Dwayne Sparkes
@sparkes_dwayne
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Prospector. Passion for all things science and exploration. My thoughts are my own. Nichols Point Minerals.
Perth, Western Australia
Joined November 2020
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A couple of days have passed now and I’ve slowly recovered from reading the GS supply table. Some more ramblings on the current lithium market whilst I sip my morning coffee (managed to get this one down).
Following on from my previous post regarding lepidolite production within
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At the end of December, BHP had $AU18.2B in cash. They generally acquire a project once ever 7 or so years. Recent downturn in the market. It’s time to takeover $LTR. My prediction: $LTR to be taken over by a major within the next 12 months.
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No coffee today as I spat it out reading Goldman Sachs' lithium supply table which popped up in my twitter feed.
What i find most intriguing about this table is that it states the majority of lithium supply will come from China itself, in particular internal lepidolite and
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Ever wondered why some lithium hard rock companies are producing SC6 and others a product containing less lithium (SC5.5, etc.)? Here's why whilst I sip my morning coffee (the crema is amazing today).
$PLS - SC5.5
$AKE - SC5.3
$MIN - SC6.0
First, understand that there are
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Interesting announcement by $PLS this morning. $PLS is going to add another 150kt of spodumene concentrate to their existing offtake agreement with Ganfeng, bringing the total to 310kt this year. Here are my thoughts whilst I sip my morning coffee.
Why would Ganfeng suddenly
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I just got done reading another lithium supply demand prediction and I believe there is a key concept that a lot of analysts are overlooking in their predictions. Given that most of the predictions are estimating a supply surplus of around 75-200kt LCE (1-4%) until 2028/2029,
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A little bit of information on lithium rock chip sampling and some things to look out for whilst I sip my morning coffee.
Be careful when investing in a company off lithium rock chip samples. You probably hear that all the time, but here are the technical reasons behind it.
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I'm still sticking to my guns that we are going to struggle to get enough lithium to support the growth of EVs and batteries.
Here's a bit of a different take that i had whilst sipping my morning coffee. I think future lithium discoveries are going to decrease significantly,
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Thought I'd share some of my recent research into the state of the current lithium market and give my updated thoughts.
Touching on lepidolite firstly. I keep reaching the same conclusion: lepidolite is a short term solution and is never going to be a legitimate source of
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Thought i might do a quick post giving my view on lepidolite given its getting so much attention recently. The general consensus is that the reason the spot price of lithium hydroxide and spodumene concentrate are decreasing is due to the Chinese rapidly processing significant
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@DanielAndrewsMP
I’ll be voting no because I believe in a united Australia. We are all equal. We don’t need a voice that will further racially divide people.
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Have had a number of people tell me lithium is dead and the boom is over. I disagree, and here are my thoughts on why whilst I sip my morning coffee:
Firstly, understand just how much lithium goes into an EV battery:
7/8 tonnes of SC6 (spodumene ore containing 6% li2O) = 1
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Some more thoughts i had on the lithium market whilst sipping my morning coffee.
Looking at the import data (posted below), these mines producing out of Zimbabwe are running at a combined total of around ~1.21Mtpa of ~SC3.9. To get the 1.21Mtpa, I’ve simply multiplied the
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As i sip my usual morning coffee, reading through lithium supply forecasts, I'm noticing a regular pattern.
An important factor that a lot of these analysts are forgetting/overlooking in their lithium supply forecasts is just how much recoveries suffer when in operation. It
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If a spodumene lithium miner can produce an SC6 product using DMS (dense media separation) with high recoveries, its the next best thing to having a money printer.
So why does a company such as $PLS need to use a combination of both DMS + Flotation? You'll probably need to
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My quick thoughts on $CXO (and other potential lithium producers) whilst I sip my morning coffee.
Two main methods for refining pegmatites containing spodumene. DMS & Flotation. Which you choose depends mainly on the size of the spodumene crystals and it’s coarseness.
$CXO
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Magnetic survey (one of the many types of geophysics) basics with a real personal example.
Have seen some outrageous magnetic targets and claims posted by some ASX listed companies and thought I'd better do a little post on the basics! You'll notice that when a discovery is made
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Was sent a question from a follower today and thought I’d answer it in a post! So here’s another post on lithium exploration whilst I sip my morning coffee!
Have you ever read a company’s rock chip results and seen the ratio K/Rb? 99% of investors don’t know what this means.
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How is it that JP Morgan and Citi have almost a 100,000t LCE difference in their lepidolite 2030 output prediction? Makes me think the western world has no idea what is really happening with lepidolite production in China. That or someone is being naughty.
Who has the better
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Lepidolite slowly coming offline now. Hearing reports that CATLs Jianxiawo mine has been suspended. What does this mean for Zijin’s Xiangyuan mine which is meant to be doing 5mpta next year? A lot of supply about to come off the market. Lepidolite isn’t a long term solution 😏
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Was sent an announcement this morning from someone asking for a bit of help in interpreting what it meant. I thought I might make a post about it so others can hopefully learn something from it too.
The announcement was released this morning from $DRE
@Dreadnought_Res
.
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Thought I might use the $ACM announcement to put a couple of my previous posts into practice. I'll also discuss below why the share price has fallen off a cliff after today's announcement.
1. K/Rb Ratio - The whole point of this ratio is to determine the level of fractionation
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Almost finished modelling what's available of $AZS's deposit. I'm thinking about posting it (block model with resource estimate) to twitter soon. Would anyone be interested in taking a look?😃
I should add that I'm having to make a lot of assumptions. The geological
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So many shit exploration companies on the ASX! The industry needs a big clean up! 95% shouldn’t exist let alone be listed!!!
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Given we are going to need a lot more lithium, i thought i might focus on lithium exploration and talk about our new tenement at
@NicholsPoint
whilst I sip my morning coffee!
This is the basic recipe you need for hard rock lithium to occur 👨🍳. When looking for projects I
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My personal update on the lithium market:
My friend from Africa is selling lepidolite ore as seen below for US$550 a tonne! The ore comes from a small artisan mine.
If lepidolite ore (DSO) is going for US$550 a tonne, then the lithium market is in an extremely strong state
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I’ve had a couple of people ask my thoughts on $WC8’s downhole drilling (drilling into the dip of the pegmatite) so I thought I’d just give my views in a post.
I don’t have an issue with it, as long as the company is transparent with shareholders, and that shareholders are
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Sipping my morning coffee, wondering whether the south of the Gascoyne could also become a lithium hotspot. Before getting into details, you need to understand the following (otherwise I'll sound like a crazy person):
1.) You need granitic intrusions in order for pegmatites to
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Have had a number of people ask me my thoughts on the nearology plays to $AZS so I thought I'd address it in a post.
$GRE, $ARV & $RDN seem to be the most popular nearology plays.
I'm going to reference my previous post and apply it to these three companies.
Fertile Granite -
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Which is preferred, multiple stacked pegmatites or singular large pegmatites?
Most of Australia's pegmatites are hosted in mafic rocks (rocks that contain a lot of iron and magnesium). Some examples: $LTR, $PLS,
#WC8
.
These mafic rocks tend to have a similar densities to
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Recently completed our initial model for
#WC8
's Tabba Tabba deposit!
TOTAL TONNAGE ESTIMATE: 25.5 Mt
This model includes the extents of what is in the red arrow in the below picture.
Our take on the deposit:
1.) 3 north-easterly dipping pegmatite bodies within the central
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My thoughts on $AZS initial recoveries and metallurgy results:
$AZS's recoveries will improve a lot I believe. It seems their initial results were purely based on flotation with little other work (magnetic separation, up-current classifier, pre-DMS, etc.)
They achieved a
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Thought I might give you all some clarity on some of the costs associated with exploration whilst I sip my usual morning coffee! This information isn’t that readily available, so you may be able to use it as a rough guide.
A lot of people don’t realise this but assaying is
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My new favourite place in Perth! The Perth Core Library!
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Imagine plugging PLS’s new offtake price US$ 6300 into $LTR’s DFS. Producing in 2024, mine under construction, mc roughly AU$2.9B. They used US$1392 to achieve NPV of AU$4.2B. I smell cash. Oh and that’s just for one project. Buldania any1? Can’t wait to retire in 2024.💰 $LTR
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I am finding $IND very interesting for a couple of reasons:
What is the lithium mineral? Pink mineralisation mentioned within announcement - are we looking at the pink variation of spodumene "Kunzite"? Pretty rare in Australia. Have had some ask if its lepidolite but the
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$MIN are still incredibly hungry for lithium it seems after their latest deal with $GAL.
They didn't provide much information on today's announcement about the lithium potential. However, after taking a closer look into it, I've noticed the following:
There is a mapped LCT
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As promised, here is the updated wireframe model for $AZS's deposit for you all to take a look at, along with my tonnage and grade estimates.
I am getting towards the upper end of $AZS's exploration target for target area 1 with my model, with my numbers being as follows:
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Finding $WML's mount short project (north of Mt Cattling) to be quite an interesting lithium project.
They were hitting thick pegmatites in historical drills (see table below) in the 90's and were never assayed for lithium.
Trawling through some old reports, I found some logs
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Was casually browsing through Linkedin last night and noticed this picture of the underground mine development at $LTR. The face looks like its loaded with sulfides...? Did $LTR assay for gold during drilling? Should definitely sample that given how close it is to Bellevue! $BGL
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Lithium spot price to double from here. DLE won’t work for 10+ more years, Canadian lithium will come on much slower than anticipated, massive CAPEX blowouts for soon to be major producers (Wesfarmers, Liontown, etc.) damaging and delaying supply. You heard it here first.
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Something tells me Abermarle will be back with a bigger offer for $LTR.Logically, theres no other resource other than KV able to fill the void ofGreenbushes. $PLS $MIN $AKE too expensive, and companies such as $RDT $GL1 etc. too small.They need this feed for Kemerton hydroxide.
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A while ago I had some people ask me to recommend a book which provides some basic fundamentals about geology and earth related sciences.
Well I think I’ve finally found one! Rocks, Fossils and Formations: Discoveries Through Time, is perfect for people without a technical
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Hang on, i thought that the lepidolite was more than enough?!! 😂
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Always good to see a company make a discovery off soil anomalies!
#TG6
created a soil grid out of 46ppm+ Li areas. They also were getting Rb correlations (suggesting LCT fractionation). Drilled into their target zone and low and behold, hit a couple of pegs with decent grade.
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@lepidicans
First of all, initial beneficiation of the lepidolite before pressure leeching in itself creates a huge amount of waste. Secondly, do you think the acid magically disappears? Needs to be neutralised and disposed of. Thirdly, Lepidicos plant is almost a pilot plant in my eyes.
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@ausstockchick
Sodium is 3 x heavier than lithium and has 10% less electrode potential energy. Pretty important properties.
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After I beat him in chess, this man told me where the next major lithium discovery will be.
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@AlboMP
@TheMatildas
@FIFAWWC
So you’re watching the soccer and not reading the Uluṟu statement… interesting 🤔
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No, when the company says they've sent the samples away for "rush analysis", they aren't best friends with the lab owner and they certainly haven't begged them to speed up the assaying of their submitted samples. They've literally ticked a check box on the sample submittal
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Just beat the two best Geologists in WA, 2 on 1. Back to the drill rig you go boys. Thank you for the game gentlemen, was a pleasure. Who’s next?
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A little tip for some of my followers: If a company releases rock chip samples with lithium and elevated Rb (rubidium), then its almost certainly Lepidolite and NOT spodumene.
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My good friend who is a geologist in Africa just sent me the below photos. This is Lepidolite ore. He is selling it for $US500-$US600 per tonne with customers lined up for miles. Lepidolite DSO for $US600 a tonne!!! But the price of lithium is falling through the floor?!🤔 😂
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Stay safe out there my fellow prospectors! Snake gators are a must! Never seen so many snakes! 5 in one day! Lucky I’ve got
@James_Dou77
to watch where I’m stepping!
#lithium
#cashhounds
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@jczuleta
I think you need to do more research son. Flotation definitely does not separate the individual elements, moreso the minerals from one another… the K, Si, and Mg are all apart of the chemical formula of Lepidolite and will not be separated due to flotation. It needs to enter the
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@JEChalmers
@australian
@yes23au
@LindaBurneyMP
@AlboMP
The voice will create more racial division and will also add an enormous amount of red tape, making Australia less productive and less competitive on a global scale. If you care about your job and the future jobs for your children in Australia, vote no.
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@JohnLeePettim13
It’s all fun and games to say these things, but what’s your solution? Not evolve? Please tell us
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@AlboMP
Meanwhile in the real world, inflation is running through the roof, houses prices are about to crash, energy prices are soaring, manufacturing is at an all time low. But sure, this is a more important issue I guess 😆.
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@LilyDAmbrosioMP
Hahaha! Australia is in serious trouble with people like this trying to be politicians!
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@D_Jimenez_Sch
11mtpa @ 0.29% li20 (fully integrated) most likely exceeds 17,000-19,000 USD per tonne to produce. That’s double the current price. So their 10% was what we like to call in the industry double trouble.
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Interesting to see how visible $DLI's pegmatites are from satellite view (red dashed lines).
Combing over $KFM's ground, its interesting to see that within proximity to a granitic intrusion (goldilocks zone), there are similar features
Some interesting targets here. MC $A15mill
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@LithiumIonBull
@MinviroLtd
Well said
@LithiumIonBull
.
The largest documented lepidolite mine within China is the "414 Mine". Roughly has 130Mt @ 0.38% li2O. Thats roughly equivalent to a
#GL1
Manna deposit in terms of contained lithium. I'm sticking to my view that the lepidolite deposits and stockpiles
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@BarryDa79113466
wins, his guess of Wolframite is correct. Wolframite is a mineral containing tungsten for those of you wondering. Commonly found within LCT pegmatites. Don’t drink those coffees all at once Barry!
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These intercepts from todays announcement are insane. This model is going to need some updating now! Hahaha
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Rough, back of the envelope resource size calc for $AZS recent discovery
AP0011-25-30Mt
APO0012-15-20Mt
Note: Made a heap of assumptions (i.e., Assumed pegs are homogenous,etc). Also scaled off the PDF..
Only a small part so wouldn't be surprised to see it get much larger.
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Whilst we all knew that this was a long shot, and that this was a very binary outcome (lose it all or make a lot), the way the WML team handled this was pathetic IMO! Unfortunately, i rode it all the way up to 3 cents from 1.1 cent and back down to 0.4 cents... 🤦♂️We can increase
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What a way to start the day! Have had a few people ask me for some books on ore-forming. Here’s one that I think is quite good. It’s a little on the complex side but still a good read if you’ve got some time to learn.
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If anyone can correctly guess what the black minerals are within this rock, I’ll buy you 10 coffees ☕️.
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#IR1
resource model.
Total Tonnage: 10-12Mt
Question about grade: Is there potential for amblygonite to have upgraded the grade or is it just spodumene? Amblygonite was once mined from the area.
Red box is western boundary of tenement extended down and hence, we've stopped
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Just look at the marketing bills. These dickheads fly from conference to conference and what value does it add? Business class, nice hotels, yet their market cap is 5mill 🤦♂️
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Brilliant interview with
@RR_Stars
and
@timgoyder
My main takeaways:
1. A$2.5B FCF per year expected
2. $ALB offer = 2 years of KV cashflow
3. Resource still open for growth
4. KV isn’t for sale. Wants juicy dividends
5. Future lithium market is strong
6. Rates D.Richards
$LTR
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Abermarle need to throw everything at $LTR now given the Chilean news. Absolutely crucial they secure a tier 1 asset. How many tier 1 hard rock lithium discoveries have been made since Kathleen valley? 😂
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Price of lithium is going to explode. Simple. $SQMs invest in $AZS shows just how desperate the industry is for lithium. $AZS are at such an early stage of exploration (rock chip). TLEA bid for $ESS, $PLS’s new offtake price US$6300 with China. Signs are there. $LTR
@LiontownRes
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@Rangoon871
I appreciate what you're saying Mr Beef Rangoon! However, and this is just my opinion, the demand is estimated to be at around 3Mt by 2030. I believe we hit this in 2028... The BESS demand is grossly underestimated. As my good friend
@usuallyYJLee
alluded to, Saudi Arabia is
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Dear Followers,
If an REE clay isn’t ionic, it’s close to worthless. How many ionic clay deposits are there in Australia? Probably 1 that’s partially. Metallurgy before drilling.
Also, I’ll never Invest in clay REEs. Goodluck getting enviro approvals. This isn’t China/Africa.
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Handy little table for all you mad punters out there. Different geophysical methods for different deposit types.
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Unsure what is happening with this announcement. Maybe the LIBS needs some calibration? 11.7% Li converts to 25.19% Li2O... (you multiply it by 2.153)
Theoretical value of Triphylite and lithiophilite is approx 4.4% Li.
I wouldn't mind finding some minerals that are 1/4 lithium
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But don’t worry, they will show you all some bullshit targets or a new shit tenement so you’ll take their next cap raise 😂
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$AZS brilliant new hits. Shows the thick mineralisation of AP0011 extends significantly. Didn’t scale the distance from A-A to C-C but seems to be around 500m. Impressive. Also seems to be no surface expression at C-C. 😊
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@TwinTurboCe1ica
The actual underground mining aspect won’t be cheaper than an open pit but I think it’s moreso the fact that $LTR will be pulling out grades 20-30% higher with better metallurgy (than say $PLS) that may offset this cost a bit and keep them lowish on the cost curve.
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Handy little table. Background values in ppm for different magma types. Note lithium can be up to 50ppm in rhyolite. I’ve seen certain companies flaunting 40ppm 😂.
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@stockswami
Yep, definitely seems like it was leaked! Disappointing from management! It’s ok to miss with the drillbit - that’s exploration and everyone is aware of the risks. Leaking info is a different story…
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More amazing drill results for $DLI
WA lithium is on fire 🔥.
Best place in the world for hard rock lithium.
$AZS
$LTR
$PLS
$DLI
$MIN
$WES
$IGO
$GL1
$AKE
$CXO
Forget lithium brine!!
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Which approach is better for listing an exploration co on the asx:
A.) Peg some barren pegmatites and start an exploration program for lithium
B.) Find some clay that contains 0.01% TREO and claim it’s ionic.
C.) Find some 0.3% Ni disseminated sulfides and reference Mt Keith.
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