Roderick van Zuylen
@roojoo3
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Roderick van Zuylen. CIO at Night Watch Investment Management. Reach out if you want to discuss stocks or triathlon / cycling.
WPB, FL / Boulder, CO
Joined January 2017
As we close the books on 2024, we are proud to see that many of our investment theses materialized. In 2024, Night Watch earned a USD return of 10.30%, net of all fees.
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Nobody seems interested in a Belgian small cap ($900m) analog foundry with low free float (<40%). However, if mgmt meets its own 2026 targets, $XFAB.PA has 4-5x potential. The automotive semi cycle also seems to be turning in Q3. Is this a timely value play? 1/n
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L'occitane ($973.hk) is a well known luxury brand that is trading at a discount (13x P/E) to peers $EL and $OR.FP because of its listing in HK. That in itself is not exciting, but $973 also owns Sol de Janeiro and Elemis, 2 high growth brands.
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Whoever is chasing $TDW stock higher on inside purchases, must have missed the 13G filings by Fredriksen in $VAL and the Maersk family in $NE
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The bear cases I've heard for VAL is "but look at the chart, price is king", "oil will go lower" or "JP Morgan says you have to put a multiple on 2025 ebitda". Kuppy lays out the bull case. Joke's on him for looking out all the way to 2026.
1) I keep adding to $VAL on a scale like a proper baggie… This is by far my largest position. ~20% of the world’s 7G floater fleet in a sector that has consolidated to 4 core players + a massive high spec JU fleet at ~$4b EV just seems wrong.
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They tried to introduce a billionaire tax and now see what happens.
Billionaires Bill Ackman, Marc Andreessen, and Travis Kalanick are reportedly getting involved in Department Of Government Efficiency, per FORTUNE.
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@theSamParr LVMH management once told me: "We could run the business with half of our employees. We just don't know which half.".
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Just finished the book Kaput, which explains how Germany went from being an industrial stronghold to being the joke of Europe. Always good to read a more structured argument of what went wrong. The book discusses the obvious (reliance on Russian gas) as well as the less obvious
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Next year I'm launching a 2x levered short $VAL and 2x levered short Europe ETF. You'll get all the diversification that comes with global investing and energy investing, without the negative impact on performance.
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Ping An ($2318.hk) just reported 4.85 hkd of eps for H1. H-shares trade at 34 HKD. 3.5x P/E? Their core life insurance business does 29% ROE. They've historically been shareholder friendly. You could argue about B/S risk, but they've spent years lowering their RE exposure.
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@ClarkSquareCap I met with them this week. The first Germans I've ever met who were late for a meeting. There was no clear story on how to get this business to fcf positive. A bit disappointing tbh.
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I met with $GOGO mgmt about a year ago. Their CEO and 20% shareholder Oakleigh Thorne is a serial entrepreneur who has built several companies which he's sold to Wolters Kluwer and Pearson. There are many things to like about $GOGO as an investment:. - 90% market share in
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After a 15 month process, I finally received my US Immigrant Visa that allows me to live and work in the United States. I will immigrate in 2 weeks. The next steps are to quit my job and launch my own investment fund in January. 2024 will be exciting!!! 1/2
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With the media industry facing renewed uncertainty due to the stranded negotiations between $CHTR and $DIS, it's useful to rewatch John Malone's annual interview with CNBC from last year. Some notes on his views on the industry:. Video.- The US bundle is.
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Last week at ICR I met with over 15 companies. Funnily, the most interesting one was the HK listed DPC Dash, a meeting where less than 5 analysts showed up. DPC operates the Domino's Franchise in China, and right now, their pizza is hot! 1/n
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Chairman and 70% shareholder considering a take private of $973.hk. He'd better offer a good price given that he's just tanked the share price by giving overly conservative margin guidance.
L'occitane ($973.hk) is a well known luxury brand that is trading at a discount (13x P/E) to peers $EL and $OR.FP because of its listing in HK. That in itself is not exciting, but $973 also owns Sol de Janeiro and Elemis, 2 high growth brands.
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I'm happy to say that my new firm, Night Watch Investment Management, is now in business. I'm planning to post more regular market updates as of January. For now, get a copy of our market outlook 2024 on our (new) website:.
After a 15 month process, I finally received my US Immigrant Visa that allows me to live and work in the United States. I will immigrate in 2 weeks. The next steps are to quit my job and launch my own investment fund in January. 2024 will be exciting!!! 1/2
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Dream International ($1126.hk) continues to comp positively (+65% YoY) due to Disneyland Tokyo reopening. $1126 makes their plush toys. This more than offset the destocking at $FNKO toys which they also make. 3.9x TTM P/E for a growing, >15% ROE company.
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Ice Cube said it first.
NEW - U.S. Surgeon General declares gun violence a "public health crisis." — NYT
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@benton_moss Local funeral service for pets. Unregulated, so the undertaker digs up the casket after each service and reuses it.
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I love reading good books that dive into the history of companies. Purple Revolution describes the history of $NU. I read it so I might finally understand why it's such a fintwit darling. Unfortunately this book reads like a prospectus, with chapters that list the company's risks
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@marketplunger1 Don't disagree with your conclusion, but what weight does Europe have here in international? To what extent does this just depict the decline of Europe?.
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I'm happy the holidays are over. I can't stand another person bragging about his 200% returns on crypto or TSLA or asking why you don't just buy the S&P500.
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Good update on $HAYPP's latest earnings. When an investment doubles it's a good time to check your assumptions to see if there is still enough upside. At 0.7x 2025 sales, HAYPP remains a bargain, especially if sales accelerate as low growth legacy Snus becomes smaller.
Newest out. Haypp Group: Further. $HAYPP $PM $BTI $MO $IMBBY $STG
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@BluthCapital Remember 2021 when companies would go up on the news they filed for ch11. We're not quite there yet but it's getting pretty dumb.
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Last year, @ToffCap published several articles on FlatexDegiro ($FTK.GY), Europe's best discount broker. Their stock was down in Dec 2022 on some temporary compliance issues, as well as lower retail trading volumes. The setup for FTK in 2024 looks promising. 1/n.
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@contextproblem Buy side yells 'fuck you' before hanging up the phone. Sell side hangs up the phone and then yells 'fuck you'.
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$HAYPP is a very underfollowed retailer of Snus and Nicotine Pouches. What other ecommerce businesses you know have 85% market share, does not spend on marketing and is growing >22% per year?.
Newest out. Haypp Group: Ahead of the Nicotine Pouch Megatrend. $HAYPP $PM $BTI $MO $IMBBY $STG
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When I started my career in investing, it was cool to say you are a contrarian. Today if you say you're a contrarian, you get a pitiful look, followed by "why don't you just buy stocks that go up?".
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Value stonks can expect another year of underperformance. Nobody cares about 15% fcf yields if you can earn 10,000% in a day.
If you have trumpcoin, which just generated more return in a few hours than the S&P has in four decades… then what do you need MSTR for?. Substitution effects.
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In a world where headlines drive stock prices, it pays to look under the hood. In the case of $HAYPP, Devin has done the hard work, sharing his more nuanced view below.
Newest out. Haypp Group: Rerouting. $HAYPP $PM $BTI $MO $IMBBY $STG
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$MRX is a clearer of futures and options exchanges. As such they are they glue between exchanges such as the CME/ICE/LME and whoever wants to trade futures. They can also act as an agent or market maker in similar trades, or provide clients with opaque hedging solutions.
When you have a call with a company 6 weeks after the IPO and they tell you you're the 5th investor they've spoken to, you know it's overlooked.
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It usually takes a few days before all the forced selling in spin-offs to end, but $K shareholders received about $0.05 of $KLG for every $1 invested in $K. Of course they're selling. $KLG is a margin improvement story. Investing in lower cost production will cost them 3 years.
By the way, so far $KLG and $VSTS are trading like 🗑️ 🚮.
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Next $VAL, $NE, $TDW analyst downgrading the sector because supply chain shortages in subsea and FPSOs are slowing down contracting for a few Qs deserves to get fired for being 2 months late to the party.
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Always helps the performance fee to pump something 2 days before year end in an illiquid market.
I am often asked for stock recommendations, but generally don’t share individual names unless I believe the risk versus the reward is extraordinarily compelling. As we look toward 2025, one investment in our portfolio stands out for large asymmetric upside versus downside so I.
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I'm crowd sourcing a name for a US based hedge fund. One that makes proud reference to my Dutch roots. How about:. 1. Dyke Capital.2. Tulip Invest.3. Batavia Capital.
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When you have a call with a company 6 weeks after the IPO and they tell you you're the 5th investor they've spoken to, you know it's overlooked.
Anyone looking into Marex $MRX? Recently listed, $1.4bn market cap. Grew profits 44% in FY23 and 141% yoy in Q1 24. Trading at <8x p/e on annualized Q1 earnings. Very eager to learn more.
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I've muted fungus months ago. The very fact that such a large group of generalists are so public about a niche sector is a huge a red flag.
For all the hate (and blocks) I got for not loving the fungus stock, I hate to say it but it feels pretty good to read @Biohazard3737 opinion. Thx for sharing 🙏 (can‘t retweet it as the account is not public but everyone interested in fungus might be following him anyway).
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For Q3, Night Watch IM reported 7.40% net of fees. YTD performance stands at 14.01%. Quarterly update below. Please sign up on our website if you want to receive future updates by email.
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I started working in finance after reading liar's poker and watching Wallstreet. But as a PM in Europe you now spend your time writing ESG engagement letters and incorporating climate risks in your incentive decisions. Where did we go wrong 🤔
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In the first quarter since the launch of our strategy, Night Watch earned a USD return of 6.82%, net of all fees. Please find the quarterly update on our website.
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L’Occitane Groupe doesn’t appear willing to pay 35HKD for $973.hk. A reminder that the ‘undisturbed price’ they reference was after $973 intentionally crashed their share price by guiding down margins to 12% by ramping discretionary marketing and ESG spend by 100m EUR.
Chairman and 70% shareholder considering a take private of $973.hk. He'd better offer a good price given that he's just tanked the share price by giving overly conservative margin guidance.
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With $USAP just showing with their Q3 results how strong demand is across the aerospace supply chain, let me explain why I'm so bullish on Montana Aerospace ($AERO.SW). Montana is a vertically integrated provider of aerospace structures. They make aluminium and titanium parts for
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It took me a while to understand this. US elections are not about convincing swing voters. They're about making sure your core voters turn up. Causing outrage through allegations of election fraud, dead squirrels or saying "democracy is on the line" gets people to vote.
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@Divergent7651 Not one bit. Every kid would claim they'd have bought NVDA 2 years ago. It's about being able to articulate an investment thesis today and about having passion for stocks.
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20% of a value investor's time is spent adding back stock-based compensation to adjusted earnings.
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$TPL is ripping as though somebody just found oil on their land.
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Some insights into $XFAB. So far XFAB has been another example on why not to invest in European value stonks. Automotive headwinds are lasting longer than initially thoughts and LTAs are of little help if there is no end market demand. Lots of upside once the market does turn. .
Had the call with #XFAB $XFAB IR (see below).
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All $VAL buyers who have been waiting for tax loss harvesting to end, unleashed!
Called the IT guy. $VAL is green and there must be a glitch somewhere… 🤣🤣. That was a painful 3 months, but think $VAL has bottomed, and I got a LOT of cheap stock along the way….
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@BisonInterests "Applicant needs to be in good health to survive all the company's steak BBQs.".
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@hkuppy on his way to buy some more $VAL. 2 back-to-back years with >100% net returns don't happen without conviction.
@Awesomecat250 Just bought another batch.
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A year ago I could understand the $AMRK short thesis. While I disagreed on the shorts' view on intrinsic value, earnings momentum was negative. With the business having bottomed in Q3 and improved / stabilized in Q4, I'm surprised that short interest has held up.
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One of the worst grifts in financial markets are class action lawsuits by shareholders against their own company. If you win, you end up paying yourself, minus millions in legal fees. And shareholders who don't participate in this grift end up paying the bill.
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Ironman was a publicly traded company from 2019 - when it got IPO'd by Dalian Wanda at $8/sh, until 2021, when it got acquired by Advance. The holdco $WSG was subsequently reacquired by Dalian Wanda for $2.55/sh. This is a great case study of underinvestment in a brand. First
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Great to see $XFAB insiders invest another 2.6b EUR post earnings. Melexis (~40% of XFAB revenues) confirmed the strong demand for their products in their earnings release, btw.
Mixed results for $XFAB today. Given cautious guidance from $STM, $TXN, $NXPI this week, and ambitious H2 growth embedded in XFAB's 2024 guidance, a guidance cut was expected. 7% lower rev at the mid-point seems minor. 1/n.
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Today I attended the $BLDR investor day where we visited a truss facility. The manufacturing efficiency was impressive. I have done many blue collar jobs in my life, but I was always slacking off. Here, everything was focussed on improving board feet per man hour.
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What to expect from Enad Global ($EG7.SS) this year?.- Uplisting to the Nasdaq OMX.- Buyback following uplisting.- Initiation of dividend.- Return to growth as MSM comps get lapped.- Ramp up in Capex -> lower FCF generation, but target of >25% ROI.
We just posted a 66-page research report on Enad Global 7 to our website. $EG7 is a Swedish-listed game developer trading at just 1.15x 2026E EBITDA and has ~28% of its market cap in cash today. Those interested can find the report on our website here -
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Solid earnings for $EG7.SS. The market continues to miss that the switch to work-for-hire lowers EBITDA margins, but improves EBITDA-to-FCF conversion. Lower capitalized development. Neutral for FCF. Trades at 6.5x EV/FCF.
Enad Global $EG7.SS down about 20% from its recent peak as it becomes clear that the popularity of their game ‘my singing monsters’ has peaked in Q1. Still only trading at <7x ev / normalised fcf. I can recommend you spend some time ‘researching’ the game.
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Disneyland Tokyo ($4661.JP) just reported their December quarter. Merchandise sales keep ramping, which benefits Dream International $1126.hk who manufactures plush Mickey Mouse toys.
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The spin-off of Ollamani has all signs of becoming an orphaned security. It won't have a GDR like the RemainCo (forced selling). There is very limited financial information, no clarity on stand-alone costs and unclear Capex requirements to make the Aztec stadium world cup ready.
Mexico's Grupo Televisa $TV is set to spin-off of its sports, gaming and some editorial operations over the next few days to focus on its core business. Spin effective Feb. 20. $TV's share price is bobbling at multi-year lows.
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Mixed results for $XFAB today. Given cautious guidance from $STM, $TXN, $NXPI this week, and ambitious H2 growth embedded in XFAB's 2024 guidance, a guidance cut was expected. 7% lower rev at the mid-point seems minor. 1/n.
Nobody seems interested in a Belgian small cap ($900m) analog foundry with low free float (<40%). However, if mgmt meets its own 2026 targets, $XFAB.PA has 4-5x potential. The automotive semi cycle also seems to be turning in Q3. Is this a timely value play? 1/n
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What to expect for H2 2023 from my favorite plush toy manufacturer ($1126.hk):. - Continued weakness in plastic toys due to $FNKO weakness. - Hard to replicate H1 plush margins of 30%, but YoY still growth due to reopening Disneyland. - Higher dvd payout. 40-50%, or 13-15% yld?
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@matthewstoller If any company is afraid that this rule hurts their business, maybe their product sucks.
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So this index buys SMCI at the top, only to sell after it crashes so it can buy PLTR and MSTR at the top. and somehow we can't beat this index 🤨.
NASDAQ 100 REBALANCING: $QQQ CHANGES EFFECTIVE DEC 23. ADDITIONS:.PALANTIR $PLTR.MICROSTRATEGY $MSTR.AXON ENTERPRISE $AXON. REMOVALS:.SUPER MICRO COMPUTER $SMCI.MODERNA $MRNA.ILLUMINA $ILMN
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$MRX has been one of our big winners for the year as the company continues to execute. First writeup on the company that I've come across 👇👇.
Published:
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EG7 showing how to host a CMD. It contained everything you might expect from a CMD and I highly recommend the presentation for everyone interested in this company or the gaming industry:. There were:.- ambitious financial targets for 2026 which imply 1.5x.
Related party transactions are never a great look, but $EG7.SS just lost $40m in EV for announcing a $15-23m investment. In my eyes, the new mgmt team enjoys some level of credibility that this investment is a decent R/R.
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BTW, I'm hearing there is a huge slowdown for $1126.hk in the US due to $FNKO. Capacity utilization dropped to 80% company-wide. This makes the 65% profit growth even more impressive. Not just Disneyland Tokyo driving this, but also DL Shanghai (growing >100%) and Hong Kong.
Dream International ($1126.hk) continues to comp positively (+65% YoY) due to Disneyland Tokyo reopening. $1126 makes their plush toys. This more than offset the destocking at $FNKO toys which they also make. 3.9x TTM P/E for a growing, >15% ROE company.
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The saga continues. $973.hk might be a French company, but it's in all regards acting like an EM stock.
L’Occitane Groupe doesn’t appear willing to pay 35HKD for $973.hk. A reminder that the ‘undisturbed price’ they reference was after $973 intentionally crashed their share price by guiding down margins to 12% by ramping discretionary marketing and ESG spend by 100m EUR.
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One of those days where I'm embarrassed to be from Amsterdam. Amsterdam used to have a strong Jewish heritage and has always been safe for people of all backgrounds. Unfortunately a bunch of Jihadis have now taken over the streets. My apologies to all the Jewish visitors✌🏽.
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Lots of background on $HAYPP. Devin clearly knows the industry well.
Podcast #236 is up!. @DevinLaSarre discusses his thesis on $HAYPP.
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@AlanMCole It's very country dependent. In the US, cycling feels like suicide. A country like Switzerland feels very safe, but the second you cross the border into Italy, cars are out to kill you again.
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For anyone selling European shares because of populist parties winning in elections, it might be worthwhile to check what the green policies of the last decade have done to economic growth.
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$AMRK now that the pre-market dumping is over.
There it is. $AMRK with an adjusted EPS of $0.42, with commentary that this should be trough earnings. We have now seen what AMRK earns in a weak environment. April and May saw expanding spreads. The next 2 Qs should also benefit from the coins sold back to AMRK at a discount.
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Q2 was a difficult quarter for us value guys. Night Watch reported -0.62% in Q2, bringing the YTD returns in USD to 6.16%. Quarterly update below. Please sign up on our website if you want to receive future updates by email.
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