Perry Lin
@perry_lin1
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Here's is a closer look at the AI/HPC opportunity and why $WULF is so well positioned. Yes, Lake Mariner, is a unicorn site and I'll spell out the reasons why. Corrections welcome.
@TeraWulfInc
@PaulBPrager
@Kerri_Langlais
@AssadJason
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The investment thesis for $WULF and the upside from here is not btc mining. If you look at it from an EH basis, it is overvalued (ask
@sebastian_ski
) but when you look at the hpc potential, it is greatly undervalued. (Cont’d)
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When your 3 biggest bags are $WULF $CORZ and $IREN, the dilemma you face is whether to reposition and a take a huge tax hit or stay long with what you have. I’m not taking the tax hit.
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Once $WULF announces a deal, they significantly catch up to $CORZ and may be worth $3-$3.5 billion compared to the fully diluted $4B $CORZ is worth. Compared to traditional datacenters at $30m per MW, there is even more upside. Once a deal gets announced, $10 is probable.
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Optics matter. $WULF team working super hard selling story to Wall St and talking to institutional investors. Stock up. $BITF puts out photos of matchsticks and has no CEO. Stock sucks.
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$WULF There is a very good chance Terawulf books $300-$400 million in hpc revenue in 2025. Their sites can be built quickly and powered quickly. Priority given to customers who can actually get allocation of Nvidia GPUs.
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Obvious op-ex pins today on the miners. $CORZ ($12), $WULF ($4.5), and $IREN ($7.5). I expect all 3 names to run higher on Monday
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@SamirTabar
$CORZ would disagree with
#3
and $WULF can quickly build greenfield on energized sites. $IREN already has hpc customers and $WULF and $CIFR have reported high interest in their sites.
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Peel back the onion on the Coreweave deal and you’ll see that 200 MW will be energized 1st half of ‘25 and 70 MW in 2nd half ‘25. Everything else is ‘26 or later. $WULF has guided 226 MW total hpc capacity for ‘25 and has another 200-250 MW of capacity beyond that. (cont’d)
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$WULF. If you are a follower, today’s news was not unexpected. Valuation seems fair.
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@penny_ether
Did you listen to $WULF B Riley fireside chat? Patrick Fleury thinks they can do better on rev/MW. Get customer to put down 30% and debt finance balance of buildout. They also have a superior site. I don’t think Wulf needs to set aside non-revenue generating MW for chilling.
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I don’t understand the fandom in $CLSK. You can just buy $CORZ for a similar mining business and get all the value of their ai deal or just buy $IREN or $BITF for pure plays at lower valuations.
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1) AI/HPC demand is real and here to stay. Sequoia says it best, we are going from hype cycle in 2024 to industrial build cycle in 2025.
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$WULF, 226 MW available for HPC in ‘25. If the demand is what everyone claims, all of this capacity will be leased. 1st year upfront payments=$400 million revenue.
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$CORZ Today’s offering allows the company to repay all their debt and release them from any covenants from the bankruptcy. This will allow them to use further debt/equity to finance any infra acquisitions which seem to be imminent.
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$IREN. I held my nose and bought some more of this stinker. I don’t think earnings report will be good but I’m in for the long game
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$CORZ $280 million operating profit, 7% cap rate equates to a $4 billion value for the leased Core Weave infra by itself.
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3) Cost matters. At 4.5 cents per kWh, the $WULF site has a considerable cost advantage over the current top 10 data center markets. 50% savings is avg.)%2C%20and%20Los%20Angeles.
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@JohnRSamuelsen
@RalstonReports
I just voted to retire Dina Titus at Town Square location in S Las Vegas.
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2) Large sites preferrable to smaller sites as AI requires more electricity for their compute. If $WULF energizes the 500 MW of capacity at LM, it would place them in the top 5 of data center companies and top 10 in overall data center markets.
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So the future looks very bright for $WULF. There are a lot of sites and companies out there that check some of the boxes but are there any that check all of them? If so, let me know who and where as I would be interested in investing.
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Two points 1) $MARA wants the Talon crypto JV with $WULF. I always thought them or Riot would be a good partner. $WULF would has full ops control and their interests are aligned. 2) 1st confirmation Amzn and Goog are interested in Lake Mariner
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Best thing they did was build Wulf Den so potential customers can see their ability to build and scale an hpc/ai facility. Pretty impressive to go from 0 to 70 MW in 6 months. This is proof of concept even the largest data centers don't have. Trad'l dc build is not the same.
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@penny_ether
$MARA-We innovate. Mining economics don’t matter.
$CLSK-We hodl S21s.
$CORZ-We are Core Squared. Married forever.
$RIOT-Best paid, best dressed, best poker players.
$WULF-We own sites, just won’t tell you where, at least not now.
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$CLSK now my 3rd largest miner position. Order filled at 11.39
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5) High water security and availability. Not only do they have water, but it is secure from drought, curtailment etc. It also has less environmental impact than say the Colorado River. Niagara Falls is a very healthy watershed! (cont.)
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@penny_ether
They really had no choice on the atm. They were hoping to pay it down with fcf but that thinking was when btc was at $70k and looked like it was going higher. Their loan was due at eoy so tapping the atm now and avoiding more interest was better than delaying the inevitable
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Patrick is the best CFO amongst the miners.
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So in summary, Lake Mariner is a 1) large scale site, with 2) cheap electricity, 3) ready to be energized immediately, 4) environmentally green and carbon free and 5) has access to secure water. In addition, the site has power and internet redundancy, and favorable weather.
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$MARA excluding btc markdown, still lost approx $50 million q2. Mgt pay themselves like Elon Musk. Worst company in the mining space.
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$APLD. Guided hpc deal for 400 MW at Ellendale with Fortune 50 hyperscaler, decade long term, secured buildout with project financing 80-90 ltv, term sheets confirmed. Technical due diligence completed, working through final lease details which are 90%+ complete. I’m a buyer.
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@OkraSF
@KevinLMak
$IREN will not have significant capacity at Childress until 2026. $CORZ specifically cited their ability to provide infra quickly as their catalyst for securing the CoreWeave deal.
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Bobby Axelrod takes a small position in $IREN, oh, I mean Stevie Cohen
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@JarronJackson4
$WULF signaled concrete plans for hpc and that they reported one of if not the lowest cash cost to mine a btc. But my opinion doesn’t matter. It was well received by the market. $IREN never has specificity around hpc. I expect share count to go up and hedging issues continue
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$TLN $WULF On the Talen earnings call, an analyst asked for comment on the future of the Nautilus JV btc mine. After a LONG pause, CEO commented that it was not a strategic asset and that they are seeking all alternatives for it with no further comment.
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4) On the way to 100% green, carbon free, sustainability - currently 91% as certified by NY ISO. Goes without saying that this is a priority for every hyerscaler.
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Genentech in biotech and Lilly in pharma come to mind for their sequencing and ai modeling needs. Then you have the integrators that will need 5 9's uptime because of govt work. Companies such as General Dynamics and Accenture fall into that. And then you have IBM and Dells.
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Liquid cooling is here to stay for many years despite MSFT efforts to cool directly on chip. Water cooling is needed to tamp down energy usage but water is increasingly scare. Terawulf has it! .
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What kind of customer can we see for $WULF? Hyperscalers come to mind but they also like to own their own infrastructure. I think a credit worthy Fortune 100 would be a good candidate. Look at Adobe. LM seems to fit their model.
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Looks like a magnet at $4 for $WULF, $10 for $CORZ and $14 for $IREN
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$CORZ Unfortunately, still a lot of dilution ahead with the unconverted warrants and the 12% interest on the debt really hurts the mining margins. I stay long but some more chop to be expected.
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I know $APLD down AH probably due to wider loss but the guidance on call around hpc deal is as bullish as you can be without a deal. 90% of the way to finalized lease with hyperscaler and project financing secured with 80-90 ltv
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@RolandsBerlin
@Agrippa_Inv
@Umbisam
@web3_eth
@kevinlhr88
@Freedom_By_40
@asp1re_1nsp1re_
@FransBakker9812
@Michael_EWpro
@benemodi
@TheKamaHsutra
The real problem is btc price. The longer it takes to go up, the more it needs to go up. It’s a terrible quandary until btc actually goes up.
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@mikealfred
it's also very bullish for Applied shareholders if you bought it in the 3's and its trading in the 5s
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@penny_ether
I also think they will announce the acquisition of more infra. Whether that’s before or after another hpc deal is tbd.
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@Agrippa_Inv
I believe $Wulf also had to account for warrants that were factored into interest expense which made it look worse than it really was. That is a one time event.
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Case in point, they released their monthly update and didn’t even syndicate to sites like Yahoo or Marketwatch. You had to go their website to find it. Wtf? This is basic stuff.
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Other thoughts, after doing some research, Texas may be going thru a data center boom but they were never the first choice of the hyperscalers. If you look at all of their large buildouts, its Columbus OH, Iowa, Illinois, Wyoming, Oregon, Wisconsin, Indiana, MO. Wonder why?
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@ronrule
You are comparing apples to oranges. SS is not an investment. It is a guaranteed insurance product. Compare it to an annuity, not an investment.
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6) Immediately availability. 70 MW by Q1 and up to 226 MW by end of 2025. Power today is more valuable than it will be in 2 years as all of the hyperscalers have their own greenfield sites coming online. (Cont.)
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PSA but NFA. If you own shares in volatile stocks like btc miners, consider buying otm puts and turning your position into a synthetic call. I believe downside protection is imperative no matter how bullish you are and I spend 2% of the underlying in every position I hold.
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Everybody is calling Trump a liar and that may be true but I’m also pretty sure Biden does not have a 6 handicap
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@matthughes13
You mist have a very short time frame. I own both and will hold until $CORZ is $60 and $WULF is $30
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@Charge_Stack
@TeraWulfInc
@Elaineucf
Would you please stop contributing to SG&A and refrain from swag consumption?
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@mikealfred
Sad part is, there arent that many of these retail holders you speak of. Nobody is in it. We are early.
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@bazooooka
@Charge_Stack
@McnallieM
@cantorfitzgerld
@TeraWulfInc
$WULF will have 20 MW ready by end of 24 and 50 MW additional by middle of 25. That’s not insignificant.
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@Invst_Informant
They announced an atm equal or greater than their market cap. Nobody has done that and their shares are currently trading at severely depressed levels prior to the announcement. Sell low and sell even more lower is not a great strategy.
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@BKnight221
$WULF was trading in the $4.60s all day so I wouldnt say they pumped it and $CORZ had been showing incredible strength as of late.
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So Taylor Swift just convinced more black men to vote for Trump and more undecided pro-choice women to vote for Kamala. Seems like a net positive for Trump when you do the math.
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@CK_Cryptoklepto
Still think $WULF is going to 0 and be unable to pay their debt? You were banging that drum for a long time.
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@RaviBhalla
Disappointed you lost. I was hoping to ship you off to Washington. Now, Hoboken is again stuck with a corrupt mayor who is only out for himself.
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@mikealfred
@penny_ether
But if the startup company has a huge IPO q1 and that stock runs up, is that a catalyst for $CORZ and at what point would you no longer call a $20 billion Coreweave a startup?
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@MortensenBach
@CryptoKChicago
Under the radar news but $wulf will be providing an updateb for their post halving strategy tomorrow
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@mikealfred
@CryptoChrisiz
If you still have dry powder to buy, then you’re not invested enough in btc
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@aanjanmidha
@danroberts0101
@Umbisam
Yes, hedging error but it is more than that. It is better to not have to hedge at all and it speaks to the vulnerability of summers in Texas.
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@cryptomiami1
@icyopro23
@PaulBPrager
That’s what Beowulf does. They went into btc mining because running a utility and doing energy arb was no longer profitable. They have to find creative ways to monetize.
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@Umbisam
The problem of the hedging is not only an execution issue but a site and location issue. All we here from mgt is how great their sites are. Well, they just got repriced because the need to hedge will not go away in Texas and this risk will always exist.
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@penny_ether
Great analysis but I am not willing to concede that $CORZ will not add hash. The Block deal and any upside announcement will easily get them to 30-40 EH in ‘25.
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@henryolsenEPPC
seems like a lot of dem mail still to come in Clark County. How much of a rural firewall does Laxalt need?
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@RetirementRight
@mikealfred
Black Swan will do fine with his gold position. It will just massively underperform btc
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@Rex_Finance
@Lacabra_Capital
Coreweave at IPO would immediately become a well capitalized large cap stock immediately
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@theBTCMiningGuy
@seancbuckley
@Charge_Stack
@ulassbs
@tablescraps42
@Adrian_R_Morris
@mikealfred
It’s so ridiculous it does not deserve a response.
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@senorbob6969
@TeraWulfInc
@Core_Scientific
It’s not. Fully diluted, the $CORZ is twice the market cap as $WULF
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$MARA is right where they are comfortable. A sub-$20 stable coin. Carry on, nothing to see here.
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@penny_ether
You’re the perfect person to ask, fully diluted- $CORZ and $CLSK have the same market cap and they mine about the same amount of btc. So is $CORZ severely undervalued or is $CLSK severely overvalued?
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