Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
@yarbatman
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I invest in developing economies and study how sanctions are reshaping Iran and the world. CEO of @boursebazaar . Adjunct Prof @SAISHopkins .
Joined August 2014
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Mashallah your AirPods have made pilgrimage
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1. The Haniyeh assassination is unlikely to drag Iran into a wider war. Iranians leaders understand that Israel is achieving tactical wins in the midst of a strategic defeat.
Israel is making rash and escalatory moves because it is increasingly isolated, divided, and weak.
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1. I recently learned that although the world's largest producer of cashews is Côte d’Ivoire, the world's largest exporter of cashews is Vietnam.
Vietnam is making a fortune. Côte d’Ivoire is not.
This is a story of successful globalization and failed industrialization.
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1. China is now a more important partner than the US for Saudi Arabia's development. Chinese exports of metals, machinery, and transport equipment have crowded out US exports. Once Saudis start using Chinese cars (and planes?), there will be little market share left for the US.
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To My Sister: NEVER, EVER TAKE THE LAST PIECE OF TAHDIG OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. MY TAAROF DOES NOT EXTEND TO TAHDIG AND I WILL HAVE THE LAST PIECE NO MATTER WHAT MAMMAN SAYS ABOUT BEING A NICE BROTHER.
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1. West Asia is in a deep crisis.
We don't usually think about diverse countries like Russia, Pakistan, and Lebanon as being part of the same region.
But they are all part of West Asia, a region that is at the center of the "polycrisis"
@adam_tooze
and others have mapped.
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I have never met an Iranian who has shamed their fellow Iranians for leaving the country. Millions have.
This guy definitely doesn’t understand the fraught choices people are forced to make when confronting the state’s brutality.
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1. Coming events may prove me wrong, but I continue to believe that Iran seeks to avoid a war with Israel.
Israel may now have the pretext to take the fight to Iran, but if Iran considered a war inevitable, tonight's attack would have looked very different.
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Iran is not “getting” this money and there’s no reason to tarnish this deal.
Iran is being given permission to spend part of its reserves held abroad on food and medicine under strict US supervision.
I’m happy to talk to anyone about how this works. The details really matter!
NYT confirms Iran is getting $6-7 billion dollars for taking American hostages. That's as much as its entire military budget in 2021!
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1. Photographer Hasan Shirvani asked children in the provinces of Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan, the poorest regions of Iran, to use their bodies to communicate what they are wishing for.
Yalda wishes she had headphones so she could listen to her favorite music.
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This is Pirouz. He is four months old.
He was rejected by his mother but is doing fine now. Just 12 Asiatic Cheetahs like him remain in the wild in Iran. Everyone is rooting for him.
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My beloved aunt, Camila Batmanghelidjh, has died.
She believed that vulnerable children in Britain deserved "unrelenting love."
She was a source of inspiration, a fountain of wit, and a kaleidoscope of colour. I adored her.
I am sharing a statement from our family.
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@shashj
Why are you sure that the only, or even primary intention, of the invasion is to wipe out Hamas?
Israeli officials and thought-leaders are not limiting themselves to that aim. They talk openly about their intention to wipe out civilians and then they kill them. That's the issue.
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This is absolutely disgusting. Children in Iran don't have the medicine they need and this guy is gloating about it.
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5. It's in Iran's interest to absorb tactical defeats while Israel faces a strategic defeat.
Israel has destroyed Gaza. But as the world bears witness to a genocide, Israel is also tearing the fabric of its own society to shreds.
Consider the events at Sde Teiman...
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The Pahlavi flag being flown in a protest where the U.S. Capitol is stormed is one of the most mind-boggling and shameful things I have ever seen.
I guess anything can happen in 40 years.
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3. But now, Iranian leaders have come to understand that Netanyahu and other senior leaders in Israel are seeking a way out from the strategic defeat they face.
Their only path to victory is a wider war.
@glcarlstrom
makes an important observation here:
On the other hand, though, Haniyeh had been actively involved in the ceasefire talks. He feuded for months with Sinwar, who refused any deal. Killing Haniyeh means that an influential advocate for a ceasefire is gone and that Sinwar will, perhaps, become even more obstinate.
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Iran is a big country. You could fly from...
London➡️Amsterdam➡️Frankfurt➡️Berlin➡️Warsaw➡️Sofia➡️Rome➡️Monaco➡️Paris➡️London
...and you would have only just about traced Iran's borders.
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In July, Erfan tweeted that couldn't find medication in Iran for his father, a leukemia patient. Now a heartbreaking note:
"My dad no longer needs a single-dose drug, nor an oxygen tank, nor plateletpheresis. My dad is at peace tonight and I am the most devastated man on earth."
بابام نه دیگه داروی تکنسخهای میخواد، نه کپسول اکسیژن، نه پلاکت فرزیس. بابام امشب آروم میخوابه و من ویرانترین مرد زمینم.
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6. Insecure countries generate insecurity. That is the clear lesson from both Iran and Israel. We need to break the cycle...
But we continue to worry about forestalling a wider war, when an already catastrophic war is unfolding.
The priority should be ending the war in Gaza.
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1. This bland car is the MG5.
It's an electric vehicle and it's probably the most important car in the world right now.
The story of the MG5 shows how Chinese automakers are playing the long game and winning.
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5. By contrast, Côte d’Ivoire has failed to develop a processing industry.
The World Bank estimates that "only 7% of the processing is done in Côte d’Ivoire." Raw nuts in the shell "are exported to India or Vietnam for further value adding activities."
So much untapped value.
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Photo 1: The "click farm" from the TV show Silicon Valley.
Photos 2, 3, 4: Newly leaked images of MEK's geriatric troll army in Albania, which pollutes
#Iran
discourse. You can even see a poster of Rajavi top right in photo 3.
What an incredibly depressing, inhumane existence.
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2. The spate of Israeli attacks and assassinations may be humiliating, but Iran has repeatedly calibrated its responses to these provocations, avoiding a wider war.
In the weeks after October 7, this was because of Iran's own reluctance to bear the costs of a larger conflict.
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1. Some key context is missing in this article. Islamic customs call for speedy burials, often within 24 hours. Likely tens of people are dying daily due to
#COVID19
in Qom, Iran. Two weeks ago, authorities announced they would prepare graves in advance.
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4. The reason for this is that Vietnam has become the world's second largest cashew processor. Raw cashews are shelled and roasted in Vietnam for domestic consumption and for export.
Vietnamese processing facilities meet food safety standards set by the EU and US.
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7. A postscript to say that "strategic defeat" isn't Iranian rhetoric. It's an objective assessment.
Way back in December, the
@SecDef
publicly warned that Israel was heading for a strategic defeat because of the mounting civilian death toll in Gaza.
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Duration of the Iran-Iraq War:
2893 days
Time since the implementation of broad financial sanctions on Iran:
3156 days
In the span of just four decades, Iranians have endured both the longest conventional war and the longest economic war of the last century.
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8. This is probably the most price efficient way of meeting European and American demand for cashews today, but it is not economically beneficial for Côte d’Ivoire nor is it environmentally sound.
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When it comes to books about sanctions, we are living in a Golden Age.
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Harvesting tea in the lush mountains of Gilan, Iran.
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7. There is a good chance the cashews you bought were harvested in Côte d’Ivoire and shipped 10,500 nautical miles over two weeks to Vietnam.
Once processed, the cashews were then shipped 17,000 nautical miles over a month to the US.
The nuts literally went around the world.
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11. What the cashew story suggests is that the new discourse about deglobalization, derisking, friendshoring etc. is overshadowing the real opportunity of this moment.
Global supply chains can be retooled and redesigned in ways that help distribute prosperity more equitably.
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2. Last year, Vietnam exported $791m of cashews to the EU and $885m to the US.
Meanwhile, Côte d’Ivoire exported just $85m to the EU and $41m to the US.
But Côte d’Ivoire is the much bigger producer, with a crop yield of ~800k tonnes, compared to Vietnam's ~400k tonnes.
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4. Iran must respond to the Haniyeh assassination and there is always the risk that a miscalculation and an effort to draw new "red lines" could trigger a wider war.
But Haniyeh's death is part of a years-long pattern that reflects Iranian interests as much as Israeli ones.
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My new life goal is to publish a coffee table book on the role of flower arrangements in the politics of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
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An Iranian state investment fund buys a bankrupt pharma factory in France, “to ensure Iran can obtain medicine” as sanctions bite, does so legally and with the gratitude of French locals, and still the fund is described as a “weapon” in the headline.
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1. Sanctions have had a very significant negative effect on aviation safety in Iran.
But the idea that they contributed to the recent crash and the deaths of Raisi and Abdollahian makes little sense.
Recent reports by FT, NYT, and others taking that line miss some key details.
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When I was a kid and first realized that the country where I was born (America) did not get along with the country where my parents were born (Iran), the fact that Americans loved Moby Dick House of Kabob fascinated me and made me feel better about it all.
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@Vr42fik
Perhaps you can direct your "sincere condolences" to the Palestinian and Israeli families who have lost so much in this war.
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3. So where are all the Ivorian cashews going?
They are mostly going to Vietnam!
The value of cashew exports from Côte d’Ivoire to Vietnam will reach $1bn this year, accounting for around 80% of the trade between the two countries.
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10. The ~$800m boost in Côte d’Ivoire's exports would represent a 5% increase in total exports, whereas the loss of $800m in exports to Vietnam would be just a 0.2% decrease in Vietnam's overall exports.
Such a shift would make Côte d’Ivoire richer without making Vietnam poorer.
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1. The Iranian diaspora has long focused its advocacy on the possibility that Iran might make a sudden turn towards democracy.
This was advocacy inherently focused on bringing about a best-case scenario.
But what if a worst-case scenario is now materialising in Iran?
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1. Iranians are spending a lot of energy attacking the following:
-An Iranian-American civic group
-A paediatric cancer charity
-A German think tank
-An e-commerce company
-Journalists
-Turbans
-A pop singer
None of these things matter to the Islamic Republic or its survival.
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1. So
@adam_tooze
is right that sanctions on Russia’s central bank, freezing reserves would mean a full “financial war” similar to that waged on Iran.
But the financial war didn’t “cripple” Iran’s economy. There is always a structural adjustment.
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12. Maybe we can say that the globalization of the last few decades was too focused on supply chains (creating welfare for the consumer with the best price) when it should have been focused more on value chains (creating welfare for the producer with the best wage).
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1. An extraordinary bet from Airbus, given the risk of US secondary sanctions in the future.
Tensions prevent Boeing from investing in China. Boeing may even struggle to sell aircraft to China in the coming years.
Will the US tolerate Airbus doing this?
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13. It's useful to think about cashews because most countries can't produce them, no matter how much they might want to "deglobalize."
Some goods will still need to be imported from far away and that's ok...
...so long countries don't also import an undue share of the value.
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The IRGC is going to finish what Shapur I started.
Iran's recent attack on Israel is just a preview of what cities around the world can expect if the Iranian Regime is not stopped.
The world must designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization and sanction Iran's ballistic missile program, before it's too late.
#StopIran
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The Heat Index in Qeshm, Iran, which is just a stone's throw from Dubai, reached a terrifying 81°C yesterday.
The climate emergency is the single most important reason why the countries of the Persian Gulf need to put rivalries aside and cooperate. None can be resilient alone.
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The vast majority of Iranians believe that the US "seeks to prevent humanitarian-related products from reaching Iran."
Biden has failed to take any steps to improve access to food + medicine for ordinary Iranians. Those steps should not depend on progress on the nuclear file.
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My great uncle, Bahman Batmanghelidj, has sadly passed away. A man of "grand plans," he built the 7.5km long Tochal Telecabin, which rises from Tehran to snowy peaks at 3740m.
His ambition was inspiring to all who knew him, and also to many who did not.
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“Israel’s military estimates it has killed between 1,000 and 2,000 Hamas fighters.”
Given that the number of dead civilians in Gaza likely exceeds 20,000, the IDF has killed around 20 Palestinian civilians for every Hamas combatant.
Astonishing ratio.
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In Tabriz, Iran there is a workshop where all of the craftsmen are blind. They work together to produce brushes in various sizes, finding dignity and camaraderie in their work.
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1. It's to early to know the who, what, and why of the
#IranProtests
in detail. But we do know that these kinds of mobilizations are really common in upper-middle income countries facing economic hardship. That should be the starting-point of analysis.
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6. What does this all mean for consumers?
Let's say you go to a supermarket to buy a bag of cashews.
You look on the pack and you see "product of Vietnam," as is the case for the 365 brand cashews from Whole Foods.
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A primary school in Bastam, Iran designed by Tehran-based FEA Studio. The school is run by an Iranian non-profit as part of a large educational complex.
via
@dezeen
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Being Iranian means grappling with a lot of complicated feelings, and recently there’s been a lot of grief.
But it also means feeling a special pride when
#TeamMelli
win.
The team seemed to know that we all needed a few moments of elation after weeks of sadness. What a game…
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9. Things should be different.
Côte d’Ivoire exported ~$16bn of goods in 2022.
Vietnam's export total was *20 times* greater at ~$334bn.
Let's say that Côte d’Ivoire was able to gain just half of Vietnam's cashew export share in the EU and US and let's keep demand unchanged.
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1. Excited to share that I am starting a podcast about how sanctions are changing the world.
The Sanctions Age invites the people who understand sanctions best—scholars, lawyers, policymakers, and journalists—to explain their use and significance.
Here's a preview...
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This is a remarkable intervention if you consider what Israeli politicians have recently said about taking the war to Iran. Pahlavi implicitly welcomes a regime change invasion.
The real patriots of his father's generation, like Ardeshir Zahedi, would be appalled.
A message to the friends of the Iranian people across the Middle East
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The US never rebuilt Iraq's electricity grid after the 2003 invasion.
Today, one-third of Iraq's power depends on imports from Iran—and the Trump administration wants impose sanctions.
In 30 days, Iraqi hospitals could go dark during a global pandemic.
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My best friend just got back from his first trip to Iran. These are a few of the photos he took.
They are human portraits of a country where we both could have been born, but weren’t. A country we know, but don’t. One we claim, but that isn’t ours.
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You are an Iranian factory worker. You work long hours in poor conditions to support your family. Life is hard.
6,000 miles away there is a guy paid handsomely to find ways to kneecap your country's economy. He wants you to lose your job, your pride, maybe even your life.
Why?
“Dubowitz’s organization
@FDD
has proposed even further restrictions on how Iran spends its money as part of efforts to ensure that a future U.S. administration can’t undo measures imposed by Trump.”
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SCOOP: On the eve of
@JZarif
's arrival in Beijing,
@TankerTrackers
shows that a Chinese VLCC has loaded 2 million barrels of Iranian oil and is heading east—the first export since Trump revoked the oil waivers. China may be fighting back on US sanctions.
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@jmurtazashvili
Her name is Sevara Khodjaeva! She is a scientist at the Agency of Plant Protection and Quarantine. Here is a video that explains what the agency does.
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1. It is bizarre for Iran International to attack think tank analysts over a purported "lack of transparency."
Iran International is itself untransperant.
In five years, the network has burned through $569 million. They won't tell anyone who's footing the bill.
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China became the world's largest manufacturer of bra rings because an employee at a Taiwanese-owned factory in Xiamen painstakingly memorised the design of a European machine and sold blueprints to a bunch of entrepreneurs.
From Peter Hessler's brilliant book, Country Driving:
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Forget John Bolton, this may be the most enabling change in personnel if Trump wants to restart diplomacy with Iran and end “maximum pressure.” Mandelker is considered an unreasonable and dogmatic official by compliance officers worldwide.
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1. Trump's
#Iran
sanctions are hammering ordinary Iranians, despite the administration's assurances that humanitarian trade in food and medicine would be protected. This thread collects the recent reporting that makes clear that this administration does not care about Iranians.
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Will the five Central Asian states and Mongolia become the world's first "sanctions locked" countries?
If China is one day targeted by a major Western sanctions program, these countries won't be able to trade by road or rail without going through a sanctioned jurisdiction.
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Excited to share that I will be an Adjunct Professor at
@SAISHopkins
Europe in Bologna this fall.
I will be teaching a course titled "Sanctions and Their Effects" that explores how sanctions transform states and societies.
I'll be posting some info about the syllabus soon!
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1. A decade of sanctions have definitely made protests in Iran more frequent, but they have also made protests less likely to succeed for several reasons.
To create change, the protests triggered by the killing of
#MahsaAmini
have to overcome two huge challenges.
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1. Uzbekistan gained independence 31 years ago today. But the idea of an independent Uzbekistan is much older.
The dream began around 100 years ago and can be traced through the spectacular, and at times tragic, life of Sara Eshonturaeva, Uzbekistan's first professional actress.
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1. Women in Iran aren't protesting because of the economy, but economic power matters for their fight. Female labour force participation has fallen 5% since sanctions were reimposed. That means more than *2 million* women ceased being economically active.
That's a loss of power.
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“This cat is our Iran. The gate is the sanctions.”
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1. So much of the Iran content on twitter these days is motivated by old professional vendettas and it’s the most extraordinary waste of political energy. People are getting killed in the streets of Iran and so many tweets are about which think tank got funding from where.
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1. Today I had to read *two* articles attacking the integrity of 5 individuals whom I consider colleagues and friends. They were attacked because, as part of their work for Western think tanks, they maintained dialogue and exchanged views with Iranian officials.
It's ridiculous.
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It's astonishing how much a
#vote
cast in a US election impacts lives in Iran.
In the 11 months following Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, food prices rose 85%.
In the 11 months following Trump's sanctions on Iran's central bank, food prices rose a further 75%.
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Genuinely amazed to see someone trying to defend an air strike on a hospital.
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An absolutely heartbreaking scene. So many Iranian families have had so many private moments of sadness in recent years. This photo will resonate with millions of people.
#مهسا_امینی
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Today, inhabitants of the Alps enjoy one of the highest standards of living in the world.
But a century ago, “Alpenvolk” were devastatingly poor, seen as backwards, and even treated as a different race.
That’s a transformation that deserves more attention!
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Let's be clear—These new sanctions add no meaningful economic pressure on Iran. They are expressly intended to make it harder for Iran to justify diplomatic negotiations + harder for the US to offer sanctions relief. They are shackles on diplomacy.
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1. This is a thread collecting some of the most insightful articles and reports I've read on the likely impact of Soleimani's death.
What's clear is that however decisive it felt for Trump to order the airstrike, he does not get to decide what happens next.
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Such an indictment of the Iranian-American community that someone would make a *bomb threat* to prevent a *journalist* from speaking on a panel.
The attacks on
@NegarMortazavi
and others are totally unwarranted.
The hysteria about NIAC is becoming our community's QAnon.
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If true, this is the kind of escalation I have been worried about. We hit the Russian economy. Russia is going to hit the global economy.
We are in a really dangerous place now.
I think this is actually a bigger deal than it might seem:
Russian ministry recommends fertiliser producers halt exports - Reuters
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1. The Biden admin wants to "responsibly manage" the rivalry with China. But it's relying upon coercive policies like sanctions and export controls that are inherently unmanageable. US officials are also framing policies in ways that drive escalation.
We're on a worrying path.
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Saudi Arabia has committed:
-$100bn to India
-$100bn to UK
-$20bn to Pakistan
-$10bn to Egypt
Etc.
Total external debt is nearly 30% of GDP. FX reserves down from 95% of GDP in 2015 to 67% (~$500bn).
They simply don't have the money they are promising.
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1. There is a misunderstanding about Iran's decision to cut fuel subsidies. The move is not a knee-jerk reaction to sanctions pressure on the government budget. What Rouhani announced was what the IMF advised in its 2018 Article IV consultations. It's solid fiscal policy.
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JCPOA revival is very unlikely.
But here's what that really means—Iranians will remain subject to the strongest sanctions ever devised. People will become poorer and more isolated as the years go by.
We can't be flippant about this issue. The future is looking incredibly bleak.
The JCPOA should be killed and buried...enough is enough.
Walk away completely.
We can't negotiate with terrorists.
#MahsaAmini
#ZhinaAmini
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1. Once again, a state funeral in Iran has led to a debate about how much political support the Islamic Republic enjoys.
Here's the thing...
Participation in collective mourning is a deeply embedded cultural custom in Iran.
It's not an *inherently* political act.
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(A) 96% of Iranian FX reserves are frozen, not wiped out.
(B) Iran pays for its nuclear program in rials and its proxy activity in black market dollars. Not reserves.
(C) The only result of maximum pressure was devaluation, pushing millions of Iranians below the poverty line.
Over 96% of Iran’s foreign exchange reserves have been wiped out since we left the disastrous JCPOA. This is a direct result of our maximum pressure campaign. America is safer when the Ayatollah can’t fund its nuclear program and proxy terror.
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1. Despite Iran’s history of mass movements and widespread anger, the
#WomanLifeFreedom
protests remained small and sporadic and have now subsided.
In
@ForeignAffairs
, I explain that ordinary Iranians need economic resources to exercise their political power.
The West can help.
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These are really extraordinary scenes. If these protests are going to achieve anything, it will be because of the schoolgirls.
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