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@Agrippa_Inv
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Pinned Tweet
$IREN Investment Case - a 30x in the making 📈
I recently started a position in the
#BTC
miner & AI cloud hosting company $IREN - acquiring 27.5k shares at a price per share of ~$4.8.
In this post I explain why I'm so bullish on this rapidly growing company.
23
53
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$CLSK - my next 10-15x investment 📈
I recently took profits on the vast majority (~90%) of my $hims position and moved these funds into
#BTC
& $CLSK.
In this thread I’ll go into why I sold $hims for $CLSK & lay out my investment case for this stock.
22
47
452
Why I’m balls deep into a
#BTC
mining stock ( $CLSK ) BEFORE the upcoming halving event. 💰🎯
Narrative: $BTC miners are about to lose half of their revenue, therefore stay away from these stocks for a while. ❌
My POV: 👇
→ The $BTC halving will lead to less efficient miners
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Just went all in $IREN 💥 Dropped $700k to acquire 66k additional shares.
Total shares: 116k
$IREN is easy money down here. 📈
Just sold:
- 1/3 of my $IREN position
- 100% of my $CLSK position
- 100% of my $TSLA position
$BTC dumping that hard, will be a negative drag on miners over the coming trading days. Expecting a correction, followed by a swift recovery.
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11
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I see lots of investors getting nervous about $CLSK's recent price action...
I'm here to remind you that $CLSK is still the
#BTC
miner with the highest EH/s growth YTD - a staggering 78%. 💥
No stock goes up in a straight line, $CLSK's time will come very soon. 📈
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#BTC
Miner Targets vs. Reality ✅ /❌
$BTC miners have a poor reputation for hitting their hash rate targets, and for good reason....
In 2022, all miners missed their hash rate targets, with the exception of $CLSK, who not only met their target - but also over-delivered on it.
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@DocBorelli
@SharpFootball
@elonmusk
Clear inside job. Parts of Trump’s secret service team are compromised
20
14
210
$IREN Market Update 👇
I see more & more $IREN bulls feeling confused, frustrated, and scared of $IREN's recent price action.
$IREN has been crushing it lately with the business updates, $BTC is close to making new all time highs, yet $IREN is down ~40% over the past month -
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198
Just bought an additional 3500 shares of $CLSK ✅
Total shares: 18800
Cost basis: $16.60
$CLSK is easy money at these prices 📈
22
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194
Should $IREN start HODLing $BTC?
In this post I’ll lay out my view on “Hodling” & if $IREN should pivot their "No HODL Stance". 🤔
Most people have a misconception of what “hodling” actually means. Hodling, an abbreviation of the word “holding”, refers to holding $BTC over the
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July Portfolio Update: ~70% YTD
Portfolio Performance:
Portfolio Composition:
Assets / Shares:
UPDATES 💡
Over the past month I made quite a lot of changes to my portfolio:
- Sold all $TSLA shares at ~$250
- Sold all $CLSK shares at ~$16
- Went "all-in" $IREN
I have taken
29
20
168
$IREN's Q1 results - Deep Dive ⛏️
In this thread I’ll give my 2 cents on $IREN's recent Q1 earnings (reported as Q3).
I will cover:
👉 Mining Costs 💸
👉 EH/s Expansion Plans 📈
👉 AI Developments 🤖
👉 $500 mill ATM & new financing options 🏷
👉 New Price Target 🎯
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21
164
$IREN & Morgan Stanley: A Strategic Partnership for Growth 📈
In this post, I'll break down what the recent
@MorganStanley
appointment means for $IREN.
$IREN is looking to monetize their substantial land & power portfolio, which exceeds 3000 MW. The management team has
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22
148
This really puts $IREN's >3000 MW portfolio into perspective....
$TSLA one of the largest tech companies in the world is aiming for >500 MW of energized AI hardware over the next ~1.5 years.
$IREN will be at 510 MW >THIS< year! 💥
Sure... Most of it is going to be used for
Sizing for ~130MW of power & cooling this year, but will increase to >500MW over next 18 months or so.
Aiming for about half Tesla AI hardware, half Nvidia/other.
Play to win or don’t play at all.
2K
2K
20K
4
28
145
Just purchased 5.5k additional shares of $CLSK ✅
Total shares: 24.3k
$CLSK at these prices is like picking up money off the street 💰 just too easy...
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3
141
Why $hims is going to smash their 2025 guidance 💥
In this post I’ll explain why $hims will smash its 2025 revenue guidance of $1.2b. To argue my point, I’ll share some insights released in the most recent earnings call.
Currently, $hims is making $227 million in revenue per
9
21
139
Just sold:
- 1/3 of my $IREN position
- 100% of my $CLSK position
- 100% of my $TSLA position
$BTC dumping that hard, will be a negative drag on miners over the coming trading days. Expecting a correction, followed by a swift recovery.
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June Portfolio Update: ~50% YTD
* Portfolio values per month are recorded within the 1. week of the month.
Updates 💡
Over the past month I made quite a lot of changes to my portfolio:
- Started a position in $IREN
- Sold ALL $MSTR to acquire more $IREN
- Sold 1 $BTC to
22
9
121
$Hims Base Case in 10 years = 27.6x 📈
Assumptions:
👉 Hims grows at a 10y CAGR of 20% (6.2x of current rev)
👉 Gross Margin decline to 75% from 83% (now)
👉 CAC goes down by 20%
👉 YoY Churn goes down from ~31.5% (now) to 25%
👉 Basic share count dilution is going to total 15%
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$IREN CEO
@danroberts0101
being "super confident" that they'll AT LEAST hit their 30 EH/s target for 2024.
Interview by:
@McnallieM
&
@cazenove_uk
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18
117
Sold another $BTC today & bought an additional 3.7k shares of $CLSK at $16.1 ✅
Total $CLSK bag: 28k shares
Sure, the stock could go lower but in German we say “schau einem geschenkten Gaul nicht ins Maul” 🙃
Meaning: don't look a gifted horse in the mouth 🐴 (be grateful).
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119
$IREN is on an absolute tear, in terms of hash rate growth 🔥
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116
The 2024
#BTC
halving is going to be remembered as an epic "BUY the rumour, SELL the news event" for $BTC mining firms, such as $CLSK (...just in reverse). 💥
I believe the 'negative' impact of this halving event on $BTC miners is already priced in. ✅
👉 It's not as if the
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How MedMatch will help define the MOAT of $hims 🏰
Many critics point to $hims ' lack of moat and non-existent competitive differentiation. In this post, I highlight $hims ' current value proposition & explain how their new AI initiative “MedMatch” will cement the company’s
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$Hims announced to be GAAP profitable as early as Q4 2023 or H1 2024! 📈
What growth company is growing >9% QoQ, announced GAAP profitability in the near term, share buy backs, 83% gross margins, all while trading at a PS of 1.6? ….
4
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95
Fantastic Q3 results for $Hims! 📈
My Key Takeaways are:
- Impressive margins improvements ✅
- Stabilising QoQ revenue growth ✅
- Reaccelerating subscriber growth ✅
- Amazing Q4 guidance 💥
They reduced prices of up to 20-30% for certain subscriptions & still increased
4
14
91
Amazing Quarter by $hims 🔥
Hitting profitability for the 1. time, while being such a young company & growing at this pace is remarkable!
While their top-line came in a bit shallow (still beating guidance but I expected a bigger beat), their Q1 revenue guidance is stellar -
Big day at $HIMS - we announced our first quarter of net income profitability and we expect to pass $1B in revenue in 2024.
We have 1.5M+ subscribers on the platform up 48% YoY.
Revenue increased 65% YoY to $872M.
But it’s really just the beginning for us.
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I would only invest in
#BTC
miners with a consistent track record of growing their market share. 📈
Clear Winners 🏆: $CLSK / $MARA / $WULF
Miners:
$CLSK $MARA $RIOT $BITF $CIFR $WULF $IREN $HUT $HIVE $CORZ
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$Hims CAC / LTV / Churn
In this detailed thread I will calculate each of these 3 metrics using publicly available data published by $hims. This thread consists of 3 sections: Calculations (3 parts), Summary, and Analysis. Enjoy ✌️
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87
Just trimmed ~1/3 of my $IREN position at $14.6 ✅
Looking to re-purchase everything + more at lower levels (10-12$).
$IREN is still relatively cheap compared to companies such as $CLSK, however, it pulled a 3x in less than 1 month - nothing goes up in a straight line forever.
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2
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@gary_pallett
Very true. I totally agree with you…. $MARA doesn’t deserve much of a valuation premium. The only thing going for them is their rate of growth. But growth doesn’t mean much of you are just growing your losses 😂
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0
15
$IREN's July Report - Breakdown 💡
In this thread I’ll cover:
👉 Hash Rate Growth
👉 $BTC Production
👉 AI Cloud Hosting Progress
👉 Explosion in Energy Costs
$IREN Jul-24 Update
- 222
#BTC
mined, $13.6m rev
- 10.5 EH/s installed (Aug 5)
- 20 EH/s in 3Q, 30 EH/s in 4Q
- 816 NVIDIA H100 GPUs, $1.3m rev
- Servicing multiple customers
- Childress power capacity increased to 750MW
-
@MorganStanley
appointed financial advisor
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274
10
11
85
$Hims Mega Article 📝
I just published a very comprehensive article on $Hims, covering the company from A-Z (link below) 👇
In the making of this article I went through every EC Transcript, News, and interviews related to Hims & Hers. After digging this deep, I for one got even
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Will $IREN be the first major $BTC miner to pay out dividends? 🤔
$IREN CEO
@danroberts0101
talking about the possibility of distributing cash flow, generated via $BTC sales, back to shareholders.
Interview by:
@McnallieM
&
@cazenove_uk
10
5
83
$HIMS Reviews & App Store ranking
There is reason to believe that Q3 2023 will be a blow-out quarter for $hims. This detailed thread consists of 3 parts:
- Volume Increase of Reviews
- App Store Performance
- Negative reviews
9
12
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$CLSK Metrics & Price Target 📈 (2/2)
Looking at $CLSK ‘s production trajectory, I estimate their $BTC holdings to reach at least 10,000 $BTC by the end of 2024. However, accounting for potential dilution of ~25%, its $BTC per share could do a ~1.9x increase.
Calculation:
👉
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11
75
Just bought 4000 additional shares of $hims.
Total share count: 40,000 ✅
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1
73
@LindblomRalph
@gary_pallett
I didn’t want to start nitpicking at individual figures. Every other miner has certain items that are one offs. The $13 million you highlighted are a drop in a bucket in relation to $MARA ‘s total expenses of $278 mill. Excluding this cost would still result in a mining cost of
1
0
10
Solid break-out and +10% move for $hims today 📈
It amazes me how most Wall Street analysts still expect $hims to have negative GAAP earnings in 2024. Hims' CFO Yemi Okupe made it very clear that the company could be profitable as early as Q4 2023 and surely by H1 2024.
With a
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8
70
@IREN_Ltd
@MorganStanley
On track to becoming one of the largest $BTC miners 💪🏼🔥Very solid monthly growth in the AI cloud service segment. Congrats to the $IREN team! 👏
5
2
66
Repurchased all $IREN shares at a relatively small profit (~$10k). I'm not liking the current set-up. $IREN is looking too strong... looking like it wants to go another leg higher.
Could be wrong, but my conviction in the initial "sell set-up" waned.
Just trimmed ~1/3 of my $IREN position at $14.6 ✅
Looking to re-purchase everything + more at lower levels (10-12$).
$IREN is still relatively cheap compared to companies such as $CLSK, however, it pulled a 3x in less than 1 month - nothing goes up in a straight line forever.
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2
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9
4
66
First Bank of America’s endeavour list, now TD Cowen? 👀
$Hims seems to be getting some well deserves recognition from WS as of late…
Now, Jonna Kim (the TD Cowen analyst) doesn’t really have the best track record 😂 But it’s still nice to see her pick $hims as one of her top
3
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60
@penny_ether
The way depreciation is calculated indeed varies from company to company. But eventually, every company has to mark up / mark down the value of their assets to reflect the reality.
This post is merely a snapshot of Q1 $BTC mining costs & mining profits. If a miner falsely
1
0
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Price Target 🎯
$IREN is insanely cheap!
The stock has a market cap of only $670 million while holding $300 million in cash + over $300 million in physical and long-term assets, while holding 0 debt.
$IREN is basically a "free" stock....
While the stock is currently trading
15
4
62
$Hims FREE Spreadsheet ✅
→←
For anyone wondering, how I create these fancy charts - I copied all major financial data from $hims' financial statements, which allows me to visually represent all types of of metrics.
I want other $hims investors to be
13
8
58
$Hims App & Website Flaws 👎 ❌
This post is specifically directed to
@AndrewDudum
,
@hollandbaird
,
@DanBatten
and the rest of the
@wearehims
Team.
In this thread I will highlight 3 flaws that should be rectified ASAP as they could undermine the user experience & lead to great
7
2
56
$CLSK & $MARA are clearly ahead of the pack 👑
#BTC
miners that are not consistently growing their mining figures will get smoked post halving 💨
$CLSK $MARA $RIOT $BITF $CIFR $WULF $IREN $HUT $HIVE $CORZ
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5
56
Price Targets 🎯
Using these new insights, I developed 3 price targets for the year 2025: a Bull Case (very optimistic), a Base Case (balanced), and a Bear Case (pessimistic).
👉 Bear Case: $19
Assumptions:
→ EH/s target of 40 EH/s by H1 2024 NOT met (averaging 35 EH/s for
16
9
55
Is $CLSK about to top $MARA & $CORZ in operating hash rate? 🤔
Imo, it’s just a question of time⏱
$CLSK recently exercised their options to acquire an additional 100k Bitmain S21 Pro miners - adding 23.4 EH/s to their fleet over the coming ~8-10 months.
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4
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Debunking
@sprucepointcap
's newest $hims short attack (they blocked me):
👉 Their Claim: CAC is becoming a major problem for $hims --> this proves their bear thesis right. 👈
However, they completely ignore that Operating Expenses in relation to Revenue stayed flat QoQ (and
11
13
55
Just sold some $TLT to buy an additional 3000 shares of $Hims ✅
Total share count: 34,000
I’m as confident in $hims as ever!
7
1
52
Just added 7.5k shares to my $IREN position, now totalling 35k shares ✅
Today earnings day 👀
6
1
51
Bought an additional 2000 shares of $hims ✅
Had to let go of some “cheap” $enph.
Total $Hims shares: 36,000
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1
49
Analysis 🤔
Under any regular business circumstances, these metrics are very solid. They demonstrate $hims’ ability to effectively turn marketing costs into future monetary value. Yes, the company has high churn over the first year, however, that levels off very quickly.
Their
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5
48
I'm currently working on a full breakdown of the $hims bear post (linked below) that was recently posted on LinkedIn & got quite a bit of traction from uneducated retail.
As I said previously, this clown has no idea on how to interpret financial data - so I will do it for him.
9
1
47
$Hims - Revenue Growth Slowdown 🤔
There is a lot of confusion about $hims revenue growth slowing down.
Yes, YoY growth is slowing down at 'only' 56.5% - but that's because of the growth slowdown of PAST quarters. Q3 QoQ revenue growth is flat / slightly up at 9.04%.
I'm
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7
47
@KentEkasak
I think a 30% profit margin at a $100k $BTC price.l is realistic. That would imply an “all-in” cost of $70k per mined $BTC, which I believe $IREN will manage to achieve with scale.
And yes, margins are correlated with $BTC prices. Costs to mine $BTC pretty much stay the same,
1
0
2
@Charge_Stack
$RIOT might be the worst managed $BTC miner right now. Absolute disgrace to the industry.
4
0
46
$Hims Myth Busting
#1
I see a lot of retail investors still complaining about high marketing costs, some of them even try to make the point that marketing costs are out growing revenue - which is simply NOT true ❌
Check out the yellow line 👇
Marketing as % of revenue stayed
1
8
46
@Charge_Stack
@IREN_Ltd
At least mention that I made this chart, no? 🙃
Or make a quoted retweet of the original post. Downloading it & reposting it as if it was yours is pretty weak…
Do I really need adding water marks on the stuff I put out?
4
0
45
Fantastic Article! Couldn’t have said it any better 👏
Every $Hims investor should have a look at it - it’s excellent!
@riyadosofian
made the case for a $28 price target, using very conservative estimations.
Soon I will make another “mega post” about my 2030 price targets.
My new $HIMS article is finally out!
Here, I address the company’s Q4 results, CAC, guidance, valuation, and more.
This one took a while to write so if you could do me a favor, please give this post a like and retweet :)
Enjoy!
7
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0
3
44
$CLSK Metrics & Price Target 📈 (1/2)
In this part I'll explain my rationale for a price target of $200-250$ over the next 8-12 months (~10x increase from current prices).
Imo, the best way to value a $BTC miner is in their ability to grow its $BTC per share.
👉 Bitcoin
1
7
41
Yesterday I sold all my smaller positions and consolidated my portfolio into these 5 holdings:
$Hims: 28000 shares
$Tsla: 1221 shares
$Enph: 380 shares
$IDTL ( $TLT clone): 24255 shares
$BTC: 1
10
3
40
@RiotPlatforms
Yikes… Whole executive team should get fired. $RIOT needs a total clean up. This is abysmal 🚮
1
0
41
@hexahasher
@invest_answers
Also
@invest_answers
said that $IREN ’s future hash rate is anywhere between 30 and 40 EH/s. He said estimates are all over the place & that “some people say 30, others say 40 EH/s.
How about just use the guidance of management, like he does with all other miners.
I’m sure he
5
2
40
Sold 1 $BTC yesterday. Used that capital to buy 50 shares of $MSTR today.
$MSTR did an excellent job in growing its $BTC per share over the past years, thus increasing value for shareholders.
It's a great leveraged play on
#BTC
📈
Easy money 💸
1
1
40
Just bought another ~1500 shares of $hims ✅
Total share count: 23501
10
0
40
@MarathonDH
$MARA’s market cap is currently ~5x the value of their $BTC.
$MSTR’s is less than ~2x.
Given $MARA’s unprofitability in mining $BTC + frequently diluting share holders to just purchase $BTC at spot price - their market cap to $BTC ratio seems very OVER VALUED.
6
0
39
Explosion in Energy Costs
$IREN had an average cost per $BTC of $61.7k - an increase of over 56% MoM.
$IREN's management attributes the strong increase in energy costs in July primarily to higher energy hedge pricing at their Childress site during the summer month.
6
2
41
All this FUD about "Wall Street didn't like the $hims Q2 results" is such bs 😂
Here are the receipts 👇
Today:
Notice a trend? Retail ownership continues to slide while Institutions are picking up those shares 🙃
... retail always fumbling the bag, nothing new 🥱
8
5
36
@HuntersLaptop80
@lporiginalg
I also pressed no by accident🥲 I bet most that pressed “No” did lmao
1
0
35
I just bought 3000 additional shares of $hims & 34 additional shares of $TSLA ✅
$Hims total shares: 31,000
$TSLA total shares: 1,255
Since I was at full port already, I had to liquidate some of my $TLT ( $IDTL ) position to facilitate these transactions.
8
1
36
@BTCStocksInvest
$IREN was the only miner that under promised, over delivered in 2023. They had a target of 5.5 EH/s & achieved 5.6 EH/s. $MARA and $CLSK also scored very well. $CLSK was just 1 month late on last years target, while being the only miner to over deliver in 2022.
$CIFR, on the
5
0
37
$IREN's DNA 🧬
$IREN positions itself as a data center business specialized in power-dense computing. Although it primarily mines $BTC, it recently got into AI cloud hosting.
On the AI business, $IREN differentiates itself by offering custom designed solutions for specific
3
3
35
$CLSK - Investment Case ✅
As I previously stated, $CLSK is arguably the best publicly traded mining company. Investing in $CLSK is a leveraged ‘play’ on $BTC itself.
In the following parts I will lay out why I believe this stock is set to do a ~10x over the coming 9 months.
2
1
34
Every $hims investor should listen to this new podcast interview with
@AndrewDudum
👇
...Lot's of gems in there 💎 $Hims is going to be a behemoth within the tele-health market.
2
1
35
I just bought another 4000 shares of $Hims, bringing my total to 20627 shares.
I'm very content about management's execution, the more I study this business - the more bullish I get. Can't wait for the EC on August 7. 🫣
5
0
34
Explosive hash rate growth 📈
$IREN is showing very impressive growth lately, growing its hash rate by 16% QoQ and almost 50% YTD - from 5.6 EH/s (January) to 8.2 EH/s (April).
In their latest mining update posted on May 6, $IREN announced to be already at 9.4 EH/s & assured
3
3
30
@temerson102
Why $hims has a 'low' PS of 'only' 2:
- SPAC hate
- Tele-health hate
- Misunderstood business model
- High marketing to rev ratio
- Relatively high SBC
- Continuous insider selling (bad for investor moral)
SPAC + Tele health hate is temporary and is primarily a causation of
4
6
30
EH/s Expansion Plans 📈
$IREN has significantly surpassed my expectations with its forward-looking guidance.
Management increased their H2 2024 hash rate guidance from 20 EH/s to now 30 EH/s - a staggering 50% increase. Additionally, they set a target of 40 EH/s by H1 2025.
3
8
31
→ $HIMS fair PS ←
To determine a fair PS for $hims, we will have to apply the factors that could influence it’s PS:
👉Profit Margins → 81% gross margins
👉Revenue growth → 83% yoy - last 14 quarters have had well over 70% yoy growth
👉Debt → 0
👉Runway (Cash Flow) →
1
3
30
@AndrewDudum
Where were these guys when $hims was at $6 😂 Wall street & financial news are always late to the party 🤷🏻♂️
3
1
29
👉 Q2 $HIMS / Financial deep dive 👈
Profitability of $hims continues to improve ✅
Revenue increases by 83% yoy ✅
Marketing costs as % of Revenue slightly increased (marginally), while non-marketing operating costs (R&D, G&A, support) stayed flat - BUT gross expenses as % of
5
7
30
$CLSK with an unprecedented HODL growth over the past 1 year 📈
Notice how $CLSK was the only mining firm that strategically reduced their $BTC holdings at the top of the 2021 bull market - reinvesting these funds into growth 🤌
$CLSK $MARA $RIOT $BITF $CIFR $HUT $HIVE $CORZ
3
2
30
@AndrewDudum
@hollandbaird
@DanBatten
@wearehims
Awesome! Great to see that you are on top of this 🙂💯
1
0
30
$Hims Negative Reviews (2/2)
It’s also worthwhile pointing out that
@wearehims
responds to ALL of their negative Trustpilot reviews in a timely manner.
Fun Fact: In June & July of this year, $hims replied to ALL previous negative reviews that haven't been replied to - even
5
0
27
$Hims' Revenue growth exceeding Subscriber growth is EXACTLY what you want to see as a shareholder. 💯
This means $hims is successfully upselling / cross - selling their services & makes MORE revenue per customer. ✅
Impressively, they achieved this while lowering prices 📉
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Nah these takes are getting too ridiculous 😂 The Dunning-Kruger effect is strong in this one.
Before you read this post, check out the post I’m quote-retweeting. 👇
The side effects of finasteride (for hair loss) are well known, yet happen incredibly rare. You can’t treat
Hims is a diabolical business.
They sell the idea of better sex appeal in a pill (hair growth, better erections, lasting longer)
These drugs then leave men with flatlined androgens and no sex drive
Then Hims is right there to sell them anti-depressants & hormone treatment
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$Hims Valuation (Detailed Thread) 🧵
To properly value $hims we first have to decide upon a valuation method. Undoubtedly, one of the best valuation methods to use is the PS (Price / Sales) ratio. Don’t let yourself get fooled by the simplicity of the PS metric, there are many
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