John Otter
@otter401
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Wood Partners is one of California's and the country's largest institutional, large project apartment developers. The senior guys are friends of mine.
Today they closed of all of their CA operations. The entire CA staff has been let go. Everybody.
They and their partners
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This is one of the reasons why, in spite of our politicians both in LA and throughout the state talking about all the housing that they're going to build, hardly any housing will actually get built.
@CSElmendorf
focuses below on the intellectually fraudulent site
L.A. housing element rezone is a big test for
@California_HCD
.
Public discussion has focused on city's decision to "preserve" its SFH zones, but the bigger prob is a mess of new, cost-elevating rules, obscured by hand-waiving about sites probability of development.
🧵/19.
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51% chance that all apartment production in CA comes to an end.
Not being overly dramatic. There was a reason Costa-Hawkins was passed by the CA Legislature in the first place.
Costa-Hawkins was passed because local rent control ordinances in place at the time had killed CA
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I'm a large scale CA based apartment developer active in SoCal and NoCal. We also have offices in TX and FL. So we understand and see the landscape of affordable housing policies as implemented in various states.
TX and FL have workforce/missing middle housing programs. CA
@joffemd
Sure, and I strongly agree we need to remove barriers to housing construction in California. But even if we removed every development barrier tomorrow, the cost to make development pencil would result in rents to high for many Bay Area residents. Hence the need for a bond...
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A Monday afternoon reminder that California's 50 year housing production failure and the associated most-expensive-in-the-country housing cost increases have resulted in the most racist outcome in our highly "Progressive" state:
LA: Black population in 1970 - 17.9% & 2020 -
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Further to my thread below, this is case in point. It's fantastic that 100% affordable projects are exempted from CEQA. But why just 100% affordable projects? Do they have less of an environmental impact than inclusionary projects? Or 100% market rate projects? We need...
State Assembly passed my housing bill, which will exempt 100% affordable housing projects from the California Environmental Quality Act & makes it significantly easier for cities, counties, & builders to build housing for those experiencing homelessness & struggling families.
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The only thing in my life I ever quit was being an apt developer in SF.
@aaronpeskin
is the most proximate reason for that. In my 40 yrs doing this all across the country, I consider him to be the most evil politician I ever dealt with. So not much about him would shock me.
Due to numerous complaints by Peskin’s neighborhood group The Telegraph Hill Dwellers against the house at 224 Filbert Street, the buyers picked it up for $800,000 — around half of what Trafton paid just two years prior. Who were the new owners of 224 Filbert Street? Peskin’s
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@CSElmendorf
@cayimby
@AaronGuhreen
@SaMoForward
@JalbyMD
@California_HCD
@Scott_Wiener
@ShaneDPhillips
@michaeldlane
As one of Cali's largest apartment developers, I've been tweeting recently to raise awareness that the near exclusive focus on HE plans and State Housing (cont)
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@MattBinder
Typical "journalist". Distract from the real issue.
Matt seems highly concerned with Jack Dorsey, but is apparently A-ok with Twitter's behavior in censoring the HB laptop story.
I'd think this would be the opposite prioritization of concerns by an actual journalist.
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Ironically (not lol), states that have allowed housing to be built as an instrument of profit have the most affordable housing today and states that have attempted to decouple housing from profits have the least affordable housing.
The root of the problem is that housing is treated as an instrument of profit. The sole solution is to decouple housing from profit and make it a human right.
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Social Housing folks:
Amongst all the discussion, I've never seen pro forma numbers posted by anyone. Does it exist?
1. Development budget: what are the sources and uses of funds? Where does the money come from?
2. Operations: I've seen folks note the that the numbers..
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The housing killing "input cost" that has most increased is in the form of massive transfer tax increases adopted by LA and SM. Has the effect of reducing investor profits in new housing projects by 50%. Deals that barely penciled before don’t pencil at all in LA and SM anymore.
The President has released a very solid national housing plan to increase the supply of housing. The housing shortage, while most acute in California, is national. It’s harming middle & working class people, increasing homelessness & harming the economy. Thank you, Mr. President.
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"Our local leaders would be well served by easing regulations and allowing builders to build."
And by exempting new rental projects from Measures ULA (LA) and GS (Santa Monica). This is the straw that has finally broken the camel's back.
No individual apartment unit sells for
Our local elected officials’ approach to addressing the homeless crisis is failing. Study after study reinforces what we already know—in order to keep people off the streets, California must increase our housing supply. Stable housing combined with mental health and addiction
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There is a large body of discussion that claims urban CA cities don't need more market rate housing, and instead only affordable housing should be built.
Presented below is CA's affordable housing model, costing $1MM per affordable unit.
Is this the solution to CA's housing
This project in Santa Monica is expected to cost more than $1 million per affordable housing unit... on free city-owned land
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in LA, and all large apartment projects capitalized by institutional investors, are now being put on the shelf until such time as rents rise by hundreds of dollars/mo. Yes, the consequence of LAs transfer tax is that new projects will not start until developers feel we can (cont)
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@moseskagan
"...a contingency-fee attorney *will* convince the HOA to sue the developer..."
Specifically the atty will tell the HOA board that they have a duty to perform a construction defect review in 9th year, and if they don't then they as board members could be personally liable for
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To build a typical apt project, developers need investors. The largest investors by far are pension plans such as CalPERS and Cal/STRS. These pension plans put up most of the money. And....they take most of profits.
So when I talk about the fact that LA's transfer tax (cont)
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more housing-killing ordinances and/or ballot measures out of local cities in California in the coming months. Unless it’s stopped at the state level...
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Happy Sunday.
A reminder that the City of LA's RHNA obligation this cycle is 57,080 units per year every year until 2029.
Last year LA started 8,000 units.
And as the city has become ever more hostile to apartment development (I see u Measure ULA), it'll be hard to hold to
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With more reports coming in my initial message seems to have been exaggerated as to the timing. My apologies for this.
Bottom line doesn't change. Wood Partners is leaving the state. They are the 4th largest apartment developer in the U.S. It's telling that they decided to
Wood Partners is one of California's and the country's largest institutional, large project apartment developers. The senior guys are friends of mine.
Today they closed of all of their CA operations. The entire CA staff has been let go. Everybody.
They and their partners
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reduces profits by 25%, it's mostly the institutional investors (CalPERS/CalSTRS) profits that are being eroded. And pension plans like CalPERS/STRS don't like reduced profits. CalPERS/STRS have minimum IRR hurdles they need to achieve in order to invest in a project.
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"greedy developer" comments that are sure to come, but which are really beside the point. Sure call us greedy developers if it floats your boat, but it's important to understand where the money comes from to build the housing and where the resultant profits go. (cont)
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@CTourtellotte
Thanks Chris. The report I got was obviously over the top given reports such as yours coming in. But bottom line they are shutting down and leaving CA.
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project’s cost) are reduced by a full 25% from a 5% tax on the gross sale price.
While I don't expect anyone to shed tears for me and my fellow developers, there is a real consequence of this tax on rental housing production. The consequence is that a great many projects (cont)
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laws to produce more housing is relying on a two legged stool. There is hardly any focus on the very necessary third leg, which is to ensure that cities don't use local ordinances and local laws to sabotage the goals of HE plans and State Housing laws, and kill the new (cont)
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@alfred_twu
Rent control does not incentivize or stimulate new rental housing production.
Rent control disincentives new rental housing production, which would exacerbate the current rental housing shortage.
We know this with certainty, because rent control was widely prevalent in major
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housing is actually good policy for housing affordability. <Shake my head>
I’ve written too much so I’ll stop here with the point: State leaders and policy people need to understand what’s going on at the local level and need to pass state legislation prohibiting the (cont)
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The outcome is: (a) the LA TT reduces development profits by 25%, (b) these lower development profits cause returns/IRR to fall below CalPERS/STRS minimum hurdle rate of return, (c) CalPERS/STRS (and similar pension plans, (cont)
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imposition of new taxes on housing and housing production. Either do that, or suffer greatly reduced housing production across the state.
Again, it’s my business to know the sentiments of cities and local govt. And rest assured we ain’t seen nothing yet. Anticipating (cont)
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will kill it all.
That’s one example of anti-housing production laws that unfortunately have the ability to kill housing projects. There are literally dozens of others.
Another is just last Friday, the Santa Monica Housing Commission just dropped this gem of a (cont)
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endowment plans, sovereign plans around the country) do not make the investment, and (d) the projects don’t get built and the new housing doesn't get created. All in spite of an invigorated RHNA/HE process and favorable State Housing laws. Local laws can, and probably (cont)
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And a great many cities don’t want to meet their HE plan obligations. Right now, behind closed doors, a great many cities are making plans to craft and weaponize local laws along these lines to prevent the new housing. (I know this because I’m a large, active housing (cont)
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housing production the state is attempting to stimulate.
An example of housing-production-killing local law would be the recently imposed 5% transfer tax imposed in the City of LA in Nov. The consequence of this tax is that developers' profits (usually +/- 20% of the (cont)
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built notwithstanding the favorable HE plan and the benefits of state housing laws. We all understand this, yes? Everything being done at the state level to promote more housing production will be eviscerated by local laws such as this.
Cities have smart people. (cont)
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@michaeldlane
Large scale California apartment developer here. Most readers are unaware of the utter fiasco that has been/is occurring wrt Cali utility companies. Inability to obtain timely utility connections for new housing has reached crisis proportions.
@Scott_Wiener
nailed this.
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Presumably everyone understands that if this goes to ballot and is passed (and remember, this are Santa Monica crazies we’re talking about plus the NIMBY’s who are looking for ways to dis-incentivize new housing projects) none of the 8,000 unit SM RHNA allocation will get (cont)
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achieve the hundreds of $'s more per month in rent, in order to get back to the same project and investor IRR as before the imposition of the transfer tax. (Same applies to for-sale developers.)
It's probably appropriate at this point in the thread to address the (cont)
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developer and it is essential I keep up with the internal machinations in the cities where I build or plan to build in.) And of course in addition to the pure NIMBY’s, there is the sincere but utterly misguided crowd who think that imposing add’l taxes on new (cont)
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Another outstanding article from
@DanCALmatters
I do take exception to the framing that the state has attempted to jump start construction in any actually helpful way.
-SB35/423/4 have untenable labor provisions that add 25% to costs rendering these bills useless.
(cont)
New column: California's widening housing gap defies state efforts to jump-start construction
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In Dan Walters excellent article below, he notes the inherent conflict between HAA and CEQA.
As described in Dan's article, Gov Soundbite acknowledges the ways in which CEQA has operated to kill needed housing production.
Yet Gov Soundbite has not proposed CEQA reform to ...
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@moseskagan
Here's what I tell LP's that make ridiculous asks like that: "So you're saying you only want to see the deals everyone else has passed on?"
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@DeanPreston
@moseskagan
Good lord. Do you know why Costa Hawkins was passed first time around?
Answer: Because developers in CA stopped building apartments owing to rent control.
Do you not even understand basic legislative history?
CA already builds far too few apartments. You want even less.
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...CEQA for those projects. Whereas non-100% affordable projects are built open shop, and Labor wants to preserve CEQA review so they can challenge and kill these projects. Apparently an apartment unit constructed using prevailing wages does not impact the environment, but...
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Great little thread from
@mnolangray
The worst home price-to-income ratios go to SF, NYC and LA. These are our most failed cities in terms of housing. These cities are not examples of what to do wrt housing policies. These cities are case studies and examples of what not to
It's important to remember that the idea of "expensive cities" and "affordable cities" is new. Historically, variation in home prices could be explained by variation in (a) incomes and (b) available flat land. Since 1960, variation in development regulation has changed that. 🧵
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...hundreds of thousands of units at all income cohorts. Why not exempt all housing from CEQA? Certainly all in-fill projects should be exempted. What's the difference?
Oh, that's right. 100% affordable projects are built prevailing wage/union. So Labor is ok with no...
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@AaronGuhreen
My favorite is Santa Monica's Architectural Review Board. Still a box to check but it's just theater these days
For one night during the approval process developers pretend that ARB still matters & ARB pretends they still have power. The meetings these days are quite comical
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Housing legislation update:
Gov Soundbite and the rest of CA's worthless legislature talk a good game about stimulating housing production, but then turn around and incorporate housing-killing prevailing wage/union requirements that will result in very little housing produced...
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@moseskagan
It really no longer make sense to build apartments in CA and similar places.
As I noted in a post a few days ago, capital is now pulling out of CA. Certainly a good number of LPs who will still invest in projects, but the numbers are dwindling and the trend is downward.
Since
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@ZavalaA
I'm a large scale apt developer based in CA. I'd bet my life that these numbers are fudged in a substantial way.
Zero chance CA is funding new-built apartments at $350k/unit.
The 57,000 units assuredly includes units that CA is taking credit for, where very little financial
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@AaronGuhreen
And as I'm sure you are well aware, prevailing wage/PLA is on the table now in LA. Not just for ED1 projects but for all projects above a certain size.
If that happens it lights out for apartment development in LA and any other city that would follow suit.
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...Labor can continue to extort housing production.
Labor owns
@GavinNewsom
and senior legislators, so my bet is that this corruption will continue to reign and no CEQA reform for housing, including in-fill housing, will be forthcoming.
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@PublicBooks
Lololol how much bargaining took place when the "community members'" homes were built and changed the neighborhood's prior character?
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..that same unit constructed without prevailing wages has an environment impact that requires many years of study and seven figures of expenditures.
If I were a cynical person I might conclude CEQA reform right now isn't really about the environment, rather it's about whether...
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Decided to make some new point access building friends tonight 🤣
I was going to post this as a reply to one of the endless point access, single stair threads. But the subject is getting more and more play recently so I decided to post this here.
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@AaronGuhreen
@CSElmendorf
Yup. Awful, awful policy if it comes to pass. And everything I’m hearing says it will
Great victory for organized labor though. They’ll get 100% of the work for zero actual projects.
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@ArtemTepler
@AaronGuhreen
We calc'd the additional rent required to pay for prevailing wage/union in LA and it's $475/unit/mo.
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Picking this thread back up from yesterday with
@AaronGuhreen
Ran the numbers: (1) My $475/unit/mo in added rent was wrong as that's the NET rent required to offset add'l PLA costs of $80k/unit. I didn't account for mgmt fees, RE Taxes & insurance expenses that increase with...
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@meghanncuniff
@5280_Attorney
I'll add that for us non-lawyers, Meghann's coverage has allowed us to understand an outcome here that would have been incomprehensible had we not been privy to the goings-on. It's confirmation of Jdg Selna's observation that an open proceeding is very much in the public interest
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Santa Monica's Measure GS and LA's Measure ULA are housing production killers.
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@Jacob11son
I have some first hand knowledge here.
The former Alameda Naval Air Station currently has fully approved but undeveloped housing sites that aren't being built on.
Reasons:
1. Current macro economy headwinds and local economy challenges. This will eventually alleviate.
2.
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@mfriedrichnyc
@newrepublic
Hey everyone I've got a great way to reduce food costs.
We just need to produce less food!
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@AaronGuhreen
This is precisely correct.
We're currently analyzing our pipeline as potential condos. GS and ULA have simply killed the economics of doing rental projects.
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Per
@ArtemTepler
tweet below:
Any academic who provided intellectual cover for ULA (and similar in CC and SM) should be barred from commenting on housing matters in the future.
These are our purported "experts". Dumbasses
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...commentary exists that answers the questions above I'd love to see it.
And if such analysis does not exist, I'd be more than willing to go through an open process here on twitter to work through the numbers collectively.
Anyone?
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@benmaritz
We very recently decided to pull out of affordable and LIHTC development projects on the west coast precisely because of the rapidly deteriorating landscape of eviction laws and practices in these states.
We'll only build luxury class A projects on the west coast as class A
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Huntington Beach
@CityofHBPIO
, Tony Strickland, Michael Gates, I was only half joking below. You'r egoing to lose in the courts. You know this.
But you can use progressive tools to settle while still ensuring that no multi-family housing will be built in your city. You can
The housing killing "input cost" that has most increased is in the form of massive transfer tax increases adopted by LA and SM. Has the effect of reducing investor profits in new housing projects by 50%. Deals that barely penciled before don’t pencil at all in LA and SM anymore.
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...work because the buildings are mixed income and better off residents subsidize the cost for less well off residents. But as an experienced owner/operator of apts for 40 yrs I don't see how those numbers work.
Social housing will be $80k-$100k/unit more expensive to build..
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@AaronGuhreen
Lol yes those are the best.
My real life favorite:
Audience member: the way we do things here is we meet with the developer and craft a project that meets the needs of the neighborhood
Us: No we won’t be doing that. This will be the only mtg
Audience: shock and outrage
🤣🤣
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more housing production and affordability, the last thing you should be doing is including labor requirements that add 22-25% to the cost of construction. Well done Florida!
@Scott_Wiener
and
@GavinNewsom
U guys despise Desantis but he's kicking your a$$ on housing legislation..
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What Prop 33 does is remove the state prohibition against rent control at the local level.
Currently rent control exists for units built prior to 1997 in all the cities with large populations such as LA, SF, Oakland, Santa Monica, Berkeley, etc, etc.
However state law prohibits
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-LA/SM passed housing killing Measures ULA/GS, and city leaders/activists/orgs are so stupid they actually think it was a good thing.
Etc
Fact: No state does more to prevent housing production than CA
CA continues to dramatically under perform the rest of the (cont)
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@cafedujord
San Francisco was gentrifying when no housing was being built.
Black (alone) population as a percentage of the total population:
1980: 12.3%
1990: 10.7%
2000: 7.6%
2010: 6.0%
2020: 5.1%
No city did a better job of gentrifying than San Francisco over the last 40 years. And
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@CohenSite
When recommending a fix, the first rule is to make sure the fix is going to actually work.
Joe’s my guy but his recommendation of a first sale exemption won’t get many new units built.
The fix required for ULA and Santa Monica’s equally harmful Measure GS is a 15 year from
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...than for-profit units owing to the use of union labor for social housing.
As a private developer, I can't make numbers work for new construction w/o achieving full, top of the market rents for each and every unit. And again, the units I build have the...
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@moseskagan
I bring my best deals to the LP's that give me the best terms. And I absolutely tell them this.
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@AaronGuhreen
@CSElmendorf
Actually, my post here was too flippant.
Financial feasibility is simply a math exercise; i.e what offsets would be required to accommodate labor standards
We've calculated what it would take to accommodate PW labor standards without negatively affecting financial feasibility.
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...density bonuses while supplying zero affordable units.
Hope this helps.
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Had the chance to grab lunch today with
@ScottChoppin
He's doing some of the best and most thoughtful apartment development in CA today.
Any LP's out there, it would be worth your while to reach out to Scott.
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...in the real world.
Meanwhile, those evil Floridians just passed an outstanding and entirely helpful housing bill that will absolutely create more housing in real life. And somehow Florida came to the absolutely correct conclusion that if you're trying to stimulate...
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@benmaritz
lol it's a trip to see tiny little kids just riding the subway and navigating their way around.
in the US their parents would be arrested!
Such an amazing culture of trust
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@AaronGuhreen
@Jason_Elliott
I develop in FL and we have stepped on the gas in a big way even in the current economy
DeSantis' SB102 is huge for workforce housing. 75% prop tax abatement. (And...gasp...it has no costly, project killing labor standards either.)
& more
Big win for FL and its citizens.
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@TheDukeofDirt
In other words I go for max rent per foot in urban markets with FAR limits within a defined envelope. And I do the opposite in TX by going for max chunk unit rents and higher FAR
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I'm shocked I say. Shocked!!
Are some (though far from enough) of our Democratic Party legislators waking up to the fact that organized labor bears most of the blame for killing pro housing legislation?
@Steve_Glazer
Much respect.
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PS: This analysis measured the offset using a 15% VLI assumption. Many jurisdictions allow for max density bonus at less than 15% VLI. For these jurisdictions, the $183/unit/mo breakeven rent would therefore be higher since the benefit received would be lower.
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@TheDukeofDirt
In addition to other comments, type of product and zoning matters.
For a garden deal in TX, zoning density is set by unit count for the most part. Densities are lower and marginal hard cost/sf is say $100/sf. So when I skew to larger units and higher mix of 2's/3's I don't...
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I know you guys love being big time politicians, but you've sold your souls here. Housing production legislation should NOT be linked to labor requirements. It's inhumane to CA homeowners and renters. And you two guys are directly responsible...
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@michaeldlane
@CSElmendorf
Gavin's most important political base is organized labor. Labor have wielded CEQA lawsuits like a club in extracting Project Labor Agreements. Labor doesn't want CEQA reform.
Newsom will do something around the edges of CEQA reform for show, but that's it.
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...prevent the development of these projects and the thousands of additional units.
Housing interests don't align with Labor. And Labor interests don't align with Housing. Time to accept that this conflict exists. And then figure what choice to make. Can't accommodate both.
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has the most ignorant people in charge of housing policy compared to everywhere else I build. The results of course bear this out.
It's accurate to say that the single biggest qualification to participate in housing creation policy in CA is to possess absolutely zero (cont)
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Re SB423 & SB4, the tweet below is right on the money, but begs the question, "why?"
Why is California's housing policy being hijacked by labor, and why are residents in the state expected to tolerate it?
Folks are doing victory dances over these two bills, but they will
1/x
@Jakeladeveloper
Prevailing wage was the only way to pass the bill after the skilled and trained requirement was dropped otherwise none of the unions would’ve backed it and it would’ve died in committee
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@CSElmendorf
Thx for amplifying the message Chris. In the thread I alluded to "dozens" of potential measures to kill the housing.
Not all of them are taxation related. For instance, going back to my favorite California city, a Santa Monica city council member in Sept (as I recall) put
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...than say 2%-ish ROC. How does a project yielding 2%-ish ROC get capitalized without a substantial govt subsidy? There's insufficient DSCR to finance the project entirely with debt. And there's no return to equity, so no equity capital will want to invest.
If any...
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Texas is serious about increasing housing production and improving affordability
California is not. SIEU fights third party plan check solutions tooth and nail. And Californians in need of more affordable housing suffer as develop projects languish in bldg depts across the state
New law (HB14) will be enacted in Texas tomorrow
If a municipality doesn't act on your commercial building permit application in 15 days then you can hire a 3rd party to review the plans and issue the permit
Theoretically this will speed things up massively
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@damonhemmerding
Folks not in the business don't have the foggiest idea what disaster DWP & SCE have become. Electrifying projects on time now has become impossible.
Pro housing people, politicians, YIMBY groups and others who champion for more housing don't know what a crisis this is. And
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@Scott_Wiener
You know what else makes housing more expensive and less abundant Scott? Prevailing wage requirements as a barrier to streamlining.
Cost of garage pking space in urban CA multi project: $40-$50k
Cost of PW requirement on an urban CA multi project: $75-$100k
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