Will Thomson
@wmthomson22
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Massif Capital Founder/PM. Real asset investing in materials, energy and industrials. RT are not endorsement.
Charlotte, NC
Joined August 2015
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
New Post: The Rise of China's Solar Industry
A deep dive into how China's engineering-intensive manufacturing skills are distinct from the West's innovation skill set and crucial for product commercialization.
#Manufacturing
#RealAssets
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Copper industry may deliver 1.5 million tons from greenfield capacity in the period 2025-30, with +50% of the potential identified supply likely to hit the market after 2030. This is not on time for a green transition.
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A thread on DRC and Alphamin. I am seeing lots of random people concerned about M23 and potential violence at $AFM. 1/N
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1/ Thread on Petrobras...mostly notes from a review, unstructured presentation, but with a conclusion.
Why look at PBR: After several years of operational missteps last decade, Petrobras has looked like it was emerging as a viable turnaround story for the last few years.
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What the hell is this nonsense...there are no children with bloomberg terminals that need to be protected from profanity...why so sensitive
@TheTerminal
?
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@rajtalluri
thanks for the great call today, it was very informative, looking forward to watching you build $ENVX for many years to come. To everyone on the call thanks for contributing great questions,
@sumzero
did make a recording that will be available.
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A reader of our $ENVX report made the following comment: "Didn't Tesla also buy an Anode Technology company within the last few years? My point is it seems like there are a number of embryonic tech companies in this space. I think an OEM needs to adopt any emerging technology to
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$ENVX Update...no meaningful change to thesis but our the report was popular, so I figure the update might interest readers...Cowen had a meeting with management and the following highlights are relevent to thesis:
1) Management confirmed they expect to drive the CapEx cost of
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As always
@mjmauboussin
has produced a fascinating piece of research that every investor should read on assessing confidence in the presence of uncertainty () but as is usually the case, the bibliography is worth as much time and
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On September 27th @ 1 PM
@SumZero
and I will be interviewing $ENVX CEO
@rajtalluri
, you can register to join the conversation via the link below: If
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@BrianGitt
The energy demand of the world is sufficient and the future growth substantial enough that if you really understood the nature of the problem you would not cheer for one industry at the cost of others, we need everything from oil and gas to wind and nuclear, they will all be
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This is a well known story but it blows my mind every time I come across it…the US Forest Service has been working on an environmental impact study for the Resolution copper mine in Arizona since 2013. What are they doing??? How can anyone look at the US permitting process for
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A few thoughts on $EQX...they announced a US$150M bought deal offering 4.75% unsecured convertible senior notes due in 2028. The Notes are convertible at US$6.30 per share, representing a 20% premium to Equinox’s closing price on September 18, 2023. The proceeds will be used to
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@JulianKlymochko
Dividends might be less tax efficient but they repersent an actual return of capital to shareholders. Buybacks are mostly value agnostic continues buying programs that may or may not deliver a return depending on the stock, market sentiment, etc. No one ever lost money recieving
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Well worth listening to:
Another good one from
@marketplunger1
…although this might be a replay, I think
@CorneliaLake
description of the oil energy situation within the context of history is excellent, simple straight forward and compelling. No mention
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Moving from a world of abundance to one of scarcity…looking forward to “old economy businesses” being the new hot ticket in town, don’t think I can handle another Silicon Valley App for ordering food masquerading as innovation.
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Is it just me or do high prices at the pump not seem like crisis that the SPR was designed for?
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The twitterverse is always bubbling with unfounded $ENVX rumors, and research, that in my opinion, stretches the bounds of reasonability, but this is good news, and an assertion that it is either $AAPL or $META is very reasonable. The team continues to impress me at every turn.
Absolutely incredible achievement! $ENVX
I wonder who could possibly be the customer... I know $AAPL and $META would surely qualify as "leading California-based technology" companies... 🤔
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This was a great piece by
@UrbanKaoboy
. One thing I respect a great deal about his work is the clarity with which he seeks to understand the risks he is taking and the nature of returns he is generating. It is so important to pursue high levels of clarity on risk and return.
"History is littered with the carcasses of Beta Hitchhikers who find out that they’re actually not the Second Coming of Druckenmiller when the tide goes out."
@UrbanKaoboy
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Had the pleasure of speaking with head of business development at a major US utility recently, individual has an engineering background and spent their career on both technical and financial side of the business at a mix of traditional utilities and renewable energy developers.
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I spent last night talking with the Aussies about mining, nickel, lithium, and shorting. I should have had another cup of coffee; I was a little slow with company names, but it was a fun conversation.
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@chigrl
Starbucks will need a lot of these little toy boats to source its 800 million lbs of annual coffee bean use.
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I think $PBR over the last year makes for an interesting political risk analysis case study in equity markets. Many of you will have read the
@massifcap
take on the situation last year; for those that did not, we thought the Political Risk was too high to invest.
Others
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@ProfBillMcGuire
You are assuming the most dire outcome of a spread of possible outcomes is the the necessary outcome. The consensus of all climate research, probablistically weighted, as any number of meta studies does, yields a less dire outcome. You should think more probabilisticly .
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Why are Twitter Oil bulls and bears so confident in there predictions of oils future price? I can’t think of anyone who consistently predicts commodity price movement well, let alone oil which has more variables at play in price formation then almost anything I can think of.
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Had a great conversation with
@BillBrewsterTBB
on Lithium, Copper and the
@massifcap
short book.
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Great podcast this week by
@marketplunger1
and
@ValueSituations
Well worth listing to if you are interested in real assets.
@ValueSituations
has a solid approach.
$OCI
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The CEO of
@yara
stated that the cost to produce a ton of ammonia has increased 10-fold from $100 per ton last summer to $1,000 per ton currently. Watch out for unintended consequences in an industrial world when we fail to invest in energy of ALL kinds.
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Our 2023 Q4 letter is out! We discuss our shorting process, the current geopolitical investment context, and deep dive into the lithium market. Check it out!
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@BurggrabenH
Can anyone really afford not to have an emergency stock pile of the worlds most important resource and the resource which powers an entire economy?
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@ProfBillMcGuire
I think the most interesting question is how your propose to stop a society as currently structured (growth, consumerism, etc). Lets assume you are correct, you cannot possible think you will change every ones mind so you must assume to need to impair freedom.
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Copper has got a great medium/long-term bull case, and I think supply deficits could crop up in a meaningful way in 2H24 (could being the operative word, still have not put a probability on it), positioning is too stretched in the short term, and the fundamentals feel a bit
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$ENVX short interest is really getting up there…~40 million shares on 4.2 million in daily volume. Could get interesting for the short sellers.
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@log_phase
Thats what I thought you might be pointing to. I would respond by noting that management's discussion of the CapEx cost has historically been a discussion of the manufacturing line, whereas this agreement is for not only the manufacturing line but also "facilitization costs." I
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I had a follow up comment to my $ENVX comment that might just be me pontificating but it is what I am thinking:
Another thought I had after typing that response is: “When is the right time to invest in a manufacturing business that is focused on a new technology?” I think that
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Who are the copper experts on twitter? We got oil and gas, tin, uranium, etc experts, who are the copper experts? Is twitter missing a go to copper account?
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Is everything just a game of jump ball based on the latest fad with this guy? A few years ago, he said say all we needed was wind and solar. How did BlackRock get so big?
Every once in awhile a blind squiral finds a nut, today was Larry Finks turn.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: "The world is going to be short power, short power. And to power these data companies you cannot have just this intermittent power like wind and solar. You need dispatchable power because you can't turn off and on these data centers."
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@Josh_Young_1
this morning on a Bloomberg call had some great comments and thoughts on the oil industry, and as important really understands the strengths and shortcomings of a renewables.
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The mine is too far away from M23/Rwandan supply lines, too far away from politically valuable targets, and given the volume of material that needs to be moved to make money, not a great target for "pick your random DRC warlord" due to the logistics of operating the mine. The
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I am excited to share that I will sit down with
@AdamLundin5
at this year's Latticework
@manualofideas
conference for a Fireside Chat. Adam is the Chair of Lundin Mining ($LUN) and part of the 3rd generation of the Lundin family building businesses in metals and energy.
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I have got no comments on $ENVX, no idea what’s going on. If someone has thoughts backed up with something (not speculation) would be great to hear it.
I will say everyone should leave
@rajtalluri
alone regarding buying the stock, admittedly it is always nice to see management
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@jessefelder
CEF is the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust. In my opinion the chart is mislabeled, its not real assets to financial assets its precious metals to financial assets. Gold and Silver are but a small slice of the listed and unlisted real asset universe.
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The cost of poorly considered energy policy is borne by those who can least afford it, not only figuratively but literally…
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We underestimate Chinese economic and scientific power at our own risk.
China is a scientific/technical superpower. We should treat it accordingly.
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Inelastic Market Hypothesis reading, two papers to get you started.
I saw a video that someone posted of
@profplum99
discussing market elasticity this morning, it was a great overview fo the concept, I cannot locate the video now but he references several authors who have
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Anglo downgraded Copper supply guidance for 2024 and beyond by 200kt this morning...with Cobra likely offline for some time (I am tentitvly thinking it will restart next year around the 2nd quarter, maybe the 3rd). With strong demand in China and their fully destocked position,
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@TraderPamplona
These are the guys that make investing in mining firms one of the few industries you can still truly have an edge in relative to the competition simply by studying. They think mining is just digging a hole when you have some good drill results.
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Power demand in the NC is so high right now that Duke has instituted rolling blackouts…the frequency around which the US electrical grid needs to deploy these types of measures is a national embarrassment, hallmark of a third world country power grid in my opinion.
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Added some interesting pre-bonsai to the collection, frankly everything I own is pre-bonsai, all in need of many year development and better care then I often offer. Looking forward to working on this Itoigawa Shimpaku Juniper and Fudu Shimpaku Juniper
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Tin is an underappreciated commodity critical to advanced electronics and renewable power. Alphamin produces roughly 4% of the world's tin. We recently spoke about the firm on
@TheMarketHuddle
and $AFM announced a fantastic 1st quarter
#investing
#sustainability
#esgintegration
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@ypk
@log_phase
I did not find it particularly meaningful. I always believed the US manufacturing line was more of a science experiment than a long-term production line. I think management had hopes, which they should have, that maybe it turned into a long-term production line, but I would be
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Massif Capital will be presenting our thesis on Equinox Gold live at 3:30pm on Wednesday, looking forward to the conversation.
Best Ideas 2022 kicks off on Wednesday!
More than 50 MOI Global instructors will present their best investment ideas.
A few of the LIVE sessions will be accessible to the entire
#fintwit
community, so be sure to tune in!
Learn more at
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@marketplunger1
The reason this is hard, and the reason PE results in mining have sucked, is the timelines. It is hard to build a vehicle that allows for timelines in excess of ten years.
You really need a permanent capital base, been working on developing a structure for a few years now with
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In regards to Bisie, geography is important; the picture below is of North Kivu. The red dot is roughly where Mpama is. One of the closest towns on a main "highway" is Biruwe, and the largest city is Goma (Pink Dot). The orange dots are recorded events of violence against
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@calvinfroedge
The challenge with that thesis is you could be waiting for ever for ever and unfortunately the market can stay irrational far longer then you can stay solvent…it’s a bigger issue for short tech then it is long energy for obvious structural execution reasons.
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22/ The oil and natgas operations are worth more then the stock is currently trading for, but only if the government gets out of the way. I have little confidence they will. I like the stock at or below $7.5, but I dont think we will see it back at that level.
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Last year, for the first time, global energy transition investment equaled fossil fuels investment. This came despite a spending uptick for the latter as many regions focused on boosting energy security amid the energy crisis, sparking unprecedented market volatilities
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Is it just me or does anyone else find the state of world and equity markets at odds with each other…I don’t think I have ever been more uncomfortable and yet more incapable of pinpointing exactly what is causing the discomfort.
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Mines take an incredibly long time to build. It is worth noting that most of the time line is spent on exploration, but permitting is also time consuming. My research suggests average permitting and financing is often time far longer then the build time for most mines.
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@massifcap
1st Qtr Letter is out. We have had a solid start to the year and find our opportunity set to be robust.
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This is a massive part of the
#Lithium
story that everyone is missing. Cars are sold everywhere by everyone, not just in the US and Eurupe. The narrative in the West is not the narrative in the East.
More importantly the Chinese drive for EVs, and thus the cars they will be
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I don't know who needs to hear this but it seems like many people do. In the US, it does not matter if the president is a Republican or a Democrat, there is no evidence that Presidential actions have a direct and meaningful impact on the economy during their presidencies in a
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Problems in Copper World Continue...this one is a spring that keeps getting more and more compressed. Industry cannot respond to any growth in demand, and frankly, at least as far as FCX management indicated yesterday, can barely keep up with current demand.
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This is an important post with useful comments from other investors for anyone investing in lithium who also reads GS research on lithium. They are out to lunch on both Chinese and African Lithium production and DLE technology. Too much, too quick, work is evidence of a an
No coffee today as I spat it out reading Goldman Sachs' lithium supply table which popped up in my twitter feed.
What i find most intriguing about this table is that it states the majority of lithium supply will come from China itself, in particular internal lepidolite and
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@hkuppy
@CorneliaLake
There are still a handful of college endowments worth paying attention to, but you have got to be selective, otherwise institutions are just a pain and waste your time, there is more then enough money to put together a few $100 mil via individuals and FO…and focus on individuals
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Essential reading for anyone that is investing in batteries…science and history all in one, critical context. Don’t forget you chemistry book while reading: Long Hard Road: The Lithium-Ion Battery and the Electric Car
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@RocketPenguin75
@SalTurner3
@davidorr_31
@mcinnes_danny
@massifcap
Thanks Doug, appreciate the love.
@SalTurner3
through my fund I have 7.2% of my families net worth invested in $ENVX, I have put my hard earned money where my mouth is. The "experts" on Wall Street dont think the way I do, hence running a fund with no formal Wall Street
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The critical
#copper
question for the next 2-3 years: Which is greater, the fall in demand from the Chinese real estate sector or the growth of new demand sources (electrification, grids, EVs, AI, etc), and if greater is it sufficiently greater to offset the fall in Chinese RE.
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@TraderPamplona
A bunch of those projects assume 30k tin as their base case and they have no financing, good luck getting financing in this environment with tin well bellow 30k. Even if they could, an FID on a mine that only makes money at 30k tin is not going to happen.
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There will inevitably additions and subtractions but as 2024 starts these are the books on the top of my reading list, clearly in no particular order. Some new stuff some and some old stuff that I just never got around to.
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I still get excited for opens like today, never know what is going to be on sale and for how much.
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I got asked this week at
@manualofideas
Latticework’s what the always/forever commodity bulls get wrong…I responded that I thought they most often get the time element of commodity cycles wrong and they often execute ideas in a sloppy way (thesis is commodity price move but they
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How bad is food price inflation? Turns out to be about as bad as oil price inflation according to GS
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Thoughts on fireworks in the Copper Market this week:
The arbitrage between COMEX and LME copper prices reached a $1,000 premium on COMEX, a historically unprecedented level. Typically, the arbitrage trades at less than a $100 premium, with a one standard deviation move being
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@mcinnes_danny
I am invested in $ENVX (currently about 7% of
@massifcap
), and wrote up the company in one of (in my opinion) the better reports on the company (), but any discussion of them having market share north of 10% of any of the markets they are targeting is just
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The average Large Power Transformer (LPT) on the US Grid is 40 years old, the US imports 80% of LPTs , the only company expanding domestic manufacturing capacity is Siemens Energy ($ENR GY). Read more in the latest
@massifcap
Qtr Letter:
#realassets
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Addressing the challenge below is a key challenge to decarbonization and development. Renewables, NatGas, Oil are all part of the solution overtime for Africa.
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@WhiskyTheFox_
@BrianGitt
Wind, onshore and offshore Oil and Gas, uranium, nuclear, copper, nickel, batteries, LNG, no solar at the moment but have in the past, yup invested in all of these things…good investing is not about political ideologies or intransigent positions, it’s about price vs. value.
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I will just put this up here and leave it to all the Twitter Tin fans to comment.
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Silver outperforming gold at various points when the Fed pivots toward an easing posture. Appears a compelling portfolio allocation, even if you ready own some gold, if you think that pivot is coming soon.
#realassets
#realhedges
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Come for the investing thoughts…stay for the Bonsai…I like a value play when ever I see one, this is a very large, reasonably old Koran Boxwood, the nursery did not know what they had, $125 less 30%…10 years of training and this will be a bonsai I could sell for $1000s.
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1/14 What We Are Reading and What We Learned: We Have Been Harmonized - Life in China's Surveillance State.
Link:
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While everyone is talking about the need for six new copper mines per year (each producing 0.472 mtpa) to achieve net zero, as proposed in the new IEF report linked below, the clickbait headline misses the report's more important conclusion.
Six mines is the upside to the s/d
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Reading about electricity shortages and surging power demand due to AI and broader electrification of society recently? Might be worth hearing what an industry expert has to say.
@massifcap
just released the transcript of such a conversation:
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I have been doing a lot of work trying to understand where in the industrial economy of the West the most acute weakness to Chinese industrial overcapacity is. One thing that is clear is that Western firms continue to cut JV agreements with Chinese companies while paying lip
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@Josh_Young_1
Can some one tell me what laws SBF actually broke? I have not seen anyone detail the actual legal reasons he should be in prison, which is not to say he has not broken laws and should not be in prison, I have no idea, but I have not seen a detailed explanation.
@hkuppy
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@TedSumAtHome
@S_Mikhailovich
It was not an irrational structure, it was a structure that incentivized efficiency over resilience, and in a period of geopolitical calm and low international friction costs that makes sense. Resilience is now in vogue, or should be, due to a deglobalization/multipolarity.
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We saw it coming at
@massifcap
, and others did too (
@YellowLabLife
); Looking forward to watching
@Filo_Corp
and Josemaria get built. Congratulations to
@AdamLundin5
and the rest of the Lundin team.
#copper
#realassets
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To everyone pitching me a rare earth mine: No thank you. I don't like the permitting issues associated with the waste, and I generally don't want to participate in rare earths until after more market balance regarding China has been achieved. Until that is achieved, the industry
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Another terrific example of all the little things that go unconsidered and will hamper any orderly energy transition. Heavy-duty electric trucks are rolling out across the country. The electric grid upgrades and equipment needed to plug them in aren’t
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Why are all the talking heads assuming that Putin will pump oil as long as he gets a price above the marginal cost of production? What is this Econ 101 in which all actors are rational with no political agendas? At the moment hydrocarbons are politics by other means for Putin.
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I wish one of these politicos, all of whom have never built anything, would once acknowledge our economic debt to the oil companies (after all where would we be without them) and not just accuse them of being bad actors. And if they insist on just going after the oil companies as
My message to the UN:
This climate crisis is a fossil fuel crisis. It’s not complicated.
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I am a happy corporate colonial supervillain...if they only knew how hard life would be without the miners. Forget about your coffee shop salons where you discuss the latest post-modern critical theory-infused nonsense; we will all be too busy just trying to feed ourselves.
What are the most hated/dangerous/uninvestable, but geologically prospective, mining jurisdictions in the world?
Go👇
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1/30 This week BNEF published their 7th annual Long Term Vehicle Outlook, its a lengthy report (weighing in a 200 pages) and so I have tried to distill it down to just a few key points.
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As we recently noted in our deep dive into Chinese Solar Manufacturing () the only path forward for the US in solar is technology leadership, First Solar CEO seems to agree:
#realassets
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WSJ reports a nonpartisan bill will be introduced including a US$20/kg tax credit for US-made magnets and manufacturers sourcing 90% of their component parts could receive a US$30/kg credit. At spot that's between up to 60%NdFeB prices.
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