Jesse Felder
@jessefelder
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Founder and editor of The Felder Report and host of the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
Gleneden Beach, Oregon
Joined March 2007
'The new terms include expansive permissions requiring users to allow the company to use their data to train X's artificial intelligence models while also making users liable for as much as $15,000 in damages if they use the platform too much.'
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'The NFT market is collapsing. Sales fell to a daily average of about 19,000 this week, a 92% decline from a peak of about 225,000 in September. Active wallets fell 88% to about 14,000 last week from a high of 119,000 in November.'
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Tesla officially passes Visa and moves into the 7th spot for most valuable company in the U.S. (behind Berkshire Hathaway). Market Cap.Tesla: $473 billion.Visa: $451 billion. Net Income.Tesla: $0.4 billion.Visa: $11.8 billion. Profit Margin.Tesla: 1.4%.Visa: 51.4%.
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My 20yo son, stationed on an airbase in Turkey, just called to tell me about all the guys on the base going around bragging about how much money they’ve made buying “one-dollar stocks” on Robinhood.
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'Druckenmiller dumped shares of Alphabet, Amazon and Broadcom while scooping up shares of beaten-down gold miners Barrick Gold and Newmont, according to a Wednesday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.'
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'Record numbers of US executives are selling shares in their companies. The ratio of insider sales-to-insider buys has hit a record high for any quarter in two decades.'
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'With Joe Biden now making it clear that the recent $900B stimulus will “at best only be a down payment” and the now $3.3T of total stimulus spending “is just the beginning,” it sounds like America is headed into a program of permanent stimulus.'
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"Janet Yellen. was issuing 2-years at 15 bps when she could have issued 10-years at 70 bps or 30-years at 180 bps. I literally think if you go back to Alexander Hamilton, it is the biggest blunder in the history of the Treasury." -Stan Druckenmiller
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Over the past 32 trading days, NVDA has gained more than $1 trillion in market cap. To put that into some sort of perspective, the 6-week gain is greater than the total market cap of BRKA, which Warren Buffett has spent 6 decades in building.
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The Nasdaq is on the verge of exhaustion, says famed technical strategist Tom DeMark
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"A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends." -Warren Buffett.
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"If you're a day trader and you can walk and chew gum, you're making money right now. And so what are you doing? You're doing the same thing they did in the late-90's. Everybody is a genius in a bull market." -@mcuban
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'Nvidia is now more than six times the size of Intel — even though that company still had almost twice Nvidia's annual revenue.'
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'In gold terms, the S&P 500 is exactly where it was in August 1971. The significance of that date is that it was the moment when President Richard Nixon severed the dollar's link to gold.'
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For the first time in 22 years, bonds are yielding more than stocks.
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'I don’t believe there will be another financial crisis in our lifetimes.' -Janet Yellen, 2017. ‘We will not have any more crashes in our time.’ -John Maynard Keynes, 1927.
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In the four weeks ended Aug. 22:.-Egg prices rose 16.5%.-Cheese prices rose 7.3%.-Lunch meat prices rose 8.1%.-Diaper prices rose 8.8%.-Laundry detergent prices rose 9.2%.
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Google search trends for "call options" and "day trading" is pretty telling:
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Buffett’s $325 Billion Cash Hoard Is an Early Warning Signal
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‘This year will be critical because about $270 billion in commercial mortgages held by banks are set to expire—the highest figure on record. Most of these loans are held by banks with less than $250 billion in assets.’
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"Amazon's getting a 60% discount on their property taxes in the next decade, whereas mine have gone up. When you have that kind of subsidy going to a company that is running everybody else out of business, it’s hard to figure out a way around it."
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Netflix gained 12% ($24 billion in market cap) today on this news:
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'We estimate that current market conditions now "cluster" among the worst 0.1% instances in history, typically followed by abrupt market losses of 10%-30% over the next 6-10 weeks.' by @hussmanjp
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'Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller is betting against the US dollar as his only high-conviction trade in what he believes is the most uncertain environment for markets and the global economy in his 45-year career.'
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'Excluding the tech mega-caps, the S&P 500 forward PE ratio is nearing 12x.' via @SoberLook
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'When billionaire Bill Ackman went on television last week to tearfully warn that "hell is coming" and beg the White House to shut down the country for 30 days, he was knee deep in a bet against the markets that netted him $2.6 billion.'
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'Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management has earned more than $300mn in fees on its flagship exchange traded fund since its inception nine years ago, while wiping out almost $10bn of investors' cash in the same period.'
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'Almost 400 tons of gold were scooped up by central banks in the third quarter, more than quadruple the amount a year earlier. That takes the total so far this year to the highest since 1967, when the dollar was still backed by the metal.'
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Flights, Hotels and Parks Are All Flashing Travel Warning Signs
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'To get to a $740 share price simply requires NVDA to maintain a monopolist-like operating profit margin of 55% for the next decade, while also growing sales 10x to more than $600bn. For context, the entire industry sold $527bn worth of chips last year.'
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'A single whale investor this week appears to have spent more than $300 million buying up tens of thousands of S&P 500 option contracts that expire in the days following Tuesday's election, betting the market will experience a massive rally.'
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"You get in this vicious circle, where higher interest rates cause higher funding costs, cause higher debt issuance, which cause further bond liquidation, which cause higher rates, which put us in an untenable fiscal position." -Paul Tudor Jones
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$AMD now trades at triple its dotcom mania peak valuation with revenue growth today roughly half of what it was back then.
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'For anyone who wondered about where the small day traders who made the 1990s so wild went, meet the 2020 version.'
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"11% of credit cards are delinquent 90+ days… past surges showed an economy which was already in recession." via @dailychartbook
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Insider selling maintains its torrid pace this week. Executive sales > $1 million filed yesterday:
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'Peter Thiel, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg are leading a parade of corporate insiders who have sold hundreds of millions of dollars of their companies' shares this quarter, in a signal that recent stock market exuberance could be peaking.'
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The real Fed Funds Rate currently stands at -4.1%, the most deeply negative rate since 1980.
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"Every single time in the last 80 years when the Fed was raising rates to bring down inflation more than 4 percentage points the economy crashed and landed into a recession - and I haven't seen a credible case that this time is different." -@biancoresearch
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'ARKK has now tumbled 43% from the beginning of 2021 to Friday’s close, while Berkshire Hathaway is up 34%.'
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"Inflation is not going to be transitory. I have a whole list of companies that have announced price increases, that have told us they expect further price increases, and that they expect them to stick." -@elerianm
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"It may be the greatest error in history to pay extreme multiples for extreme earnings that reflect extreme margins and extreme gov. subsidies while imagining those multiples also deserve a premium for depressed rates that reflect depressed growth."
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'Never since 1945 has annual inflation, measured by CPI, fallen from above 5% to below 3% without a recession at the time of the fall or within the subsequent 18 months. Yet financial markets are rejoicing at the prospect of such a "soft landing".'
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'Reports describe what is politely labeled "a high level of degenerate behavior" and which one person in Musk’s circle describes as "total and complete pathological sociopathy."'
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'Real estate accounts for almost 30% of China’s GDP — far higher than the U.S. at the height of its boom. To make matters worse, Chinese citizens are extraordinarily dependent on real estate for their nest eggs — the homeownership rate is 90%.'
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This market-timing model nailed the 2022 meltdown. Now it’s warning that stocks are a ‘dead cold sell.’ by @MktwHulbert
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'An unlikely aberration has taken place in global bond markets for the first time on record: yields on emerging-market bonds in local currencies have fallen below US Treasuries.'
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'Four years ago, America elected its first billionaire president. Since then, the nation’s 200-or-so wealthiest people - a cohort representing 0.00006% of the population - have increased their combined wealth from less than $1.8t to more than $2.8t.'
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'The richest 10% of Americans own 88% of the $29 trillion in corporate stock and mutual fund shares, according to the Federal Reserve.'
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'There have been 6 "lost decades" in which an investor in a 60/40 portfolio would have either broken even relative to inflation or lost money in real terms. They all began when either or both stocks and bonds were trading at extremely high valuations.'
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'The Fed is inflating stock prices, widening wealth inequality, delaying a wave of inevitable defaults, and directing investment into poorly run companies at the expense of the long-term vitality of the economy.'
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Over the past 45 years commodities have not been cheaper relative to equities than they are today
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Insider sales by executives last week were up 103% from the same week a year ago. Here are the sales reported Friday over $1 million (via :
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There is evidence that this rally may turn out to be a big fat bull trap. And it’s not a single data point, but rather it’s a confluent set of factors that are acting in concert that give credence to this possibility. by @NorthmanTrader
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'The Fed has now outpaced foreigners in terms of market share in the US Treasury market, which could clearly be seen as a negative for the USD reserve status.'
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'Eighteen months after the introduction of generative AI to the world, not one truly transformative—let alone cost-effective—application has been found. Over-building things the world doesn't have use for, or is not ready for, typically ends badly.'
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'On Sunday, an inauspicious milestone was achieved: The yield curve remained inverted for an entire quarter which has for half a century been a clear signal that the economy is heading for recession in the next nine to 18 months.'
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'Costco's baskets reveal that consumers are looking for ways to save on necessities. CFO Richard Galanti said on Thursday's earnings call that sales have shifted from beef to poultry and pork, a trend the company historically sees during recessions.'
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"This is very similar to 1999, when everybody said: You have to buy Cisco, JDS Uniphase, Microsoft; the biggest companies because they are the ones that are going to deliver the internet. It turned out to be exactly the opposite." -@biancoresearch
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'In America it looks increasingly weird that the Federal Reserve is the biggest buyer of Treasuries while the economy is powering ahead. The Fed’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities, amid a red-hot housing market, now look bizarre.'
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'Nothing about this was real. It's a farce. The promises of artificial intelligence will not be kept through the pursuit of genAI as it is a dead-end technology that has peaked, one that costs too much — both financially and socially — to keep it going.'
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'Today, commodities are as undervalued relative to common equities as they have ever been. All signs point to the early stages of a prolonged commodity bull market, likely stretching into the 2030s.' by @Go_Rozen
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"The merging of the Fed and the Treasury, which is effectively what’s happening during Covid, sets a precedent that we’ve never seen since the Fed got its independence. It’s obviously creating a massive, massive mania in financial assets."
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"The greatest credit event of all would be a recession in which US yields went up, not down." -Bank of America's Michael Hartnett
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'The top ten stocks in the S&P 500 remain above 30% of the market value, but the earnings contribution is declining.' via @SoberLook
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'What this means is that the financial system becomes unstable before the Fed is able to raise rates high enough to impact the labor market. In effect, the Fed will fail to rein in inflation before it's forced to pause to tackle financial instability.'
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"Does @federalreserve actually believe buying foreign company bonds with US taxpayer dollars helps America? All it does is move the markets higher and distracts us from what's actually happening to Main St jobs. This is what a kleptocracy looks like."
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'Valuations of the world's gold producers, led by Newmont and Barrick, have rarely been as heavily discounted in the past 40 years versus the gold price as they are now.'
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'Sooner rather than later, we'll be dealing with the consequences of the biggest financial bubble in US history. Why the biggest? Because it encompasses not just stocks but pretty much every other financial asset too. And for that, you may thank the Fed.'
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‘Last week, when the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high, 334 companies trading on the NYSE hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history -- all of them in December 1999.’
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'CNBC’s Jim Cramer speculates that Wall Street pros may be buying Robinhood favored stocks in the premarket and then selling them to retail investors who buy during market hours.'
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What I love about Twitter: The open sharing of ideas among passionate market participants. What I deeply dislike: The all-too-common resorting to personal attacks in the place of meaningful discussion. The one you choose says more about you than any actual point you could make.
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Another big day of insider selling yesterday. Sales by execs over $1 million.
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'On a price-to-sales basis, the stock market is very close to the record set in the post-Covid boom in 2021. On a price-to-book value basis, it's almost taken out the all-time high from the dot-com bubble in 2000.' via @johnauthers
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'Nvidia recently earned the most valuable company in the world status with an EV of $3.3 trillion, a record 11.7% of total US GDP at its recent peak on June 18, more than twice as high as Cisco's achievement in 2000.' by @Crescat_Capital @TaviCosta
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'US stocks' outperformance relative to the rest of the world has reached extreme levels.' via @SoberLook
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The market cap of the entire S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary index has gained $318bn so far this year, of which Amazon and Netflix on their own account for $375bn. Strip out these gains and the rest of the index has dropped $57bn in market cap for the year.
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'The energy sector is now at its lowest point relative to the S&P 500 since 1931.'
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"Credit spreads say the stock rally is unstable, flashing the biggest warning since the dotcom bubble." via @dailychartbook
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'Oil is interesting. Everybody’s assuming the world’s going to not use oil for the next 20 years, or next year. I’m buying companies that I don’t think will go bankrupt.'
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'Corporate insiders are more bearish today than they’ve been in more than a decade.' ht @Callum_Thomas
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'By selling liquid holdings to support illiquid holdings ARK is becoming more illiquid. That is what U.K.-based fund Woodford Capital did before suspending redemptions and closing.'
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"In the end, life is simple. Low rates push up asset prices. Higher rates push asset prices down. We are now in an era that will average higher rates than we had for the last 10 years."
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'This time last year, smaller US-based commercial banks collectively had a buffer of $700bn in cash or assets to sell if depositors wanted their money back. That buffer is gone.'
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"Across four decades of work in the financial markets, and over a century of historical data, I’ve never observed as many historical indications of a market peak occurring simultaneously." -@hussmanjp
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'Every single member of the Fed board Is a millionaire. Some are invested in private equity funds, Blackrock iShares, or other assets referencing financial corporations. These strike me as a violation of Section 10, part 5 of the Federal Reserve Act.'
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