Rodrigo Aguilera 🇲🇽 🇺🇦 🇵🇸
@raguileramx
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Mexican by birth, economist by profession, Diogenesian cynic by nature. Former EIU & Chatham House. UDLAP & LSE alum. Misanthropic Leftist. Twitter Sapiotroll.
CDMX (ex London)
Joined January 2012
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@BriCamillucci
Before anyone says "but the insurance paid most of it", a reminder that you're also paying extortionate monthly insurance bills for what in every other civilized country is a public service.
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@Martin59935415
@beatmastermatt
Yes, actually it's more democratic if human beings vote, rather than trees.
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A lot of people see the figures for destroyed Russian equipment and think "but Russia has hundreds/thousands of tanks, vehicles, aircraft etc". It might seem like this is just a tiny fraction of an overwhelming force but let me explain why it is significant /1 🧵
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@pura_aspiracion
@embjpmx
@A_ausdenRuthen
Tómate 15 minutos de pausa en tu vida y reflexiona cómo llegaste al punto de preguntarle al Embajador de Japón en Twitter cómo hacer un trámite consular cuando pudiste mandar un correo o hablar al consulado...
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@oleksiireznikov
A reminder that Western assistance to Ukraine isn't a favor, it's a debt.
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@thehill
"I am for the abolition of slavery. I am also for a state having the ability to make their own laws. So I support the Confederacy in this war"
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State of the British Left: forcing the man single-handedly responsible for taking the modern Anglo-Saxon progressive left into the mainstream - a Jewish man and sitting Senator no less - to answer a question solely to fire up their tankie audience.
This shit is why Corbyn lost.
I asked Bernie Sanders three times whether he thinks Israel's assault on Gaza constitutes a genocide.
Here's what he said.
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@jimmy_dore
1) That's not "from the NIH", that's PubMed, a search engine for biomedical journals hosted by the NIH. You wouldn't say it's "from Google" if you found that same article by googling.
Do better, Jimmy.
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@gabriel_zucman
It's genuinely bewildering how people are so easily conned into thinking crypto is democratic and egalitarian
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The rule of thumb is that when a unit loses around 1/3 of its paper strength, it is effectively destroyed. For a 800-man Russian BTG, that amounts to just 3 tanks and around 20 other armored vehicles /4
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@superinducting
@OthrVirginiaGuy
You have the absolute worst financial advisor if you earn $400K/yr and pay an effective 94% tax rate as you claim.
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I will say this over and over again, there is no such thing as a "Latin American left".
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Anyway, hope this helps understand why comparing pre-war equipment totals is a very amateurish way of understanding how modern war is actually waged, and how "small" losses are actually more significant than they appear. /11
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Now, most of them will have them replaced. They aren't destroyed permanently. But that forced those BTGs to suspend offensive operations for hours or days. Keep doing this over and over and you can see how Ukraine is resisting rather well. /9
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Since this thread is getting traction, I'm going to share the source for some of these statements (Armor Magazine from the U.S. Army Armor School): /12
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For a military unit, say a Russian Battalion Tactical Group (it's main maneuver formation), to fight effectively it needs to maintain some degree of cohesion among its combined arms forces /2
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@GravelInstitute
Well that's funny, because you've had two years to do so and yet haven't mentioned it at all either until now (but surely this isn't whattaboutism, is it?) 🤡
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So why does Russia rely on BTGs? 1) because they find it logistically more difficult to engage full brigades. 2) BTGs are, in fact, tremendously effective in small scale engagements and they have a more varied force mix and far more firepower than a Western battalion /7
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In short, it's much easier to disrupt the operations of three Russian BTGs, than disrupt a Western brigade of three battalions. Additionally, those three Western battalions will be of a single type meaning they don't have a critical component that erodes the others if lost. /6
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So now let's put this into perspective. Assuming Ukrainian estimates are relatively accurate, the right way of thinking is not that those 211 tanks are less than one tank division but rather, that this represents **70** BTGs losing their tank component (3 per BTG, remember?). /8
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The problem with Russian BTGs is that while they have a force mix that is more varied than, say, a Western battalion, and also considerably more fires (artillery), they can't replace these losses by say, cannibalizing other BTGs /5
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This cohesion is lost the moment that the number of men or vehicles that are committed to undertake particular tasks, particularly offensive ones, is reduced below the point in which these tasks can be undertaken effectively /3
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@ElectionLegal
"In other news, A$AP Rocky defended his comments by saying that discrimination against intellectually disabled people is gay"
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@BenRatkaj
@Duderichy
Tell us you've never been to Europe without telling us you've never been to Europe 🤡
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Also note how on defense this is not a problem. A BTG defending can fight well past the 30% losses threshold (to the last vehicle even). Presumably many have done so resisting Ukrainian counterattacks. /10
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Since this thread is getting even more traction, here's also another thread on how I see the war developing over the next week or two /13
War thoughts: Manpower-wise Ukraine and Russia are probably roughly matched right now on the ground, maybe even with an Ukrainian edge. However, Russia has an edge in terms of how many of those men are organized into maneuver units
#RussiaUkraineWar
#UkraineRussiaWar
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@HarryTellsJokes
This is pure 1990s "we need to do business in [insert awful authoritarian regime] because it will lead to democracy"
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@hectic_energy
@kenklippenstein
This is Jen's batshit insane meltdown when someone dared suggest people get vaccinated, just so you all know who you're dealing with:
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@BrandyLJensen
Go to Europe one day and good luck supporting a local barista at 5am if you can find one. Amazing entitlement that you think you deserve someone working at that hour for you and justifying it as "support".
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Oh and I called it on the second day
#NotBragging
#OkImBragging
☺️/14
I'm calling it: if the Russians don't achieve a breakthrough in today's fighting, they've lost it.
#UkraineUnderAttack
#UkraineRussiaConflict
#RussiaUkraineConflict
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War thoughts: Manpower-wise Ukraine and Russia are probably roughly matched right now on the ground, maybe even with an Ukrainian edge. However, Russia has an edge in terms of how many of those men are organized into maneuver units
#RussiaUkraineWar
#UkraineRussiaWar
/1
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@abrahamendieta
Fascismo es confiar más en una fuerza armada que en una institución autónoma. Felicidades, demuestras que a los cultistas de la 4T no les interesa la democracia.
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@SpencerGuard
This is why sending Western equipment is so important. Russia can only replenish itself with increasingly obsolete equipment, whereas Ukraine can be replenished with better stuff than they have now. The qualitative gap by summer could be huge if there is a commitment.
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@MrRichardRider
@the_transit_guy
It may shock you to learn that apartment buildings have been invented.
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@DeniseDresserG
Yo también quiero hablar poéticamente sobre unidad nacional desde mi castillo, sin pagar renta, y el gobierno pagando todos mis gastos.
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@VaushV
"Russia's cyberwarfare capabilities are the most formidable in the world"
Some 17 year old in a basement in Vladivostok:
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My suspicion is no, and Putin will therefore not attempt this. I expect Russia to attempt to gain as much ground for a favorable cease-fire before sanctions hit and the economy cannot support further war any longer. /10
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@jordanbpeterson
And yet all these ants more or less share the fruit of the labor (the food) thus ensuring social cohesion. Thank you Jordan Peterson for such an unexpectedly inspiring defense of socialism and egalitarianism, as well as a universal basic income 🙂
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@IAPonomarenko
I'll take this opportunity to explain once again why Russia's equipment losses are much more significant than they seem:
A lot of people see the figures for destroyed Russian equipment and think "but Russia has hundreds/thousands of tanks, vehicles, aircraft etc". It might seem like this is just a tiny fraction of an overwhelming force but let me explain why it is significant /1 🧵
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@besttrousers
Honest question: what's the pathological compulsion for globe emoji centrists to point out "everything is going great" when someone mentions what are probably very real hardships that you with your Niskanen fellowship are not suffering from?
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For those thinking this doesn't happen in the developed world, a reminder of the UK Horse Meat scandal of 2013. It's also not just about cost but about accountability. The more opaque the supply chain the more illegality you can do.
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AMLO brags that not a single rich person in Mexico has lost money during his administration. Probably you will not read this anywhere in the Western left's romantic view of AMLO as some left-wing anti-neoliberal crusader when in fact, he's pretty much a conservative.
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@DylanBurns1776
@SamSeder
The best part of that debate was when Jimmy kept insisting that the Dems could perpetually filibuster SC appointments and the Sam countered with what if they remove the SC filibuster? Which is exactly what they did. Jimmy got everything wrong.
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@carsonturner
@ACYCapital
@BoredApeYC
@opensea
Totally not the natural outcome when you let charlatans run an entirely unregulated market...
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Neo-con turned radical centrist David Frum continues peddling the 90s era myth that development failure is always the product of not liberalizing enough when in fact, Mexico liberalized far more than China did.
When Mexico joined NAFTA in 1994, it was way more developed than China. If Mexico had fully opened its economy to grow at only 1/4 China's rate, Mexico's GDP/capita would today rival that of France. Mexico needs more modernity. Lopez Obrador is returning to the authoritarian past
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@sapinker
What about a manifesto against radical centrism that insists on preserving an untenable status quo incapable of solving the world's problems? Now that's something I'd sign up for.
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@Nick_L_Miller
Great stuff, but there was no space to add Pearl Harbor and the Alamo to the comparison?
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Here is where Ukraine's territorial forces play their part. To defend cities you don't need maneuver units. Suddenly Ukraine's manpower parity becomes a REAL problem for Russia. Any brute force attempt to take the big cities enters into a maelstrom of well armed defenders. /8
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@RicardoBSalinas
@paulkrugman
Mexico's most obnoxious inherited billionaire attempting to give a Nobel Prize winner a lesson in economics is all I needed to brighten up my morning. 🙂
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@ezraklein
I love how these pieces get published the very moment there's no further need to endorse someone who campaigned precisely on building something better...
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@A_K_Verm
@fawnrelic
Tell us that you can't beat Margit without telling us that you can't beat Margit 👆
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@doulbedoink
Britain is closer to Africa than Mexico is to South America.
(always had to bring this up with Brits who thought everything below the Rio Grande was "Souf America, innit")
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@RodneyField7
@KyleKulinski
Would be interesting why amid the overwhelming evidence that vaccines significantly reduced severe disease and that they are safe, people like you are still trying to cope their way out of accepting reality.
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It's amazing how Russell Brand
@rustyrockets
flew under the radar to become the world's number one conspiracy theorist. The titles of these videos alone are pure cultist brainwashing. Then again, there were signs of this coming from a decade ago...
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Russian casualties have already been enormous but what we would see in a brute force city attack would be unlike anything so far. Comparable to the human wave attacks seen in the Iran-Iraq and Korean wars. Will a demoralized army have the stomach for this? /9
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@lukeross256
@DylanBurns1776
There are millions of good Ruskies, sadly none of them are in government.
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Feel part of the reluctance to send modern NATO tanks to Ukraine is partly due to the fear that they will be destroyed in an environment that is far more lethal than any war NATO has ever faced. These are Turkish Leopard 2s... in Syria.
#Bakhmut
#UkraineWar
/1 🧵
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@2RawTooReal
"Let's piss on fast food workers to score an own against someone on Twitter".
- KHive in all its glory.
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@ZullieTheWitch
I love the transporter chests where you just appear in god knows where part of the world and there's a giant stone dragon the size of a football stadium and all you're thinking is "is it alive?", "will I have to fight it at some point"?
It's brilliant.
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@ggreenwald
The NPR story is factually wrong. The CDC gave the chickenpox an R0 of 8.5, not 10 as the article claims, while Delta was given a range between 6-9.5, hence the comparison. But nice attempt at a cheap gotcha at the CDC for your increasingly vaccine-skeptical audience, Glenn.
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However, the big, and I mean BIG problem for Russia is that their ability to take a big city (Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odessa) is really in question. They haven't been able to subjugate Mariupol which is completely surrounded and less well defended. /7
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@ianbremmer
Also, if you knew anything about Mexico (which you clearly don't), you'd know Mexico is a federal system which means states have a lot of leeway in setting their own health policies. Like the US. Many states have taken the lead knowing our prez is bungling it. Like the US.
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@davidfrum
Mexican economist here. Mexico liberalized far more than China did. Please evolve your thinking from 90s era Washington Consensus explanations for underdevelopment.
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@DiegoGomezDeck
@el_pais
Quítate esa banderita de Ucrania si tu respeto por civiles muertos es tan tajantemente inexistente.
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@shannonkoneil
@bopinion
Unbelievable that you have a senior position on Latin American policy and are thoroughly unaware that the single thing that unites Latin Americans is a rejection of US interventionism.
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@briebriejoy
@aaronjmate
Nice job, having a Putin propagandist on. Fits right in with the rest of your portfolio of deplorables. 👍
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@MarkHertling
Amazing that you're still dying on this hill.
Look at all these Egyptian M1s which are just gathering sand because it's too complicated a tank for anyone to operate including Ukraine.
(massive sarcasm alert)
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@MaxSkowron
You realize capitalism is the system that *sends those pears to the other side of the world* just for packing? Has absolutely zero to do with Argentinian taxes.
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Gotta give it to Aimee Terese for managing racism, homophobia, misogyny and misandry in the same tweet.
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@OsitaNwanevu
While it was a delight to see a few hedge funds get royally f-ed, anyone actually thinking this was the start of some revolution really needs a reality check.
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@ianbremmer
Also hurts to get humanitarian aid from the US after it invades you or sticks a structural adjustment program after elites that it sponsored or installed ran the economy to the ground...
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@CetiAlphaFumf
@mjluxmoore
Much like the Americans who only began protesting the Vietnam War once the draft started.
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En vista de la explosión de rabia de nuestra comentocracia derechista (perdón, "liberal") sobre el supuesto fracaso de la
#vacunacion
en México, abro hilo para que entiendan el problema y porqué el problema no es el gobierno sino las farmacéuticas:
#VacunaCOVID19
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@SpaghettiKozak
"Ukraine wasn't even a real country before 1991 you know"
"Did I mention I've read Chomsky?"
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@kvolker
@WhiteHouse
@NATO
@cepa
@USAmbNATO
Pilot's just going to jump into an A-10 and know how to fly it? Honestly, how are you a senior international advisor to anything? 🤔
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@leozuckermann
20 años a comentocracia mexicana negando que son neoliberales o incluso que el neoliberalismo existía... llega un gobierno de izquierda y salen todos escurriendo del closet declarandose neoliberales de hueso colorado 😆
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Of course, those gaps are deliberate. Ukraine has chosen not to contest them and likely feels confident that they do not represent strategic threats or can even be counterattacked later. The deep thrust towards east Kyiv or around Mykolaiv are examples. /3
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@RALee85
I'd say the defense of Kharkiv and it's environs is as important if not more. Made it impossible for Russia to cut off and encircle east Ukraine which would have been militarily devastating.
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What does this mean? Ukraine needs to pick and choose where its maneuver units stand and fight, which can't be across the whole front. Hence why Russia can make deep incursions where there are gaps in Ukrainian defenses. /2
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This is basically the result of the fundamental inertia of war: a much more powerful attacker forcing a defender back bit by bit even despite the latter's tactical proficiency and superiority. "Victory goes to the bigger battalions" is still true in 2022. /5
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@SOYCarlosMota
Nadie está acusando a Adele de transfobia. Patético que tienes que inventar hombres de paja para fomentar tu propia transfobia.
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So what are the implications? Even in the most optimistic scenario Ukraine is unlikely to take back much of the territory it's lost and that over the next week or two there will be more ground lost, though less than in the first week. /6
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Btw, the reason that Germany is adamant about the US sending M1s so that they can release Leopard 2s seems to confirm my theory: we don't want destroyed Leopards unless there's destroyed Abrams too (Challenger is irrelevant since the production line is closed). /12
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However, the numerical superiority of Russian maneuver units still poses a problem in term of resisting Russian advances as a whole: the rears of those deep thrusts get consolidated, logistics bases move forward, occupation troops (FSB, Rosgvardiya) move in etc. /4
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I am honored to announce that my book, The Glass Half-Empty: Debunking the Myth of Progress in the Twenty-First Century, has been released today by
@RepeaterBooks
and is available at all major US and UK booksellers (plus all Amazon global sites). Wanna know what it's about? 👇
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Alguien explíquenle a este parásito que este es el resultado de pocos impuestos, no de demasiados.
🤦🏻♂️😳 ¿Y para esto nos cobran impuestos?
Que alguien me explique por favor porque no entiendo como puede suceder algo así, ¿a quien van a castigar por tremenda negligencia, quien va a renunciar… nadie?
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