Republican Wx
@republicanwx
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Those of you betting on an East Coast Florida Major Hurricane strike this season might not want to consider ever playing the lottery.😂 The 500mb look for Aug-Oct is a East Coast and a West Coast Ridge a look far too common for the past two decades during the peak of the
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@LiveStormChaser
Haven’t watched The Weather Channel since 2020, all they play now is long-form garbage. But wake me up when Jim Cantore gets laid off.
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"FOR LAUGHS AND GIGGLES!" The same GFS that bluffed so badly with Ian.😆
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12z GFS with a Cat.3 major hurricane into Port Lavaca on June 25th. As believable as this is with the record warm Gulf I’m just not buying it.🍻
#GFS
#GFSFails
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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I'm hoping for something like this.🤣 IYKYK
This is a photo I’m hoping to see next month or so in the Atlantic. Tasty sub-900 mb. I do have a passport ready to go. 🤔
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All this talk of a stronger Bermuda High this season. It’s only late-June and the Euro/EPS has a strong signal for the wave exiting Africa in a few days to recurve after the NE Caribbean.😂
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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Those ECMWF Weeklies clearly are overcooked and not materializing. Have almost every week saved back to late June and they keep busting. I can say with confidence that this season will not be hyperactive, starting to question whether above average is a stretch.
#Tropics
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I’m surprised no one is talking about the quick spin up over the next couple of days on the Euro just east of The Bahamas. 06z ECMWC/EPS is even more bullish something rounding the “death ridge” over the NE U.S. and plowing into the East Coast of Florida as a TD/TS. Surprised
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Since most of the attention is currently on
#Beryl
. The July CANSIPS came out and there’s a pretty BIG shift on the precipitation anomalies for a recurve-heavy season. Gulf of Mexico is noticeably drier along with the area around Florida. Still a wetter than average Caribbean
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June CANSIPS hot off the press. Wetter than average for entire MDR, Gulf, and SE U.S. coastline.🌀😳
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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Consensus growing on a strong TS or Hurricane affecting Florida’s East Coast next Thursday. Yet still no invest tag. Can’t believe this is two weeks before Thanksgiving.😵💫
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@animalcrossing
Still awaiting Brewster and Gyroids. Would be nice if there was a legit update for the one year anniversary that brought these two things at least.
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Warm waters alone doesn’t equal more storms/hurricanes in the Atlantic. One thing that sticks out to me is the anonymously warmer than average SST’s off Eastern Canada when compared to the Tropical Atlantic east of 60°W. Could be why AEW’s have been anemic at best this season
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@jtunlimited1
@RiseFallNick
She helped NEITHER of those. In fact she hurt them and their chances of survival on Nick. Korra was booted to burn-off on and Nicktoons. While Miraculous got the boot off the network completely not even a year after its debut.
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06z EPS. Less members show a deepening hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean graveyard. Hence why only two members go over Hispaniola now.
#95L
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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I think it’s starting to become safer to say that the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be at least historic. Potentially rivaling big dogs such as 1933, 2005, and 2020 (if you want to count the name storm spam😂). If we’re lucky it’ll pull a 2010 and not be too deadly.🤞🏼
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Just thought I’d post the 00z EPS for 45 Days from June 17th. Keep in mind we had Cat.5
#Beryl
and Chris since then. Goes to show you how pathetically bad the global models are performing at sniffing out potential TC candidates. This kind of flop is something I’d expect in 20
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The Tropical Wave about to exit West Africa is all the talk since the the 12z Euro OP has a strengthening 995mb storm tracking NW through the SE Bahamas at Day 10. Of course the 12z EPS has up trending with the majority of it’s members recurving it north and east before Florida.
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Jim Williams at
@HurricaneCity
released his annual Top 20 predictions. Palm Beach and Miami are in the Top 10. But his biggest concern is The Bahama Islands, especially The Abacos. Last thing I’d want to see is another Dorian or even Matthew. Not only is that severely
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My guess on why the GFS doesn’t have this feature is because it’s too busy creating yet another phantom storm from enhanced vorticity that it loves to spin up off the Guajira Peninsula in Colombia. But it’s the classic “Ridge Over Trouble Waters” look on the Euro and shouldn’t
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August or June?🤔 It’s 16 days out so HOPEFULLY it’s wrong and the switch magically flips. The fact that 1999 is the only comparable season with an extended seamlessly never-ending lull is astonishing, and that was a 2nd year La Niña season.
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What is up with all these mid-latitude lows and cutoff lows? All this chatter of a west-based season and I just don’t see it when looking at this.
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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Weather weenies getting all excited when only like a dozen of the 50 or so members develop the 0/20% area.😂
#Tropics
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@ACWorldBlog
They need to come out with a HUGE update for New Horizons ASAP or I’m losing total interest in this game! Tomorrow will be 14 months since it’s release and still no Brewster or let alone Gyroids which were in the original Animal Crossing since day 1!
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Not even two months into 2024 and the greatest global model of all time the GFS is back to “Generating Fantasy Storms” in the North Atlantic Basin. This was 00z and of course it’s gone on 06z.
#GFSFails
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12z EPS pretty much killing off any chance of that 0/30% AOI making a name for itself.😔 Yesterday’s 18z EPS on the right to show you how bullish it went.
#FLwx
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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Never too early to start season canceling. Can’t even buy a single tropical cyclone in a favorable MJO environment.🤦🏽♂️ A 20+ named storm season is looking unlikely if this persists.
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
We'll have had anomalous rising motion (green -VP anomalies) focused over W Caribbean/E Pacific for over half of June and very warm SSTs and still it looks like it'll be a struggle to even get one tropical cyclone out of the pattern
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Figured yesterdays bullish 12z Euro was a fluke. The majority of todays 00z Euro Ensembles keep it weak and into Central America or Mexico. GFS is the only global model with a formidable hurricane now.
#95L
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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CFS has been trending with a very unfavorable UL Shear environment all across the Atlantic as we head into peak season. Quite the contrary of what it was showing for August and September a few weeks ago.
#SeasonCancel
?
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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18z GFS trended south into St. Augustine Thursday afternoon as a moderate-TS.
#FLwx
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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12z EPS hinting that we should watch the NW Caribbean in 15 days. Of course if anything forms in that region my best guess is that it’s heading NE towards Florida (which I have a gut feeling could be under siege a lot this season).
#FLwx
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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Very +NAO coupled with a PNA that’s trying to trend negative could be bad for U.S. hurricane impacts IF the tropics decide to wake up before the last week of August. All I can say is have your hurricane plan in place because this years steering pattern is the complete opposite
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Worth pointing out that the recent 29 runs of the CFS has been trending with more Subtropical Atlantic ridging, especially west of 60°W. It’ll be interesting to see if the entirety of August can produce and not just the last 7-10 days of the month like we’ve seen over the years.
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1/ The latest May ECMWF Seasonal Outlook for the upcoming 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is probably the most dangerous and bullish one that I’ve ever seen. With 23 Named Storms, 13 Hurricanes, and an ACE 200% of normal along with a dangerous 500mb steering pattern the opens the
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Most impressive TW to exit Africa yet. And models do nothing with it, even the CMC dropped its support.🥱
#Tropics
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3 most likely paths for our “potential” E. Caribbean AOI. The path west and an abrupt turn NE over Hispaniola or Cuba and The Bahamas seems most likely at the moment. A path a lot like Bonnie or Julia took into CA is less likely for now. Still like to see the Euro jump aboard.
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It's the CFS so take it with a grain of salt. But today's run shows "Alberto" forming in the NW Caribbean the first week of June then tracking NE across Western Cuba and South Florida around June 10th-11th. Today's EPS also hints at something similar around the same timeframe.
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Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF have a pretty potent wave briefly attempting to try and spin up in 7-8 days on approach to Trinidad and Tobago. Of course the GFS is likely being too bullish with the 850mb vorticity. Should fall apart quickly as usual for this time of year in the
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Euro and to a lesser extent the GFS seem to be latching onto a wave set to move off Africa into the Atlantic Friday. Not sure I buy the bullish 12z Euro/EPS output considering wind shear and SAL will be ruling the Atlantic this next week. Worth watching!
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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12z GFS just doing GFS things with our 0/40% AOI. The 12z Euro is probably the most likely outcome considering it’s November and not August or September.😂 Should make for icky weather mid-late next week for the Florida peninsula at least regardless.
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00z EPS starting to hint at Western Caribbean mischief in roughly two weeks. With the NAO forecasted to stay negative a UL trough over the SE or Eastern U.S. should pull anything North and East towards Cuba, The Bahamas, and Florida.
#Tropics
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Take it FWIW since it’s the GFS. But it has landfall of future-Invest 93L just west of PCB, FL Wednesday morning as a 977mb hurricane.
#Tropics
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Feeling that the +AMO/-PDO/El Niño combination will be detrimental to both Atlantic and East Pacific in the end (more so the Atlantic). Also think that extreme SST warmth off E. Canada could be the reason why waves are struggling to stay alive in the Tropical Atlantic.
#Tropics
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The GFS which is already off to a rough start in the East Pacific just produced its first phantom-cane on today’s “Happy Hour” run. New season, same old GFS.😑
#GFS
#GFSFails
#HappyHourGFS
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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Interesting to see this semi-permanent TUTT has been present all month with no sign of leaving anytime soon. Good news for U.S. East Coast residents as this will off any TC that goes north of the Caribbean and towards the U.S. coast. CFS has been hinting that this should stick
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@RiseFallNickBck
What a way to end what was once a beloved franchise. R.I.P. The Fairly Oddparents (2001-2023)
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Unless the NAO does a total 180° flip goes way positive by the end of next month I don’t see how the ECMWF is predicting storm tracks towards the SE U.S. from Cabo Verde waves. An East Coast trough has been present for the most part since mid-Spring.
#Tropics
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Geez! A bit too aggressive if you ask me. What are these forecasters seeing that I’m not? I’m puzzled…🤔
#Tropics
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#Beryl
is well on its way to becoming the seasons first hurricane and maybe major
hurricane if the GFS and Hurricane Models are correct. Hard to believe the Euro has only a weak Tropical Storm going through the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean. Still think at least some gradual
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GFS now drops development with the 10/30% AOI east of The Bahamas. In my opinion development chances are less than 10%. NEXT!!!
#FLwx
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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Latest HWRF on Invest
#90L
turns future-Larry into an annular hurricane. What’s with this year being about annular hurricanes, not that I don’t mind!?😉🌀
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Not buying the GFS in regards to the 0/30% AOI approaching 30°W. It’s the only model showing significant development now from this. Euro and CMC keep it an open wave.
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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What trough? Climatology wins again! If this were mid-late October the Florida peninsula would be more certain than not.
#Ian
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Florida looks to be red hot in the crosshairs if this pans out.😳
#Tropics
1/ Very wet look in the deep tropics for the months of Jun-Aug, before drying off a bit in Sep per the CFS. An active WAM, combined with a very +AMO is likely responsible for this look. Very curious to see whether the deep tropics are more unstable than the 2011-2022 period.
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FWIW, 06z Euro has a TC now in 4 days out of our 0/30% AOI when compared to the 00z run at the same time. Let’s see if it sticks on this afternoon’s 12z run.
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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Season canceled, see y’all next year!😏👋🏼
A massive sinking cell is forecasted to park in the ATL for almost the entirety of August then a rising cell is forecasted to park in the east pacific in September which will shear the ATL to death. Don't be surprised if Don ends up being the strongest system this year
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Be willing to bet this busts like all the others I posted.😂 But that's a pretty solid recurve pattern if not.
#Tropics
🎣
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12z Euro with a TD or weak-TS into Hobe Sound, FL next Thursday morning. Most of the weather would be over the Treasure Coast in this solution.
#FLwx
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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@OOCGinger
Nicktoons the channel didn’t really start tanking ⬇️ until May 2014 when that annoying rebrand happened.
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Latest 12z Euro now takes that vorticity NE across Central FL and out into the Atlantic where it spins up a tropical cyclone in 5 days. You also have an area of vorticity cross the Tehuantepec pass from the pacific and develop quickly before going back NW into Mexico.
#Tropics
Interesting vorticity max in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z set of models seemed to trend toward more development of this feature after it crosses Florida and moves NE over the next few days. This disturbance could bring significant rains to FL regardless of development.
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Invest
#95L
sure has a lot of work to do. Definitely thinking the Euro is more correct than the GFS or even CMC.
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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⬇️This didn’t age well at all!😬 Be curious to see how well this years does. NMME isn’t as juiced as the previous months. Pick your poison!☠️
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
Wow- the ECMWF+UKMET superblend* for August-October 2023 -the heart of hurricane season- remains very active! 🌀
It shows above normal rainfall (🟢) in the eastern and central Atlantic, across the islands, near Florida, and along the Southeast U.S. coast, suggestive of the
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@HyperSchedules
I’m a little surprised that they haven’t pulled iCarly or Henry Danger thanks to “Queit On Set”. But considering Nickelodeon doesn’t care or even supports what happen in a way them not being pulled yet doesn’t surprise me.
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I’m sure 2013/Season Cancel posts will be running rampant if this is the case. Most people are expecting a repeat of July 2005 it feels like. (Not happening in my opinion!🤣)
#Tropics
#TwitterWx
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Reason why the Euro doesn’t develop the wave has to do with it outrunning the ULAC. Considering trade winds are still ripping I’m yet again having a hard time buying into the GFS beyond its reliable 5-7 day range.
#Tropics
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