Oh Come On!
@BluthCapital
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"There's always money in the banana stand." - George Bluth Sr, 2003 Tweets ≠ Advice. DoYourOwnDueDiligence
New Canaan, CT
Joined March 2012
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
He didn’t just hate the railway as such; he hated the way it flattered people with the illusion of progress. What was the point of scientific advance without moral advance? The railway would merely permit more people to move about, meet & be stupid together.
-Julian Barnes
$TWTR
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Hey
@federalreserve
if the most popular phone in the USA goes from $699 to $829 in 1 year for same storage, while losing a wall charger and headphones, does that 18.6% show up anywhere in the official inflation numbers?
@neelkashkari
I'm not trolling. This is a serious question.
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1 year ago $NVDA was $230 / share.
Just reported a 33% decrease in EPS and 20% decrease in revenue and is $225.
It lost $1.6B in revenue to $6B; trades at 20x *annualized revenue.*
If it got $GOOG’s multiple it’s a sub $50 stock. And it’s a WAY worse business.
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Fun fact:
$NFLX used to count viewership as watching 70% of a show.
Now it's just 2 minutes.
This created a 35% boost in viewership per the company.
6 Underground has a 37% / 62% Rotten Tomatoes score.
The TITLE screen appears at... 2:57.
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The absolute biggest asset the market is sleeping on is Waymo.
It’s won.
$GOOG
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ZYN Q1 usage at 131.6M - 80% YoY grow; annualizes to 526M which would be 36% growth *assuming flatline rest of year*.
This is the fastest growing CPG product in...50 yrs? W a 5.5% dividend? Bigger, faster, safer, and *not kids* (unlike Juul)
$PM should be $150
ZYN Q4 usage alone was 116.3*15 / 90 19.4M pouches/day
$PM
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$GOOG as the antitrust bogeyman is pretty fun because the company - by the longest distance ever measured - provides the most free services to consumers worldwide in the history of business.
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PlayStation has over 100 million GPUs sitting idle during school hours on home internet GB plans w low latency IP for online gaming but, sure, $TSLA is going to do something magic with their lowest-cost possible $25k car CPUs.
Idiots. Idiots everywhere.
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Better Call Saul is as good as Breaking Bad and I can’t explain why it’s nowhere near as big.
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$TSLA once said it had 2 million Cybertruck reservations and per wikipedia it's sold out through 2027.
Per the Tesla website you can get one this month.
Biggest flop.
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A young VC analyst once told me over ☕️ that Lemonade “was like the coolest startup ever” then proceeded to explain... how insurance works.
As a former auditor of insurance companies I could not process how to respond.
Felt more like a boomer reading this S-1 than I did opening Tik Tok the first time
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Time for a SPAC ATTACK, and I do mean "attack."
Let's walk through $VGAC, Virgin Galactic Acquisition Corp, which is going to put $759M ($509 & 250 PIPE) into perenially profitless, nobody-wants-to-acquire-so-lets-SPAC-it-to-the-hacks, 23andMe $ME
FOUNDED 2006: 15 yrs old!
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“I’m building the Berkshire Hathaway of…..” = 🚩🚩🚩
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IoT
Batteries w/o any trade offs
Hyperloop
ICOs
Shitcoins
1 million Robotaxis
Solar Roof
FSD
NFTs
StableCoins
Fake Meat
Plant Milk
Space Tourism
Flying Cars
FTX magic beans
AI doodles change everything
Room Temp superconductors
Guys this is just the last 5 years.
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Every bumper collision breaks the whole hatchback which will need to be replaced. Insurance rates will be insane.
Look how every. other. car. is. designed.
$TSLAQ
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James Cameron asking questions that aren't allowed to be asked.
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Strangest thing I've seen public markets that all the value of robotaxis is being allocated to $TSLA and none to $GOOG which is actually doing it.
It's as if Pfizer was shipping an Alheizers cure while market bids up $PG for saying Head and Shoulders Beta includes scalp tingles.
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$NVDA data center grew 11% which is a joke. It’s dead. It’s growing less than pricing increases on cereal.
This was the bull case. NVDA is a post-growth company
$NVDA The Data Center biz was *the bull case.*
I charted how ONE big Q delivered layup "YoY" %s for 4 Qs.
That's seemingly over.
I charted QoQ and Rev Breakout.
See how QoQ is... flat.
Gaming got p0wned like a n00b.
Denominator effect tricks.
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$TSLA has raised $2B, twice, in 8 mos. Both times stating it was unneeded.
You can believe in its future but its actions in the present show it 👏 has 👏 no 👏 money.
Checks bounce
Warranty repairs denied
Swaps employee vacay for car discounts bf firing them (no $ payout)
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One reason millennials might be embracing socialism is bc “capitalism” means the 2nd richest person in the country is someone, over a 30 yr career, who has never created a penny of net profits. (Along with violating securities laws & telling the SEC to fellate him.)
$TSLAQ
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$Z is the only person I know who’s lost money in real estate in the last year.
And they have an alleged data advantage.
'Zillow is listing more than half of the homes it owns in its key cities for less than it originally paid for them.'
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Single datapoint (well a couple) but handful of boomers I know have basically moved net worth into 10Y & 20Y at 5%. Interest easily covers entire lifestyle (houses are paid off, kids through school) and the plan is literally travel & dining until health degrades.
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@EnronChairman
It's also an incredible story of a professional brokerage service that markets itself to professionals that not only couldn't quote a correct price but actually allowed trades to go through at a price it seemingly knew was incorrect.
IB beats its chest as the most robust.
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A 6% price cut on a 15% margin car is a 40% profit drop.
$TSLA
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$NVDA was impressive yet over 30% of rev mapped to an A/R increase? $4.5B?!
You're telling me your customers have the cash to pay you... Just not right now, but soon... Was 30% of the Q?
W $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT as major customers?
Are those customers startups NVDA is round tripping?
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@andrewrsorkin
This is exactly what happened w Tesla 2 yrs ago. Instead of investigating why a barely solvent car company does a U turn from $150 to $900 in 9 mos you instead would invite on a promoter that says "$4,000/share."
You were an enabler, but you don't have to be anymore...
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Spoke to a BAML guy this wkd on recession risks. He said their massive internal credit card data is pretty robust.
It’s looking “pre pandemic normal, slightly better.”
Making comparisons of 2021-2023 vs now moves the goalposts the wrong way. Those were mega boom times.
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The commodity cycle bust previously always involved leveraging up for new projects in a flat/increasing interest rate environment.
Demand drops, huge debt overhang, no bank will refi the debt at lower rates, equity crushed.
Why I think this time is different:
🧵y 🍽💨👇
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It was nice seeing Hwang arrested but also infuriating it happened only after blowing up. $GSX was the most obvious fraud I'd ever seen and 5 min of research made that clear. It's price performance and leadership made it anything but unknown.
And it was only bc of VIAC.
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Just checked a gas station near me. 100% sold out.
$PM was at >100M tins/Q and *it's sold out everywhere.*
Market giving $CELH a better mutliple is laughable. 37% YoY growth is cute for a >80 P/E. ZYN may hit 100% & PM's fwd PE is <20 w a 5% dividend
$PM should be $250
ZYN shortage is affecting everyone, including Haypp.
$PM $HAYPP
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Uh is WSB coming in to $MO because it's a weed play and has a lot of cash?
"They have nearly the same amount of CASH as TLRY is worth at a whole."
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$MO issued a whopping 29% of its entire debt stack in a 10mo post covid window ($7.5B) w an wtd avg of 20 yrs maturity at wtd avg rate of 3.3%; 73% of stack in last 4.5 yrs.
Over the next 5 yrs it owes 21% of its stack at 3.1%
It has a 7 year gap in maturities starting 2032.
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“Musk had said that by 2020 the plant each wk would churn out enough solar-panel shingles to cover 1,000 roofs…the plant averages just 21.”
$TSLAQ currently called $TSLA’s claims impossible from the start.
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Over 20 yrs I can count 8 bottle fads:
Thermos
Nalgene
Sigg
S’well
Yeti
Stanley
Hydroflask
KleenKanteen
What drives this? Corporate gifting being idealess and needing to move on to substitutes?
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What's your best sub 10 PE stock actively returning meaningful capital to shareholders?
I miss my AER at a 6.5 PE...
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$AAPL has gone up 300% in 2.5 years on a 🧐 10% increase in diluted EPS.
That is $1.6TRILLION of market cap on about $5-7B of incremental income.
Market multiple expansion has been about $90/share of value.
Passive flows are the equivalent of a PE firm marking up its own book.
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I starred all the times we were assured to NeverSell this era-defining business.
Why aren’t we hearing it now? Shouldn’t we be hearing it more during selloffs?
$SHOP
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$SHOP round trips to its covid low.
“Everyone has a qualitative Substack and Right Tail thesis until the Fed raises rates 1.5%“
-Mike Tyson
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Uh Druck bought $100M $PM *and $PM calls.*
Stanley Druckenmiller latest 13F is out.
He exited both $NVDA and $IWM calls at the top.
Absolute 🐐
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Some moats are destroyed by greed. How much profit was forever lost bc some $PG MBA kept raising prices bc he thought he could?
A whole generation of millennials that don't care one bit about Gillette. Harrys still 30% cheaper at $COST of all places.
$BRK
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$PM earnings prediction tomorrow AM:
Disappoints bc of ZYN stockouts, but guides higher bc of ZYN efforts.
I will buy that dip.
The only 3 products I can think of that are capacity restrained at max utilization are $ASML machines, $NVDA GPUs, and ZYN.
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This stuff is so overrated wrt factory help, which are the most optimized sqft on earth & perfectly suited to *not* need general purpose robotics.
Eg an assembly line means all robots can be fixed in place - no need to walk anywhere.
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@JFrankensteiner
“Are you OK?”
“Better than you were the day you liked Starship Troopers” 😂
@KlendathuCap
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@JosephPolitano
Does this say what you think it says?
That with TWO incomes we got...6 more cars and just 10% greater home ownership?
That's a colossal failure.
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Literally tweeted for a year when $AER was 6x earnings but top finance ppl couldn't bear that GE had a stake to sell.
That AER was buying directly from profits.
GE finished and THEN it hits Sohn conference w exact same thesis (that it's dirt cheap) and rises 50%.
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So it seems, this time around, the cure for high prices must be HIGH STOCK PRICES. Otherwise the gusher of cash flow is going to just buy stock. THAT'S the most profitable use of funds.
And mgmt has a dozen cover stories to blame instead.
It's an amazing setup.
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I didn’t think he could top his Bear Stearns call. That was 5 days after saying Bear was “fine.”
$SIVB was toast *six hours* after this tweet
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What’s a plausible explanation for why $NFLX movies are so bad? With their budget and years in the business you’d think they’d have a single good big budget movie by now.
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This was promised when the co was on the verge of bankruptcy desperately needing to raise funds in Spring 2019. Billion dollar outright fraud. $TSLA
General Motors $GM owned Cruise Automation has been granted California's first permit to charge for driverless rides according to Bloomberg
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$SHOP grew Q4 revenue 47%...🤯
That's... $161M...🤷♂️
Added $7.7B in market cap...🤔
Which is 48x the increase...🤦♂️
And ~7,700x the incremental profit earned...🤯
Any investment here is Ponzi finance: no chance of ever earning you're money back in your lifetime.
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@michaeljburry
Former MIT Admissions Director
@MarileeJones
Racist comments shot. Racist accusations chaser. And quite another chaser.
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nibbled some $CELH today.
Pepsi bought out Sodastream at 6x rev; currently at 5x rev.
You know Pepsi will happily buy it.
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I don't care if there's "No Recession!" $AAPL is up 60% while it's EPS estimates have fallen ~13%.
Stocks making ATHs after EPS estimates have fallen for 12 months...
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@dampedspring
@BobEUnlimited
You should call it "Fed Zeppelin"
Everything is slow speed, it hovers over everything, *lands slowly,* and you can tweet "ramble on" for 3 years
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My default thinking is $AMZN’s logistics are ruthlessly efficient.
Then I order 2 watch batteries and I wonder…
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Gotta say my cannabis "overhyped" thesis did not consider seeing white collar train commuters slipping gummies on the commute.
The market may be bigger than I thought. Like, a lot bigger.
Strong opinions loosely held.
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I’m still thinking about how a company blew through 40% of its cash in 90 days, told investors it’s under control, 14 days later demonstrated the CFO had no idea what’s going on, raised at a 52 wk low, & the market just loved it. Dilute me as much as possible!
It’s. so. strange.
I really cannot comprehend how $PTON raising is good news if it is demonstrating:
1. It can’t seem to run on its cash flow
2. Raising at 52 week lows
Ray Pekurny needs a loan for his gym.
This market has such little connection between financials and stock price.
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What is the best single-season of TV ever, that can stand on its own for a full narrative experience?
I can't think of anything besides Westworld Season 1 but would love to know anything close.
(Nip/Tuck The Carver season is up there.)
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$DASH gained $3B intraday on news it will be an option to deliver same-day groceries for Albertson’s $ACI.
ACI’s market cap is $9B. Somehow that delivery of a small percent of its revenues is worth more profit than selling the food itself.
How is FedEx not worth $8T by now?
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For those mids going Gaga over $NVDA
MC tomorrow $1.3T $16B in cash Revenue $14B *revenue* $13B
$GOOG $1.6T $118B in cash *earnings* $18B
Google has 10x the cash and earns more in profit than $NVDA takes in revenue and the market caps are in the same stadium.
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Every bit of data available shows $TSLA is actually experiencing worse declines in sales than the airlines, w/o the benefit of keeping cash from non-refundable fares.
It has a weaker balance sheet, a Chinese & CA factory, & needs supplies to build cars.
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Subprime lender $CACC 1.8% off it’s all time highs after CEO states “the current crisis will very likely be the toughest one yet.”
It’s amazing.
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Why isn’t $RDFN more profitable?
The app is one of the best user experiences I’ve ever experienced. Zero other brokerages put the user first their websites are still garbage.
Redfin IS the MLS for younger folks.
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So the game is now to make a compelling opening (heist, fight, slow set up to a joke) and if the viewer thinks "that was dumb" and exits during the credit montage... Still counts as a "view." $NFLX
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FF. Josh posts data rich stuff and gets you 80% (90%? 95%?) of the info you need to know on oil.
He’s like a TL;DR summarizer of the copious amount of public energy data out there.
Stunning chart from
@GoldmanSachs
on oil. Omicron didn't cut into oil inventory declines. Even pervasive fear-mongering and government mandated lock downs couldn't knock growing oil demand off-course. This oil bull market could have legs.
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So many tweeps wondering where it came from:
Netflix Investor Relations site, Financial Highlights.
Circled the 70%, hilarious they put the 2 minutes part into a footnote on the same page. It's such a joke they didn't even want to own up to it. 🙄
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$X is $18/share. It earned $14ish per share last year.
Bought back $150M shares Q4, just added $500M to buyback.
Has $2.5B cash against $5B MC.
the only hope for high mult tech is economy doesn't tank, and if that's the case $X is mathematically exponential.
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Good ep w
@WallStCynic
He correctly points out the initial cracks bf the dotcom crash involved Lucents and Ciscos having venture arms that invested in startups…to buy the equipment from itself.
Exactly what $MSFT $AMZN $NVDA $GOOG are doing w cloud services.
Oh and 👇
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The “Everything App” is just a preamble to IPO it with the largest hand-waving TAM possible before actually achieving anything how do you all not see The Playbook by now.
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Tiger asked deep and thoughtful questions and…offered a term sheet 1 hour later.
This contradiction was posted without irony. The entire thread is recipients of quick, little-diligenced money raving about Tiger and was published 1 week from the $QQQ peak.
Art.
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$CVS should be $250 today. $BRK, $AMZN, & $JPM - explicitly colluding to launch a co w/o a profit motive that would have >1M covered employees Day 1, gave up pre-product.
Name a wider moat. I’ll wait.
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Here's a fun PE play that is surely problematic but man I'd love to see it happen.
$SAVE's EV is sub $7B, MC is $1B at $10/share
If deal breaks SAVE falls to $3-4.
Yet 202 A320s in a high-demand used market (AER bought 50 for $108M each list prices) could be worth $20B now
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A little post earnings refresher on how $MO's debt is a Masterclass of Value and how buybacks free up CF (saved div payments) in excess of lower yielding debt.
BBs of 10% stock effectively "retire" 1.7x the payment of 4% interest debt.
Math is fun!
Were $MO to cut div to $0 & divert all divs to its debt stack, it would be debt free in under 4 years.
1 yr of dividends ($6.8B) covers the principal on all maturities through 2029 (& the $1.2B leftover & interest saved in the interim) covers that 2029 $2B.
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If you don’t follow
@jam_croissant
this is completely irrational and nonsensical.
Know the game you are playing. It changes over time.
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I am out of $CVS. These ongoing acquisitions weren’t the thesis.
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“Cars sold to Hertz have no discount” becomes “no contract has been signed.”
Publicly lying about Revenue to >50M accounts and, of course, the public at large.
CEO: “Landed a HUGE contract.”
Reality: No contract…
…has ALWAYS BEEN FRAUD.
to be absolutely clear, yes, ofc this is exactly what it looks like, and Elon should pay a multi-billion fine and be barred from being a public company officer. but obvs that won't happen, so i just laugh, which is the only recourse available
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Chevron ruling on FDA and tobacco should have sent $MO and $PM up 400% lol.
They have the licenses (competitive moat) but the micromanagement of their offerings.
Banning menthol “just because” without congress weighing in….
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The “everyone wins” proposition of hybrids was obvious w physics, price, and infrastructure a decade ago.
It’s a shameful state of affairs that politicians chose a quixotic EV quest and proves how out of touch they are w the country’s most fundamental aspect of life: locomotion.
WSJ: “.. dealers said they expressed concern that more customers are looking for a middle ground between conventional gas-engine cars and EVs ..”
@WSJ
$GM
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Today I learned a group of bears is called a sleuth.
Very fitting for $TSLAQ.
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Harvard's board of electors could do the funniest thing right now...
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If $NTDOY "pulls an Adode" with SaaS subscription for the back catalog *AND* sells new hardware and games for profit, isn't that *the best business model that's ever been created?*
It's $SPOT/$NFLX but owns the IP.
It's $ADBE but doesn't need R&D
It's $DIS w/o the marketing.
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Every person who ever bought $SNOW since it's IPO is underwater or barely breakeven.
Great company, but outrageous price.
FCF was $60M. MC is $45B.
Show me how this pencils. Get FCF to $1B/yr & you're at 45x plus all the dilution along the way.
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Indisputable:
$AMC became worth more than $TWTR this week because of AMC's management, public relations, and finance function.
Think about that. AMC is better at using social media to sell a future than Jack.
Think about that once more.
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Here's a long term thesis:
After Jobs died and Cook took over, $AAPL fell to 10x earnings on "he's no Jobs" and lack of larger screen sizes.
When Buffett passes, decent chance there is a similar Narrative Vacuum. Combs & Weschler's performance doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
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The obsession with weaning Americans off tobacco while we legalize cannabis, introduce sports gambling, and seemingly add alcohol to every venue and product (alcoholic Topo Chico and Mtn Dew! Ranch *water*: Water, but with alcohol!) befuddles me.
$MO
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SEC discusses clawbacks & w/i 2 wks Tesla rises a couple hundred billion on "news" of a $4B rev deal.
Then Musk queries Twitter about selling 10% of his shares and will be bound by results.
The Bot King himself.
@GaryGensler
he's playing your for a fool.
And he's winning.
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$MO Q4
Is half your market cap returned in 5 yrs a good thing? Like MSFT doing a $300B buyback every year.
Nicotine isn't tobacco. It's everlasting. Just manage the transition and the golden idol is won.
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These are literally the deposits that left $FRC in the last few days. There has never been a more ludicrous finance “life imitates art” than this👇
Statement from Yellen, Powell, Gruenberg, and Hsu:
"Today, 11 banks announced $30 billion in deposits into First Republic Bank. This show of support by a group of large banks is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system."
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$MO goes ex dividend tomorrow, meaning on a 366 day time frame you make $0.90*5 = $4.50 / $50.20 = 8.96%
If you think the Covid low of $30.95 is the floor, that's 23.4% on value at risk.
In a ZIRP world. W markets at ATHs, for the single greatest performing stock of all time.
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$AMZN built the Internet’s railroad.
$SHOP is building the internet's highway.
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Whatever your opinions, has a Marketimg VP ever destroyed so much value so quickly? The job, fundamentally, is "increase sales." You get the job by claiming to know the customer and market.
I'm surprised by this severity, but also I don't work in beer marketing. $BUD
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Crypto only experiences solvency problems, not a liquidity problems, because there are no underlying assets tied to real world profit-making activities.
Come on folks this isn’t hard.
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Every time I use a Peloton I am renewed in my incredulity that John Foley, a Founder CEO, could fail at $39/mo for a single-genre content company with a single recording studio and rabid fan base even *after* being given a sheltering mandate that closed ALL competition. $PTON
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