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We tracked 1006 picks on
@betstamp
and are up +186u ($100 bettor up $18549).
Here are the 3 main lessons on how to use Betstamp to make you a better bettor:
🧵👇
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Update, I got contacted!
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If Lakers played Nuggets or Grizzlies in the first round, what do you think series prices would be
@JeffreyBenson12
?
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FD is a great company, beautiful UI/UX, and the current/former people I've met that worked there were cool and professional. Their limits are more than fair as well, esp considering how many games/markets they offer
Draftkings and Fan Duel have announced a joint venture, they have titled, "Fuck The Customer". The contest will last a week. The company that turns down 1. The Most Business and 2. Alienates the most customers, will win the title of biggest shithole sportsbook in America.
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For the National Championship game
UConn risk 5k, +160
Purdue risk 2.1k, +662
If UConn wins, net 5.9k
If Purdue wins, net 8.9k
@PropSwap
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Buffett: "Boredom is a problem with most professional money managers. Not only do they get somewhat antsy but their clients start yelling 'swing you bum' from the stands."
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2. You need a rigorous system to find and test potential edges.
Tools like
@DataRobot
help you test thousands of different models and parameter combinations.
Read about multiple comparisons problem, Bonferroni correction, etc to help you avoid 'p-hacking'.
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@Shot_Quality
Step 1: Try to win the bet
Step 2: If it loses, use your CLV to cope
Step 3: If Step 2 fails, check
@Shot_Quality
and hope that your team 'took better shots'
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1/2 Kelly Criterion might be too aggressive especially when you overestimate your edge, but if you are betting for example 1/10 Kelly, you are giving up a lot of EV.
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Big arb opportunity for the Gonzaga and USF game. Tracked this on
@betstamp
30+ minutes ago and it is still up.
#gamblingtwitter
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If you want up to an extra $250 in your pocket this week and aren't on PropSwap already send me a message
It is a banger site especially if you are a +EV bettor
I got this Arizona -19.5 ticket and won 7k, market was -22 (!!!) when I bought it. I find stuff like this all the
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Darn, no more credit card points on Discover for real money gaming deposits. That was one of the best cards previously for APs.
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#OddsJam
says Pinnacle is the sharpest line in the world, and would tell you to bet this, because according to Pinnacle lines you would have a no-vig 5% edge on this pick.
But
@FDSportsbook
takes more than 10x on this game than Pinnacle does.
#GamblingTwitter
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We once lost $40k on a cashout with
@FDSportsbook
due to an unclear start time on a lower level college basketball game (UC Riverside vs Northern Arizona).
🧵
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Makes me lol when crypto guys say this. There are some crypto guys who have stolen money from me with coins that have gone up in value by 5-10x. I am hunting down just the original amount and will be satisfied with that lol.
For example if a contractor steals 10k USD from you
@unusual_whales
Not even close
Dollarized recovery is a scam
Victims lost crypto and are getting paid back in USD
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*fires into NFL 2 minutes before kickoff*
men will literally spend all their time and money trying to squeeze out a tiny sliver of edge from the most efficient markets in the world instead of going to therapy
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Hanshin Tigers +1.5 -175 on
@BetMGM
. If you're comparing to Pinnacle and Bookmaker, this has a 5% no vig edge.
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I think people are sometimes willing to take less EV if that means they are minimizing variance, time and energy spent, etc
A couple weeks ago there was a Heat to make play in ticket for ~10k that had a ~49% chance of winning and ~40% implied probability
It was pretty tough to
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Best you can get on a sharp book for Nebraska vs Wisconsin tomorrow is +12.5 -106. MGM hanging +13.5 -110, which after checking
@UnabatedSports
no-vig alt line calculator, has value.
Everything tracked on
@betstamp
(link in bio).
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Connecticut Sun -4.5 -110 on MGM / BWin is a great snipe, BOL / Circa / LowVig have -6.
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It also exposed us to more outs, and gave us a better idea about what is sharp and/or influences the market. Here's an angle that most people don't know yet: FanDuel is sharper than Pinnacle and Bookmaker in certain markets.
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+440 ✅
relive today's win over the 49ers in our postgame recap
📰 »
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How does this relate to our example with Betstamp? Let's say we have 10000 users (our N) flipping coins and tracking their bets. We expect 300 or so to hit at 58%+ over 150 picks, where a win rate greater than 58% is our "unlikely event X".
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There are great options like 4Casters, Fairlay, and other low vig sites. If you originate 10 picks per week, $5k average bet size, you could save over six figures yearly if you use a low and/or no vig book/arrangement.
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If your out gives you +100, at worst when you are coin flipping your EV = 0 - (the small commission you pay).
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Word!
@JoeyKnish22
Managing account health, getting new ones....its more then a full time job, so saying someone that is successful is addicted is like telling someone they work to much
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🚨 Arbitrage alert on a liquid market ($3000 on
@CircaSports
) 🚨
Warriors vs Nuggets total 225.5
Circa -109
Pinnacle +119
Use this to tell you how much to bet:
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- Highly correlated datasets, such as an NBA playoffs model that goes 300-235, but 50%+ of the picks were the Cavaliers with Lebron.
- Doing really well in smaller games (FBS for CFB, extra games for CBB), and falsely believing that this 'edge' will translate to normal games.
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Is your data is your data independent and identically distributed? Some issues we've commonly seen
- Line sniping to inflate one's record, which leads to the false conclusion that this handicapper/model has an edge when originating
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🔥🤓👨💻
Yeah, but, didn't you get limited?
Of course. It was dead obvious what I was doing too. So, they fixed the error, right? Right? RIGHT???
Nope. Not for 3 months. Without a network, I enlisted friends and sent them the plays to make. As a group we netted close to $250k.
12/x
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Australia (W) vs USA (W) over 4.5, over 3.5, +7.65
Erhard -1
Bara vs Kucova under 21.5 -1
Pliskova vs Kawa under 21.5 +1.1
+6.75 since last update
.26 + 6.75 = 7.01u cumulative
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Live look at
#GamblingTwitter
after
@BrooksCapkaMMA
ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLE win on the Warriors tonight 🦗🦗🦗
Since they lost in in 2016 I sat on this take for 6 years knowing when the time was right I would get paid off for sticking w the take that
@StephenCurry30
is the goat.
In that time span, the ADD children switched from KaWhI to Giannis to KD back to Giannis.
I win. (Thread)
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Zhang vs Keys under 20.5, 19.5 -2
Sock -1
Sinner vs Ruusuvuori under 21.5 +1.37
Kasatkina vs Garcia under 21.5 -1
Kasatkina vs Garcia under 20.5 -1
Roglan -1
Boitan +3.8
Juvan vs Schmiedlova under 20.5 +1.25
+0.42 since last update
-.16 + 0.42 = .26u cumulative
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First bet of the day hits at +370 (closed at +275). Great CLV (even on major markets), everything tracked on
@betstamp
.
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Soccer:
Port Darwin FC -2 +104, -2.25 +125, -2.5 +150
Jiangxi Liansheng draw no bet +120
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@kellyinvegas
Ouch, I was one of the 18 left, Duke losing knocked me out of the 64k survivor on
@splashsports_
. Was fun though, look forward to playing in more contests in the future 📈
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Tennis:
Boitan +380
Tusrenko vs Mendez under 18.5 +162
Roglan +359
Zhang vs Madison under 20.5 +120
Kasatkina vs Garcia under 21.5 +100
Kasatkina vs Garcia under 20.5 +120
Juvan vs Schmiedlova under 20.5 +125
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Yay, we got featured! Less popular markets like EuroLeague, CBA, lower level soccer, etc are also a big part of what we bet, looking forward to BetStamp adding tracking for those too in the future.
We’ve cleaned up and rotated our Featured Users section of
@betstampmarket
!
RT if you see yourself - reply a
#BetstampVerified
bettor you think deserves to be featured!
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Brewers +.4
Cubs +1.58
Marlins -1
+0.98 since last update
-1.14 + .98 = -.16u cumulative
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Baseball:
Diamondbacks +193
Soccer:
Slovacko U19 vs Opava U10 over 4.5 +175
AE Altos vs Ferroviario under 1.5 +175
Tennis:
Konjuh vs Zhang under 21.5 +100, under 19.5 +150
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Finally, you can use Betstamp to create better partnerships. Rather than being 'unproven' and having to take a raw deal, having a verified record leads to better deals, on your terms. Example: Keeping a higher % for a partnership.
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Soccer:
Greenville vs South Georgia draw +240
Dunkerque vs Chamois over 3.5 +425
1x2 Pau +350
Ponferradina vs Oviedo draw +212
Tigres vs Orsomarso draw +190
1x2 Teruel +340
Al Ahly Cairo -.75 1st half +112
Baseball:
Cubs +180
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It's great that more and more people are getting their records verified with a third party, but with the proliferation of users, inevitably some coin flippers are seemingly going to have edge.
Read about binomial probability, data dredging, etc for more on this topic.
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-0.65 since last update
10.09 - 0.65 = 9.44u cumulative after ~80 bets
Credit
@Nato78G
for noticing typo, it's Opava U19 not U10 lol. Maybe if it was U10, over 4.5 goals would have been scored 😉
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@PicksOffice
Didn't get paid $2137 for Nationals run line bc of a
@bookmaker_eu
'management decision'. As much hate as regulated US sportsbooks get, on
@FDSportsbook
this would have been paid out.
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Tennis:
Pliskova vs Kawa under 21.5 +110
Collins vs Stephens under 19.5 +150
Collins vs Stephens under 20.5 +110
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Here is our profile if you want to dive deeper into our betting history: .
Learned something in this thread? RTs appreciated!
#GamblingTwitter
#BetstampVerified
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Giving away a free pick to the new followers. If you have Wynn, LV Aces -6.5 -110. Probably closes around -8 or -8.5. Tracked it on Betstamp, we're 5-0 on WNBA spreads and getting .2% CLV best available.
#FreePicks
#GamblingTwitter
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Diamondbacks +175 ❌
Pirates +183 ❌
Bektas set -1.5 +950 ❌
Riske vs Vandeweghe under 20.5 +125 ✅
Bouzkova vs Konjuh under 20.5 +125 ❌
Magda game -5.5 +179 ✅
-0.96u since last update
-0.96u + .35u = -0.61u cumulative
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❌❌❌
Got 3 points of CLV but took the L, been a mediocre stretch for us lately 😾
❌❌❌
Connecticut Sun -4.5 -110 on MGM / BWin is a great snipe, BOL / Circa / LowVig have -6.
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Tennis:
Tomljanovic set hcp -1.5 +270
Sachko +200
Na-Lae set hcp -1.5 +550
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Soccer:
1x2 CD Tropezon +129
Portuguesa vs Deportivo over 1.5 +190
Botafogo vs Parana over 2.5 +138
Atletico Cearense vs America over 2.5 +110
El Zamalek vs Ghazl Al Mehalla over 4.5 +800
Grasshopper Zurich vs Lausanne over 4.5 +600
Azul (W) vs Pumas (W) draw +300
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1. Betstamp is great because it gives you more confidence when evaluating someone's record. Nevertheless, you are probably overestimating someone's edge, even if they are beating spreads at say 58%+ over 150 bets.
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@BetdaqEnda
@jasontrost
@Matthew_Trench
Jason is more compliant and as a result Smarkets is limited geographically. Betfair is more willing to get into location grey areas.
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For the National Championship game
UConn risk 5k, +160
Purdue risk 2.1k, +662
If UConn wins, net 5.9k
If Purdue wins, net 8.9k
@PropSwap
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3. Betstamp is great as an odds screen and also helps with developing outs and partnerships with others, which leads to more profit.
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- You get a notif and see one more pick for today, an under on the Rose Bowl, which you tail. After placing the bet, you look through the pick history, and it's a majority FBS schools you have never heard of before. That national TV Rose Bowl total pick might not win at 55.5%.
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Every odds screen has their pros and cons, but adding Betstamp's screen to our arsenal has been invaluable. It helps us get some great line snipes (such as MGM/PointsBet u105 1H on last night's Game 7, closed at 101).
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- You login to FanDuel to tail, only to see that most of the user's record is off lines at lower limit / niche books. Darn! Unfortunately you don't have those books in your state, and you can't tail.
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Persi Diaconis is an avid poker player and statistics professor at Stanford. He mentions the Law of Truly Large Numbers, which states:
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@DividendBreeder
I have $10000+ worth of claims I submitted to
@Cigna
last year and I haven't even got a response for most of them. I've called, emailed, etc. They say they will forward to their 'escalation team' but to nobodies surprise, I haven't gotten any updates (not even a reject, request
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@AviSchiffmann
Japan is amazing, but hard to be there for a while unless you speak the language.
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-6.59 since last update
-6.59 + 9.44 = +2.85u cumulative after ~95 bets
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Sinner vs Korda under 21.5 +150
Sinner vs Korda under 22.5 +110
Collins vs Stephens under 19.5 +140
Collins game -4.5 +137
Ivashka vs Mcdonald under 21.5 +137
Lepchenko game +3.5 +100
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Let's say somebody goes 500/900 (55.5%) on CFB totals, that's promising.
- You wake up and see they have 3 picks, but you can only get 1 one them due to line movement. That 1 pick with a stale line or even -CLV might not win at 55.5%.
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Tennis:
Schmiedlova vs Krunic over 21.5 +150
Ingildsen +225
Collins game -4.5 +125
Pliskova vs Buzarnescu, under 21.5 +110
Pliskova set -1.5 +300
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@JerseyCapperNHL
@betstamp
For arbs, we do each combination once. Meaning if there is an arb with Pinnacle and FD/DK lines, we would track Pinnacle + FD, and then Pinnacle + DK.
We also have a tracking spreadsheet for our non Betstamp picks:
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Tennis:
Sherif vs Kucova under 20.5 +125, under 21.5 +100
Oliynykova +220
Baseball:
Cardinals +105
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@haralabob
That was probably the most wholesome analogy ever made to describe a basketball play!
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