matthew sigel, recovering CFA
@matthew_sigel
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Head of digital assets research @VanEck_us . Not your fiduciary on X. Disclosure:
NYC
Joined July 2017
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VanEck's
@MarketVector
launches $MEMECOIN index, top 6 assets, 30% cap.
Warns potential customers: "These coins are intended for entertainment purposes"
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Blackrock CIO of ETF & Index Investments
@Samaraepcohen
said today at the Coinbase event that permissioned blockchains have lost, & that traditional market participants are coalescing around open-source
#Ethereum
for tokenization, so as not to fragment liquidity 👍
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The US President should be able to ban
#TikTok
in the name of national security, without a 55 page new law that broadens the power of the executive branch & purports to cover all kinds of "transactions" including cryptography & payments. NO legislation needed.
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We at
@vaneck_us
are pleased to announce that
@CBOE
just filed our 19b-4 to list and trade shares of the FIRST Solana exchange-traded fund in the US!
We look forward to engaging with the SEC during the review period.
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$COIN COO says PANIC at the White House: "The tone from the SEC has just changed literally overnight...The administration sensing some panic"
at JPM TMT conference:
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$1 Million market cap penny stock Nilam Resources (NILM) announces letter of intent to buy 24,800 Bitcoin ($1.7B) "at a discounted rate relative to current market prices" via an acquisition of a special purpose entity under the name MindWave.
1) What
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Brian Armstrong Has Been Practicing his
@base
Pitch and It's Getting Really Good 🔥
Today at the GS Tech & Comms Conference -->
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We are so thrilled to confirm that the SEC has approved, pursuant to Section 19(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, our exchange partner CBOE’s proposed rule change to list and trade a
@vaneck_us
spot
#Ethereum
ETF on the CBOE! 🥳🚀
TLDR: We expect the improved political
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90 minutes in, and now including ETHE:
$320M in volumes for ETH ETFs vs. $610M for Bitcoin.
More than 50%!
Ex out ETHE and the total is $187M or 31%
A half hour in, ETH ETFs have traded $59M vs. Bitcoin ETFs at $183M for a ratio of 32%.
(had to calc Grayscale manually)
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$COIN upgraded to BUY at CITI
"Shifts in the U.S. Election landscape and the Supreme Court’s overturning of the long-standing Chevron precedent has changed our view on Coinbase’s regulatory risks."
Raises target price 33% to $345
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A half hour in, ETH ETFs have traded $59M vs. Bitcoin ETFs at $183M for a ratio of 32%.
(had to calc Grayscale manually)
In early action, the
#ETH
ETFs have traded $30M today vs. Bitcoin ETFs at $130M for a ratio of 23%
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Solana outage, what happened?
BPF loader, the “Berkley Packet Filter,” which is the mechanism to deploy upgrade and execute programs on Solana, failed. This seems to relate to a previous SMID (Solana Improvement Proposal) that altered some of the features including the adding a
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Cambodian Taxi Driver in SF, second question to me:
"Who are you supporting for President."
"Me? Trump. How about you? Do you like Harris?"
"No, I think only women support her. Look at this City. When I came to SF seventeen years ago, this place was a paradise. Tourists
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@yashar
@briantaff6abc
Dodged the first two questions again; recovered with the personal stuft at the end.
I doubt that this strategy of overly scripted policy answers can win, though. Voters expect more.
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I met a
@federalreserve
"crypto researcher" at a conference last week. He doesn't own any digital assets (not allowed to) & didn't understand the difference between an exchange and a custodian.
SEC is having trouble hiring crypto experts — because of a rule they must sell all their crypto
Would make more sense to allow staff to hold a modest amount. This would also make them better at their job
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Axios reports VP Harris Considering Wally Adeyemo for Treasury Secretary.
This is the Deputy Secretary who called digital asset firms "a clear and present danger for national security" 👎
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Under the new Misinformation Act just proposed in Australia, you are Guilty if your speech causes "harm to public confidence in the banking system."
Platforms who do not silence such content incur penalties including a maximum fine of 5 per cent of their global revenue.
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SWIFT announces new digital asset efforts, emphasizing regulated environments.
Their experiments focus on interoperability between traditional finance & emerging technologies like tokenized assets & CBDCs.
The only L1 SWIFT has ever mentioned in such communications, is
#ETH
.
We’re paving the way towards real-world solutions that will enable our members to transact interchangeably with regulated
#DigitalAssets
and currencies on the Swift network.
👉 Discover what’s next on this exciting journey:
#DigitalCurrencies
#innovation
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In early action, the
#ETH
ETFs have traded $30M today vs. Bitcoin ETFs at $130M for a ratio of 23%
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We've done so many client meetings on
#Bitcoin
recently.
Here are some of the questions we get, and our answers -->
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@BillAckman
Don't forget that the Biden administration just gave Iran, Hamas' principal backers, $6B.
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BREAKDOWN:
Largest negative correlation, Global Stocks (MSCI ACWI index) vs.
#Bitcoin
since early 2020 👀
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every time the 2-year traded below Fed Funds, the tightening was OVER
(except for 1978)
chart -->
#Bitcoin
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Bernstein Adds $AAVE to Model Portfolio, Reflecting More Bullish Outlook for DeFi as Money Market Rates Fall; Removes $SNX & $GMX
Notes DeFi Users up 4x since Jan '23
Given ETH lagging, "We believe it may be time to turn back attention to DeFi and Ethereum"
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VanEck to Waive Fee Initially on Spot Ethereum ETF
In an email to ETF dot com, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research for VanEck, wrote that the firm "aims to be a leader on crypto ETF fees even if it means we lose money at the outset."
They left out the 2nd part of the
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If Solana's State is so massive that no one can afford to collect and display all the historical data, can it truly be considered a global state machine? If we can’t access the full history, what does that mean for decentralization and transparency? Thoughts welcome!
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NY Fed Oversaw Massive KYC/AML Breach
80% of US Dollar Wires from Iraqi banks, via the SWIFT system, Secretly Flowed to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its anti-US militias.
Scheme Began in 2003, Not Halted Until 2022.
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WRONG.
The S-1 is the initial registration statement filed with the SEC for the issuance of new securities, including ETFs. It provides detailed information about the fund, including its investment strategy and risks.
Form 19b-4 is typically filed after the S-1 has been
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NARRATIVE VIOLATION:
"Coinbase app downloads in 1Q were down 6% QoQ to 2.7M, the lowest quarterly figure since 3Q20, while Binance & were both up 9% QoQ and Kraken increased 5% QoQ."
(BinanceUS gained share vs. Coinbase in Q1, per Bofa)
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@kale_abe
I didn't realize that competitive business activities constituted "dick wagging".
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@SenSchumer
What is "far-right" about securing the border? A majority of Americans support this. Stop with these labels please.
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23% of Day 1 Spot Bitcoin ETF Volumes is a Great Result for
#ETH
ETFs, which collectively traded $1.1B.
And proud that $45M of $ETHV traded, beating our day 1 $HODL volumes of $26M!
We had a smol AUM head-start thanks to
@JanvanEck3
's legendary conviction. Long may it last.
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🚨🚨 Kamala Harris Likely to Nominate Gary Gensler as Treasury Secretary if Elected: Washington Reporter 🚨🚨
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ALL-TIME HIGH
% of ETH locked in smart contracts, 39% (vs 31% YoY).
ALL-TIME LOW
% ETH Supply on exchanges, 10% (vs 13% YoY).
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The constant trolling of
#ETH
feels exhausting and intellectually dishonest.
Every L1 needs moneyness to thrive, and moneyness is a multi-faceted concept. In traditional finance, a company's stock is valued based on its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, reflecting how much investors
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hedge funds are front-running the
#ETH
ETF approvals, ETH on exchanges is near an all-time low, fundamentals are improving.
I could be eating BBQ HODL hat by July 4th.
And you're bearish?
options market divergence reveals
#ETH
bearish positioning:
BTC put/call ratio (near lows) vs. ETH put/call ratio (near highs).
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Kamala > Biden in the betting markets, first time ever
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Investments in digital assets are subject to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and digital assets' value can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise
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Turns out, the ultimate degree is in hustling.
25 Fortune 500 CEOs in 2024 skipped college.
Anons, your time is now.
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If asked again why these stocks have underperformed, I would simply quote the piece:
"We speak to many investors 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐮𝐧𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 that bitcoin miners now have significant exposure to AI. The synergy is simple: AI companies need energy, and bitcoin miners have it."
⏬️
JUST IN: $108 billion VanEck's Matthew Sigel tells CNBC that all the big
#Bitcoin
selling is behind us 👀
"Bitcoin really hits its stride at that point, so we're buyers here, we think it recovers" 🚀
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ONE HUNDRED MILLION MONTHLY ACTIVE DEGENERATES
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Solana ETFs may come sooner than...
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Donald Trump Unveils GOP Platform Including Crypto
"Will end Democrats' unlawful and unAmerican crypto crackdown...Will defend the right to mine
#bitcoin
and ensure every American has the right to self-custody."
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"Blockchain has a product-market-fit & repeat-user problem & VCs know it. 'Self-custody' & 'Digital-Gold' resonate with many, but without a two order of magnitude increase in users & engagement, the likelihood of VCs "returning the fund" have substantially diminished." - MS
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Some have noticed that the 19b-4 for the VanEck Solana ETF has been removed from the CBOE website.
Remember that Exchanges like Nasdaq & CBOE file rule changes (19b-4) to list new ETFs. Issuers like VanEck are responsible for the prospectus (S-1). Ours remains in play.
Forms 19b-4 for VanEck and 21Shares Solana ETFs appear to have been removed from the CBOE website.
Documents SR-CboeBZX-2024-066 & SR-CboeBZX-2024-067 aren’t accessible anymore via direct link, and are no longer visible in BZX Pending Rule Changes.
Another interesting thing is
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StoneX Says
#ETH
to Rally 40% in 2 Months Post ETF Launch
"To model Ethereum, we adopted a DCF approach, using staking rewards instead of free cash flows.
Leveraging on-chain data, our robust model forecasts Ethereum's price between $2,142 and $12,621 over the next two years.
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Japanese Prime Minister Will Speak at Sony's L2 Event
I look forward to speaking about
@soneium
at WebX on 28th. There will be some new announcements.
We are literally Going Mainstream!
Prime Minister of the Japanese Government
Minister of Economics
Soneium from Jun from Sony Group and myself.
Let's GM!
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VanEck
#ETH
ETN is now the
#1
traded such product on Deutsche Boerse by volume.
Our
#BTC
ETN is
#2
.
And our crypto UCITS ETF was the best performer of 2023 out of 1,372 funds Bloomberg tracks -->
@vaneck_eu
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JPM: "One can find several reasons for institutional investors to remain optimistic [about
#bitcoin
]:
1. Morgan Stanley has recently allowed its wealth advisors to recommend spot bitcoin ETFs to their clients.
2. The bulk of liquidations of in-kind crypto payments from Mt. Gox
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"About $84 trillion is expected to pass from seniors and baby boomers to Gen X, millennials and their heirs through 2045" - BofA
-Crypto / digital assets is the 2nd most favored "greatest opportunities for growth" for those 21-43
- Self-identified "Conservative" investors aged
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We like the coin.
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institutional investors report 600% increased exposure to digital assets 👀
from 1% to 7%.
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#Bitcoin
has been weak in recent days due to the sales by government entities including the US & German Government and the fears of large distributions from the Mt. Gox estate. Here what we wrote to clients:
The Mt Gox trustee currently holds ~$8B of bitcoins. They have recently
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"Towards the end of this year and into next year, we will begin to see allocations made in model portfolios" 👀
#ETH
BlackRock CIO of ETF and Index Investments Samara Cohen discusses the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) and expects we'll see allocation of crypto ETFs in model portfolios by the end of this year and into 2025
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Hearing things about an open source app store called Ethereum.
Apparently it's powered by a commodity called
#ETH
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"ETH is an open-source app store"
We estimate ETH's price to hit $22k by 2030 in our updated base case scenario and explore optimal BTC and ETH allocations in both traditional 60/40 and crypto-only portfolios.
🧵
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@typesfaster
This is an exaggeration. The district has the least amount or affordable housing of any in the City, and that's what this will become. Not a shelter.
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How much higher can
#ETH
go?
We see Ethereum network revenues rising from an annual rate of $2.6B to $51B in 2030. Assuming ETH takes a 70% market among smart contract protocols, our base case implies a token price of $11.8k in 2030, which we discount to $5.3k today at a 12% cost
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For the record, VanEck believes SOL is a commodity, much like BTC and ETH. This belief is informed by evolving legal perspectives, where courts and regulators have begun to recognize that certain crypto assets may function as securities in primary markets but behave more like
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Many traditional finance market participants may not fully understand that
#ETH
is not just a speculative asset but has extensive real-world utility underpinning a vibrant decentralized application ecosystem. Ethereum supports over 270 million unique user addresses and processes
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The sell-side coverage & commentary on $COIN is so bigoted.
It is obvious that bulge bracket analysts are being censored on that stock because of chokepoint 2.0.
Sad state of affairs for marketplace credibility.
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Wintermute in Talks to Raise Funds from Tencent at $2B valuation 👀
Deal size may be up to $300M
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German mistakes this century:
1) Nuclear phase-out
2) Nord Stream 2
3) Refugee policy
4) Slow broadband rollout vs. peers
4) Green Energy "subsidies without adequate grid work
5) Automotive emissions scandal
6) Selling
#bitcoin
three months after the halving
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SEC Intends to Amend Complaint Against Third Party Tokens (Like SOL) in Binance Case
This means that the Judge won't have to decide whether 10 tokens such as Solana and Matic are unregistered securities or not.
May be bullish for $SOL ETF prospects
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Amazon became the landlord of a
#Bitcoin
mining facility after buying a neighboring data center.
The lines between cloud and crypto infrastructure keep getting blurrier🧐
$WULF $TLN
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Just what we need, more centralization, designed by "experts" 😠
About time, no? In the U.S. there are 50 different state regulatory frameworks for money transmitters like PayPal and Coinbase. The 'Uniform Money Transmission Modernization Act' proposes a single set of nationwide standards.
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🚨 VAN ECK ENTERS STABLECOIN MARKET 🚨 -->
Agora USD will be backed by cash, t-bills and overnight repo.
@vaneck_us
will manage Agora's reserves.
"Until there's federal legislation for stablecoins in the US, we're going to focus primarily on customers outside."
@Nick_van_Eck
🔥🚀
Nick Van Eck, son of investment management veteran Jan Van Eck, is making a bet on crypto with the help of his namesake family business
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The last time
#ETH
outperformed the Nasdaq during a down month for $CCMP (October 2023), it rose 26% over the next two months and 85% over the subsequent four months.
July-to-date:
ETH -1%
Nasdaq -2%
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Meet the Senior Advisor to Kamala Harris' 2024 campaign, and her former Communications Director.
You have to admire the conviction to leave the tweet up.
Personnel = Policy
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Counter to Common Sentiment,
#Ethereum
has Regained Substantial Market Share of Fees Among Fee-Earning L1 Blockchains, Rebounding from a Low of 9% Share in Late August to Reach 40% Today.
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Bernstein: "Legacy data centers are actually REIT businesses (DLR, EQIX), often drawing value from real estate, rather than power strategy being their focal point.
In contrast,
#Bitcoin
miners have built strategy around ‘stranded power’ and thus locations are non-conventional
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Jack Dorsey preaching
#Bitcoin
to JPM TMT conference attendees:
"[We] are disrupting ourselves"
"We're going to take the majority of the Bitcoin mining chip market"
"If we have a secure network, we have secure money"
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thoughts on the Toly/Drake debate:
1) We think the economic security thing is not a meme. Drake is right that it is important and its foolish of Toly to try to argue otherwise. Lots of locked value can be taken in an attack if 51% of stake is subsumed (or 66%). It is important.
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"Morgan Stanley is the first [wirehouse] to allow some
#bitcoin
ETFs to be solicited to clients from its army of over 15,000 advisors. We expect the others to soon follow suit, potentially doubling or tripling
#bitcoinETF
assets."
h/t
@EricBalchunas
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JPM research this AM:
"Both gold &
#bitcoin
benefit from the increased chances of a Trump win as a second Trump presidency is seen by some investors as more friendly towards crypto companies & towards crypto regulations, in contrast to the current Biden administration that
Jamie Dimon has "all of a sudden changed his tune" on Bitcoin
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one of these "fintech" stocks is not like the others $COIN
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#ETH
ETF Launchoooors Compete For Dwindling Exchange Supply As Staking Hits Fresh All-Time High
GM.
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#bitcoin
miners: ready for the laggard trade?
>an equal-weighted index of the top 5 US Bitcoin miners is down 8% YTD vs. BTC +62%, ETH +56% and SOL +103%.
>While we highlighted in our 2024 predictions piece that such underperformance was likely, the degree has reached a point
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