Klaus Adam
@klaus_adam
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Professor of Economics, University College London, U.K. Formerly: University of Oxford, European Central Bank, University of Mannheim (on leave)
Joined May 2012
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Pinned Tweet
👇👇New
#WeekInEurope
Podcast 🎧👇👇
The French Elections Unpacked
- with Hadrien Camatte (Natixis)
We talk with Hadrien Camatte about the complexities of the French parliamentary election outcome and its implications. Tune in!
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„The country [South Korea] delivered more shells than the entire European Union, and did it in just 41 days.“
This is how incapable Europe is….
So it was real.
"South Korea is the largest supplier of shells to Ukraine, after the United States" Washington Post.
The publication notes that the country delivered more shells than the entire European Union, and did it in just 41 days. more than three hundred thousand 155mm
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German politicians do NOT think strategically about how they could change the situation on the ground in Ukraine. Not at all.
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That's the level of strategic thinking in Germany. Welcome to the biggest Eurozone economy!
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They operated under American protection for too long a period of time. Without American cover and leadership, they just do nothing abroad. Instead, they do what they have learned best over the past decades: catering to domestic audiences.
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They lack the amibition, the imagination and the trust in their own foreign policy capabilities on the ground & believe they simply cannot affect the situation. But why so?
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Germany was one of the last Western nations to ship arms to Ukraine. And there is no domestic discussion of further shipments. None! In particular, of shipments that could make a real difference on the ground.
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Ist das 🇷🇺 Gas erst mal abgestellt, schwant es dann endlich allen in
#Berlin
, dass 🇩🇪 doch ein Interesse an einem schnellen Sieg der 🇺🇦 hat und schnell mehr Waffen geliefert werden sollten.
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The fact that this sort of non-existing foreign policy might imply that Ukraine could fall to Russia is not really an issue of concern for the ruling elites in Germany.
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This sort of catering involves:
- making appeals to
#Russia
which are useless on the ground but reach a domestic audience
- applauding moral actions by others (Russian TV produces holding up a sign, etc.)
- taking some of the "pain" off domestic voters by subsidizing fuel
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I am not sure this will work so well this time round, as the failure of the ruling elites in Germany have become all too apparent. Yet, they largely continue doing what they used to do.
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And the fact that we might have a very different American president in a little bit over two years is perhaps someone else's problem.
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This outcome would simply not be considered to be their failure. Germany is not perceived domestically as being able to make a difference.
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This possible outcome is also not concerning the political elites to much: the US just re-iterated its commitment to defend Nato. They feel safe.
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I firmly believe in the virtue of controlling the
#inflation
rate….
I firmly believe in the virtue of diversity – not only of gender but also of thought and skills – to understand the complexity of today’s challenges.
In an interview with
@Madamefigaro
, I talked about leadership during crises and other topics
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Meanwhile in the UK you'll be able to buy the Oxford vaccine in pharmacies next week:
What a difference to the EU! If this is the future of regulatory competition between EU & UK, I know who will win. European insitutions have to prove their value!
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Proud to announce that my paper with Henning Weber (
@bundesbank
)
"Estimating the Optimal
#Inflation
Target from Trends in Relative Prices"
has been accepted for publication in the
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
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15
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Ich bin 100% für solide Staatsfinanzen. Aber genau deshalb braucht Deutschland 🇩🇪ein neues Sondervermögen für die Bundeswehr und für die Verteidigung der Ukraine 🇺🇦 gegen Russland 🇷🇺 . Jetzt 5% des BIPs einzusetzen wird sich um ein Vielfaches bezahlt machen.
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Proud to announce that my paper with Michael Woodford (Columbia) has now been accepted for publication at the Journal of Economic Theory!
It asks a simple question: when is it optimal for monetary policy to "lean against" house price fluctuations?
(1/N)
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„Die Regierung entlastet die Bürger.“
Wie bitte soll das funktionieren, wenn der Staat selbst keinen Wohlstand schafft? Deshalb sollte es besser heißen:
„Die Regierung nimmt einigen was weg, um es anderen zu geben“
Ist OK, aber man soll das Kind beim Namen nennen.
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Real-Satire: Strompreis-Subvention aus einem Klimafonds....🥳🥳🥳
Bewegung beim
#Industriestrompreis
: Die Bundesregierung hat nach
@handelsblatt
-Informationen einen Weg gefunden, eine zentrale Hürde aus dem Weg zu räumen – die Finanzierung. Lösung soll mal wieder der Klima- und Transformationsfonds (KTF) sein.🧵1/9
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I've written a
#new
#survey
paper titled together with Henning Weber from
@bundesbank
.
The paper is forthcoming in the new
#Handbook
of
#Inflation
, edited by Guido Ascari & Ricardo Trezzi. 1/8
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Und noch mehr „Wir fordern Russland auf…“ Politik.
Es ist ein grausamer Krieg und das Töten von und Zivilisten ist ein Kriegsverbrechen. Die Verantwortung für diese Verbrechen trägt der russische Präsident, Putin. Wir fordern Russland auf, die Waffen schweigen zu lassen. Der Krieg muss aufhören - und zwar sofort!
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Wann geschieht das - vor oder nach der bevorstehenden Schlacht im
#Donbas
?
Die Medienberichte sind zutreffend: Im
#Erg
änzungshaushalt wird die militärische
#Ert
üchtigungshilfe auf 2 Milliarden Euro angehoben. Die Mittel kommen weit überwiegend der
#Ukraine
zugute. Der
@Bundeskanzler
hatte dies frühzeitig angefordert. CL
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👇👇New
#WeekInEurope
Podcast 👇👇
HANK: A New Class of Models for Monetary Policy Analysis, with Ben Moll (London School of Economics)
We discuss with
@ben_moll
about the main new economic insight generated by Heterogenous Agent New Keynesian Models.
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Mannheim is expanding in macroeconomics -- three openings for assistant professors in macro this year!
Come join is at the University of Mannheim and the CDSE
@GESSuniMannheim
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Don’t get fooled: this
#German
decision is largely irrelevant for
#Ukraine
‘s upcoming decisive battle!
The money ist part of a budget that parliament will first have to approve. This happens towards end of Apri and then in May the money can be used to order arms…
BREAKING: Germany plans to release more than a billion euros in military aid to Ukraine
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Anyone here understands why
@bundesbank
pushes strongly for Quantitative Tightening (QT) in the Euro Area?
Here a few things I could come up with/heard but none make sense to me…
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After this disgraceful & and provincial act by MEPs & France, let's see what qualifications the next candidate will bring to the table!
Professor Fiona Scott Morton has informed me of her decision to not take up the post as Chief Competition Economist. I accept this with regret and hope that she will continue to use her extraordinary skill-set to push for strong competition enforcement
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Are France, Italy and Spain with us or not….??
Time for all EU countries to step up their military support to Ukraine. Ukraine defends the security of all of the EU, not just central and Eastern Europe. A strong map showing the percent of GDP military aid.
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How does the
@ecb
decide to finance certain sovereigns but not others?
The sums involved are small, but this is a matter of principle: how can there be zero documentation on how such decisions are made?
Such behavior can fall squarely outside the mandate.
The ECB just published PEPP reinvestments for Feb & Mar 2023. These data show a return to big net buying for Italy and Spain. Big picture is that - since June 2022 - the ECB does QE for some (Italy & Spain) and QT for others (Germany & Netherlands). Is this still monetary policy?
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Can't help but to find this funny....
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Speaking the truth about weakness of the Euroepan
#sanctions
approach!
Your strategy of incremental sanctions doesn’t work. Cannot work…
That’s why 212 members of Parliament demand a special
#EUCO
meeting to decide on full sanctions immediately!
My speech👇🏻
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If birth rates are an indicator for a nation's economic well-being & confindence, then things look really dire in
#China
:
Birth numbers HALVED from 2016 to 2023. And these are just the official numbers.....
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Behindert das
@BVerfG
Urteil die Klimatransformation? Antwort: nein!
Emissionen werden über den ETS-Zertifikatehandel gedeckelt. Staatlich geförderte Investitionen in Klimaschutz (zB Wärmepumpe) führen andernorts dazu, dass weniger ins Klima investiert wird. Unschön aber wahr!
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@HansGruener
and I already predicted in January that we might end up in a bad kind of equilibrium where
#ECB
uses the PEPP reinvestments to purchase gov‘t debt of fiscally vulnerable countries WITHOUT conditions
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Mit dem
@BVerfG
Urteil wird die
#Klimatransformation
viel billiger werden, denn *effizientere* Instrumente werden zum Einsatz kommen müssen!
Für Politker ein Problem: die Kosten der Transformation lassen sich nicht mehr so einfach verstecken & keine Subventionsgeschenke mehr....
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Welche Leichen müssen hier im Keller liegen, dass man das 🇷🇺 Regime so sehr am Leben halten will?
Der SPD-Außenpolitiker
@ralf_stegner
hat sich gegen die Lieferung deutscher Marschflugkörper vom Typ Taurus an die Ukraine ausgesprochen. Stegner sagte im Deutschlandfunk, es liege im deutschen Interesse, eine Eskalation des Krieges zu verhindern.
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Looking forward to our EABCN/Mannheim/Kiel conference:
"New Challenges in Monetary Economics & Macro-Finance"
featuring keynotes by Markus Brunnermeier (Princeton) & Christian Wolf (MIT) + many fantastic speakers!
Jointly organized with
@MSchularick
from
@kielinstitute
.
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🇩🇪 hat den Bock zum Gärtner gemacht: Tochterfirmen von Gazprom managen unsere Gas-Speicher....
Eine
#Enteignung
der Speicher erscheint mir angesagt.
Mit Genugtuung zitiert Putins Agentur, dass die Gasspeicher in Deutschland nur noch zu 25 % gefüllt seien. Ich kann mich erinnern, wie die Regierung noch vor Monaten beteuerte, die auffallend geringe Befüllung durch Russland habe keine politischen Gründe.
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👇👇
#WeekInEurope
Podcast 👇
Robert E. Lucas' Contributions to Economics,
with Juan Pablo Nicolini (Minneapolis Fed)
We review the main aspects of Lucas' work & hear interesting anecdotes about his life & personality. Robert Lucas died May 15, 2023.
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German Chancellor
#Scholz
demands „investigations“ and „punishment“ of the Russian war criminals from
#Bucha
.
Just wondering: that‘s it?? Really??
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Inflationspanik von Gabor Steingart inklusive persönlicher Attacke gegen Isabel Schnabel (
#EZB
).
Zur bessern Einschätzung unten eine Grafik der Inflationsrate im Euroraum, samt 2% Trendlinie seit Beginn der Pandemie: wir liegen deutlich UNTER TREND!
#EZB
-Direktorin Prof.
@Isabel_Schnabel
attackiert die Medien für deren Berichterstattung zur
#Inflation
, weil sie die Ängste stärke. 8 Punkte, warum Schnabels Prophezeiung einer nur vorübergehenden Mini-
#Inflation
eine Meinung beschreibt - aber nicht die Fakten👇
#MorningBriefing
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Everything upside down in the
#EU
:
@ecb
cares about fiscal solvency & finance ministries worry about inflation.
Didn’t the European Treaty assign tasks the other way round?
QE FOREVER! Many
#ECB
governing council members are said to support a proposal to create a new bond-buying program should borrowing costs for member states increase too much.
The ECB has cornered itself a long time ago and is losing credibility on a massive scale.
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Look at these pictures from Mariupol...
Who still wants a "face saving" exit for Putin?
Impressive video of the massive destruction in Mariupol
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Now out in print: my handbook chapter with
@ProfStefanNagel
on:
"Expectations Data in Asset Pricing"
Chapter 16 in the Handbook of Economic Expectations, Elsevier, 2023
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What a bunch of losers are we in Europe…?
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Das deutsche Uni-System erstickt langsam an immer weiter auferlegten Beschränkungen.
Schon jetzt ist keine deutsche Uni unter den Top 50 der Welt. Wir schaffen auch die 100 - nur weiter so!!
👏 👏 👏
Vielen Dank
@CaroWagner_in
@KaczmarekOliver
@laura_kraft_
@ninastahr
@StSeiter
@ria_schroeder
für die guten, lösungsorientierten Verhandlungen! Eine gute Einigung, die junge Wissenschaftler/-innen stärkt und gleichzeitig die Besonderheiten des Wissenschaftssystems berücksichtigt.
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Big news on the origins of
#COVID19
by the Times.
🇨🇳 will have to pay reparations to the World!
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Nach dem
@BVerfG
Urteil erlebt die von #Ökonomen favorisierte CO2-Steuer vlt ein Comback: Die erzeugt beim Klimaschutz sogar noch staatliche Einnahmen!
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Wirklich tragisch. Aber das kommt dabei heraus wenn man „auf Sicht fährt“ statt sich eine STRATEGIE auszudenken, die auch die REAKTION des Gegenspielers mit einkalkuliert:
Habeck & Scholz haben die Rechnung ohne
#Putin
gemacht. Jetzt da seine Kriegskasse gut gefüllt ist, setzt er die Europäer selbst unter Sanktionsdruck & nutzt 🇩🇪s Argumente. Dass nun er entscheidet, ist ein schwerwiegendes 🇩🇪&🇪🇺 Versäumnis in diesem Krieg.
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Great keynote lecture by
@YGorodnichenko
on
„Subjective Expectations and Decisions“
@EconUniMannheim
conference „New Challenges in Monetary Economics“
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Welche Planungen gibt es eigentlich auf Länderebene, die sicherstellen, dass zumindest das Schuljahr 2021/22 wieder geregelt vor Ort stattfinden kann? Die Kinder sind ja im Herbst bestimmt noch nicht geimpft...
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Looking forward to our EABCN Workshop
"New Challenges to Monetary Policy Design"
at Universityof Mannheim, with keynotes by
-
@ludwigstraub
(Harvard) &
- Michael Weber (Chicago Booth)
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University of Mannheim seeking to hire in macroeconomics at the untenured associate level (5-year fixed-term position):
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Submit your paper before February 5!
We have fantastic keynotes speakers:
@YGorodnichenko
(Berkeley)
Fernando Alvarez (Chicago)
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The power of the United States - should cause some serious reflections in Europe!
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We discuss with Russia expert Sergei Guriev (Professor of Economics at Sciences Po, Paris) about - his new book "Spin Dictators" (Princeton University Press)
- Russia's imperial ambitions,
- Putin's regime, and
- the economic relevance of energy sanctions for Russia.
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Why is
#Europe
so bad at defending it’s OWN
#geopolitical
interests?
Many important questions never get coherently addressed:
#1
How can Europe keep a nuclear-armed Russia at bay when American commitment to
#NATO
depends on election outcomes…?
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Well, virtually all economic models would predict just that: government borrowing to finance spending will NOT raise the long -run growth trend of the economy. And in the majority of models not even increase the long-run level of output ….🤷♂️
"With borrowed money you cannot generate growth in the long-run." Why does
@c_lindner
team provide him with absurd lines like this and why does
@faznet
print them?
@Lars_Feld
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My article with Dmitry Matveev (Bank of Canada) and Stefan Nagel (University of Chicago) has just come out in the Journal of Monetary Economics:
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The optics couldn’t be worse: 🇩🇰 and 🇳🇱 pledge F-16 fighter aircraft to 🇺🇦 , while 🇩🇪
@Bundeskanzler
#Scholz
thinks about restricting the range of a POSSIBLE delivery of German Taurus cruise missiles…..🤦♂️
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Why do Biden/Sullivan slow-walk help for 🇺🇦?
The 🇺🇸could easily send help that would end the war quickly, but there exist many "good reasons" for NOT doing so.
Spoiler: none has to do with 🇺🇸 being afraid of Russia 🇷🇺 or U.S. escalation managment.... (1/8)
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Why is it optimal to reduce government debt over time during non-crisis periods?
Here some insights based on this paper of mine:
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This is where we want to send our oil & gas money?
Yesterday, RIA Novosti published a lengthy piece titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine", which explains in detail what Russia understands by denazification. It's truly horrific: 1/6
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Can we all please wake-up in Europe🇪🇺? We urgently need our own defense capabilities.
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This must have consequences. Otherwise, this will get worse, perhaps considerably worse.
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I started a new weekly podcast "The Week that Was in Europe" with Dirk Schumacher (Head of European Macro Research, Natixis):
It's still a bit rough, but contains interesting ideas. We'll learn to smooth it with future editions. Feedback welcome!
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Wahnsinn: Bayern hat wirklich 3 neue Windräder im 1. Halbjahr 2023 genehmigt! 💤💤💤
Bei den Ausschreibungen für Windenergie an Land wurden im 1. Halbjahr 2023 fast so viele Zuschläge erteilt wie jeweils in den beiden Jahren davor. Und auch bei den Genehmigungen geht es mit mehr Tempo voran.📑 7/11
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This is unbelievable - things must be going really well…
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If he (the parliamentary leader of German
#SPD
) not a Russian asset then who is…?
„We need to find balance between the right to self-defense [of 🇺🇦] and….etc.“
„Need diplomatic offensives….“
"Auch an die Adresse der Außenministerin gerichtet"
Deutsche Russlandpolitik: SPD-Fraktionschef Mützenich fordert mehr diplomatische Inititiativen - und fühlt sich "sehr unterstützt" durch die Bevölkerung.
Mehr zum Thema:
#berlindirekt
, 19.10 Uhr
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Will this finally cause
#Europe
to wake up to the urgency of the situation?
"We are going to move a stand-alone Israeli funding bill" -- Mike Johnson on Fox News says he's decoupling Israeli aid from Ukraine aid, the latter of which he suggests is not the same sort of "urgent need"
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It was my pleasure to give a
#keynote
on
„Fiscal Stability & Financial Stability“
at the annual meeting of the
#EU
‘s Independent Fiscal Institutions at
@BMF_Bund
today.
Thanks to
@Thiess_Buettner
for the invitation!
Presentation available here:
➡️ MS debt levels depend on institutional factors and on how they dealt with the European debt crisis. Debt heterogeneity is large and likely to continue to increase
➡️Debt reduction is always desirable as it results in risk reduction
🗣️
@klaus_adam
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These numbers illustrate the low priority given to research in Europe.
Europe will fall further behind other major blocks in major research areas, unless we start to invest WAY MORE.
Milan. Post-doc contracts. € 19.370 gross per year (no income tax but pension contributions to be paid).
Milan.
Hurry up folks!
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Großartig: Es herrscht Krieg in Europa, aber Herr Stegner möchte die europäische Friedensordnung nicht zerstören. Das ist die Art Haltung, die Putins Handeln ermöglicht.
Militärisch lassen sich Probleme nicht lösen. Eine neue Eiszeit mit Krieg+ Wettrüsten würde nicht nur europäische Friedensordnung zerstören, sondern auch Ressourcen kosten, die wir für riesige Herausforderungen bei Klimaschutz, Infrastruktur, globalen Problemen dringend brauchen.
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Jetzt haben wir de facto ein Gas-Embargo (von russischer Seite) aber es keinen strategischen Wert für 🇩🇪, da Russland in den Einnahmen des 1. Halbjahrs geradezu schwimmt.
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Auf die Beiträge anderer europäischer Staaten zu warten macht keinen Sinn für 🇩🇪: Die anderen großen Staaten ( 🇮🇹 🇪🇸 🇫🇷 ) haben keinerlei Spielraum im Budget und die Kleinen sind zu klein. Endlich German Leadership!
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👇👇 NEW
#WeekInEurope
Podcast 👇👇
Should the
#ECB
Raise Its Inflation Target?
Some commentators call for an increase in the
@ecb
target, but central bankers are deeply skeptical. We review the discussion & provide insights from academic research.
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Das erschreckende: man glaubt offenbar, dass diese unsäglichen Vorschläge den Wissenschaftsstandort stärken.
Ich glaube die haben alle KEINE AHNUNG vom Geschäft. 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
Mit dem neuen
#wisszeitvg
wird Arbeiten in der
#Wissenschaft
attraktiver.
Gut für den Wissenschaftsstandort! Erstmals
#Mindestvertragslaufzeiten
– egal ob studentische Mitarbeitende, Doktorand oder promovierte Wissenschaftlerin. Mehr
#Tarifvertr
äge statt
#Tarifsperre
.
@spdbt
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👇👇NEW
#WeekInEurope
Podcast 👇👇
The Reform of Fiscal Rules in Europe, with Olivier Blanchard
As national governments intensely negotiate over the fiscal rules,
@ojblanchard1
joins us to shed light on the diverse views and proposals.
1
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For anyone interest in "Monetary Policy Challenges from Falling Natural Interest rates" here are the slides of my ECB Sintra Forum presentation from today:
0
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Why Is
#Inflation
so Hard to Forecast?
New
#WeekInEurope
Podcast with Dirk Schumacher.
Apple:
Spotify:
Amazon:
Direct link:
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Very honored to have been elected to become a member of Academia Europea ().
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👇👇New
#WeekInEurope
Podcast 👇👇
Optimal Government Debt Dynamics:
Insights from the Economics Literature
We discuss how should government debt should evolve over time, if the goal is to maximize social welfare. It's a tour de force!
1
12
43
Tik Tok needs to be banned in the West: it feeds Chinese Youth educational science, but Western Youth divisive BS and fake news. And that is not by chance but by design.
Why Do Young Americans Support Hamas? Look at TikTok. | The Free Press
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For people interested attending Thu & Fri online:
I will post a
@Zoom
link on
@Twitter
tomorrow.
All times refer to Central European Summer Time.
@Benchimolium
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Niemand verlangt das - aber wenn man selbst die Bestände in der Industrie nicht liefert, dann versteht jeder, dass die
#SPD
einfache nicht will (oder kann…).
„Nein, das mache ich nicht “ – Bundesverteidigungsministerin Lambrecht (SPD) erklärt, warum es ihr wichtiger ist, die Landes- und Bündnisfähigkeit zu erhalten, als weitere Waffen aus den Beständen an die Ukraine zu liefern.
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Online participation possible this Thu & Fri:
"New Challenges in Monetary Economics & Macro Finance"
featuring fantastic keynotes & speakers (program below).
You can attend w/o registration via
@Zoom
:
All times below refer to CEST.
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So proud that my former student and now co-author had a great & well-deserved job market outcome!
🙂📣 I’m excited to announce that I will be joining the San Francisco Fed (
@sffed
) research department this summer. I’m very grateful to my mentors and thrilled to join the fantastic group in SF 🌁🇺🇸
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