nikete
@nikete
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Curiosity driven. Open science , individual privacy, collective cognition. How we learn together, and how to do it better. Building @GroupLang
MVD, Gorzow, Berlin, Barcelona
Joined October 2006
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If you want to do this, but don't feel like moving to San Francisco, get in touch.
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@vgr
China: C- (the least warning so the hardest)
Korea: A (the church event a hard test, doing amazing)
Singapore: A, super impressive
Taiwan: A+, amazing.
Germany, France: D- , italy t -7
Italy, Iran: F (if the ICU is full before you lockdown, you too slow)
US: F (italy t-14)
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copilot makes programming so much nicer, it is incredible to me that it doesn't have total adoption in the professionals who program as one of their contributions.
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Ever wanted to share the value you create with your anon friends in a permissible manner? We got some news for you, by
@0xBrMazoRoig
and me
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MEV is necessary for permisionless protocols. Designers chose the structure of the ordering protocol so that miners seeking to maximally extract value lead to the fulfillment of the design goals of the protocol.
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This reminds me; if you know people who are into making the world better with computers and who could use some months in Berlin, let me know a spare room and board provided.
@halvorz
@SamoBurja
IMO, scenes and social networks are the real engine of amazing stuff in the world
so use it to support some kinda scene
even if that's just "my most creative friends"
give them a spare room rent-free for a while
host small backyard dinners so they can meet each other
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$1 saliva based no electricity sars-cov2 detection protocol (LAMP with hand centrifuge) from the awesome
@PrakashLab
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AI doomerism boils down to belief that P(AGI kills us) > P(AGI helps us not get ourselves killed because it would also take it out). The fact that something is smarter than humans doesn't necessitate it can do better by getting rid of them. It might not be possible to be much ...
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@robinhanson
the main bottlenecks are not training people but oxygen concentrators and non-invasive respirators; there is some work on trying to build up capacity to DIY manufacture these. Without those tools not much you can do, no matter the training (once things are severe)
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lower bound estimates that wearing a mask has a benefit to others of 5000 USD
"The Case for Universal Cloth Mask Adoption & Policies to Increase the Supply of Medical Masks for Health Workers" by me
@judy_chevalier
@NAChristakis
@thehowie
E Kaplan, A Ko (Chair of Epidemiology
@yale
) S Vermund (Dean of School of Public Health
@yale
)
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I have been doing this. The main limits is that telco location (single carrier triangulation) creates very big radius of potential contact (using real data we where getting about 35K people in potential contact a infected person in a large metro) (1/n)
What we especially need is for tech people to outline to epidemiologists the full extent of the surveillance network *already deployed* commercially in the United States, and find out what parts of it will help their work. I and many other nerds are ready to help communicate that
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When your advisor tells you your plan to wrap up your thesis over the next 11 months, will have to be done in 3.
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Distributionally Robust Logistic Regression
(minimizes worst-case expected logloss over set that contains true DGP)
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Fundamental Limits of Online and Distributed Algorithms for Statistical Learning and Estimation
http://t.co/w9xx4Scm57
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I've been thinking about what the welfare optimal distribution of stake in a PoS system is, it be fun to talk about this with more people, so here is a early rough sketch (thanks to
@sxysun1
,
@AnettRolikova
,
@barnabemonnot
, for helpful comments on this)
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Someone who has access to dalle-2 can feed it Borges book of imaginary beings one by one? _
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My PhD Thesis "oral presentation" (aka as close to a live defense as one gets down under) scheduled for June 2nd.
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"shallow nets to be as accurate as deep models they mimic, even though not as accurate directly on the original data"
http://t.co/FPadSsxIER
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@0xQuintus
@ConorMcMenamin9
@vdazaf
@tarunchitra
@MatheusVXF
@ks_kulk
@MaxResnick1
@malleshpai
@eljhfx
@0xBrMazoRoig
and me on sybils attacks, aka false-name proofness,
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@_alice_evans
it is striking that the emergency room gender ratio is opposite to the suicide rate gender ratio, makes me think "want to kill themselves" and "ER visit from self inflicted injuries" are not quite good proxies for each other
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Some thoughts on a AMM design that minimizes MEV by directly eliciting the starting prices at a block to match end of block prices, at the cost of not providing liquidity between blocks.
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this is great, "A unified view of generative models for networks: models, methods, opportunities, and challenges"
http://t.co/aRLknHC5VD
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@michael_nielsen
external-objective-guided science (as opposed to basic science where the objectives are internally driven by the furthering of the understanding itself)
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a favorite recent paper " an equilibrium notion we call performative stability. Performative stability implies that the predictions are calibrated not against past outcomes, but against the future outcomes that manifest from acting on the prediction"
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half of studies using accelerometers, wearables, or smartphones to predict clinical outcomes flawed cross validation
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OH junior researcher: every time I try to read a perp protocol paper I end up more confused than before.
Senior researcher: that is their goal
2023 defi pitch tl;dr
Here's a fundamental problem tracing back to the fact that there's no such thing as a free lunch.
Here's how we obfuscate that problem to make it harder for you to see it.
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@ZakAttack1880
@waitbutwhy
@benshapiro
I think if you want to catch every human you have to go back close to Mitochondrial Eve, so more like ~5000th cousin (150k years ago)
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Combining cost function based market makers with bandit algorithms to make a profit.
http://t.co/GauIBfbW
(joint work with
@mdreid
)
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One of my favorite papers ( ) started a line of work that tries to formalize some related intuitions; it turns out some fairly natural market making strategies for binary options are equivalent to online regret minimization. (1/n)
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@vgr
1. Alternative and non-traditional medicine is largely quacks and net harmful practices. Just like mainstream medicine. The fundamental cause of both is the same: misaligned incentives. Outside antibiotics, vaccination and public sanitation, little works, alternative or not.
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Interpreting prediction markets; a stochastic approach. a NIPS paper by
@caosuomo
,
@mdreid
and myself
http://t.co/rFxjhvAR
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AI alignment in "large" non-zero sum worlds can be about constructing interfaces between the in-sillico cognitive domain and the carbon-based life that make their interactions complementary. Attempting to impose bans via the state is one way of loosing control by driving...
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America: the land where you have to pay for your own infectious disease treatment during an epidemic, but if you survive selling your antibodies is illegal.
I wrote about the race to find COVID-19 survivors—because their blood might be a treatment for current patients
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A potential anti-pattern I've seen in in a couple of papers/posts around permissionless coordination devices, that seems subtle and interesting: to rely in the design of the system on some group of users not to coordinate on profitable, unobservable, collusion.
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AdaBoost and Forward Stagewise Regression are First-Order Convex Optimization Methods
http://t.co/Dqh1d0gea5
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http://t.co/iIBIWdAXBW
The importance of formal proofs: hard to check technical arguments by trusted authors rarely checked in detail.
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This would be fantastic; the same way ZK tech catalyzed by crypto is expanding the available design space of practical computational mechanism designs, so would MPC & enclaves
(1/2)
last week at BIU, Dan Boneh gave a presentation on MEV and laid out a prediction:
the same way zero knowledge cryptography was catalyzed by blockchains over the last years, mpc & enclaves research will be catalyzed by the mev problem in the next years.
i agree :)
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Lawyers are the OG prompt engineers. Working with the incomprehensibly slow cognition embedded in the States legal institutions.
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@michael_nielsen
the NSF could run it like the IRS/SEC whistleblower schemes; calculate a percentage of the funds that the uncovering plausibly benefited and give some share as fellowship funding
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a service that stenographically embeds private keys into photo-prints you send friends and family. Social wallet recovery via, "hey can you take a pic of that pic I sent you"
Shamir's secret sharing but as live laugh love signs spread out across all your friends and relatives houses..
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All thoughts are hallucinations but some are useful
A Survey of LLM Hallucinations & How to Reduce Them
1) Overview of metrics & methods
2) Research progress on:
-Visual-language generation
-Abstractive summarization
-Data-to-text generation
-Machine translation
-Dialogue generation
-Generative Q&A
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The pre-2022 public textual content is the low background steel of datasets.
Nice analogy. We are at the KT Boundary for information. Archivists should lock down the pre-2023 information world. What comes after is going to be… different.
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This is great; "Online Learning of Noisy Data with Kernels"
http://arxiv.org/abs/1005.2296
by Cesa-Bianchi et al.
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@ByrneHobart
equivalent; a currency is ultimately a claim on the output of those who have to meet future obligations in that currency. Debt or taxes denominated in it are two forms of such obligations.
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@francoisfleuret
@IEEESpectrum
I have zero love for the IEEE (a completely captured institution that has turned into a parasite of the host it was nominally serves) but the series also contains, and linsk to at the top very contrasting articles,
Stories of the War in Ukraine: Hanna
Personal stories of the war from IEEE members
spectrum.ieee.org
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@bertcmiller
@phildaian
Be interesting to figure out the tradeoffs between those 3 objectives. Intuitively it seems very hard to do all three to the max. You guys have anything written up on these tradeoffs?
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my best sense is that cross-chain MEV markets will also be based on what is going to get touched
solving evm parallelization, sharding execution (a la narwhal/bullshark worker architecture) and disk i/o feel like they all point to same problem: knowing what is going to get touched and knowing where (which thread, worker etc.) to route each storage access
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Crowd & Prejudice; An Impossibility Theorem for Crowd Labelling without a Gold Standard
http://t.co/HLpxWMrg
(by
@mdreid
and me)
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if you want me not to call you are doomer for demanding others slow down lines of research, then you need to at least give some argument of why the above inequality holds, if it is a religious belief, completely unaffected by evidence, then doomer seems perfectly approapiate.
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@johnregehr
@narayanarjun
looking at outcomes that condition on a screen, and saying the screen is useless is pretty classic tbh.
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I would go as far as to say that to the average music consumer they will be able to pass a musical Turing test
Prediction: Before the end of 2023, very expressive and high quality generative singing voices will become available open source. It will be a deeply transformative technology for music and culture.
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Vector space language modelling, including streaming and incremental version;
http://nlp.fi.muni.cz/projekty/gensim/
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crowdsourced hedge fund startups I know of: quantopian and numer.ai . Seems like there should be others, any pointers ?
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@zacharylipton
or said differently, if you have just published in a journal a paper that will go on to get > 3 thousand citations, your next manuscript there will probably be reviewed by the editor.
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@DrSarahLi
@jeremyphoward
he is explicitly *not* advocating the use of cloth masks in *healthcare* workers. The *population at large* using home made masks, frees up the higher quality masks for the health care users. They both improve outcomes, the home made masks relatively less so.
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The closer to the merge the less incentive compatible for miners to be honest with pow flashbots and not defect and take all the MEV searches reveal. I wonder when this backwards induction dynamic hits.
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router agents as attention allocation
I think there’s an information theoretical boundary on how much a single agent will do in your life.
It’s hard to believe in a single super agent that runs your life.
Humans need different faces. Different voices.
I think we’ll first discover this from prompting agents
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"Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma when jumping from aircraft: randomized controlled trial"
@IvanWerning
@judy_chevalier
@NAChristakis
@thehowie
@Yale
Micro evidence for whether masks prevent you from transmitting the virus is harder to come by -- no one will let you do a randomized experiment where sick people don't wear masks (which should itself indicate how strong the prior is about the effect!),
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@willbradbio
@anderssandberg
worth noting the octave is not a universal human percetual phenomenon, there are cultures where doubling of frequency does not result in pitch equivalence
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One Matlab Per Child: Open source MATLAB to Python compiler.
http://ompc.juricap.com/
. It seems to work quite well, awesome!
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a missing ML public good: a common tokenizer standard for LLMs that want to be composable with each other.
I never realized just how fragile tokenization can be when you're crafting LLM prompts!
Say your model was trained to summarize with "\n\nTLDR:" and you decide to include an extra space after ": " so that the space is excluded from the generated output: it's different tokens.
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best-estimate covid-19 fatality rates (from the pre-print in post bellow ):
Age 0-9: 0.0094%
Age 10-19: 0.022%
Age 20-29: 0.091%
Age 30-39: 0.18%
Age 40-49: 0.4%
Age 50-59: 1.3%
Age 60-69: 4.6% (range 3.8-5.4)
Age 70-79: 9.8% (range 8.2-12)
Age 80+: 18% (range 14-22)
Post Edited: Coronavirus age-specific fatality ratio, estimated using Stan, and (attempting) to account for underreporting of cases and the time delay to death. Now with data and code.
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The data from mobile apps that sell your location, essentially A-GPS is more accurate but the coverage is much spottier, still the contact radious is quite large, not very practical for contact tracing, but enough for modelling the co-habitation and co-working networks (2/n)
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Max-Information, Differential Privacy, and Post-Selection Hypothesis Testing
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a probabilistic stopping rule can remove dependence on the Oracle in escalating betting games while giving good epsilon Bayes Nash
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@ConorMcMenamin9
@llllvvuu
this very recent work with Bruno shows that this problem with commitments breaking mechanisms that look incentive compatible in anon settings is quite insidious, for example pro-rata games look false-name/sybil proof until you consider commitments
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