
pennyether
@penny_ether
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Public BTC Miner analysis, like no one else. Won't take refuge in the false security of consensus (except BTC). Critical thinker, happily accept corrections.
Joined September 2021
$BTBT / $WYFI - Can somebody explain to me how/why $BTBT has no debt, $500m of ETH, $790m of $WYFI -- a combined $4/sh, but trades at $3.25? Why the HoldCo discount? Is it possible that they could do a cross buyback swap to fix this arb?
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$BTDR / Bitmain: Circling back on this and tying it to my latest article about hashrate growth: In 2026, I project around 500 EH/s to be added. That's about 4.7 GWs of capacity swapped or added. At $1,050/KWH cost (just a guess), that'd be around $5b of cash spent on ASICs. In
$BTDR / ASICs - Bitmain has been the NVDA of BTC Mining, and it's been quite lucrative; they literally manufacture money printing machines that will *always* provide operating profit to the buyer. Just how valuable is gaining market share? In this post I explore some insights
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We brought back dire wolves. Which species are we reviving next? Follow for updates on our progress.
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BTW.. you can hire me as a consultant to do similar studies or obtain more data.
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Here we see how pricing "bottoms out" during bearish conditions. As miners make less revenue, the prices of ASICs drops.. but kind of has a floor: And here we see how ROI pricing works (blue line). Blue line = above chart's green line divided by red line. (FWIW: I'm using an
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$BTDR / ASICs - Bitmain has been the NVDA of BTC Mining, and it's been quite lucrative; they literally manufacture money printing machines that will *always* provide operating profit to the buyer. Just how valuable is gaining market share? In this post I explore some insights
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Rushed my last post.. the charts are off. I'll post again sometime soon.
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$BTDR - Sealminer A3 and A3 Pro website now up. A3 is 14 J/TH, Pro is 12.5 J/TH. Air cooled. BTDR matching/besting the S21 XP, and getting close to Bitmain's S23 (11 J/TH), which allegedly starts shipping in January. Pre-order / pricing for the A3 is still "stay tuned". The A3
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Hey $IREN nerds... assuming they tapped the ATM and raised funds, what would be the next milestone they announce as fully funded? Just thinking ahead to the next monthly update :) @TheKamaHsutra @litigious_dulce @FransBakker9812 @Umbisam
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$MSTR - Testing out a new weekly format. Let me know your thoughts. Currently at 1.434x mNAV, via ATM, they need to sell 21,340 BTC ($2.4b*) of stock to generate 1% BTC Yield. They need to sell 519,689 BTC ($59.2b*) of stock to generate 19.75% BTC Yield (mid-way point), or 1.5m
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$BITF - Hitting $2.80 (+24%) in overnight trading. Not a ton of volume, but still quite interesting.
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@KevinLMak Disclaimer: I followed him into $SPHR about a year ago, so maybe I'm talking my book too 🤷♂️
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$SPHR - First and foremost, I respect @KevinLMak immensely for being a pro bono disseminator of general market knowledge. So, when he dives deep into a specific company, likely his highest conviction play, it's probably not just "talking his book". Worth a read.
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$BTDR - I wrote up something about it yesterday, but never posted it. The tldr is that they have "an embarrassment of riches" and if you want something maximally speculative on mining/HPC colocation/CSP, then they are impossible to ignore. Below is the draft. It's incomplete, as
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An example of Jevin's paradox: I wanted to know how many shares are needed to delta hedge $IREN's capped calls, for any given share price, date, and IV. Would be nice to have IV and time be interactive (so I could infer vanna and charm, respectively). No sane PM would ask a dev
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Anything with MW's and a narrative of selling them is pumping hard... but I'd like to think some of the past few sessions of $BITF outperformance is a bit of "catch up" as predicted. Lucky, or right, I'll take the profits. My exposure to mining/HPC is lessening by the day. At
$BITF - I had hundreds of $1C for Jan, waiting for the $RIOT overhang to be done with.. but this buyback announcement is just as good. Trimmed. Most miners are back to where they were 6 months ago, which would put $BITF at around $1.60.
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Hashrate adjusted up to 973 EH/s @ $54 hashprice. Looking back at other periods that had a similar average hashprice (+/- $1), we have these compounded annual growth rates.. pretty solidly >40%: June 29, 2025 (65 days ago, 837 EH/s): CAGR ≈ 132.9% annualized May 30, 2025 (95
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