Guntram Wolff
@GuntramWolff
Followers
18K
Following
23K
Media
360
Statuses
21K
Europe, climate, geo & defence econ, macro; Prof @SolvayEDU @ULBruxelles; fellow @Bruegel_org @kielinstitute; Frmr Director @dgapev, @Bruegel_org RT≠endorsement
Joined March 2013
Eine sehenswerte Recherche: Zwei russische Schiffe waren genau über dem Explosionsort von #NordStream2 wenige Tage vor Explosion. Sie waren dabei stationär. Das beweisen Funk- und Satellitendaten.
275
328
1K
Why is Germany testing less than 1/4 of the UK and less than 1/2 of France and Italy? Testing and tracing is crucial to contain the pandemic.
53
253
943
Time for all EU countries to step up their military support to Ukraine. Ukraine defends the security of all of the EU, not just central and Eastern Europe. A strong map showing the percent of GDP military aid.
66
264
689
Der deutsche Budgetstreit geht jetzt zu Lasten der Ukraine - und unserer eigenen deutschen Sicherheit. Wie kann man nur so kurzsichtig, unstrategisch und verantwortungslos handeln?. Ukraine: Keine weitere finanzielle Militärhilfe der Bundesregierung
176
139
692
A great piece showing how industry cut gas consumption by some 20 percent without much cuts in value added and how households adapted and saved energy. Capitalism is great in adjusting economy when prices signal need for change.
20
188
617
Nicht überraschend, dass Deutschland und Frankreich inzwischen „fly over“ countries geworden sind. Wir bleiben bei der Unterstützung der Ukraine weit unter dem, was möglich und moralisch geboten wäre. @Bundeskanzler @EmmanuelMacron.
Zelenskyi has left the USA and is already in Poland. He met with President Andrzej Duda. A round trip to friends.
24
103
591
Huge problem for European security. Russia has switched to a war economy and massively expands military production. After the presidential election, Putin might feel even less constrained mobilising more Russians to fight. If we in West don’t step up massively, Ukraine might lose.
37
226
518
Professional news: delighted to head the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) @dgapev as of August after more than 10 wonderful years @Bruegel_org. Looking forward to advancing the strategic debate in Germany and Europe. Can hardly think of a more important moment than now.
We are pleased to announce that our Board has appointed @GuntramWolff as the new Director & CEO of @dgapev, effective August 1, 2022! We are very excited to work with him in shaping the strategic debate in 🇩🇪 that links foreign, economic, climate, technology, & security policy.
132
45
529
The EU and Germany need to get rid of Russian oil and gas much faster than they want to. We must not continue funding Putin's war. My colleagues explain how the US needs to help limit the damage to Europe. It is feasible.
“A trans-Atlantic pact between North America and Europe is essential if Europe is to free itself in the short term from its dependence on Russian energy,” write @Tagliapietra_S, @GeorgZachmann and @MBazilian.
15
115
303
Just to be clear: half of the "experts" that provided evidence to the @BVerfG are lobbyists representing German banks and insurances. If this is benchmark for assessing proportionality by the German court, then I am not surprised by the result.
The list of experts heard by the #BVerfG. We've been over the institutional and ideological affiliations. Then there are the first names. Time for @Lagarde to appoint an all-female team to write that proportionality assessment.
10
131
289
Scholz must send clear messages on his visit to Beijing. In my @FT column, I argue that Scholz needs to give 3 messages. 1) If China was to more materially support Russia, Germany would have to draw costly consequences. European security is a priority.
43
73
260
Es scheint noch viel zu tun bei der nationalen Sicherheitsstrategie… . ich habe mich klar für einen nationalen Sicherheitsrat ausgesprochen. Deutschland fehlt es an strategischer Kultur und Ressortabstimmungen sind unbefriedigend.
21
53
239
So while China invests in Europe's South, Germany reduces its indebtedness by €53bn. Sad to see that Germany does not know how to better use its excess revenues rather than bring down debt that pays negative interest rates. via @SPIEGELONLINE.
18
147
244
Deutschlandticket: 6,7 Millionen Tonnen CO2 weniger in 1 Jahr laut dieser Studie. Staatliche Kosten 3Mrd: Die eingesparte Tonne hat den Steuerzahler also 447 Euro gekostet. Ist das kosteneffizienter Klimaschutz? cc @BachmannRudi .
56
37
231
Ein exzellenter Text von Martin Hellwig, in dem der deutschen Politik die Leviten gelesen werden. Er spricht offen von Verfahrensfehlern, Machtmissbrauch, Nutzung alternativer Fakten die uns jetzt in die Abhängigkeit von Gazprom gebracht haben . @faznet.
11
80
212
Important to get the record straight. President Biden talks about patent waiver while EU actually exports massive amounts of vaccines and has become the world's largest exporter by now. Thank you @EU_Commission for keeping #EU open in these critical times.
Latest on vaccine exports: . The EU has overtaken China as the world's biggest vaccine export location. Note who is green, and who is entirely blue (chart from @jfkirkegaard).
7
109
214
IF (which is a big if) the three EU countries manage like China to plateau the newly confirmed cases, plateau will be reached in Italy in ~30 days and in Germany and France in around 40 days.
21
148
200
The EU spends less per vaccine shot than other industrial countries. This stingy approach cost lives. It's incomprehensible, why budget line for vaccine purchases was so limited while lockdowns cost hundreds of billions. More financial incentives needed to boost production now.
MORNING PODCAST 🎧 Where did the vaccination strategy go wrong? | The Sound of Economics with Uri Dadush @JScottMARCUS and @GuntramWolff 👉
20
85
197
Wann liefert die Bundesregierung wenigstens mehr Air Defence? Wann die Kapazitäten, die Bomber zu stoppen? Oder schauen wir einfach nur zu wie eine Stadt der Größe Münchens zerstört wird?.
Russian propagandists openly call upon bombing of Kharkiv to terrorize and "break the will of the people." Propaganda and disinformation on Kharkiv have become even more aggressive in the last month.
18
59
199
We must expect more cables to be cut, and more pipes to explode. We should get ready for factories to turn dark without warning, satellites to behave strangely, navigation systems to crash and cash dispensers to deny our PINs. @andreaskluth via @opinion.
7
100
172
Now that #Gazprom is closing the #gas tap for Bulgaria and Poland, #EU gas solidarity will be crucial to sustain unity. Being a strong external actor requires internal solidarity, also financially. #sanctions. @Bruegel_org we wrote on this in @ForeignAffairs.
4
38
159
Really delighted that @jzettelmeyer will succeed me in September as @Bruegel_org director. Jeromin is an outstanding economist, an experienced policy maker and a long-standing friend of Bruegel. I am sure he will successfully lead Bruegel in the next phase.
🔔PRESS RELEASE.Jeromin Zettelmeyer @jzettelmeyer has been appointed by Bruegel’s board to succeed Guntram Wolff @GuntramWolff as our director, starting in September 2022.
10
19
163
Daily vaccination rates in the EU countries continue to be way too low. At current speed, it would still take >500 days for everyone to get one shot. Vaccines are available, national governments need to get their act together urgently.
9
85
162
The message is clear: The biggest impact for the EU is still ahead. Even Italy is only seeing the beginning. It is urgent to (a) mobilise hospital facilities, (b) roll out fiscal support for those most affected, (c) prepare macroeconomic support as this will affect confidence.
6
62
154
Seriously? Europe needs to get better in supporting Ukraine. "The US has disbursed $4bn in economic aid to Kyiv . The EU has scraped together only €1bn of the €9bn it pledged in April amid disputes over whether it should provide grants or loans." .
11
48
144
@schnellenbachj Also das Argument ist doch wirklich quatsch, sorry. Wasserverbrauch durch Trinken ist minimal. Ausserdem: Wird zu wenig getrunken, sind das erhebliche gesundheitliche Kosten für die Gemeinschaft.
4
1
149
Macrons Interview war auch deshalb so falsch, weil er vollkommen die Bedeutung Taiwans für die Weltwirtschaft ignoriert. (von der Bedeutung für die Demokratie in Asien ganz zu schweigen) via @derspiegel.
14
43
148
The number of times I heart German officials telling me that Germany is increasing its public investments. Simply not in the data as I showed in previous tweet. Here a nice chart on railway investments.
14
57
143
Es ist vollkommen unerklärlich, warum wir nicht seit 3 Monaten regelmäßig die Message bekommen "Gas sparen".
To be very clear and for the historical record: there is a good chance Germany runs into gas shortages this winter. All cabinet members that do not urge the public to save gas will share responsibility if that risk materializes. It's a high-stakes gamble, @Bundeskanzler.
10
27
138
Wolfgang Merkel's Logik ist bizarr: keine Waffen - > Verhandlungslösung-> weniger Tote. Die Idee, dass Russland einfach weitermarschiert und damit unzählige unschuldige Menschen töten und unterdrücken wird, wird noch nichtmal erwogen. Nichts gelernt in den letzten 3 Monaten?.
Versuch: Mit dem link o. ist der Artikel von mir heute im TSP besser zu lesen als auf dem Photo. Es geht um die Logik von #Krieg u #Politik.Bin gespannt, ob einmal anstelle der Pawlowschen Beißreflexe und Beleidigungen auch andere Reaktionen kommen.
8
12
142
Ein sehr lesenswerter Text des früheren Bundesfinanzministers Hans Eichel: Das Bundesverfassungsgericht auf Irrwegen via @faznet.
9
37
140
Fällt es der Berliner politischen Blase eigentlich auf, dass Osteuropa das Vertrauen in Berlin komplett verliert? (So es denn je wirklich da war). Liebe Bundesregierung, bitte Handeln.
Als Vorsitzende kann ich objektiv sagen: Im Verteidigungsausschuss ist es nicht besprochen worden.
12
14
133
Good morning from Brussels. After a stressful few months, I had a wonderful week off hiking. Here one of my favourite pictures.
5
2
135
This is an important read showing how key figures in the German SPD have understood that only a tough new approach with Russia can be successful. Appeasement would be a serious mistake. German foreign policy needs to work more with Warsaw, Vilnius and be grounded in West.
Finally the english version of my Op-Ed: A New #Ostpolitik for the #Zeitenwende. European security can only be organized against #Russia, while 🇩🇪 needs to forge closer ties with its Central+Eastern European neighbors. Thanks to @IPQuarterly.
9
22
130
German re-armement in face of rapid Russian military-industrial production must be a huge worry. At current procurement speeds, we would need decades to reach 2004 stocks. More worryingly, #Russia produces in ~6 months as much as all of #Bundeswehr stocks @kielinstitute thread
4
64
131
The US election is also a huge opportunity for Europe to attract talent as Donald Trump’s victory drives surge in US students seeking courses abroad. Can we seize it? .
12
54
127
EU vaccination finally getting to speed. Germany first time with a faster rate per capita than UK (after a huge UK drop). At current speed, 50 % of population vaccinated at least once in approximately less than 100 days. Hope we can see a further acceleration. @Bruegel_org
4
36
115
If this story is correct that because #EU wanted to be nice with French Sanofi and is therefore short in Biontech vaccine supply, then it is inexcusable. The human and economic toll is just too big. It also undermines core EU principles via @derspiegel.
15
47
131
With @JDVance1 , @realDonaldTrump has chosen a smart and determined VP candidate and shows he's confident to win the election. Europe urgently needs to prepare for this scenario as the baseline. Germany in particular needs to rapidly change its economic and security policies 1/4:.
10
48
128
Great column by @CarolineGruyter on the intellectual and generational shift in Germany and among its economists in particular. University of Bonn students play some role here.
0
54
122
Excellent news here. The German debate is really different and a deal is possible IMHO.
Full page in Germany's largest news paper Bild calling for solidarity with Italy. It is full of national clichés, but a very different vibe than during the Eurozone crisis. Next stop - calling for full and unconditional economic solidarity for reconstruction.
4
37
111
Russische #Kriegswirtschaft und Anpassung an Sanktionen: Seit der russischen Invasion in die Ukraine vom 24. Februar letzten Jahres hat #Russland erhebliche Materialverluste erlitten. So wurden z.B. geschätzt die Hälfte der russischen #Panzer zerstört. Wie reagiert das Land?
4
24
110
No offence, @BorisJohnson and @vonderleyen, but I do need to start baking the Christmas cake with my 5 year old. Would be great for Europe if you could give us a Christmas gift soon. .
3
4
113
Great news. German savers can get positive yields again for 30y Bund thanks to the decision by the government to actually borrow in the market.
Good morning from #Germany, where there has been a sharp sell-off in govt bonds as Germany completely u-turned from austerity champion to Europe’s big spender. 30y yields turned positive again, 20y yields jumped to almost 0% on German shift from fiscal frugality to largesse.
5
33
112
Was ist nur aus der Partei des Liberalismus geworden? Ist das nur wirtschaftliche Inkompetenz oder ein Anbiedern an Trump & MAGA?. Bei EZB und Bundesbank: Lindner plädiert für Kryptowährungsreserven via @derspiegel.
16
21
116
And we still want to fill Russia's war chests like before by paying huge sums for oil and gas?.
6
45
105
It is great that #euco agreed on an oil embargo. But agreement is not ideal. It will take many months until implemented, months during which prices will be high and Russian revenues will increase, rather than decrease. 1/n.
11
33
105
I cannot remember any @BVerfG ruling in which the two key judges would within a week have to go to the press to explain what they were doing. I guess they start realising what they have done and that their reputation is at stake. Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?.
12
40
106
No longer welcome: the EU academics in Britain told to ‘make arrangements to leave’
10
254
98
Brexit is a great British bore. Europe has moved on, and the UK should be worried | Guntram Wolff
12
75
84
Proud to report that @Bruegel_org won the @prospect_uk think tank award as best European economic and financial affairs think tank. A big thank you to the entire staff at Bruegel and all those who have supported us.
Happy to receive @prospect_uk Think Tank Awards 2019 for Best European Economic and Finance Affairs Think Tank #ThinkTank
4
22
99
#EU debt for #EU #air defence: agree with @donaldtusk @kmitsotakis and @vonderleyen case for jointly funding a #EuropeanIronDome . The Germany-led European Sky Shield Initiative should be expanded, with joint EU funds and more purchases from EU defence companies. a thread 1/n
20
36
96
Of course, this is not an epidemiological study but a simple statistical exercise. A lot will depend on how well EU authorities will be able to reduce the speed of the spreading of the Virus and many other factors that health specialists should advise on.
5
22
87
So much looking forward to new vibes.
1
18
87
Hertie School loses an inspirational leader, Germany loses one of its greatest political economists, France loses a real friend, Europe loses a great European. I am grateful @henrikenderlein for the exchanges we could have. My thoughts are with your family. RIP.
It is with great sadness that we announce the passing of our beloved faculty member and past President, Henrik Enderlein. We mourn alongside his family and offer our deepest sympathies. Our community has lost a dear friend and he will be greatly missed.
1
6
95
Thank you @radeksikorski for your speech and @NathalieTocci for the great debate on the war and how Germany needs to change to ensure Ukraine wins and Russia loses this war. @dgapev
3
15
87
AKK resigned. Many in Europe and France will be relieved, but beware, the orderly transition that Merkel attempted has failed. It will take time for German politics to sort itself. That means EU initiatives are blocked, probably until well into 2021.
7
68
88
My piece that Germany should scrap a public holiday to fund rising defence and climate expenditure got huge push back. Today, @FT recalls that we Germans have among the lowest hours worked in Europe. (average annual hours worked per worker)
30
25
91
How can she say such a thing? The ECB should never say this. We have just massively increased the risks of a euro area crisis resulting from #Covid19 shock. OMG. See @Bruegel_org of today where we said exactly the opposite.
Lagarde: We are not here to close spreads, there are other tools and other actors to deal with these issues.
4
44
90
A nice chart showing that real interest rates on German savings accounts have been below zero even in times of D-Mark. If you add that nominal interest is taxed, real returns were even worse. Germany's debate on ECB needs to change urgently.
Der durchschnittliche Realzins für Spareinlagen (Nominalzins minus Inflationsrate) war zu D-Mark-Zeiten (Daten von 1967 bis 1998) -0,004%. Der deutsche Sparer war also schon immer arm dran. @SPIEGELONLINE
1
52
85
Why we need a European armament commissioner and not a defence commissioner. Resistance will be big: just like in banking union, military procurement touches a core area of national sovereignty and vested interests.
4
34
83
There is two scandals: (1) why are Europeans unable to co-ordinate such deliveries, especially from regions where there is little threat and (2) why haven't we ordered more Patriots despite idle production capacity?.
European countries, with scores of Patriots sitting idle, rebuff Kyiv’s calls for more air defence supplies as Russia bombards Ukraine’s power infrastructure . via @ft @ChristopherJM @GuyChazan.
4
26
84
Failing to acknowledge that substitution between sectors of economic activity will soften the blow. Instead trying to preserve the existing economic structures. What a blow to #Ukraine. @BachmannRudi.
Here is Scholz‘ criticism of pro-boycott economists & their models.
3
15
76
Great to see this EU inititative: EU plans joint navy patrols to combat Russian spy ships
2
16
74
Die COVID Situation in China ist dramatisch. Millionen Tote sind möglich und sogar wahrscheinlich. Deutschland sollte Unterstützung mit Impfstoffen anbieten. Aus Menschlichkeit und auch aus Eigennutz. Chinas Situation wird uns über wirtschaftliche und Gesundheitskanäle betreffen.
⚠️THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of 🇨🇳 & 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start—🧵.
13
19
79
2
18
79
So Germany' federal budget plan is to spend 470bn in 2025, after 476,8 in 2024. A real spending drop of 18bn assuming 2.4% inflation in 2024.
Dafür, dass von einem Sparhaushalte die Rede war, kündigt die Ampel aber viele neue, wenn auch kleinteilige Maßnahmen an. Bin gespannt, wie gleich erklärt wird, wie die Lücke geschlossen wird. Alle ersten Details zur Haushaltsreinigung hier👇#.
7
23
76
2) European unity is a German priority. Any trade coercion against one member of #EU is an attack against the entire single market. 3) third message is to businesses travelling with him: do contingency planning for geopolitical escalation. Reduce strategic &critical dependencies.
12
8
77
@AnnaDi_Mario @jimbrunsden @CBeaune I propose Latin. It's most precise in its grammar and we would all have to study a lot.
4
5
80
Good economists like @XSalaimartin know little of EU law. States not regions are members of EU, leads to bad advise
12
74
74
Short professional update: Excited to have started a new full time position as Professor of economics @SolvayEDU @ULBruxelles where I am the inaugural holder of the Euroclear chair on sustainable finance. Looking forward to work with so many great new colleagues.
8
7
80
Just a reminder: climate crisis is what we really need to worry about. .
1
46
76
Thank you to the Belgian health service and everybody involved for getting the first Covid vaccine into my arm.
1
0
73
Unfortunately dominant thinking in Europe remains hope that #Harris means little defence spending. No matter #Trump or #Harris: Europe has to massively increase #defence spending as US faces major weapon shortages. More @Bruegel_org soon.Check out US:
“Right now we are arguing amongst ourselves about how to raise €100bn for defence and whether we really need to,” said another EU diplomat, referring to the bloc’s debate about a joint debt issue. “If Trump wins, we’ll instead be talking about €1tn and it won’t be optional.”.
2
20
75
Dieses Thema ist nicht verschwunden. Wir müssen in Europa ernsthaft an europäischer Verteidigung arbeiten, auch wenn Transatlantiker das schwierig finden.
Trump says Russia is not a threat, our greatest threat is our American representatives, we need to reevaluate the purpose of NATO, and most of the people in the State Dept, DOD and Intel Services need to be fired so he can put the right people in.
7
16
72
.@MSchularick @Cornelia_Woll und ich argumentieren in @faznet, dass Deutschland auch nach dem 24 Februar von falschen Prämissen ausging. Für die Zukunft braucht es einen nationalen Sicherheitsrat der jenseits von Ressortlogik unangenehme Szenarien plant
7
21
73
Helmut #Kohl died (1930-2017). He will be remembered for re-unification and as the one who brought Germany in euro against much domestic opp.
10
60
69
#Musk Angriffe zielen auf das Herz der liberalen Demokratie in Europa. Auch Konservative sollten sich klar machen, was hier auf dem Spiel steht. Es geht schon lange nicht mehr nur um die Grünen sondern um die Idee liberaler Demokratie.
13
21
73
excellent.
🔴 UNPRECEDENTED: EU grants #Ukraine zero-tariff, zero-quota trade. These measures will boost trade & keep its economy going. This is vital to win the war and recover post-war. This shows 🇪🇺's unwavering commitment to helping 🇺🇦 in its hour of need. 👉
2
12
75
The ruling is indeed a catastrophe for the legal order of the EU.
"Today's the opening of a Pandora box. Poland will turn to this kind of argument and say: “even the Germans do it, we don’t have to obey claims of the supremacy of EU law”. This is extremely catastrophic. The ECJ must react: they can’t just let this happen" - @prof_mayer #BVerfG.
5
35
71
Horrible crimes.
💬 Russia's Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova: More than 190,000 children had arrived in Russia from Donbass by early May, including about 1,200 coming from orphanages in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. 🔗
2
14
73
I have spoken at three meetings of EU finance minister about why we need rapid advances of Capital Markets Union. Agree with @BrunoLeMaire "I am fed up with empty statements. We need strong decisions". EU is falling massively behind on future growth .
7
17
74
On the way to @MunSecConf with colleagues of team @dgapev @KiraVinke @dschirwon @LeonieStamm zur Münchener Sicherheitskonferenz
3
3
71
36% of Italian debt is held abroad. IT Banks currently hold 17%. But 36% of Italian debt is 685bn, about 3 times as large as for Greece in 2010, where the share was 74%. This crisis falls on Italy first but all of Europe is hugely affected.
3
95
72
Very big problem for our European security.
Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has gone public about the reduction in the supply of artillery shells to Ukraine, telling reporters that deliveries of the munitions have "really slowed down."
3
21
67
Inflationsangst zu schüren funktioniert in Deutschland einfach immer. Egal was die Fakten sagen. Seit mindestens 10 Jahren höre ich das ständig, dass wir ungefähr in 1-2 Jahren die Hyperinflation haben werden.
Steigende Verschuldung bringt Hyperinflation – und am Ende die Währungsreform via @welt
9
12
67
Excellent to see this Ukraine Support Tracker. USA is giving more than all of EU together to support Ukraine. @kielinstitute.
Welche Regierungen unterstützen die Ukraine und in welcher Form? Meine Koautoren und ich vom @kielinstitute haben heute den Ukraine Support Tracker (Datenbank + Papier) veröffentlicht: Die USA sind bei weitem der wichtigste Unterstützer. Ein thread.
6
24
61
So, Germans apparently will be allowed to pass their summer holidays in Austria, other nationalities not. @vonderleyen @EU_Commission really?.
Ernsthaft?.
13
37
67
Short thread on French military production: A substantial increase in defence procurement spending is clearly visible. The time to produce a Caesar howitzer has halfed while the output has doubled. Similar for the missile Mistrale and Rafale.
2
27
70
Hätte ein schwaches Russland wirklich destabilisierende Nebeneffekte, @ClaudMajor ? Ich denke, es hätte auch erheblichen stabilisierende Effekte in vielen Regionen in Russland und Umgebung.
8
4
65
Military expenditure in percent of GDP. Germany‘s Zeitenwende is not visible in 2022 data, much in contrast to Poland for example
9
22
62
Delighted to be recognised as a top 10 influencer on Europe by Table Media.
. @GuntramWolff @jzettelmeyer @GeorgZachmann.@Bruegel_org @Shahinvallee @dgapev @stormy_mildner @AspenGermany
9
3
68
Sanktionen wirken, aber sie werden mehr und mehr umgangen. Deswegen ist eine Verschärfung und strikte Umsetzung der Sanktionen nötig, um Russlands Kriegswirtschaft einzuschränken. #Enforcement wird wichtiger, wie z.B. hier:
2
11
64