 40million voters…. STORY:.
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Important article by a careful analyst. There is more danger than we think. The PLA has once again decided to do things in different ways than we would. This raises question about dual-use standards in PRC-built infrastructure. Where else has Beijing's capacity grown quietly?.
For a break from Afghanistan news, my latest in @WarOnTheRocks on the PLA's apparent use of civilian RoRo ferries & vehicle carriers to augment its amphibious assault capacity - a lack thereof having been an area of comfort re the PRC threat to Taiwan.
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For (A) one need only look at Made in China 2025, Military-Civil Fusion, focus on industrial capacity like shipbuilding, China Standards 2035, recent five-year plans, etc. 21/30.
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Do the research they did, or at least read Dan Tobin's 104 footnotes & sources therein and see where you end up: As for authority & documents, see, for example:. Finklestein's chapter in 7/30.
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Or @RollandNadege: Or @Anne_MarieBrady:. Or try the framework here: Or read back issues of @niubi Sinocism newsletter. No more excuses. What has the CCP done in the last 30 years to not be taken seriously?.
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On global order: Melanie Hart's study: Liza Tobin @TXNatSecReview: And @RollandNadege. On information flows: @rosenbergerlm article in And @He_Shumei at @ASPI_ICPC: 24/30.
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Powerful statement from lawyers in the UK concerned with the arrest of pan-democrats in Hong Kong:
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This is the correct take on the Politburo Study Session for external propaganda. Tactics shift. The CCP is flexible. Ambitions are the same: @cnmediaproject once again says it better than anyone else.
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Just a reminder that China's trajectory is contingent, not predestined. Xi's future depends on the PLA, other security services (esp. Beijing based), propaganda, and central party bureaucracy. Not to mention the other powerful families. All of those can defend Xi -- or not. 1/3.
A small contrarian grain of optimism about China. One of the ideas making the rounds is that China stands firmly with Xi, the CCP, and Huawei against the US and the trade war. I am not saying that is wrong but maybe misleading, inaccurate, or lacking necessary qualifiers 1/n.
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Singapore is fascinating:. Singaporean forces often train in Taiwan--or least previously. Yet the MSS and PLA intel are the only intel services in the world that feel like Singapore is a good place for 3rd country meetings, ie meet an American source not in PRC, not in USA.
Maybe you can argue that Singapore is not openly pro China, but Singapore is definitely tilted towards China .Singaporeans seem very upset when I call this out. But, here is another proof in my view. China is conducting the most aggressive military exercise around Taiwan,.
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This feels like there will be more to come, and, if this goes to trial, then we will end up learning quite a bit more. 4/.
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The courage and integrity of Jimmy Lai to force Hong Kong authorities into the open to show how much they resemble the CCP is remarkable. He would be devastating in front of a jury (plus he has a case), and HKSARG knows it. So, of course, Jimmy can't have it.
A Hong Kong court rejected jailed publisher Jimmy Lai ’s request to have a jury trial for his libel case against a pro-Beijing newspaper, the latest setback for the activist who suffered multiple blows in other legal battles.
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Incredibly honored to meet President Tsai again and to have such a wide ranging discussion this morning. @iingwen has been a remarkable leader in so many ways. I wish her well in whatever she chooses to do next as well as joy in some well-deserved rest after 8 yrs as president.
A warm welcome to the @GlobalTaiwan Institute delegation led by its executive director @lcrhsiao. This GTI group represents the new generation of supporters of Taiwan in the US, & your hard work helps ensure that the #Taiwan-#US friendship continues to flourish.
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Whether or not these ops are effective, the actions and the intent can't be ignored. Beijing runs no risks if there are no consequences. We won't retaliate in kind for good, value-based reasons; there is no proportional response. Instead we need link to issues Beijing cares about.
Microsoft Threat Analysis Center’s latest report notes that China is using fake social media accounts to poll U.S. voters on what divides them most to sow division and possibly influence the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in its favor.
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We have an ongoing failure to imagine how different these platforms operate when the malign actor is able to manipulate it directly from the inside rather than trying to exploit its algorithm as a user. We need rules to govern ourselves, but our laws won't keep Beijing in line.
The 4 youngest House Democrats voted against a TikTok ban because we know threats of disinformation, influence operations, and data misuse exist on all platforms, no matter who owns them. We need broad data privacy laws & social media guardrails consistent with the 1st Amendment.
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The always-sobering analysis of John Fitzgerald on "How Bob Carr became China's pawn" and the impact on Australia. Important case study in how CCP's influence works. via @FinancialReview.
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Charts like this are so misleading. More later, but quickly, PRC "support" for the World Bank is using it to fund PRC companies' projects out in the world, a source of cheap money to re-lend at higher interest, and a way to legitimize crimes against humanity in Xinjiang. 1/2.
Alastair Iain Johnston's essay on "China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Beijing's International Relations" is one of the most incisive on the subject of China's support/challenge to international order:.
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Trying to get the millions of party members to move government in the desired direction is not a trivial problem. A certain amount of transparency is necessary, so everyone knows roughly what they are supposed to do. This is why "party-building" is 1 of the 3 magic weapons 17/30.
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