Talal Rafi
@talalrafi7
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Economist | Consultant - Asian Development Bank | Regular Columnist - International Monetary Fund | Ex-Deloitte | Views are strictly my own.
Joined March 2018
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My analysis piece for the International Monetary Fund
@IMFNews
on green policies and economic growth. As this was published by the IMF Headquarters in Washington DC, I had to write from a global perspective but I added a few sentences on Sri Lanka.
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Had a good chat with President Ranil Wickramasinghe last night at the Directors dinner. Was quite surprised to know that the President has read most of my articles especially the ones I wrote for the IMF and the World Economic Forum. I thanked him once again for introducing me to
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Let's give credit where it is due. Both the CBSL Governor and the Treasury Secretary took over their roles during Sri Lanka's toughest time. Though, we are not completely out of the woods, we are in a much better situation compared to last year. Many people put down state
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Sri Lankans pay more than double for onions, dhal, sugar, potato etc to protect certain unproductive industries. This affects the poor the most as a larger share of their income is spent on food. When I speak about this, I am called a neoliberal 🙂
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Congratulations to Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe for being in the list of the world's 21 top A-Grade Central Bank Governors of the Global Finance magazine. Well deserved. He took over when Sri Lanka was collapsing and today Sri Lanka is in a much better and stable
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Many are claiming credit for placing Sri Lanka on the path to financial stability. CBSL Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe is a true hero in his role in stabilizing. When I met him at his office last year, he was someone who was very confident of what he was doing. Great work.
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Let's give credit where it's due. Prof Shanta Devarajan, Dr Indrajit Coomaraswamy and Dr Sharmini Coorey have been advising the government as part of an advisory group on debt sustainability and multilateral engagements for over a year. Their expertise and efforts have
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A large portion of the credit should go to Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe. Even under severe pressure, he stood by with his decisions and though we are not out of the woods yet, we are moving in the positive direction. Last year, had the opportunity to be invited for a one on one
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Sri Lanka is like the worst kid in the class who other parents tell their kids not to be like. 🤦
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"Tamil Nadu's economy is set to be a $1 trillion economy by early 2030s and is bigger than Pakistan's economy. At this rate of growth, Tamil Nadu alone will have a larger economy that Russia by 2040. This is a great opportunity for Sri Lanka to drive economic growth"
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7 million Sri Lankans cannot have 3 meals a day now because of these leftist, socialist Soviet era politicians and their outdated thinking. This guy is still around but the thousands of young Sri Lankan children are having stunted growth. If we had just gone to the IMF early, the
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Once upon a time in Sri Lanka there lived a business community which stated this about the 2019 tax policy which led to Sri Lanka being downgraded, losing access to capital markets and its economy collapsing. Why blame only the politicians?
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President Ranasinghe Premadasa can be said to be the most successful President in Sri Lanka on the economic front. Even though he was fighting 2 civil wars, he still managed to improve almost all of Sri Lanka's economic indicators (as shown in table below). His 200 garment
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IMF has simply asked CEB to have cost reflective prices. After costs if SL has highest electricity prices, it can be due to CEB's high cost of production high or being overstaffed etc. Can we afford to subsidize? If so, from where do we get the money? Restructuring is the answer
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Had a great casual discussion with Former Central Bank Governor Dr Indrajit Coomaraswamy at his apartment. He invited me for a late evening coffee chat of nearly 3 hours. Discussed the economy, elections and advice on how to be a successful Central Bank Governor 😀. Dr
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@AthaudaDasuni
In Sri Lanka, everyone is scared to say anything to doctors. Even in a private hospital, the doctor is treated like the VIP customer. Doctors are allowed to park closest to the entrance while the paying customers have to find parking wherever else there is.
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My interview with The Sunday Morning Newspaper. I speak on the IMF program, prospects for economic recovery, fairness of DDO, Central Bank independence, SOE reforms and importance of relations with India. Key highlights of the interview are below :
Crisis is a great opportunity
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7 out of the top 10 loss making state owned enterprises do not publish annual reports. This would not happen in a private company because the management is accountable to the shareholders. But in SOEs, the tax payer is the shareholder. Why no accountability to the tax payer?
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Honoured to be appointed as a policy advisor to Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa. Looking forward to working on the economic front in taking Sri Lanka forward.
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Shows how Sri Lanka's external debt rose with each Sri Lankan President. If we had used all this borrowed money to invest in industries, this would have been fine. But Sri Lanka used borrowed money for consumption purposes. The chickens have come home to roost.
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"In 2021, Sri Lanka spent $3.7 billion on importing fuel alone. This is more than the entire IMF EFF loan. World Bank says Sri Lanka has offshore wind energy potential which exceeds Sri Lanka's demands. If we can invest in renewable energy, we will not be spending our foreign
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@Jayati1609
What is the alternative? You want to go back to the License Raj where poverty levels were many times higher? India is developing fast. Yes, the path is not perfect but it is many times better than the failed socialist polices pre 1990 which took India to the IMF many times as a
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There is a shortage of doctors in the country and poor people are suffering. Either allow private medical universities or allow foreign doctors to operate in Sri Lanka.
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@realDonaldTrump
Why is Melania holding your hands on this pic?? That's what's causing suspicion.
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"Many in Sri Lanka say they want to become like Vietnam economically. But the most important point to note about Vietnam is that it has 28 free trade agreements including 15 bilateral FTAs. But those in Sri Lanka oppose FTAs. We can't have the cake and eat it too"
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Tamil Nadu is expecting a stunning GDP (GSDP) growth of 14%. Tamil Nadu economy alone is over 4 times bigger than Sri Lanka's & is soon to be bigger than Pakistan's economy. Apple's supply chain is moving to Tamil Nadu. This should be seen as an opportunity for Sri Lanka's trade.
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"If we tap into just 2% of India's $700 billion import a year, Sri Lanka can double it's annual export earnings and bring down it's external debt much faster than the IMF projection. India is key to Sri Lanka's economic recovery and path to becoming a developed country.
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Honoured to join the Board of Sri Lanka's foreign policy think tank, Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute.
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"This IMF program is not like the past 16 ones. This time Chinese, Indian and Japanese taxpayers will take some loss due to debt restructuring/reprofiling. So their govts will make sure SL reforms and if we still don't reform this time, no nation will trust Sri Lanka again."
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Who did SL's economic crisis destroy the most? Its the elderly who saved all their life for retirement and now their savings have lost half their value to inflation. Salaries, fuel, food etc will eventually adjust to inflation but what the old people lost is forever. Sad reality!
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"Sri Lanka needs to move away from saying a leader can save the country. Elections should be about policies and not personalities. Even if Lee Kuan Yew followed economic policies supporting import substitution, bloated public sector, low taxation, excessive land ownership by
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@NewsWireLK
@AzzamAmeen
When past leaders promised rice from the moon, bread at Rs 3, free fertilizer, Rs 10,000 salary increase and tax cuts, where did you think they got money from? They borrowed from the future (which is now). Prof Sirimal Abeyratne and I speak on this...
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@adamcbest
@AndrewYangVFA
@AndrewYangVFA
Is seriously the best and most unique candidate in this election. Mainstream media isn't talking about him more. They should.
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"One of the biggest problems in this country is a risk averse culture. Less than 3% of Sri Lankans are entrepreneurs while in Vietnam & Thailand it's over 20%. Since there are few job creators, the public sector expands, resulting in 1.5 million Sri Lankans working for govt." (1)
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"Vietnam opened its economy after Sri Lanka but is being seen as an economic success. They focused on 3 things when they opened.
1. Liberalisation of trade with 26 FTAs.
2. Improving ease of doing business.
3. Investing heavily in education to prepare a workforce for the future."
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"Yes, Malaysia avoided the IMF in 1997, but, unlike Sri Lanka, Malaysia was not a bankrupt nation. Malaysia’s debt to GDP in 1997 was only 40% while Sri Lanka’s in 2022 was 128%. Malaysia’s Government revenue to GDP was 20% in 1997 while Sri Lanka’s was 8% in 2022.
Sri Lanka’s
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@kaushikcbasu
Dr Manmohan Singh was a great Economist and a great leader. I recently read Montek Singh Ahluwalia's book which speaks of the reforms taken by MMS. Btw, I'm Sri Lankan so I am not speaking with any bias.
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"If not for the IMF program, the external creditors may not have agreed to restructure SL debt & demanded repayments in 2022 itself. Our only choice would have been to sell off state owned enterprises at dirt cheap prices out of desperation to pay off creditors. Few realize this"
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"The Debt Restructuring deal has as a whole pushed repayments till 2028. But this is only a temporary relief as the next 4 years are crucial to get Sri Lanka's act together or face another default after 2028.
Bilateral payments have received a maturity extension till 2028 and
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Happy
#WomenInMultilateralism
Day to my wife Shazana Shahjahan. She graduated from the University of Cambridge and worked for Goldman Sachs before moving to Sri Lanka where she works at the
@WHO
. A real achiever!
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India is spending over 1.5% of its GDP on roads & railways alone to develop itself to become a $10 trillion economy by 2035. While our Sri Lankan Airline's losses in 2021 alone (Rs 170billion) was over 1% of SL's GDP. How can we move forward like this?
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Talal Rafi - Policy Advisor to Sajith Premadasa. My message to the Sri Lankan people (with Sinhala subtitle)
#BestTeamBestFuture
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@Pakistanomy
Looks like the same path Sri Lanka went. A lot can be learnt from the Sri Lanka experience. Things are stabilizing in Sri Lanka after painful measures.
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There's talk that Sri Lanka businesses will move abroad due to taxes. Won't happen easily. Most of non exporting businesses in SL are so dependent on import substitution & tariff protection that they can't survive outside. It's like asking a zoo animal to live in the jungle.
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"70% of Vietnam's exports are by firms in Vietnam who have foreign investments in them. Samsung itself accounts for 20% of Vietnam's exports. Vietnam is seen as a success story in growing exports and they have done it through foreign invested companies and not local. Thailand is
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Almas Holdings to go public later this year with a Rs 4 billion IPO.
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Chile and Sri Lanka were the first 2 countries from the developing world to open their economies. Today, Chile is an advanced economy but Sri Lanka is a bankrupt nation. Why is this? I explain the reasons in a speech at the Certified Management Accountants Conference last year.
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@HarshadeSilvaMP
@GotabayaR
@RW_UNP
@ParliamentLK
We need elections asap. If not, a SLPP or SLPP favoured President will be elected as they hold nearly 2/3 votes in parliament.
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Cabinet minister in Japan is forced to resign for not disclosing how he spend $7,000 over 5 years. That's just him spending around Rs 2 million (over 5 years) his party got but not disclosing it to the public. That is how serious Japan takes corruption. In Sri Lanka ofcourse 🤦
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Where is Sri Lanka after 76 years of independence? My comments on why Sri Lanka is still a great nation that we have to be proud of. Of course there is an opportunity cost. We should have been a developed country a long time ago but still we are much better than South Asia.
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My reply to the former Central Bank Governor's statement that printing money does not cause inflation. This was on Newsline (Sirasa) program on 12th April.
Full video on link below
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Many forget the economic contributions by Former President Ranasinghe Premadasa. President R Premadasa led the second wave of liberalisation and at the same time focused on eradicating poverty. Below table shows how President Premadasa improved Sri Lanka's economic outlook on
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@BernieSanders
Why are good ideas in America being called socialism? If doing good is called socialism, then let it be socialism.
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IMF board approval expected this month. It's up to all Sri Lankans to ensure the needed reforms are done & sustained.
1. We can reform & avoid IMF in future like Thailand
OR
2. We can avoid reforms & go to the IMF again like Argentina.
Let's reform!
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Calling the IMF the enemy of the people is a very irresponsible statement. It was the SL govt that requested IMF help when it had no other choice. Today, countries like India, China, Japan are to sacrifice their tax payer money for SL by restructuring what they lent to SL (1)
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Well said! Leftist policies is mostly expanding public sector & subsidies by burdening the private sector & using debt. So eventually leftists bankrupt their countries which then goes to the IMF. IMF gets blamed. India moved away from Licence Raj & never went to IMF since 1991.
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In 1977, Sri Lanka opened its economy under the UNP President J R Jayawardena. But when the SLFP took power in 1994 under
@CBKsrilanka
the economic reforms continued which was positive. From 1997 to 2005, there was a consensus that economic reforms were the right way forward. But
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Honoured to be recognised as a Fellow on Economics by University of Oxford Emeritus Professor Denis Galligan & the Oxford Global Society. Oxford Global Society is an Oxford based policy think tank of people largely associated with the University of Oxford.
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"Even if we successfully complete the current IMF program, our debt to GDP is only expected to come down to 95%. Ghana defaulted when it's debt was only 92% of GDP in 2022. This is how deeply in an economic crisis Sri Lanka is in. As the IMF's Peter Breuer said we are on a knife
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@SenSchumer
All student debt should be cancelled. Make education a universal right. Even developing countries have free education. Why not the largest economy in the world?
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@LeongWaiKitCNA
@MFAsg
@VivianBala
@ASEAN
Look at the positive side of it. ASEAN has said it doesn't recognise. More protests and stronger CDM will break the back of the Junta!
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Great to join the Almas Holdings Board as an Independent Non Executive Director.
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"1.4 million state employees and 600,000 state pension takers resulted in 86% of govt revenue going to pay salaries & pensions for them. If a private company heads towards bankruptcy, first thing they do is reduce the employee numbers. They do not increase product prices. With
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@AzzamAmeen
Similar political fighting happened in Lebanon and Lebanom descended into chaos. Sajith and AKD dont want to be PM under GR. If not Ranil, then who? Nimal Siripala De Silva? Right now let's focus on economy or many poor will suffer with food shortages.
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"1 in 3 men in Sri Lanka do not work or say they do not want to work. A serious issue in Sri Lanka is that only half of it's population which is in its working age, actually work or want to work. This category does not come under the unemployed. Only 1 in 3 women in Sri Lanka
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@AzzamAmeen
About high time the education system was changed. Education should be about creativity and the future. We are producing graduates who are not prepared to take on the world.
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Things look positive for the banks as T bonds owned by banks will not be restructured. With further policy cuts expected, more positive news for the economy going forward.
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@HarshadeSilvaMP
@flysrilankan
Lease for what use? If money is there for leasing aircrafts, then the creditors whose debts we have just defaulted on will ask why they cannot be paid instead. This is a wrong move at this time. Will make our ISB buyers want to sue us.
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Our debt was identified as unsustainable in early 2020 itself. Yet, Sri Lanka continued to pay it's debt. If we had defaulted back then and gone to the IMF, we would have defaulted with over $5 billion in reserves. Many would not have suffered. This is called an economic crime.
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CBSL Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe & Economist Talal Rafi to speak at the Oxford Global Society Panel on the topic "IMF : Long Overdue Reforms?" with Sri Lanka as a case in point. Panel Chair will be University of Oxford Emeritus Professor Denis Galligan.
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"DID YOU KNOW. 80% of Singapore's exports come from foreign invested companies. 70% of Vietnam's exports are from companies that have foreign investments in them. 82% of global knowledge intensive exports come from multinational companies.
How can Sri Lanka become an export
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Not only is Bangladesh connecting it's grid to Nepal but it's is doing it through Indian Territory. Grids connecting countries is normal in many countries. Connecting the grids of India and Sri Lanka will have great potential including the ability to export SL excess energy.
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The issue with Sri Lankan voters is that they vote based on the personality of the leader of a party and not based on their policies. More in-depth policy debates are needed and more voters should be given basic understanding of the situation.
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"Giving tax exemptions to investors is basically giving subsidy or govt money to them. We stop fuel subsidies saying no socialism for poor but we continue with socialism for the wealthy. We have to attract investors with incentives like ease of doing business, good workforce etc"
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@Myanmar_Now_Eng
The Junta has no legitimacy to charge anyone. If protestors give up, it's another half a century under the junta. Now or never.
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All SOEs in Singapore are run by Temasek, superholding company. Singapore's SOEs perform better than private firms and hire world class talent. This model may be opposed by politicians in SL, as subject ministers won't be able to appoint their friends to its boards.
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@Jamz5251
One of Allah's 99 names is Al Wadud which means Most Loving. He should learn the basics of other religions before speaking about other religions 🤦
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Nikkei Asia has quoted me on the IMF program & Sri Lanka's economic reforms. Getting on an IMF program does not solve the problems but a lifeline to implement the right reforms. If we don't implement the right reforms, we will be back for another IMF deal.
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World Bank and ADB aid is also tied to the IMF deal and so will be bilateral assistance like from Japan. If Sri Lanka does not implement the needed reforms, we will be back at the IMF again like Argentina. These countries will not trust us again.
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@NewsWireLK
@AzzamAmeen
I highly doubt the international bondholders will agree to restructure when the same people who mismanaged and brought economy to this stage remain in power. Also, reforms are needs. Increasing direct taxes for high income earners, privatising SOEs and cutting govt expenditure.
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How important is fight corruption? What type of corruption is the worst?
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My interview for The Morning Hot Seat. I reply to the following questions as well :
1. Can a future government change the IMF program? Is there space for change?
2. Do we have an alternative to the IMF program?
3. What do we need to go beyond the IMF reforms? What are those
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@kanchana_wij
Good step in the right direction. Next need to break the CEB into 3 parts as recommended by JICA some time ago to increase operational efficiency.
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Honoured to be on the World Bank Global team at Deloitte which overlooks all World Bank projects by Deloitte. Completing half a year with the World Bank team.
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@LeongWaiKitCNA
@MFAsg
@VivianBala
@ASEAN
This is a big victory. Do not give up. Keep coming out in thousands. The Junta cannot continue like this as many generals within the Junta will revolt. Giving up means another decade of darkness.
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@NewsWireLK
@AzzamAmeen
Reminds me of how Sirisena used to say he got news from the next days papers.
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@_dhammikaperera
@ParliamentLK
@YapaMahinda
Ease of doing business would be a good area to start. Many do not register companies because closing a company can take over a year. I wrote about this and other things for FT in 2019. Implementing this would be very helpful
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The government talks of a digital Sri Lanka but the Technology Ministry has been only given Rs 5 billion. Transport and Highways has been allotted Rs 400+ billion. Raises questions on how genuine govt is on digitization.
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@HillaryClinton
@giufuliafa
Thank you Hillary for calling the attackers for what they really are
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So what exactly are the amendments the NPP is proposing? As the IMF staff level agreement was in public since last year, whatever amendments anyone is proposing can be made public now itself so we can all know.
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@NewsWireLK
@AzzamAmeen
I still remember the 2 panel discussions where I was there with Cabraal. These warnings were told to his face many months ago and still ignored. Also let's not forget the finance Minister who was missing from parliament for 4 months. Lack of accountability is the reason.
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Most important reform is independent CBSL. Germany had a very successful currency (pre-Euro) bc it's CB was independent & focused on price stability. I had written an article on CBSL independence which was quoted in an interview with former Pakistan CB Governor Reza Baqir. (cont)
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