Quinn Thompson
@qthomp
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CIO @Lekker_Cap | Weekly Macro Podcast @ForwardGuidance
Joined December 2018
If this picture doesn't tell you all you need to know about the "Crypto for Harris" team led by Mark Cuban then you are a lost cause.
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No one in crypto nor traditional macro is fully appreciating the shift that is occurring. I am getting more bullish by the day. For the first time in a long time, I've started to think we may see 2020-2021 esque conditions again. I will elaborate in my next letter.
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Title: We are amidst one of the most obvious and attractive crypto buying opportunities of recent memory. Subtitle: While the market has completely reset, the structurally positive election, liquidity and crypto momentum cycles remain intact. Body: In all of my 5 years in.
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So if $MSTR gets included in the Nasdaq today post-close, does that mean Bitcoin perps/futures traders will front run Bitcoin spot buyers who will front run MSTR's purchases from Monday's MSTR buyers who are front running the passive flows from Nasdaq index vehicles?
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The implications of the SEC's 180 degree pivot are impossible for the market to price over night. This may be the best day of news for crypto ever and its so good to see the industry's beloved torchbearer, @coinbase, stand to benefit the most. 1) Biggest risk to $COIN's business.
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The @USTreasury just posted a 25+ slide presentation on digital assets, stablecoins and tokenization. It's stuffed at the back of an unrelated QRA presentation so it's likely to go unnoticed by most.
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I think there is serious cascade risk in crypto, and in particular, expect most alt coins to be taken out back. The market seems to have lost any ability to bounce, even in majors, while at the same time leverage and open interest remains high. No panic yet. I expect that.
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I can't imagine what @brian_armstrong is feeling. Building one of the most admirable businesses in all of emerging technology while gracefully spearheading industry advocacy against a nasty and hostile government. I hope he's celebrating a bit but I bet he's as focused as ever.
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I am logging off of here for the weekend so I will leave y'all with one parting thought. The ETF was the largest catalyst EVER in Bitcoin's 15+ year history. The ETFs are single handedly responsible for the asset's largest market cap growth EVER. I repeat, EVER, over a 15+ year.
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If you are still bullish ETH over SOL, you are either:.1) Too blinded by how wealthy you got from being early to ETH to see reality.2) Not an active participant in the crypto ecosystem.3) Intellectually dishonest with yourself
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I’m thrilled to announce the launch of @Lekker_Cap, a liquid hedge fund bringing a top-down macro approach to digital asset investing. Lekker’s actively managed strategy capitalizes on the growth within the crypto ecosystem through liquid tokens, while also seeking unique and
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If I had to pick the most egregiously overvalued smoke and mirrors token in all of crypto that I suspect will result in the biggest losses to current holders, I would choose $ONDO. If this tweet spares even just one uneducated holder from the impending -99% loss, I will consider
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What happens to $COIN when all of their cases get dropped after Trump wins by a landslide and cleans house at the SEC? Asking for a friend.
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$MSTR earnings follow up: SAYLOR DOES IT AGAIN. Here's what you need to know and why I actually love this move. By ripping the bandaid off and announcing a massive ATM shelf like this, they are turning $MSTR into a de facto ETF. Now instead of waiting for big premium spikes.
"SNIPPING BITCOIN'S LEFT TAIL". a short alpha-packed tale by Quinn Thompson of @lekker_cap. Microstrategy holds a special place in my heart. Last year I became the resident $MSTR guy on Twitter which led many of you to press the 'follow' button and start listening to my market
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Despite receiving a tremendous amount of heat for this take, it turned out to be extremely accurate. Over $100B has come off crypto total market cap since. Now when I look around, instead of seeing overzealous bottom callers I see a lot of pain and bearishness. Many have been.
I think there is serious cascade risk in crypto, and in particular, expect most alt coins to be taken out back. The market seems to have lost any ability to bounce, even in majors, while at the same time leverage and open interest remains high. No panic yet. I expect that.
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The market is fading the positive impact of the upcoming ETH ETF way too hard.
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I am looking for the strongest crypto bull case for the next 3-6 months. Who's got it? Let's hear it 👇.
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The market is overly focused on the unlikelihood of a May ETH ETF and missing forest for the trees. The supply of ETH is deflating by >1.3% annually, which is >$5B based on today's market cap, with the potential for this deflation to increase as activity continues to grow.
Let me explain why this all matters for ETH 🧵👇.1/.
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So here's a little hunch with some free alpha. Let's see how it plays out. $MSTR/BTC and $COIN/BTC are typically very correlated. Over the last ~2 weeks, the latter has moved higher while the former has stagnated. This tells me $MSTR is actively selling shares to buy BTC. 1/.
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My all-time favorite reply I’ve ever gotten on this app. By far 😂🤣
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This penguin spent the first 6 years of his young career working in debt capital markets so I figured why not explain how I'm thinking about $MSTR if I was Saylor right now. I have no idea what is going to happen and these are just my best guesses so take it with a grain of salt.
"SNIPPING BITCOIN'S LEFT TAIL". a short alpha-packed tale by Quinn Thompson of @lekker_cap. Microstrategy holds a special place in my heart. Last year I became the resident $MSTR guy on Twitter which led many of you to press the 'follow' button and start listening to my market
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Larry Fink is laughing in disbelief that the market is going to let him run back the exact playbook on the ETH ETFs as BTC. The % of ETHE outflows right now corresponds to the % of GBTC outflows between Jan 23-24. It truly is going to be that simple isn't.
Everyone is spittin' mad that ETH ETFs didn't get $5B of inflows on day 1 and price didn't go vertical in a +20% green candle. I suggest looking up the meaning of 'double standards' and how the BTC ETFs played out. Patience.
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I would think about taking profits on risk assets you hold if you haven't already. There is a non-zero chance of a Yen carry unwind deja vu in the coming week. New @ForwardGuidance drops tomorrow with a lot of alpha.
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The inability for crypto investors to not see the unmistakable lack of interest in ETH ETF flows tells me there remains a deeply embedded bias favoring ETH that still needs to be rinsed further. The difference in the first weeks of BTC flows vs. ETH is glaring. Sure, Grayscale
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With success like this, Warren is about to see a coup in her 'anti-crypto army'. Nothing makes politicians pivot quicker than seeing dollar signs.
48 out of 48 candidates backed by crypto's biggest PAC were declared winners as of Friday morning. 💯
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6 days until the world's largest publicly telegraphed Bitcoin purchase in history.12 days until the first Bitcoin friendly president of the US.14 days until another 25 bps Fed rate cut. But yes, please lecture me more about how foolish it is to be long going into the election.
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I still don't think the whole cutting rates while raising inflation expectations thing got enough attention. The ECB is saying the quiet part out loud.
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BOTTOM SIGNAL. BID. I DONT WANT TO HEAR THE WORD GOX EVER AGAIN.
We are pleased to say that the credited assets that we have distributed to Mt. Gox creditors on Bitstamp are now fully accessible after completing security checks. Thank you for your patience.
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Who fking called it???."Today, we are announcing a strategic goal of raising $42 billion of capital over the next 3 years, comprised of $21 billion of equity and $21 billion of fixed income securities, which we refer to as our “21/21 Plan.”.
6 days until the world's largest publicly telegraphed Bitcoin purchase in history.12 days until the first Bitcoin friendly president of the US.14 days until another 25 bps Fed rate cut. But yes, please lecture me more about how foolish it is to be long going into the election.
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“Man Politely Asks Bear to Leave Party”. With Bitcoin now down over 20% from ATHs and most digital assets down much worse, I believe we are at or very close to a tradable local bottom. Over the last 1.5 months, crypto has faced headwinds on numerous fronts that include regulatory
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CPI in line. See you at $100k #Bitcoin next week.
Tomorrow's CPI print is a nothing burger in my view. Oil is glued to the bottom of the range while wage growth leading indicators and China export prices continue to point to softness. What matters is the Fed cutting in December and tomorrow's print isn't going to change that.
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If Trump's momentum remains at this pace, the smart money isn't going to wait around for election night to start placing Trump victory bets. Everyone has a hunch he's going to win but the past few months have dampened confidence in that outcome. While people saying "Kamala is.
Don't be surprised if over the coming weeks markets start to price in a Trump victory and red sweep. Geopolitical tensions and widespread global instability, worst inflation problem in decades, national security and economic crisis at southern border, failing emergency response.
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My 2 cents. This is a trader's market. In both traditional and digital assets, price moves that usually take weeks are happening in days. This is a sign of market indecision. It also makes market commentary difficult. Two days ago BTC was 10% higher with a $200B higher market cap.
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The @pudgypenguins chart still amazes me. The only ETH beta that has consistently outperformed ETH in nearly a straight line since the 2021 bull market peak. And to think these won't catch a bid. people ran NodeMonkes up to $60k per NFT after the BTC ETF. Fade at your own risk.
I'm sorry but I just can't get over the @pudgypenguins chart. Straight line up for >2 years in bear market. Imajin what will happen when total crypto market cap and stablecoin supply 10x instead of -50%. Folks this is a >$200M market cap asset, not a little shitcoin
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There will be case studies written about how in 2024 the mainstream media psyoped a whole world of billions of people to think 1) Kamala Harris was a decent candidate and 2) Kamala Harris and Tim Walz stood a chance at being elected. Incredible really.
It's amazing that the mass coordinated psyops attempt has also deluded so many financial market participants. The data is glaringly obvious yet the 'cool'/'in' take remains "it's impossible to have a view. it's a coin toss. it's irresponsible if you do".
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What if, tomorrow when you wake up the Harris honeymoon and DNC are in the rear view, Powell gives dovish remarks in the morning and in the afternoon RFK backs Trump and brings along his 2-5% of voters. How’s that for a narrative change?.
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I will be sharing some thoughts and reflections later today but let me give a go forward piece of advice. This move should not be faded. This market will run for many weeks and months from here. If you’re out of position, find an entry and get in position. It’s that easy.
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17 days away. Stocks and gold at all-time highs. Years long supply overhangs in the rear view. 7 months of consolidation. This is not a time to get cute trading around. This is a time to smash the buy button on any dips.
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There is ~$60B in BTC ETFs today. ~$11B in $ETHE. Assuming same % of coins leave $ETHE as have left $GBTC (-47%), that's ~$5B of outflows over the first 4 months. If you were to assume ~9% of total $ in Bitcoin ETFs moves to the ETH ETFs over those 4 months, there would be ZERO.
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I am starting to ponder the possibility that we just came out of the worst of the economic slowdown that we will see for 12+ months. While still developing the idea, I believe there is a non-zero chance that the best recent macro analog for today is the start of Q4 2020.
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A LEKKER REAL-TIME UPDATE.“Man Politely Asks Bear to Leave Party, Part 2”. I haven’t done one of these since May 1st (quoted tweet) due to the fund launch, but I am now able to discuss Lekker publicly so let’s go. First, a quick plug. If you’re an accredited investor who has
“Man Politely Asks Bear to Leave Party”. With Bitcoin now down over 20% from ATHs and most digital assets down much worse, I believe we are at or very close to a tradable local bottom. Over the last 1.5 months, crypto has faced headwinds on numerous fronts that include regulatory
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“SaYlOr Is An IdIoT! hE bUyS tHe ToP iN bItCoIn EvErYtImE!” No anon, let me tell you why Saylor is playing chess while you’re playing checkers. There’s a reason $MSTR buys near the top of every Bitcoin rally, it’s because that’s when they are flush with cash. There’s a reason
The most talked about second order effect of the #Bitcoin ETF is the closure of the $GBTC discount which currently stands at ~29% and represents a ~40% return if it trades back to par. What is not being discussed is the impending closure of the $MSTR premium which currently
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Would people want a Twitter spaces today dissecting my Trump victory thesis and some go forward market views? Any other investors / market participants want to join?.
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A de facto Bitcoin ETF was just added to the Nasdaq index. Fade at your own risk.
$MSTR earnings follow up: SAYLOR DOES IT AGAIN. Here's what you need to know and why I actually love this move. By ripping the bandaid off and announcing a massive ATM shelf like this, they are turning $MSTR into a de facto ETF. Now instead of waiting for big premium spikes.
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I'm going to remember Friday, August 23rd 2024 for a long time. Historic day in Bitcoin's history. Powell made a decisive pivot in interest rate policy, signaling the Fed will act swiftly to support the labor market and economy, despite inflation bottoming at 3%. Concurrently,.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr Torches the DNC. "The DNC and its media organs engineered a surge of popularity for Vice President Harris based upon nothing. No policies, no interviews, no debates, only smoke and mirrors and balloons in a highly produced Chicago circus.". @RobertKennedyJr
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Yellen told us this AM she's got an election to win. Let's see if J Pow says the same this afternoon.
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Let me get this straight. You, a cryptocurrency enthusiast, are becoming apathetic/disillusioned towards Bitcoin ahead of the Fed's first interest rate cuts in over 4 years that are being enacted in order to bolster the economy despite core inflation being >3%. I don't follow.
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Guys think about this. In 17 days we're about to have:.1. A government agency literally named DOGE after a crypto memecoin.2. Presidential transition team led by the shepherd of Tether into the US.3. Vice president who owns Bitcoin. I am so fking bullish my god.
Department .Of.Government .Efficiency.
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US BIDEN: IRAN NOT EXPECTED TO ATTACK ISRAEL IF GAZA CEASEFIRE IS AGREED. I just saw this headline come across the tape so let me elaborate on my view from the other day further. The US election is just as international of an ordeal as it is domestic. It's high stakes for
Expanding on this further. I think a similar logic can be applied to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. There seems to be a hesitancy to rebuy ahead of the potential for war. The problem with this view is its consensus and all over the headlines. So at best for your.
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Summary of early voting data:.1. R's significantly outperforming 2020.2. D's underperforming 2020.3. Male/female split effectively same.4. Black turnout lower. This data is quite uniform across almost all jurisdictions. Landslide.
In PA in 2020, D's were ~65% of early voting. Thus far today that's ~56%. Would be a real shame if the media reported data honestly wouldn't it.
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I will explain in a podcast this week but you are not long enough inflation protection. Gold, oil and crypto. This may sound ridiculous to you now, but in a few months time we will look back and recognize the seeds are being sown for the second wave of inflation.
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Seems people have forgotten that $COIN's top US competitors are all nearly obsolete. FTX gone, Gemini a shell of its old self, Kraken lagging way behind. Meanwhile, the total addressable domestic market has grown significantly AND they're expanding internationally.
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November to December is one of the strongest periods of the year for long duration bonds (yields lower) and the market is pricing out Dec/Jan Fed cuts while risk is okay with it (better growth). This combo may soften the dollar and could be very supportive for risk.
What if the reason the equity market has been unbothered by higher yields this time round is we are pricing in higher real gdp, not just higher inflation? . Bessent approach is about making 3% real GDP the new normal. Markets seem to be okay with higher yields when that is the.
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"This time is different"
If you need a clear sign that This Time is Different™ it really doesn’t get clearer than this.
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The leverage unwind over the past week in both traditional and crypto markets was nothing short of extraordinary. ~1/3 of total crypto open interest got flushed while equity bulls got sent packing as evidenced by sentiment moving from extremely optimistic to pessimistic (70->30).
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People are underestimating how bullish this $MSTR announcement is for Bitcoin.
$MSTR earnings follow up: SAYLOR DOES IT AGAIN. Here's what you need to know and why I actually love this move. By ripping the bandaid off and announcing a massive ATM shelf like this, they are turning $MSTR into a de facto ETF. Now instead of waiting for big premium spikes.
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The Fed minutes do not align with what Powell tells us during FOMC pressers. Why does he refuse to comment on their assumptions of Trump's policies but then incorporate them into their forward outlook for inflation?
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Mike is 100% accurate here. I loved this recent chart from @coinbase @0xdavidhan. What it's showing is a constant drift upwards in non-basis trade ETF flows. This is fantastic long-term and is what's putting a floor on BTC's price. Bullish.
We've had $15.5B of net inflows into BTC ETFs, but a $7.5B increase in futures open interest over the same time period. The basis trade (buying spot via ETFs and selling futures forward to earn what was an insanely high drop) - not some Coinbase conspiracy - is why the ETF.
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This is a long post but I think a worthwhile read. Over the past few days as I was pondering the ongoing US political events, something clicked for me. Whether you’re a republican and you already believe this, or a democrat and will start to believe this, the media has emerged as.
As much as last night was an indictment of the Democratic Party for misleading party members and the country about the mental acuity and health of the president, the media deserve far more derision and scorn. I and others were repeatedly criticized by the media for questioning.
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So is anyone going to talk about all of the exuberance to short ETH that has turned out to precede a +3% ETHBTC day and +13% for the best positioned ETH alt?.
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A small update I'm excited about - @lekker_cap is now a 506(c) offering which allows for general solicitation and open discussion of the fund. Going forward I will be publicly sharing recurring updates like monthly investor letters and fund performance. Intellectual honesty is a.
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How to sell ETH to traditional investors? Easy. "Remember when you first believed in blockchain, but not Bitcoin? Now you can express that view. The ETH ETF serves as the first ever traditional proxy for all things blockchain given it's market leading position as the leading.
Some food for thought that I wish I could take credit for but kudos to @NeilAOsborne for the great points. Prior to the ETF launches, traditional investors could access Bitcoin exposure through proxies like $MSTR and miners. Despite those assets no longer needed as BTC proxies,.
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"SNIPPING BITCOIN'S LEFT TAIL". a short alpha-packed tale by Quinn Thompson of @lekker_cap. Microstrategy holds a special place in my heart. Last year I became the resident $MSTR guy on Twitter which led many of you to press the 'follow' button and start listening to my market
“SaYlOr Is An IdIoT! hE bUyS tHe ToP iN bItCoIn EvErYtImE!” No anon, let me tell you why Saylor is playing chess while you’re playing checkers. There’s a reason $MSTR buys near the top of every Bitcoin rally, it’s because that’s when they are flush with cash. There’s a reason
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ETH/BTC…prepare for lift off. ETH’s capitulation occurred on the eve of the Bitcoin ETF approval and was followed by one of its numerous false starts over the past few months. A couple weeks later, now that it’s off the front page news and has lost the attention of many, ETH is
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Sick of the vibes on crypto twitter? What if I told you there's an actionable way to fade it?. There is. Long ETH. Just like none of them owned enough BTC, now none of them own enough ETH. Why play the PvP inFIGHTING games? Play the positive sum, TradFi inFLOWS games.
I would not call you crazy if you told me Iggy Azalea beefing with Vitalik was a 'peak negative sentiment' moment for ETH.
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Alright gang. You know I've been bulled up for awhile. We're no longer early to this trade but I'm once again seeing the bears out too soon. Here's your must read bull 🐂 case bible. Let me take you down a journey… 🧵👇.1/.
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Sad is the word that comes to mind seeing what the media is doing to JD Vance. Ideal standup citizen - persevered tough childhood, marine, law grad, author, entrepreneur, senator. Disagree with his views all day long but belittling and painting as evil is disgusting behavior.
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Don't be surprised if over the coming weeks markets start to price in a Trump victory and red sweep. Geopolitical tensions and widespread global instability, worst inflation problem in decades, national security and economic crisis at southern border, failing emergency response.
Just received this note from a SpaceX engineer helping on the ground in North Carolina. @FEMA is not merely failing to adequately help people in trouble, but is actively blocking citizens who try to help!. “Hey Elon, update here on site of Asheville, NC. We have powered up two.
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Today was possibly the highest daily trading volume of all-time in crypto and the largest liquidation event since previous cycle peak. Funding has completely reset on the move and $COIN outperformed just about everything. It doesn't get much simpler than this folks.
These estimates are being thrown to the wayside daily as trading volumes soar. Let me put into perspective - at the end of Q3, 7DMA total daily volumes was $10B. We added $10B to the 7DMA in the last two days alone. This is the time you want to own the casino.
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New all-time low made today in Bitcoin mining profitability. But you won't hear about it. You'll only see the bull tweets cherry picking the one off high fee blocks around the halving. Remember to keep an open mind even if a piece of data or information against your bias :)
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Alright last one. Got my forever peng @pudgypenguins . Thank u $COIN
I may need an intervention soon to stop me from buying more @LilPudgys.
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Which is your favorite? @pudgypenguins
I have a problem. I can't stop buying @pudgypenguins.
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I believe the current sentiment around ETH is the result of two unrelated factors playing out simultaneously that compounded the negative narrative. The question I'd ask many is, are you bearish ETH because of an ETH specific reason or are you bearish the market broadly and just.
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If there was one person on the face of this Earth that I could choose to represent our industry, it's hands down @nic__carter. Absolute GOAT 🐐! Very proud friend ❤️.
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I don't think people are ready for what the next month will hold now that there are ETFs for BOTH of the largest crypto assets. Billions of dollars will be flooding into the space. The conditions for an August blow off top are in place.
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The Canadians taking a page out of Saylor's playbook. "MicroStrategy for Solana" 🤔
This stock has been consolidating at its highs for weeks now and has barely even sniffed its 100 DMA since Q4 2023. It's one of my favorite Solana plays and it isn't even a token. It is also an anti-Gensler beneficiary given the US exchange uplisting potential. $DEFI.
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Do yourself a favor and go buy anything Ethereum related with both hands. You can even be blindfolded while doing it. $LDO, $OP, $IMX, $BLUR, $MATIC, $SNX, Pudgies, $ETHE, or just $ETH itself. Does not matter. Strap in.
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I am hiring an Investment Analyst/Associate to join me at @lekker_cap. Requirements:.-- Truth seeking, honest, transparent and accountable.-- Holds oneself to the highest standard in all facets of life (professionally, ethically and morally).-- Deep passion for financial.
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1/ @maplefinance was launched 8 months ago, has grown to over $500 million in TVL and is tackling a $125 trillion total addressable market. Full stack below 🥞👇.
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If that was the ETHBTC bottom, it's going to be a fun time to own the only Ethereum based asset/alt that has consistently outperformed ETH year over year @pudgypenguins.
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The market is telling you everything you need to know but you don't want to listen and for some reason need to see tomorrow's NFP that everyone knows is not going to be good. Every single piece of economic data this week has been weak and yet the market is not dropping anymore on
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Fed proceeding with rate cuts despite inflation bottoming at 3% paves the way for the second leg of the Trump trade to pick back up again. The winners and losers of the next few weeks will closely resemble those from Nov 6 - Nov 20. Position accordingly.
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The amount of people who have told me today’s Trump speech will be sell the news makes me expect it not to be. Two reasons: 1) qualitatively it is consensus and 2) quantitatively positioning has been de-risked or kept people waiting on the sidelines. It wouldn’t surprise me if we.
Look, I want to sell the news on Trump's speech at BTC conference tomorrow as much as the next guy. But the macro setup is just too good here for me to want to get cute trading around it. I have a hunch things might trade more like Cointelegraph intern article - up only.
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All 👀 on next week's FOMC. With the Bank of Canada cutting rates and the ECB expected to tomorrow, it would not surprise me in the slightest if global central banks are coordinating easing despite a tighter Fed. Their hopes for looser US monetary policy have continuously been.
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