The Meteorological Eclipse
@reid_lt
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25H/15MH interceptions, Hiker, Chess Master, Hot Sauce/Pepper Addict, 🏀 Long Distance Shooter, Science Teacher, Umbraphile, IPA Snob, Golf Newb, 80s Junkie
Long Island, NY
Joined May 2022
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What are you most looking forward too weather wise?
Tracking more Hurricanes
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Fall Foliage
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Wet Nor’easters
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12z HWRF now 933 at hour 84.
All hurricane models are showing rapid intensification now. 👀
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12z HWRF went to a Category 4 for soon to be Beryl. 🤔
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0z GFS: I-95 SPECIAL!!
I love Saturday nights at Club 384.
I’ll be saving this one to my special folder… 😆
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“Hurricane Phoenix” is a hypothetical disaster that would change life in the TB area forever.
The highest surge would reach 42’. 160+ deaths, 30k missing, 300k seeking shelter, $200B in building damage. It’s a simulation and a worst-case scenario. One day, it could be reality.
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Triple 8’s printed out on the 0z KOREAN for 888 mb heading to Louisiana!
Stuff tropical junkies dream about….
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18z HAFS-A has a 120 mph H3 landfalling near New Port Richey late Tuesday night.
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This is likely a new record for the longest 🍋 I’ve ever seen on a GTWO map!
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0Z HURRICANE MODELS
HWRF: 150 mph H4
HMON: 125 mph H3
HAFS-A 165 mph H5
HAFS-B 145 mph H4
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They must have really built back well after Charley in 2004 because the structural damage here I’m seeing in Punta Gorda is not even close to what I observed in Houma after Ida or Lake Charles after Laura.
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The 18z GFS pulled up at the end of the run with 938 mb getting into the GoM.
Would be wild times if the CAG pumps out 2 major hurricanes in 2 weeks!
It certainly would help salvage the busted seasonal forecast!
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18z GFS is doing its thing. A H1 in 6 days in the Lesser Antilles.
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12z GFS long range is a NYC nightmare!
Sewer Subway rats will need life vests.
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HERE WE GO!!
The 12z Euro ensembles have shown an uptick for a signal of an African wave developing next week.
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6z GFS: Complete flooding disaster would occur if this track verified! Gets blocked and bounces around in the SE/Gulf Coast for over a week!
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12z HAFS B is a worst case scenario for Jamaica. 145 mph landfall.
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The lightning in the inner eye wall in the post a few mins ago is a sign of strengthening.
Notice the eye is getting smaller. It’s a clear sign
#Beryl
is wrapping up tighter.
No EWRC is being indicated. Should continue to deepen based on angular momentum dynamics.
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18z GFS just chose extreme violence with a high end H4 into S. TX!
*Not a forecast
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The 0z KOREAN has a stronger storm that’s west of the 12z run yesterday. 🤔
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The 0z ICON has Beryl hitting the Texas coast next week as a H2. 🤔
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In fact, not only does the EURO Special Member No. 5 have a CAT 4 in the Keys, it also has another storm lining up behind it. 😂
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6z HWRF: H4 935 mb 130 mph at Marks, 11am Wednesday. That’s a low pressure. Winds could be 140-150 mph if it wraps up tighter. Sort of like Ian last year.
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Something tells me I was wrong yesterday on my intensity forecast.
This looks to be a H5 to me…
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18z GFS almost backs
#Lee
right into Cape Cod. Western eyewall just misses and Lee gets into the Gulf of Maine and heads to Lubec and Machias before going up the Bay of Fundy. Rapid weakening occurs in Gulf of Maine due to cold water.
Perhaps the 12z GEFS was serious.
👀
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IT’S OFFICIAL
Hunters have dumped recon data to vortex message after they passed the center.
157 knots flight level has been recorded.
Beryl will be upgraded to a 140 knots H5 at 11pm EDT.
Glad to be a part of a historical moment.
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Last year at this time we had a tropical fruit basket.
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12z GFS has that major Gulf ‘cane.
Yea, it’s far out but I seriously believe this part of the basin deserves more attention than the 2 African MDR waves that have free boarding tickets on the struggle bus express.
I am beginning to start my seasonal chase preparation today.
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18z GFS: 959 mb near Steinhatchee Wednesday morning.
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If 97L goes to the left of the western most 18z Euro ensembles in the next 12-16 hours there’s likely going to be MAJOR problems. 😉
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18z GFS is back in business with a major hurricane 953 mb, strong H3 or maybe a H4. heading into Apalachicola/Big Bend Friday morning.
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Looks like a 145-150 mph H4 heading to the FL Panhandle on this run.
Glad it’s Saturday night happy hour at Club GFS.
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12Z EURO LOTTERY ENSEMBLE MEMBER OF THE DAY IS A 934 MB H4 INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS!
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12z HWRF down to 954 mb and headed north from Cuba!
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18z HWRF has a H1 985 mb cyclone enjoying the warm waters south of the Yucatán Channel in 42 hours.
If this verifies you’ll see a H4 at some point in the GoM. You can bookmark this.
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18z EURO isn’t good.
It’s showing a 989 mb hurricane tomorrow by the tip of Cuba and it’s possible it will be deeper than that.
Like the GFS it’s now catching up to the hurricane models. Euro has 965 mb landfall at the Big Bend.
Odds are going up for a major hurricane.
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18z GFS happy hour. Don’t worry I’m having a drink as well. Sometimes, it’s just how it goes. It will be gone by 0z.
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The 12z Euro has a 969 mb H2 in Matagorda Bay, TX.
Globals are beginning to fold to the ICON.
It’s unbelievable that the ICON may just score an absolute coup here. It’s been on to this N solution days before any other globals.
*Not a forecast
@HurricaneAddict
@tbrite89
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The 0z KOREAN has a Category 5 in the GoM on Day 8!
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The latest on Invest 96L which will be named either Chris or Debby depending on what 94L does in the Bay of Campeche.
HWRF! 😂
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In a podcast last month Phil Klotzbach mentioned that when you get a lot of dust into the Caribbean it’s usually a harbinger of a more quiet season due to a strong mid level jet. Yellows aren’t a problem but there’s darker shades of orange now. This is a concern.
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Check out the lightning in the eyewall of
#HurricaneIan
. It’s apparent he didn’t like being demoted to just a minimal H3 this morning after crossing Cuba. He’s getting his swerve on right now!
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I’m back! Off the grid for a bit due to phone issues. In Daphne, AL now.
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12z Euro has a cat.4 at Sarasota, FL.
*Not a forecast.
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Convection is going bonkers now with hot towers firing in the CDO indicated by very cloud cloud tops present on the IR satellite imagery. Lightning flashing as well to pay homage to the upcoming 4th of July.
As close to as a H5 it’s been. NHC may have to call it.
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The 6z GFS is back in business!
Develops the current MDR wave in the WCAR and goes thru the Yucatán Channel into the GoM and heads to Texas as a strong H3.
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The 18z GFS Friday Happy Hour Fantasy is back in business!!! Just how I like it.
It can easily be 30 mb deeper than this as well if it undergoes rapid intensification in the bath waters of the GoM!
👀 🚨 🧨 💣 💥
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The environment Beryl is in does support a H5.
At it’s current size I’m thinking it will have to deepen from 962 mb to about 930 mb to make a H5.
Any thoughts on this?
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12z GFS has me going out tonight and buying some shots for my Wx peeps!
Right now it’s far out so I wouldn’t get focused on the intensity. Let’s see if the track holds up the next few days.
While it’s around 960 mb at landfall it could easily be 30 mb lower!
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18z ICON has a 956 mb strong H3 near Matagorda Bay, TX on Mon morning.
As a chaser this is what you’d want to see as it’s strengthening meaning stronger sustained winds come down to the surface.
As a resident this is the last thing you’d want to see.
*Not a forecast.
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The 12z KOREAN went absolutely ballistic today with 922 mb H5 bomb near Atchafalaya Bay, LA!
🧨 💣 💥
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6z EURO EPS is trending S beginning to make this a Mexico storm. 🤔
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12z GEFS is what you want to see with entry thru the Yucatán channel into the GoM.
This has the potential to be the most impactful hurricane for the CONUS, on the season to date, but it’s far from a definite right now.
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18z HWRF has a 125 mph H3 landfall near Steinhatchee to Cedar Key landfall early Wednesday morning.
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6z EURO ensembles are slightly SOUTH overall as compared to 0z.
We’ll see if the trend holds upon the 12z run which will be released later in the afternoon.
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Beryl is trying to get it’s title back as a MAJOR tonight.
It has a shot.
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SFMR is picking up 150 mph winds at the surface of Beryl. 🤔
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The 6z GFS has double trouble from 300+ hours in the BoC and Caribbean. 🤔
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Imagine a 150 mph cat.4 hurricane on Long Island gusting to 170+ mph. It would be nothing short of a humanitarian crisis on the south shore. Power would be out for nearly 2 months in some communities. The entire electrical grid would have to be reconstructed.
*Not a forecast
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12z HAFS-B has a record for low pressure and wind in the MDR at 898 mb and 185 mph sustained winds.
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It should be noted that the global models have been initializing incorrect since yesterday. They are ~ 40 mb too high upon the run beginning.
Therefore, it’s possible that more than half of the weaker solutions may be wrong and a reason why a turn into the GoM is more likely.
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Here’s the core right now for Beryl. This is the closest view right now for microwave imagery.
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Name some likely H5s in the Atlantic that didn’t become H5 classified due to no recon at the right time.
*Feel free to post an image of imagery at believed peak intensity.
I’ll start with Eta in 2020.
I’ll be following the thread.
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12z ICON has a 965mb H3 similar to where Harvey made landfall in 2017.
*Not a forecast
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12z GEFS has some Gulf action in the long range. 🤔
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BREAKING:
The 12z Euro ensembles have a strong signal for developing a disturbance slated for the Bay of Campeche mid week.
Also it now has a signal for the Gulf of Mexico low that the GFS/GEFS/CMC all show!
More to come….
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0z ICON makes landfall as a 953 mb H4 near Freeport, TX on Monday afternoon.
*Not a forecast.
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12z GFS: Check out the gnarly loop bro does as it goes into the Big Bend, comes back south and then goes to the FL Panhandle as a H1!
I haven’t seen a fake out like this since Jordan dunked on Ewing coming from the sideline in the 1991 NBA Playoffs.
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12z Euro Ensembles are west.
One member has a H3 into NYC!
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Large spread on the 18z GEFS members for location in the GoM.
This could be the last shot for a major hurricane to make landfall on the CONUS this season.
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SHIPS call for rapid intensification if Beryl within 72 hours is increasing.
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Let’s see if Beryl can clear it’s eye out tonight as very cold cloud tops are wrapping around the CDO now. Possible it’s finishing up an EWRC.
I wasn’t planning on staying up late tonight but there goes that idea.
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12z GFS has a H2 in Texas. Far out and we need EURO ensembles to come on board to get serious.
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12z GFS brings me out of retirement.
If you see my last tweet you’ll understand it won’t take much at all to get me to head South at this point.
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Not a bad signal for SE FL. Wait until my SE Wx girls see this. 😂
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Beryl’s CDO has lost some symmetry over the last hour or so due to dry air intruding the cold cloud tops on the NE sector.
Likely peak was 2-3 hours ago.
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18z GEFS shows a huge divergence occurring in 6 days.
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The greatest 🌀 to ever been hyped is likely Irene in 2011.
For days there were many outlets calling for Irene to be a 1:100 year event at the coast rivaling 1938 w/ wind & surge. It was clear it was going to weaken but still they ran the story. At the coast it was a bust.
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A local friend of mine who is an earth science teacher just texted me the 18z HAFS-B, Beryl at H4, and wants me to go with him for a possible chase to St. Vincent or Grenadine Islands. He’s never chased before. 🤔
PS: I hate it when they try to drag me out of retirement!
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If the 0z EURO EPS is correct things could get interesting in 10 days as a ridge could be building over the Atlantic preventing a fishing route. 🤔
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EPS has a full blown Cat.5 off the Carolina coast!
*Not a forecast but I’ll take it every run.
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Beryl is trying to create an eyewall for one last time in her historic Atlantic journey.
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12z Euro Ensembles: Not a SINGLE member is heading toward the U.S. Lots of hype and wishcasting is already occurring, and it’s not just limited to weenies.
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12z GFS ICON CMC are in the GoM. Slow development of the wave allows a western track.
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The 12z Euro bomber ensembles have Beryl tracking very close to Jamaica during the middle of the week and heading to Mexico. Some turn to the W. GoM.
Strong signal for 96L to develop into a named storm, possibly a H1.
After all this the July slumber begins. Bell rings 7/20.
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The Atlantic basin is likely 6 weeks away before it is capable of producing meaningful tropical cyclones at H1 or greater intensity. Many are jumping ship because they been told the SSTs are August like. It doesn’t work like that for cyclogenesis. El Niño atmosphere lingering.
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The 6z GFS has development near PR and then treks thru the Florida Straits up the west coast of FL as a hurricane, possibly a strong H2.
*Not a forecast
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12z EURO ensembles are finally showing the awakening coming!
I’m hoping one of these waves understands Manifest Destiny and Westward Expansion!
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This is the NAVY COAMPS guidance. It gives some credence to the ICON runs.
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The 0z EURO ENSEMBLES:
It seems that yesterday’s 12z run wasn’t a one off.
Next week there is some slow development of an African wave just east of the Windward Islands and by Day 9-10 a tropical storm could form just N of the Greater Antilles.
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