Jean Pisani-Ferry
@pisaniferry
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@Bruegel_org @PIIE @Europeanuni @sciencespo @cepr_org . Chair @I4CE_ Writing for @ProSyn @lemondefr @_Terra_Nova .
Joined May 2012
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L’Allemagne impressionne encore et toujours par la force et le courage de du travail qu’elle mène sur son histoire. Quel autre pays serait capable de cela ?
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250.000 personnes contre le racisme dans les rues de Milan. 5000 gilets jaunes à Paris.
L'onda di
#Milano
, l'Italia che dice no -
#Buongiorno
con la
#primapagina
di Repubblica di oggi
#rassegnastampa
#3marzo
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When nearly 2m people demonstrate for a cause and nearly 5m petition for it, but no party in parliament speaks for them, is it a political crisis or a constitutional crisis? One more big question for the UK
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Having regarded the EU’s initial missteps as consequential, I must admit that I was wrong. It is impressive to see that for all its failings, the EU ends up having vaccinated a larger proportion of its population AND exported many more jabs than the US
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Dans
@LesEchos
, Gaspard Koenig rappelle qu'en France, le taux d'homicide a été divisé par deux en trente ans. Courageux d'évoquer les chiffres quand la métrique politique de
@GDarmanin
préfère le "bon sens" du boucher-charcutier de Tourcoing aux données de
@InseeFr
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120m booster vaccine doses administered in rich countries (before this month’s acceleration) and only 60m PRIMARY doses in poor countries. This is not just unfair, this is collective madness.
@FT
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The Imperial College COVID report is being discussed. But a major takeaway from it will likely survive discussion: the human cost of a pure mitigation strategy is inacceptable, whilst a pure suppression strategy is unsustainable over time (thread)
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Very German obsession. And strange disconnect from reality. No,
@EmmanuelMacron
does not want a check from Germany.
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US and Chinese world dominance in trade (left) and finance (right). A fascinating graphic representation of today’s dual worlds by
@helene_rey
and co-authors
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Not rocket science, but transparent, available in real-time and unbiased: The French statistical institute
@InseeFr
publishes weekly stats on overmortality, with geographical detail. Should be done in all countries where it is possible.
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A tale of two countries: European states have put in place massive and highly costly emergency safety nets for employees, the US prepares for massive lay-offs and sick workers show up at work in order to avoid being fired. Which will work? Answer in a few months
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Maniéré, contourné, sans esprit : voici Paris affligé d’un nouvel objet prétentieux de
@ateliersjnouvel
. Mais qu’avons nous fait pour mériter cela ?
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You cannot defeat an adversary ready to endure a 20% drop in income if you are not willing to risk a 2% decline in your own. But the leaders who recently dared to lock down their fellow citizens are now unwilling to tell them to drive a little slower.
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A French high school teacher was beheaded on street by a fanatic yesterday after having taught his students that in our country, freedom of blasphemy is part of freedom of expression. Hard to think (and tweet) about anything else.
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Un homme de convictions et d’enthousiasmes. Un leader
@thehertieschool
. Un social-démocrate créatif. Un Français de coeur, Européen d’engagements. Le meilleur de l’Allemagne moderne. Un collègue, un comparse, un ami, un frère.
@henrikenderlein
1974-2021.
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German President Steinmeier has found the words that resonate. Very strong words. And a very deep concern.
“At the time, we were liberated. Today, we must liberate ourselves… From hatred and hate speech, from xenophobia and contempt for democracy – for they are but the old evil in a new guise.”
The President of Germany marks 75 years since the end of the war in Europe.
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For many years, there has been a disconnect between climate policy and macro policy debates. This disconnect is not tenable anymore. In a new
@PIIE
Policy Brief, I discuss the macroeconomic policy implications of climate action (thread).
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.
@francoisbaroin
, de grâce, pas d'affabulations sur l'imposition des "loyers fictifs". Mise au point :
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Warning to the uninformed reader: reading
@HansWernerSinn
, you may believe that (a) Spain 1999 was bankrupt; (b) German taxpayers’ money was given to Italy; (c) France expects German transfers. All that is wrong.
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On 18 December 2010, ten years ago, Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa passed away. He was an economist with the Bank of Italy, an Italian and European civil servant, a member of the
@ecb
's very first board, and an Italian MinFin) [short thread]
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OECD’s chief economist doubts national officials “have made a leap into a new conceptual framework” for fiscal policy. Well said
@LauBooneEco
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Je reviens sur
@X
à l’occasion de la mort de Daniel Cohen. Pour des générations d’étudiants il a été le meilleur des éveilleurs. Il incarnait aussi le meilleur de la tradition française de l’intellectuel engagé dans les débats de la cité. Une très grande perte. Il manque déjà.
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Bataille essentielle, par delà cette campagne. Merci aux historiens pour ce travail de vérité.
@Offenstadt
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Arrivée à Paris en provenance de la zone Schengen. Pas de contrôle sanitaire bien sûr mais le passeport est dûment vérifié. Les virus sans papiers ne passeront pas !
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Ce n’est pas le ministre de l’économie qui décide du calcul du PIB, celui des Finances du calcul du déficit, ou celui du Travail du calcul du chômage. Pourquoi, dans la République, est-ce le ministre de l’Intérieur qui fixe la métrique électorale ?
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Impressive strength. Obituaries of globalisation have been premature.
Global trade is bouncing back fast.
WTO now thinks trade fell by only 5.3% in 2020 and will grow by 8% in 2021!
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Moment of truth for Europe. Ireland’s finance minister (and chair of the Eurogroup) opposes the US proposal for a minimum 15% taxation on the profit of multinationals. Will the EU embrace tax justice or remain hostage of its own tax havens?
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New job: I leave French govenrment today to join
@EmmanuelMacron
' s campaign as director of programme and ideas.
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La dette publique ne coûte pas cher, c’est une chance en ce moment. Mais prétendre qu’on peut s’en débarrasser sans dommage, c’est une mystification. Annuler la dette, c’est toujours en transférer le fardeau à d’autres. Ma chronique
@lemondefr
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Chancellor Merkel's approval rating over 16 years (from
@CER_EU
): low point 50 per cent, current level 84 per cent. certainly a 21st-century record. And what a strength when speaking to other leaders!
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After you’ve worked on a book for years the moment it lands on your desk is inevitably emotional. On the rational side, this second edition is largely a new book cos so much has changed since the previous one. We cover what has transformed the economic policy landscape.
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28 per cent corporate income tax rate + global minimum tax rate at 21 per cent on a country-by-country basis: Biden’s plan is a game-changer, not only for the US but for global corporate taxation. Bad day for the tax havens.
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France was the frontline - and still is. A huge responsibility for
@EmmanuelMacron
and the French citizens. And a great first result.
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Garder l’euro, mais tourner le dos à l’Europe : une tentation qui monte, mais un projet incohérent — ma chronique
@lemondefr
via
@LaMatinale_M
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I am afraid for real. To play it’s role effectively the EU must (a) reallocate money according to needs and (b) spread the cost of over time, i.e. find ways to borrow. That’s what leaders must decide at their summit on 23/4. Time to choose if EU is
part of the solution - or not
For real? EU rebadges cohesion funds as corona crisis response but then allocates the funds according to old key -> HUNGARY with mild COVID-19 outbreak receives 5.6bn = 3.8% of GDP v. Italy 2.3bn = 0.1%
Did
@derspiegel
miss something? Or this is as grotesque as it sounds?
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Par une banque...anglaise. Et même commencer anthropologue et finir spécialiste de la finance. Pas en France hélas, où seul le droit public mène à tout. Et où apprendre à penser fait souvent figure de dangereuse distraction.
Très vrai. On peut faire du grec à Oxford et être embauché par une banque. Il est stupide de croire qu’on apprend un métier à l’université. On apprend à penser.
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Un plan de relance qui se résumerait à transférer aux pays du Sud quelques dizaines de milliards conditionnellement à des réformes n’aurait aucun sens économique et serait un désastre politique. Better no deal tgan a bad deal.
Angela Merkel et Emmanuel Macron ont quitté ensemble la salle du Conseil européen: le compromis en discussion est jugé « trop faible »
#EUCO
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30 mois après un master de sciences éco, les femmes gagnent 12% de moins que les hommes et la part de cadres est 13 points points plus basse. Vraiment énorme.
@LaMatinale_M
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Morning (very bad) news: Global CO2 emissions +1.7% in 2018. Cause not higher growth but increased reliance on coal and fossil fuels. Europe the only region where emissions decreased. US +3.1% China + 2.5%. Really dismal.
@iea
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Looking for sanctions? Thanks to
@gabriel_zucman
and co-authors, here is an estimate of the Russian oligarchs’ (top 0.01%) wealth held domestically and abroad. The offshore assets of this tiny clique amount to 7% of total household wealth HT
@paulkrugman
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Mario Draghi’s Second “Whatever It Takes”: A massive, multi-year stimulus programme to change expectations and put Italy on a sustained growth trajectory. Exactly the opposite to the fiscally cautious standard EU strategy (1/2). My
@ProSyn
column.
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.
@BrankoMilan
’s book Capitalism, Alone, opens with this stunning quotation from Adam Smith. Written in 1776 and amazingly prescient (thread, it’s too long for a single tweet)
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If you still have doubts about the economic impact of the coronavirus, have a look at these
@NYTimes
graphics
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My take on the Yellow Vests: A lot of unknowns and many French specifics but the middle-class feeling that the social contract is broken echoes what we have seen in the UK, the US and elsewhere.
@ProSyn
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Economists can’t anymore ignore the reality of geopolitical rivalry. But foreign policy types can’t ignore the potential economic costs of geopolitical primacy. A new conversation is developing. Its outcome will determine the fate of the global economy.
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On le savait, cette carte le montre: en bleu les zones d'emploi, en rouge les zones d'habitation. En moins de quinze ans la France s'est transformée.
HT Observatoire des territoires
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Une autre aventure commence : je rejoins
@EmmanuelMacron
pour prendre en charge programme et idées.
@enmarchefr
(2/2)
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.
@KlausReglingESM
was first the German architect of the European fiscal rules, and then their enforcer as DG of economic affairs with the
@EU_Commission
. Now chief of the European IMF, he says loud and clear that the EU fiscal framework is obsolete.
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Fascinating map
@gabriel_zucman
. So many losers, so few and tiny winners.. That can't last.
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Exit vs. Voice : la finance européenne (notamment française) s’est verdie en sortant du capital de
@TotalEnergies
. Les investisseurs américains sont devenus les premiers actionnaires. Gain pour la planète : au mieux zéro, probablement une perte.
@LesEchos
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Évidemment la question est légitime mais les graphiques publiés ne démontrent en rien ce que le titre affirme. Un peu de sérieux statistique serait bienvenu
@lemondefr
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French statistical institute (
@InseeFr
) estimates economic activity is currently 35% below normal. Each month at this level implies a 3% decline in annual GDP. Data-based with a dose of judgement, and much more informative than unreliable forecasts
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La pensée écologiste s’est construite contre le capitalisme et contre la ceoissance. Mais pour sauver le climat elle va devoir se réconcilier avec eux et inventer l’écolo-productivisme. Ma chronique
@lemondefr
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JOB! I am looking for a part-time (1-2 d/w) RA to help me with policy papers and research coordination
*Master economics/public policy (economic focus)
*Quantitative skills
*Versatility
*Work in En and Fr
*9/21 to 7/22
*Paris-based
Pls send CV by 29/7 to margherita.fabbri
@eui
.eu
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Day of shame for Europe:
On 6 December, the Aquarius ended rescue operations in the Mediterranean. Was forced to end them in fact.
via
@msf
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Apparemment, nous Français avons collectivement décidé de combattre la pandémie en remplissant à la main des bordereaux ensuite acheminés vers la Cnam pour être saisis sur clavier. Pour sauver des vies nous avons choisi la lenteur et les erreurs. On va en payer le prix.
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Demand for surveillance will inevitably rise as the death toll increases. Authoritarian temptations will strengthen (remember the low level of trust in democracy). The challenge is to define rules and devise systems that combine effectiveness and respect for privacy.
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No better way to depict the extraordinary character of our economic times than this amazing chart by
@martinwolf_
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A reboot for the Franco_German couple. Impressive.
Now comes the harder part: EU-27 negotiations. Beware of the alliance of the stingy and the selfish.
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Anti-ECB campaign in Germany is worrying. It is regarded as the culprit for low rates, macro woes and few German economists stand up to to defend it. Good that
@MFratzscher
tries to dispel myths.
Wir driften in Deutschland in eine gefährliche anti-europäische, anti-EZB Hysterie ab.
Ich habe selten so viel Unfug über die EZB gehört, wie hier. Höchste Zeit für einen ehrlichen Dialog um die deutschen Mythen zur EZB Geldpolitik zu entlarven. 1/N
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Aller-retour Paris-Barcelone hier et aujourd’hui. À Barcelone, entrée libre et contrôle sanitaire rigoureux. À Paris, contrôle d’identité rigoureux et aucun contrôle sanitaire. Chacun ses priorités.
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La déclaration Macron-Merkel brise deux tabous : celui des transferts et celui de l'endettement commun. C'est majeur, même s'il reste à surmonter l'alliance des pingres et des égoïstes. Mon interview à
@libe
(sous paywall hélas)
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En Israël, 80% des plus de 60 ans vaccinés le 10 janvier !
Israel vaccination update:
~500,000 vaccinated (>5% of pop)
~25% of all 60+ years old vaccinated
We estimate that in a week we will see a lower percent of 60+ years old out of the critically ill, going from ~70% now to ~20% by mid-January
Hope this forecast will come true
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La France redevient inexorablement une société d’héritiers, mais nous sommes à peu près aussi opposés aux inégalités que réservés sur les moyens fiscaux de les réduire. Ma chronique
@lemondefr
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En Allemagne, les partis qui vont gouverner ensemble parlent numérisation, transition écologique, économie et politiques sociales. Sur l’immigration, un seul paragraphe empreint de sérénité. Merci
@Grand_Continent
de publier le Sondierungspapier.
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80 years in one graph. Births twice higher than deaths in the 1960s. Deaths almost twice higher than births in 2020, with Covid. Let’s hope vaccines will trigger a baby boom. From
@FinancialTimes
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Dans
@Grand_Continent
, un beau portrait intellectuel de Daniel Cohen, par deux de ses anciens étudiants,
@LevyAntoine
et
@ElenaMaximin
.
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Révolution dans les urnes. Rien n'est joué mais tout est possible. Heureux et fier d'avoir pris part à la campagne de
@EmmanuelMacron
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Will the pandemic mark the end of the growth model of the last three decades? A new consensus made of climate action/economic security/inclusiveness is emerging but the transition to a new growth model will be tough. In my
@ProSyn
column I explain why
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The euro was expected to deliver economic integration, policy convergence, political amalgamation and external influence. 20 years on, my scoreboard. On
@ProSyn
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@Challenges
, savez-vous ce que vous faites ? Que remuez-vous ? La France est-elle en manque de complotisme ?
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First a stalemate on completing banking union, second a meaningless BICC (aka nano-eurozone budget), now an underwhelming reform of the ESM (aka would-be European IMF). Eurozone government have failed to fix the roof while the sun was shining. /1
The ESM reform was meant to: (i) communautarise its governance and reduce the scope for national vetoes, (ii) improve its capacity to act pre-emptively and (iii) arrange the backstop to the single resolution mechanism. It has failed on all counts.
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Marie-Antoinette Trump: let them breathe fresh air!
If you are able, try to take a few moments to get outside & breathe in some fresh air. Enjoy spring & beautiful nature! We all need to take care of ourselves so that we can try to help take care of others.
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The English version of my report to the French PM (joint with
@Selma_Mahfouz
) on the economic implications of the transition to Net Zero is now available on
@Strategie_Gouv
. We look forward to important debates!
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A stunning graph (for the UK), from
@bankofengland
’s Ben Broadbent recent speech on the inflationary consequences of real shocks. The message in it is that the rise in the prices of imports has massively cut real domestic income. The same applies to European economies.
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As of 1/10, joining
@EuropeanUni
as holder of the Tommaso Padoa Schioppa chair (succeeding Richard Portes). Honour and responsibility!
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« La gauche a abandonné la liberté comme projet. La droite a abandonné la liberté comme tradition. » « Nous assistons sans mot dire au remplacement de l’idéal des libertés par le culte des droits ». À lire et à méditer, François Sureau.
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Not just states vs. markets: COVID19 reminds us that « There is such thing as a society ». Very insightful piece by Samuel Bowles
@WendyCarlinEcon
on
@voxeu
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There is a lot of confusion in the discussion on public debt monetization.
@ojblanchard1
and I have tried to clarify it, in general and for the eurozone (thread).
Monetisation: Do not panic
The
#covid
-19 crisis has raised fears that large-scale monetisation will result in a major inflation episode,
@pisaniferry
@sciencespo
&
@ojblanchard1
@PIIE
think central banks are doing the right thing and see no reason to panic
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That's the challenge our democracies are facing. Transparency is a good compass. Fortunately it has been a guiding principle of public health policies in many countries. So there can be hope. (End)
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Today was my first day as Visiting Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
@PIIE
. I am thrilled to be part of this great team that has contributed so much to analysis and policy innovation and look forward to many challenging discussions. Thanks
@AdamPosen
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German economists have changed.. (and this one advised Meiji’s Japan)
"A state without public debt is either doing too little for the future or demanding too much from the present.” Lorenz von Stein (1871)
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40% of US citizens do not feel free to express their opinions and declare that they self-censor. No political bias but the more educated they are, the more they self-censor. They were half as many in the 1970s and the 1980s. Worrying.
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There has always been a large supply of (often obscure) German economics professors opposing the euro and initiatives aimed at strengthening it. With always the same arguments. Sad but not lethal. There are too many missing names in this list for it to be taken too seriously.
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Can the "Asian strategy" of testing and tracking be a way out (after suppression)? Examples of Korea, HK, Singapore (leave China out cos political regime) are impressive but involve a high level of social control made possible by technology.
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In a post-truth world, there’s gonna be more and more casualties amongst truth fighters. It looks like Penny Goldberg (
@Penny_WB
) deserves to be awarded a medal of honour.
@TheEconomist
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L’extrême-droite est loin d’avoir conquis le pouvoir, mais sa conquête des fantasmes est impressionnante. Comment six Français sur dix peuvent-ils adhérer à des balivernes? Sondage
@Challenges
.
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