Arun Rao
@rao_hacker_one
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Builder of large-scale ML systems; adjunct prof @ucla ; ex quant derivatives trader & startup founder. Tweets on AI, tech, science, & econ.
Berkeley, CA
Joined June 2012
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台風の影響
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SHOCK
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#ドッカンバトル
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#ドラゴンボール
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#찬열_솔로데뷔_BlackOut
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ムアラニ
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あくあ色
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コンクリ事件
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ブルプロ
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カチーナ
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Mauritania
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キィニチ
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BBドバイ
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#รักเธอทั้งหมดของหัวใจbyซี
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安全第一
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奏章III
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運転免許の筆記試験
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TG Omori
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@neerajarora
This is an unserious post. WA sold to FB with no real business model and was subsidized for years. The team cashed out, but never created an actual business for the app inside FB. And now they have sour grapes and want a contrafactual where they stayed private.
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@levie
Unfortunately long gone. The current Dem party is mostly anti-business and anti-tech. They claim to care but their actions the last 4 years have been clearer (I haven’t seen a US party more hostile to business than the Dems of the last 4 years). It will take some losses for
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@shaunmmaguire
Very disturbing to see - goes beyond peaceful protest to stopping the basic functioning of a university-
@UCLA
needs to stop these campus checkpoints soon before this becomes a national story and its federal funds come at risk.
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@yishan
Teller once said: “von Neumann would carry on a conversation with my 3-year-old son, and the two of them would talk as equals, and I sometimes wondered if he used the same principle when he talked to the rest of us.”
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@ilyasut
Intelligence is dangerous without love, good judgment, character, ethics, and introspection.
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Having carefully read the draft of SB 1047, I expect this bill will end the open source AI/LLM development in California and possibly the US (given how many AI startups exist in CA). It’s profoundly misguided and has onerous, ambiguous, and basically impossible to comply with
The Senate passed our AI safety & innovation bill, SB 1047.
SB 1047 promotes innovation & ensures developers of the largest, most powerful AI models keep safety in mind.
I look forward to continuing to work with all stakeholders to make sure this bill is as good as it can be.
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@ianbremmer
Lol, a misleading post. The Communist parties in India are irrelevant outside 1 or 2 states, w/ no national presence. The only parties that matter in India are the BJP and the alliance of opposition parties called INDIA.
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@deedydas
I’ve worked in teams at Meta with a majority Chinese or Indian engineers. Why is that way? Because these countries put out the most CS and engineering PhDs, esp in highly technical fields like ML or distributed systems. These are some of the smartest and hardest working people
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@lastcontrarian
Learn about engineer/admiral who made nuclear subs possible - one of the greatest product creators ever.
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@RiversRossV
A close friend who’s a Kiwi working at an SF startup went to NZ to get his green card right before Covid. He got locked out of the US and screwed by the Trump admin. Now he probably won’t return; we’re shooting ourselves in the leg. This UWL guy probably did the right thing.
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@dmtrubman
No way to do it without cops. It’s a tradeoff between safety for the public and use of force by cops (these malcontents don’t gently go when asked by passengers or cops - I’ve only seen force work). So pick your poison - safe public spaces with limited use of force, or chaos.
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@dannoyes
Can’t follow legal advice even when there’s huge criminal liability-doesn’t bode well for her and she should resign to work full time on the case before this gets messier. Oakland deserves more.
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@KTmBoyle
Too much helicopter parenting and trying to build resumes. Kids need to be exposed to a diversity of jobs and also difficult service and manufacturing work - parents today are depriving their kids of challenges and even salubrious suffering.
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@DavidSacks
Interesting arguments. His CER is far off - US DIA estimates roughly 1:1.6 (Russians worse off), given the Ukrainian home ground. Also Russia can’t mobilize its entire society and some suggest it’s tapped out, whereas Ukraine can get all able-bodied men. I think the realist
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@laurenshirreff
Not unknown on the west coast of the US - he’s quickly risen to Joe Rogan and Lex Fridman fame. Very influential in the tech and economics communities. Probably better known than most journalists globally, for this audience.
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@jasonfurman
Disagree. Inflation hurts everyone and the poor disproportionately. Ditto with supply chain problems (who do you think gets the limited supply?). These don’t need to be tradeoffs- just bad policy from Trump to Biden.
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@TechEmails
This isn’t harmless; it is a blatant violation of antitrust law and hurts workers. One of the many illegal and unsavory things Jobs did.
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Ilya Sutskever, Chief Scientist of OpenAI, said:
"I think it's pretty likely the entire surface of the earth will be covered with solar panels and data centers..."
I’ve been thinking about this a lot, that the economic and evolutionary logic of AI and data center construction
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@Noahpinion
Keay, India: A History
Thapar, Early India
Chandra, India Since Independence
Shastri, A History of South India
James, Raj (British India)
Judith Brown on Gandhi and Nehru
Austin, The Indian Constitution
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@mmasnick
Disagree. The 1st thread was standard, the 2nd thread shows basic political discrimination that’s pretty distant from policies and Twitter’s rhetoric. Not standard T&S work - I doubt everyone does human-controlled downranking.
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@susannecraig
@russbuettner
@mmcintire
October surprise! Wish this came out 4 years ago. Please keep reporting and thank you.
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@IMAO_
My guess is there is a woke system prompt behind this, that requires diversity in images but wasn’t thought through.
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@amasad
Yeah, Salesforce’s founder also has vehemently attacked FB and other social media competition. They’re not going to want to give up control of Twitter easily, esp after booting Jack - which makes me root for Elon (as much as his offer seems unfunded and low odds).
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@GaryParrishCBS
@stevemur
It’s one of the few areas they both are right - they both rank within the bottom five presidents of the last century. We need to retire both to the golf course.
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Fun explanation from
@stevenstrogatz
on how Newton went from trying to approximate pi to discovering the binomial power series. It’s rare to get a look into the creative process of math discovery like this.
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@awilkinson
I would check your facts - 26 devs can’t even do the infrastructure and devops to keep a site of this size up. LIN also disconfirms what you say.
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@jasonlk
Stock based comp eats up the FCF and creates real economic and accounting losses. They need to cut and then tighten expenses and diversify revenue. What looked cheap in ZIRP isn’t cheap today.
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@GeorgeMayer
Very detailed markup/track changes and versioning, as they prefer sending docs back and forth and not working on a cloud shared doc (for strategic and confidentiality reasons). MSWord does this at the granularity they want - Gdocs does not.
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@AlecStapp
NYT was gaslighting Amazon about this, which had a 30 second online Prime cancellation flow vs the NYT call-in scheme. Good to see the
@FTC
flex in favor of consumers here! Can we make this true of all online subscriptions?
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@ianbremmer
And the 16th century mosque was built on a razed Hindu temple, as was customary for Mughal conquest (destroying local religious sites of Hindus, Jains, & Buddhists). Hence the Indian Supreme Court crafted a plan to let a temple and a mosque exist today in different locations.
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@GeorgeMayer
MSFT Word and Excel are still world class for professionals (lawyers, financial analysts, etc) that need the full feature set that GSuite lacks.
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@seanmcarroll
I have Penrose’s Road to Reality on my desk - probably my favorite physics textbook of all time. All sorts of mathematical oddities and physical wildness. I’d love to see a similar book just for black holes.
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@Carnage4Life
Stripe made a bunch of classic mistakes, bc founder and VC incentives were not aligned with employees.
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@niubi
Pretty terrible TikTok deal. Ben Thompson trashes it from a tech and security perspective in Stratechery today. It’s basically a crony handout to Trump’s donor Ellison. Pure corruption. Bad for the US.
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Simplest explanation of why Congress passed the Chips Act:
“Given the centrality of computer chips to modern war, a nation would leave itself nearly defenseless if it ran out of supply of high-quality chips in wartime.”
Industrial policy is back!!
And it was very natural that the semiconductor industry was Ground Zero for the rebirth of industrial policy.
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@Noahpinion
I’ve seen climate change protesters (eg Extinction Rebellion) do the same and hurt their cause. Activists need to do more work figuring out what strategies are effective vs just righteously letting off steam and getting attention (but hurting their cause).
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@markgurman
These deals make no sense and are a dead end. Apple needs to buy Perplexity or Anthropic and control the key tech. This isn’t like search and ads - Apple’s future rests on controlling GenAI and not renting something out.
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@ATabarrok
The ultimate irony is the seniors pay almost no tax - no income taxes, very little property taxes, & yet they vote to hit younger workers with taxes to support seniors with services. It’s everything I dislike about entitled Baby Boomers.
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@antoniogm
Disagree - it’s surprising how much richer the US actually is. Only Switzerland and the Scandis have kept up. The US has well run states (MA, TX, UT, WA, etc) and corporations (probably a few hundred, it’s more than tech), but also many mediocre and poorly run ones that often
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Minority & unpopular view: personalized ads are crucial for the internet economy, economic inclusion for the poor and middle classes, the success of small businesses, and a healthy democracy.
@eric_seufert
@benthompson
@benevans108
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@lessin
1. Not allowing unlimited high skill immigrantion
2. Engaging in pointless wars (Vietnam, Iraq, Etc)
3. Underinvesting in high quality domestic k-12 education, esp STEM skills
4. Subsidizing dirty and limited energy (oil, gas, coal) instead of clean and renewable (solar,
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@cjc
Unfortunately Benioff continually advocated for the bad policies that tanked SF. The city needs a leadership reset.
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@jeremyphoward
Disagree w/ your take. It was a mutual partnership- the company needed Sam and Greg and this board decision was sophomoric. The company’s existence is more precarious now - still burning lots of cash, and MSFT may just take it over (their only likely option).
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@satnam6502
Brutal story, thanks for sharing. I nudge every immigrant I know to get their green card & then citizenship. It’s still a 2-tier country till you’re a citizen, & I’ve heard other stories like this (had a friend locked out for 2 years and he sued Trump to get back in).
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@Noahpinion
Bad analogy-Venezuela went from rich to poor, Chile from poor to rich. Also Pinochet voluntarily gave up power whereas Chavez and Maduro have hung on with the military.
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Hard truth: Singapore has been governed better than the UK for at least 20 years, arguably 35 or 65 years. Its citizens are wealthier, healthier, happier, and safer, with an optimistic future, unlike the UK. Brits don’t even register this problem - the recent colony has far
Beautiful takedown of The Economist by Singapore's Home Affairs and Law Minister K. Shanmugam.
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@jayrosen_nyu
My observation is that news product quality has fallen much - both losing neutrality both also respect for facts and careful reporting, even from top publishers like the NYT, WaPo, WSJ, etc. What happened?
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@DKThomp
Detroit and Ohio blew it - they didn’t transition to health care like Pittsburgh or high end manufacturing like the Mittelstand - they got complacent and let Japanese, Chinese, and Mexican competitors win.
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@jxmnop
Counter case: talk to any frontier lab researchers about getting 1GW+ dedicated electricity access and all the problems with multimodal dataset scaling.
So unless we get bailed out with magical new algos orders more efficient and effective than current ones (unlikely), his
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@GergelyOrosz
Long run effect: devastating for UK startup scene and VCs - no acquirers and exits. Skilled founders leave for the US.
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@deedydas
No such thing as an only Indian or only Chinese org of 100+ people- that’s a myth. There may be orgs with 60-80% Chinese and Indian engineers, but that’s due to the base rate sampling issue I mentioned for eng PhDs.
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@nathanbenaich
It’s totally nuts and a major red flag for EU startups - if they can’t make minor distribution partnerships with cloud companies, they’re at a huge disadvantage to startups elsewhere. I’m bearish on the EU AI scene due to excessive and pointless regulation.
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@Noahpinion
Chile still outperformed the South American average: 3.2% annual GDP growth vs 0.5% - most agree this was due to the Friedman/Pinochet reforms. Chile has its own structural issues today, but almost anyone in S. America would prefer Chile to their own home country, let alone
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@ATabarrok
Watching the local politics for a time, I see mostly house rich, cash poor seniors who want no development and block even neighbors from building. It reminds me of parts of the Deep South, not progressive cities like Stockholm, Austin, or Madison. The bureaucracy is stifling.
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@GergelyOrosz
Accounting profits are much less important than free cash flow generation and building a business moat. That’s why Uber has a rough time but Atlassian is in a much better place. Tech firms need to learn from the cable/telco OG John Malone:
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@paulg
I hear about a lot like this. A friend has his condo broken into while sitting on the couch with his wife and baby. The robber ignored them and cases the place as they watched horrified. Crime isn’t prosecuted.
Our car and house in Pac Heights were broken into for the 5th time in 4 months last night. My wife and kids were upstairs during the robbery/home invasion. The city is out of control.
@sfgov
@LondonBreed
please take action!!
@SFPD
keep the faith. Recall
@chesaboudin
!
@recallchesa
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@ShannonVallor
Lol - sounds like a symptom of ageing. There are 10x more interesting tech trends now than 20-40 years ago:
ML to AGI
Quantum CPUs
AVs, drones, flying cars
Agtech like AV tractors & vertical farms
Fintech/crypto
Etc
Read less of the tech press & spend more time w/ founders?
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@petergyang
They all need to be ended. It’s disturbing that the MSM and left writers focus on race admissions, but not these other unjustifiable entry avenues. They showcase a corrupt system that the media (both left and right) refuse to challenge.
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@BerkeleyScanner
CC
@meganrcassidy
@hknightsf
- Price is pulling a full Chesa Boudin in Alameda and crime victims are furious. How long till we see a recall?
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@NeelBParekh
Well, of course they do - they have skin in the game. Failure means death. But I’d much rather have the entrepreneurial talent there go into legitimate, scalable businesses, as they and society would benefit from it.
See:
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@stephen_neukam
Lol, this is silly, the issue is constitutional- Congress can already delegate rule making with a clear statutory grant. The issue with Chevron was when Congress doesn’t do that - they can’t delegate unlimited rule making because only Congress has the power for that.
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The EU AI Act has passed, with a dense 290 page bill (compare that to GDPR at 90 pages). The EU political class is celebrating a win for what will at best hobble the EU AI scene or at worst just shut it down, depriving the EU of trillions in value of goods and services. As a
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@ianbremmer
It’s heartening, not hurtful. The sign of a great country is knowing how to accept help and be grateful- not just policing the world and telling others what to do. And yes, we need more manufacturing in the US, esp. for critical PPE.
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@BertuzLuca
Wow, 892 pages - I wonder how many will read through all of it. Onerous requirements for all foundation model providers in Article 28b, whether via API or OSS - if France doesn’t stop this, it will wipe out the foundation models available in the EU.
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@antoniogm
Many Americans haven’t seen it - but older Chinese Americans have. We’re going through a small mania, not unlike the CR (which also started with students at university).
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The supermajority of people who actually build AI in academia and industry think
@Scott_Wiener
’s SB 1047 billion will destroy open source AI in California and cause most startups to flee the state. Yet he keeps claiming his bill is reasonable and light touch and ignores all the
Excellent argument by
@AndrewYNg
against the ignominious California regulation SB1047, which would essentially kill open source AI and significantly slow down or stop AI innovation.
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@levie
Not complicated. News sites partnered with some malleable legislators to extort cash for free value that FB and Google were providing, making internet economics go backwards. The companies stood up for their free speech rights and refused, and now the Canadian govt is whining.
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@pfau
Academia is so broken that I’m glad these researchers have other options that take much better care of them - they publish more, earn more, and aren’t put through the tenure rat race or pointless administrative chores. And they get to actually build scaled systems with real
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@ShaanVP
WhatsApp for messaging is superior to iMessage and Android.
Native Google integration is better on Pixel-better for Gmail and Maps, photo tools, G-suite, etc. Also Google Assistant crushes Siri. I’m on both sides (two phones) but slightly prefer the iOS one.
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@OrinKerr
Weak sauce. Suspensions and expulsions for student participants, firing for employees and staff who participated. This went far beyond a peaceful protest and threatened physical safety. If there are no consequences, that just incentivizes continued flouting of rules and norms.
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@jmrphy
I pretty much ignore all these guys, similar to most of the smart people I know in the Valley.
People we pay attention to: Elon, Jensen, and Zuck; Ben Thompson; Ilya, Yann, Dario, Andrej, and some other scientists; younger founders like Holz, Srinivas, Collisons, Amjad, etc.
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@Jason
Amazon is going back to the office, and I expect Apple will too. Great opportunity for FB and Microsoft to steal talent. The MAFAG battle for talent is fierce. Btw, 14 days per year isn’t modest hybrid. 2-3 days a week is modest hybrid.
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@JohnHCochrane
Given that the Biden admin massively failed on digital trade policy and creating fair and neutral rules, we may end up in a place where companies don’t launch products in the EU or launch old and basic ones. It will be a death knwell for the digital economy in the EU.
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@SusanDReynolds
@SFDAOffice
Thanks 🙏🏼 for this sober reporting on very concerning behavior by a lawless DA’s office. We need to recall Boudin and replace his entire team of former public defenders who are destroying a prosecutors office.
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List of major companies who’ve left SF so far: McKesson, Stripe, Schwab, Juul, Twitter, Coinbase, and possibly Wells Fargo.
Why? Covid was the final straw so people are giving up on an unlivable city,
@LondonBreed
.
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@hknightsf
Really tragic. Besides recalling Chesa Boudin, maybe we should add a recall for Judge Roeca? We need officials who protect our children, not taking the side of “justice” for criminals.
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Hot take: ML researchers are underestimating how quickly recent scaling laws may flatten out - it’s quite likely what people see as an exponential function is a sigmoid, and the harsh reality of the physics of high energy costs and power plant construction restrict the expected
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@svembu
That’s a bit extreme. Welch had some good ideas and bad ones, but yes, moving too far away from customer needs, product, and engineering to financialization wasn’t a great path. Ultimately the conglomerate structure isn’t tenable - companies need to focus on their mission and
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@capitolhunters
This thread is disinformation on at least one point. All the arts and sciences degrees at Penn from didn’t that period didn’t state the major (unlike what the image says). I looked at my old degree from Penn and it was the same. Easy to check by contacting the department.
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@davidmarcus
@andrewrsorkin
The DoJ won’t fall for that BS, and I don’t think a jury would either. The question is whether he gets arrested at a US airport, or they have to extradite him. Also they may put pressure on him via co-conspirators like his parents. Family on the run.
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@stevenheidel
You need better model cards on the versioning, and eval numbers for all the versions. It’s unclear to everyone what the versions do, how they’re different, and what the eval or inference metrics are. Glaring gap in the API docs.
I know many large teams that won’t buy from
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@robkhenderson
Strange case of a good book but poorly written article describing it. I canceled my New Yorker subscription a few years ago after seeing too many cliche-infused and ideological articles like this one.
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@tunguz
Key missing point - DAUs and MAUs - just getting users isn’t as important as keeping them, and that’s conspicuously missing.
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@SirKneeland
Startups are great for experience, but terrible for comp. It’s why talent gravitated to larger companies, where you work on big problems and get taken care of.
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@terronk
Best options are: 1) Get up and leave quietly. 2) Take the guy out in self defense (for those with training). I’m always partial to (1), but depending on how aggressive the guy was and your proximity, you may be forced to (2). Can’t count on SFPD or the DA.
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@Jason
Chernow, Titan
Knight, Shoe Dog
Walton, Made in America
Welch, Jack: Straight from the Gut
Graham, Personal History
Schmidt, Trillion Dollar Coach
Krass, Carnegie
Watts, People’s Tycoon
Stone, Everything Store
Isaacson, Jobs
Stenebo, Truth about IKEA
Mehta, Infinite Vision
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@michelletandler
It’s a numbers game - I think I went on like 600-700 dates over 7 years before meeting my partner, so O(100) dates per year (in clusters). People give up too early - having the same cafe and times of week makes sense. Those first dates are the best filters.
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@iamRezaSayar
No more open Llama, Phi, Gemma, Bloom, etc. This bill would wipe out all open source LLMs coming out in the next year - given the extreme penalties and broad requirements, no one would release them. Small companies can’t afford the compliance costs, large ones can’t take the
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@antoniogm
Lol, you’re overthinking this. He’s making mistakes due to hubris and being overcommitted, plus out of his domains of expertise. Bezos, Zuck, Gates, Jobs, etc were able to adapt to large scale (professional) mgmt easily. I’m watching his learning rate.
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@DrCamiloOrtiz
Can you send any links to research papers or summaries on why gentle parenting fails? Or any posts by therapists? Curious to learn more.
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@bergerbell
My suggestion to friends:
Don’t define yourself by a tribe or label (right/left, blue/red, etc). Think through your views from values, first principles, & data; let the outcome stand where it is. Labels limit deep, unconstrained thinking-they mark a lazy mind & social lemming.
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@ianbremmer
@realDonaldTrump
Yes, Millay is the last line. But Trump can fire him easily and put a toady in place. We need a better process for Presidential acting appointments for senior roles - big gap that Trump exposed.
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@LandonGlover
@levie
Markets are at a high due to massive fiscal deficit spending and expectations of rate cuts. The energy boom is a fraction of what it could be - we could be exporting much more energy and be building many GWs more of plants. Like half a point of GDP squandered. China is the
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@stefan_demetz
@DavidSacks
Do you have a link to them? I provided a Reuters link w/ the data. Open to see something different, but can you point to the actual leaked source docs?
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