CER
@CER_EU
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The CER is an award winning think-tank devoted to making the EU work better and strengthening its role in the world. We are pro-European but not uncritical.
London, GB
Joined January 2011
An open, pragmatic approach, sharply focused on Europe’s military needs would serve Europeans well. #DefenceUnion. 🆕 @CER_EU policy brief by @LScazzieri. Read here:
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Latest CER estimate: the UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if Britain had voted remain. The knock-on hit to the public finances is £19 billion per annum – or £360 million a week.
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.@johnspringford has updated his cost of Brexit model for the second quarter of 2022. Britain’s economy is 5.5% smaller as a result of Brexit. #costofbrexit.
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📺 @JohnSpringford spoke to @ITVJoel about the impact that Brexit has had on the UK economy. His findings:.▪ GDP down by 5.2 per cent .▪ Investment 13.7 per cent lower.▪ Goods trade reduced by 13.6 per cent. All figures compared to a 'doppelgänger' UK economy still in 🇪🇺. 1/2
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🇵🇱 🇪🇺 🇭🇺 The EU will soon decide on Poland & Hungary's recovery funding, in the context of democratic backsliding & corruption there. But these problems go beyond both countries. However you prefer to get clued-up on our latest #anticorruption research, we’ve got you covered. /1.
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“China’s overproduction is quite staggering at this point,” said @SanderTordoir of @CER_EU. “The number of loss-making industrial firms in China is now at 180,000, which is at least three times as high as in any point in the last 25 years.” .
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Who should pay for reconstructing Ukraine? . Western governments want the private sector to do the lion’s share, but they would do better to use Russia’s frozen assets. 🇺🇦 🇷🇺. 🆕 @CER_EU insight by @tashecon & @CER_IanBond ahead of #URC23 .
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Disappointing to hear @theresa_may suggest that EU nationals have somehow been bending migration rules for years – it has been their (and UK citizens') right to move freely across EU & comment does not give due credit to big contribution EU nationals make to UK
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Future historians will ask why the British government paid so little attention to economics during the negotiation. The short answer that Johnson’s government prioritised sovereignty. New insight by @CER_Grant.
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"Brexit's supporters maintained leaving the EU would put rocket boosters under the UK economy. It has done the opposite, cutting the size of the economy by over 5%, according to the Centre for European Reform.". @Hugodixon quotes @JohnSpringford's research.
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No withdrawal agreement means no transition period: if there is a no-deal #Brexit, UK citizens living in the EU would become third-country nationals on November 1st. New CER bulletin article by @CaminoMortera .
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@hilarybennmp tells @CER_EU event at Labour conf: we need to force government to change its mind on UK remaining in the customs union.
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Clarification re @Jacob_Rees_Mogg + @SteveBakerHW comments on @CER_Grant. “I did not say or imply that the Treasury had deliberately developed a model to show that all non-customs union options were bad, with the intention to influence policy,” @CER_Grant
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John Bolton is not a trade envoy–his concerns are Iran, China, Huawei “He is using the carrot of a potential free trade agreement with the US -something the UK and Brexit supporters have wanted for a while- as a means of applying pressure to the UK” @SamuelMarcLowe tells @SkyNews
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Something doesn't add up - Brexiters are confident a hard Irish border can be avoided with existing tech & other arrangements, so why are they worried about the backstop? If they're right these border solutions would make the backstop redundant.
Customs Expert Lars Karlsson was commissioned by the EU to find a solution to the Northern Irish border. He found one - so what’s the problem?
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.@JohnSpringford has updated his ‘cost of Brexit’ model. #Brexit had reduced Britain’s GDP by 5.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2022.
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There is no ‘Brexit dividend’. According to new CER analysis, Brexit is now damaging the public finances by £440 million a week. 'What's the cost of Brexit so far?' by @JohnSpringford. #costofbrexit .#BrexitDividend
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☝️ Footage from @itvnews 📺. 🔎 @JohnSpringford's full report on the cost of #Brexit will be available on our website tomorrow. 📉 In the meantime, here's ITV's write-up of his latest research 👇 2/2.
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If Putin were to capture the Suwalki gap, connecting Poland to Lithuania, it would cut off the three Baltic nations from the rest of NATO. @CER_IanBond says Western deployments in Poland and the Baltics need to be beefed up. Speaking to @StevenErlanger:.
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🚨 🎧 We're excited to introduce our new podcast, 'Ask CER'. 🗣 Every six weeks, our researchers will answer your questions about all things European policy, breaking down topics you're interested in knowing more about.
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The doppelgänger (or synthetic control) method has been controversial in the Brexit debate. In a new insight, @JohnSpringford shows why it's the best way to assess the economic impact of Brexit. #costofbrexit .
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When British politicians talk about an extension they often give the impression that it is just a question of asking politely. But they ignore the fact that Brexit is a negotiation, not a monologue. New CER insight by @AgataGostynska.
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Irish PM right to tell Johnson there is no such thing as a clean break Brexit on Oct 31 or even Jan 31 - “we will just move on to a new phase” – CER’s @JohnSpringford has set out why no deal would be a serious rupture that would be very difficult to repair
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“The US is a strong operator in trade agreements – it tends to get what it wants by being tough and pursuing its own interests, and it will make use of the fact that Britain post-Brexit will be very much in bad need of a trade deal" @CER_Grant tells @BBCWorld
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Forecasts of the long-term hit from Boris Johnson’s Brexit range from 2 to 7 per cent. @JohnSpringford has several reasons to fear that that the costs will be on the higher side.
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In the UK’s future, semi-permanent negotiations with the EU, it will be hampered by the fact that EU leaders do not trust Johnson’s government to keep its word or respect international law. New insight by @CER_Grant.
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CER is delighted to have won best think-tank for foreign affairs in the @prospect_uk 2020 awards🎉.
Winner of the Foreign Affairs award: @CER_EU.
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New @CER_EU insight by @JohnSpringford: UK goods trade was 5% smaller in February as a result of leaving the single market and customs union. That’s after a 10% fall between the referendum and the end of the transition period.
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"Based on the fact that Trump is always complaining about how little the Europeans do for their own defence, he ought actually to think that it was a good thing that the Europeans were taking care of this" @CER_IanBond tells @AFP @dmitryzaksAFP .
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Brexiters are being naive over US trade. Bombardier is a taste of things to come | @SimonTilford
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🇺🇦 For Ukraine, there is an element of risk in not seeking a rapid end to the fighting. If the West wants to mitigate that risk and bring about a quick end to the war, it should step up its military support to #Kyiv, argues @CER_IanBond.
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Brexit isn’t the main reason behind high inflation in the UK. But it is the main reason why GDP, investment and goods trade are so much lower than peer economies. @JohnSpringford’s latest on the cost of Brexit: .
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For the sake of Europe’s security, as well as its own, Ukraine needs to win, decisively, in a way that shatters any Russian dream of renewing the war for the foreseeable future. 🇺🇦 . Insight by @CER_IanBond:.
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For 30 years, the Russian elite has been able to loot its own country and benefit from the financial system, rule of law and lifestyle available in the West. It is time to put a stop to that arrangement. #UkraineRussia. New insight by @CER_IanBond.
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Johnson’s proposed EU-UK FTA will increase costs and friction for British businesses trading with the EU. For many, this would create a December 2020 cliff edge comparable to no deal. New insight by @SamuelMarcLowe: .
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Europe spends up to €800m per day on Russian gas, which goes towards financing Putin’s war machine. The EU's plans to reduce Russian gas imports by two thirds by the end of this year, and to end imports of Russian fossil fuels by 2027, are too leisurely:.
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British financial services exports to the European Union could plunge by over half if Theresa May takes the UK out of the single market as planned. In this episode of the @CER_EU podcast, @SamuelMarcLowe traces the impact of Brexit sector by sector.
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Why is the Irish #Brexit backstop a good thing for Northern Ireland? .1) It works .2) It places Northern Ireland in an advantageous position relative to Britain.3) It has public support.@SamuelMarcLowe writes in @prospect_uk.
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Latest estimate from @JohnSpringford’s cost of Brexit model: in October 2021 single market exit had reduced UK trade in goods by 15.7 per cent, or £12.6 bn.
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New insight by @SamuelMarcLowe: Northern Ireland and the backstop: why ‘alternative arrangements’ aren’t an alternative .
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The UK economy is 2.5% smaller than it would be if the UK had voted to remain in the EU. @JohnSpringford’s new estimate of the cost of Brexit is published today.
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Some of Draghi’s proposals are new, even ground-breaking. Others have been in the EU debate for some time. In 5 areas, his proposals will spark especially fierce debates about the direction of EU economic policy. #DraghiReport . 🆕 @CER_EU policy brief.
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Respect for the rule of law is declining in many EU member-states, not just in Central Europe. The World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators show that from 2009-2018 the rule of law deteriorated in 17 EU member-states.
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⏩ We then condensed this event into a podcast, with @osfEUpolicy. 💸 🎧 @CaminoMortera and @Carl_Dolan analysed the speakers' remarks and considered the prospects for anti-corruption and upholding the rule of law in Europe from here on out. ⚖ /end.
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UK ministers trying to downplay the gravity model on trade because “it eventually says we shouldn’t leave the EU,” says @SamuelMarcLowe
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.@CER_Grant remembers Stephen Tindale, our friend and colleague who tragically passed away on 1st July.
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In circumstances where #Putin is doing so many things that defy economic rationality, Western leaders should not assume that he would refrain from cutting off oil and gas supplies, causing immediate and severe harm to Europe’s economy. #RussiaUkraineWar.
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“Some of the demands the US will make of Britain in a trade agreement, such as following US agricultural standards for food safety, will make it much harder for the UK to trade with the EU after Brexit” @CER_Grant.
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In war, the ‘right’ side does not always win. Ukraine could lose. Western action (or inaction) suggests that governments are not worried enough about the consequences of Ukrainian defeat. 🆕 policy brief for @CER_EU by @CER_IanBond.
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CER's @SophiaBesch giving evidence to the Bundestag Committee for European Union Affairs yesterday, on qualified majority voting in EU foreign policy 🇪🇺. Watch back here:
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New CER insight 'Britain's services firms can't defy gravity, alas' by @JohnSpringford and @SamuelMarcLowe The UK’s specialism in services does not mean it’s entered a “post-geography trading world”
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EU will reject any kind of infrastructure on/close to the Irish border for two reasons: it's an invitation to terrorists to blow it up + it would damage the integrity of the EU’s single market/customs union - @CER_Grant tells @BBCr4today (from 08.55am)
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The UK economy is 2.9% smaller than it would be if the UK had voted to remain in the EU, according to @JohnSpringford’s latest estimate.
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"The UK-EU trade deal has imposed sizeable costs on importers, exporters + employers. The EU did put tariffs up. And it's gained more powers, rather than dissolving into a looser federation.". @JohnSpringford for the @Independent on #Brexit one year on:.
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According to @JohnSpringford’s latest estimate of the Brexit costs, published today, the UK’s government deficit would largely have been eliminated in the 2018-19 financial year if Britain had voted to Remain. #costofbrexit.
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UK govt did not make a formal quantitative assessment of economic impact of leaving customs union before it made that decision, says Brexit minister David Davis. This statement is unlikely to instil confidence in EU that UK knows what wants out of Brexit.
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Boris Johnson chose to put a customs and regulatory border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. He must face up to his decision and work with the EU to ensure trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK flows as smoothly as possible: .
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New @CER Insight by @JohnSpringford: UK goods trade was 11% smaller in March as a result of leaving the single market and customs union. That’s after a 10% fall between the referendum and the end of the transition period.
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New CER insight.'The Brussels view of Brexit' by @CER_Grant . The EU is no longer as united as it was on how to handle the British. But just about everyone working on Brexit in the EU’s institutions and governments is fed up with them.
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A new CER map of European productivity shows striking patterns: some British and German regions have productivity that's most similar to Greece’s.
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This analysis by @SamuelMarcLowe & @BethOppenheim sheds more light on why it’s in the UK’s economic interest to prioritise a close economic relationship with the EU over any potential trade deal with the US
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Misleading @TheSun headline – she didn’t call for an extension – she said "I stand ready for further extension of the withdrawal agreement should more time be required for a good reason" Follow @AgataGostynska for analysis of @vonderleyen speech
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🗣️ NATO should formally denounce the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. It was agreed in a different era, when Russia was committed to co-operation and NATO had no need to station forces in Central Europe. 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 New insight by @CER_IanBond:.
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The Polish government’s defiance over the rule of law puts the EU in a bind. To protect the Union’s integrity without alienating Polish citizens, the EU needs a mix of political pressure, legal action & better communication. New insight by @CaminoMortera .
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Post-Brexit reality has set in: official government impact assessments shows that new #FTAs can never compensate for #Brexit. New @CER_EU insight by @BergAslak.
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🇺🇦 🇷🇺 European leaders who have pretended defence can be had on the cheap will have to admit to their populations that freedoms need to be defended, defence needs to be paid for, and defence budgets will now have to rise. ✍️ New piece by @CER_IanBond:.
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🐟 CER's trade expert @SamuelMarcLowe says that some of the challenges Scottish fishermen are having in exporting goods to the EU are teething problems, but others are a permanent cost of Brexit. 📻 Speaking to @Sarah_Montague on #bbcwato:
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CER's @SamuelMarcLowe argues that if the UK wants significantly closer economic relations with the EU, it needs to rethink its approach to freedom of movement. 👔Giving evidence to @CommonsFREU, video thanks to @patricklohlein🙏
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.@carlbildt considers the new 🇺🇸 #NationalSecurityStrategy. The 2021 interim strategy spoke of “an assertive China & a destabilising Russia”, but Russia is now described as "posing an immediate & persistent threat to international peace & stability. #NSS.
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Many Western leaders still act as though what is happening in #Ukraine is someone else’s war. They're not neutral, but aren't treating the outcome of the conflict as a matter of vital interest to their countries. They should. ✍️ @CER_IanBond:.
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If 🇷🇺 can rebuild its strength, at least partially, while it still occupies a significant part of #Ukraine Putin’s starting point for his next attack will be more advantageous than it was in February. @CER_EU bulletin article by @CER_IanBond .
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We’re heading for a very serious train crash – Article 50 process is too short - should be six years-long so all possibilities can be explored, former Irish PM John Bruton tells #CERfutureEU conference.
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Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement satisfies no one, but given the weakness of her hand, it was the only deal that was negotiable with the EU. #BrexitDeal. New insight by @JohnSpringford.
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Many thanks to @RoryStewartUK for joining us yesterday to discuss the future of British foreign policy. You can watch a video of the event, chaired by @CER_Grant, here:.
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.@johnspringford and @cer_ianbond have read Marine Le Pen’s manifesto (so you don’t have to). It’s a recipe for EU paralysis and a weaker NATO. New CER insight:.
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If Europe were able to stop purchasing Russian oil and gas immediately, that might be the most effective sanction it could impose. The political will to take such a radical step is still absent, however. New by @CER_IanBond @Zach_CER & @ElisabettaCo .
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Despite the gravity of the war in Ukraine, the focus of the new US National Security Strategy is China, writes @carlbildt. The document says plenty about the importance of technology, but ignores the relevance of trade to national security.
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🇪🇺 Yesterday Ursula von der Leyen said Russian #sanctions are here to stay: "This is time for resolve and not appeasement.". But though instrumental to constraining Putin, sanctions must be part of a broader strategy, say @CER_IanBond & @Zach_CER. #SOTEU.
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The UK economy is 2.3 per cent smaller than it would have been had Britons voted to stay in the European Union. The latest update of the @CER_EU Cost of Brexit analysis, for the third quarter of 2018 by @JohnSpringford.
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📉 Using the data for December last year, @JohnSpringford's economic model puts UK trade loss at 14.9 per cent, or £12.9 billion for the month: the isolated impact of Brexit. Read his latest here 👇.
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📌 We are recruiting a research fellow to work on Brexit and trade, who would probably work in our London office, but could be based in Berlin or Brussels. Please see the job description and details on how to apply below 👇.
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While the UK government continues to prioritise sovereignty over close economic ties, the outlook for EU-UK data flows looks dim. New article by @Zach_CER and @CaminoMortera .
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New CER policy brief by @hilarybennmp: he surveys the stalemate between London and Brussels over the Northern Ireland Protocol and highlights key areas for compromise for each side.
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@JenniferMerode Indeed – the Swiss lesson for UK, as predicted by @SamuelMarcLowe in May - the Brexit negotiations will never truly end -
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Higher public debt has benefits. That fact alone is mostly absent from the European debate. It’s time to set the record straight, argue @adam_tooze and @codendahl in their latest for @CER_EU.
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The Conservative Party remains profoundly #eurosceptic. Sunak wants good relations with the EU but is wary of upsetting hard-line MPs in the European Research Group. 🆕 article by @CER_Grant .
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New policy brief 'Mrs May's emerging deal on Brexit: Not just hard, but also difficult' writes @CER_Grant #brexit
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“If ‘global Britain’ is to succeed in forums like the G20, G7 and COP26, then we can’t do it if we have bad relations with the EU. We’ll learn there’s a price to be paid for being in a grumpy relationship with our European partners.” . 🗣@CER_Grant @FT.
So. Will David Frost put EU-Uk relations in the freezer? Or will things thaw in time?. Post-#Brexit? Big Read with @GeorgeWParker @Sam1Fleming - with inputs from @CER_Grant, ex EU Commissioner Lord Hill, @AntonSpisak and others who must remain nameless.
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If Turkey is willing to ratify Finland’s NATO membership, there is little reason for Helsinki to wait for Stockholm. Article in @euronews by @HelmiPillai 🇫🇮 🇸🇪 .
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Brexit has only cost us and the worst is yet to come @TheNewEuropean. “We have had such a difficult time with investment, which has been so stagnant,” says @JohnSpringford “and we know low investment now reduces growth in the future.”.
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