Guntram Wolff
@GuntramWolff
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21,120
Europe, climate, defence eco, eco security, macro; Fellow @Bruegel_org @kielinstitute ; Prof @BrandtSchool ; Frmr Director @dgapev & @Bruegel_org RT ≠ endorsement
Joined March 2013
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Why is Germany testing less than 1/4 of the UK and less than 1/2 of France and Italy? Testing and tracing is crucial to contain the pandemic.
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Time for all EU countries to step up their military support to Ukraine. Ukraine defends the security of all of the EU, not just central and Eastern Europe. A strong map showing the percent of GDP military aid.
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Der deutsche Budgetstreit geht jetzt zu Lasten der Ukraine - und unserer eigenen deutschen Sicherheit.
Wie kann man nur so kurzsichtig, unstrategisch und verantwortungslos handeln?
Ukraine: Keine weitere finanzielle Militärhilfe der Bundesregierung
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A great piece showing how industry cut gas consumption by some 20 percent without much cuts in value added and how households adapted and saved energy. Capitalism is great in adjusting economy when prices signal need for change.
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Nicht überraschend, dass Deutschland und Frankreich inzwischen „fly over“ countries geworden sind. Wir bleiben bei der Unterstützung der Ukraine weit unter dem, was möglich und moralisch geboten wäre.
@Bundeskanzler
@EmmanuelMacron
Zelenskyi has left the USA and is already in Poland. He met with President Andrzej Duda. A round trip to friends.
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Huge problem for European security. Russia has switched to a war economy and massively expands military production. After the presidential election, Putin might feel even less constrained mobilising more Russians to fight. If we in West don’t step up massively, Ukraine might lose
Russian weapons production growing pretty much exponentially.
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Professional news: delighted to head the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
@dgapev
as of August after more than 10 wonderful years
@Bruegel_org
. Looking forward to advancing the strategic debate in Germany and Europe. Can hardly think of a more important moment than now
We are pleased to announce that our Board has appointed
@GuntramWolff
as the new Director & CEO of
@dgapev
, effective August 1, 2022! We are very excited to work with him in shaping the strategic debate in 🇩🇪 that links foreign, economic, climate, technology, & security policy.
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The EU and Germany need to get rid of Russian oil and gas much faster than they want to. We must not continue funding Putin's war. My colleagues explain how the US needs to help limit the damage to Europe. It is feasible.
“A trans-Atlantic pact between North America and Europe is essential if Europe is to free itself in the short term from its dependence on Russian energy,” write
@Tagliapietra_S
,
@GeorgZachmann
and
@MBazilian
.
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Just to be clear: half of the "experts" that provided evidence to the
@BVerfG
are lobbyists representing German banks and insurances. If this is benchmark for assessing proportionality by the German court, then I am not surprised by the result.
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Scholz must send clear messages on his visit to Beijing. In my
@FT
column, I argue that Scholz needs to give 3 messages.
1) If China was to more materially support Russia, Germany would have to draw costly consequences. European security is a priority.
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Es scheint noch viel zu tun bei der nationalen Sicherheitsstrategie…
ich habe mich klar für einen nationalen Sicherheitsrat ausgesprochen. Deutschland fehlt es an strategischer Kultur und Ressortabstimmungen sind unbefriedigend.
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So while China invests in Europe's South, Germany reduces its indebtedness by €53bn. Sad to see that Germany does not know how to better use its excess revenues rather than bring down debt that pays negative interest rates. via
@SPIEGELONLINE
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Important to get the record straight. President Biden talks about patent waiver while EU actually exports massive amounts of vaccines and has become the world's largest exporter by now. Thank you
@EU_Commission
for keeping
#EU
open in these critical times.
Latest on vaccine exports:
The EU has overtaken China as the world's biggest vaccine export location.
Note who is green, and who is entirely blue (chart from
@jfkirkegaard
).
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Ein exzellenter Text von Martin Hellwig, in dem der deutschen Politik die Leviten gelesen werden. Er spricht offen von Verfahrensfehlern, Machtmissbrauch, Nutzung alternativer Fakten die uns jetzt in die Abhängigkeit von Gazprom gebracht haben
@faznet
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IF (which is a big if) the three EU countries manage like China to plateau the newly confirmed cases, plateau will be reached in Italy in ~30 days and in Germany and France in around 40 days.
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The EU spends less per vaccine shot than other industrial countries. This stingy approach cost lives. It's incomprehensible, why budget line for vaccine purchases was so limited while lockdowns cost hundreds of billions. More financial incentives needed to boost production now
MORNING PODCAST 🎧 Where did the vaccination strategy go wrong? | The Sound of Economics with Uri Dadush
@JScottMARCUS
and
@GuntramWolff
👉
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Wann liefert die Bundesregierung wenigstens mehr Air Defence? Wann die Kapazitäten, die Bomber zu stoppen? Oder schauen wir einfach nur zu wie eine Stadt der Größe Münchens zerstört wird?
Russian propagandists openly call upon bombing of Kharkiv to terrorize and "break the will of the people." Propaganda and disinformation on Kharkiv have become even more aggressive in the last month.
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We must expect more cables to be cut, and more pipes to explode. We should get ready for factories to turn dark without warning, satellites to behave strangely, navigation systems to crash and cash dispensers to deny our PINs.
@andreaskluth
via
@opinion
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Now that
#Gazprom
is closing the
#gas
tap for Bulgaria and Poland,
#EU
gas solidarity will be crucial to sustain unity. Being a strong external actor requires internal solidarity, also financially.
#sanctions
.
@Bruegel_org
we wrote on this in
@ForeignAffairs
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Really delighted that
@jzettelmeyer
will succeed me in September as
@Bruegel_org
director. Jeromin is an outstanding economist, an experienced policy maker and a long-standing friend of Bruegel. I am sure he will successfully lead Bruegel in the next phase.
🔔PRESS RELEASE
Jeromin Zettelmeyer
@jzettelmeyer
has been appointed by Bruegel’s board to succeed Guntram Wolff
@GuntramWolff
as our director, starting in September 2022.
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Daily vaccination rates in the EU countries continue to be way too low. At current speed, it would still take >500 days for everyone to get one shot. Vaccines are available, national governments need to get their act together urgently.
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@schnellenbachj
Also das Argument ist doch wirklich quatsch, sorry. Wasserverbrauch durch Trinken ist minimal. Ausserdem: Wird zu wenig getrunken, sind das erhebliche gesundheitliche Kosten für die Gemeinschaft.
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The message is clear: The biggest impact for the EU is still ahead. Even Italy is only seeing the beginning. It is urgent to (a) mobilise hospital facilities, (b) roll out fiscal support for those most affected, (c) prepare macroeconomic support as this will affect confidence.
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Seriously? Europe needs to get better in supporting Ukraine. "The US has disbursed $4bn in economic aid to Kyiv ... The EU has scraped together only €1bn of the €9bn it pledged in April amid disputes over whether it should provide grants or loans."
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Macrons Interview war auch deshalb so falsch, weil er vollkommen die Bedeutung Taiwans für die Weltwirtschaft ignoriert. (von der Bedeutung für die Demokratie in Asien ganz zu schweigen) via
@derspiegel
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The number of times I heart German officials telling me that Germany is increasing its public investments. Simply not in the data as I showed in previous tweet. Here a nice chart on railway investments.
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Es ist vollkommen unerklärlich, warum wir nicht seit 3 Monaten regelmäßig die Message bekommen "Gas sparen".
To be very clear and for the historical record: there is a good chance Germany runs into gas shortages this winter. All cabinet members that do not urge the public to save gas will share responsibility if that risk materializes. It's a high-stakes gamble,
@Bundeskanzler
.
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Wolfgang Merkel's Logik ist bizarr: keine Waffen - > Verhandlungslösung-> weniger Tote.
Die Idee, dass Russland einfach weitermarschiert und damit unzählige unschuldige Menschen töten und unterdrücken wird, wird noch nichtmal erwogen. Nichts gelernt in den letzten 3 Monaten?
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Ein sehr lesenswerter Text des früheren Bundesfinanzministers Hans Eichel: Das Bundesverfassungsgericht auf Irrwegen via
@faznet
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Fällt es der Berliner politischen Blase eigentlich auf, dass Osteuropa das Vertrauen in Berlin komplett verliert? (So es denn je wirklich da war)
Liebe Bundesregierung, bitte Handeln.
Als Vorsitzende kann ich objektiv sagen: Im Verteidigungsausschuss ist es nicht besprochen worden.
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Good morning from Brussels. After a stressful few months, I had a wonderful week off hiking. Here one of my favourite pictures.
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This is an important read showing how key figures in the German SPD have understood that only a tough new approach with Russia can be successful. Appeasement would be a serious mistake. German foreign policy needs to work more with Warsaw, Vilnius and be grounded in West.
Finally the english version of my Op-Ed: A New
#Ostpolitik
for the
#Zeitenwende
. European security can only be organized against
#Russia
, while 🇩🇪 needs to forge closer ties with its Central+Eastern European neighbors. Thanks to
@IPQuarterly
.
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If this story is correct that because
#EU
wanted to be nice with French Sanofi and is therefore short in Biontech vaccine supply, then it is inexcusable. The human and economic toll is just too big. It also undermines core EU principles via
@derspiegel
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EU vaccination finally getting to speed. Germany first time with a faster rate per capita than UK (after a huge UK drop). At current speed, 50 % of population vaccinated at least once in approximately less than 100 days. Hope we can see a further acceleration.
@Bruegel_org
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With
@JDVance1
,
@realDonaldTrump
has chosen a smart and determined VP candidate and shows he's confident to win the election. Europe urgently needs to prepare for this scenario as the baseline. Germany in particular needs to rapidly change its economic and security policies 1/4:
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Great column by
@CarolineGruyter
on the intellectual and generational shift in Germany and among its economists in particular. University of Bonn students play some role here....
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Excellent news here. The German debate is really different and a deal is possible IMHO.
Full page in Germany's largest news paper Bild calling for solidarity with Italy. It is full of national clichés, but a very different vibe than during the Eurozone crisis.
Next stop - calling for full and unconditional economic solidarity for reconstruction.
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Russische
#Kriegswirtschaft
und Anpassung an Sanktionen: Seit der russischen Invasion in die Ukraine vom 24. Februar letzten Jahres hat
#Russland
erhebliche Materialverluste erlitten. So wurden z.B. geschätzt die Hälfte der russischen
#Panzer
zerstört. Wie reagiert das Land?
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No offence,
@BorisJohnson
and
@vonderleyen
, but I do need to start baking the Christmas cake with my 5 year old. Would be great for Europe if you could give us a Christmas gift soon...
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Great news. German savers can get positive yields again for 30y Bund thanks to the decision by the government to actually borrow in the market.
Good morning from
#Germany
, where there has been a sharp sell-off in govt bonds as Germany completely u-turned from austerity champion to Europe’s big spender. 30y yields turned positive again, 20y yields jumped to almost 0% on German shift from fiscal frugality to largesse.
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And we still want to fill Russia's war chests like before by paying huge sums for oil and gas?
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It is great that
#euco
agreed on an oil embargo. But agreement is not ideal. It will take many months until implemented, months during which prices will be high and Russian revenues will increase, rather than decrease.... 1/n
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I cannot remember any
@BVerfG
ruling in which the two key judges would within a week have to go to the press to explain what they were doing. I guess they start realising what they have done and that their reputation is at stake. Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
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No longer welcome: the EU academics in Britain told to ‘make arrangements to leave’
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Proud to report that
@Bruegel_org
won the
@prospect_uk
think tank award as best European economic and financial affairs think tank. A big thank you to the entire staff at Bruegel and all those who have supported us.
Happy to receive
@prospect_uk
Think Tank Awards 2019 for Best European Economic and Finance Affairs Think Tank
#ThinkTank
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Brexit is a great British bore. Europe has moved on, and the UK should be worried | Guntram Wolff
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#EU
debt for
#EU
#air
defence: agree with
@donaldtusk
@kmitsotakis
and
@vonderleyen
case for jointly funding a
#EuropeanIronDome
. The Germany-led European Sky Shield Initiative should be expanded, with joint EU funds and more purchases from EU defence companies. a thread 1/n
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So much looking forward to new vibes
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Of course, this is not an epidemiological study but a simple statistical exercise. A lot will depend on how well EU authorities will be able to reduce the speed of the spreading of the Virus and many other factors that health specialists should advise on.
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Hertie School loses an inspirational leader, Germany loses one of its greatest political economists, France loses a real friend, Europe loses a great European. I am grateful
@henrikenderlein
for the exchanges we could have. My thoughts are with your family. RIP
It is with great sadness that we announce the passing of our beloved faculty member and past President, Henrik Enderlein.
We mourn alongside his family and offer our deepest sympathies. Our community has lost a dear friend and he will be greatly missed.
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AKK resigned. Many in Europe and France will be relieved, but beware, the orderly transition that Merkel attempted has failed. It will take time for German politics to sort itself. That means EU initiatives are blocked, probably until well into 2021.
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Thank you
@radeksikorski
for your speech and
@NathalieTocci
for the great debate on the war and how Germany needs to change to ensure Ukraine wins and Russia loses this war.
@dgapev
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My piece that Germany should scrap a public holiday to fund rising defence and climate expenditure got huge push back. Today,
@FT
recalls that we Germans have among the lowest hours worked in Europe.
(average annual hours worked per worker)
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How can she say such a thing? The ECB should never say this. We have just massively increased the risks of a euro area crisis resulting from
#Covid19
shock. OMG. See
@Bruegel_org
of today where we said exactly the opposite.
Lagarde: We are not here to close spreads, there are other tools and other actors to deal with these issues
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A nice chart showing that real interest rates on German savings accounts have been below zero even in times of D-Mark. If you add that nominal interest is taxed, real returns were even worse. Germany's debate on ECB needs to change urgently.
Der durchschnittliche Realzins für Spareinlagen (Nominalzins minus Inflationsrate) war zu D-Mark-Zeiten (Daten von 1967 bis 1998) -0,004%. Der deutsche Sparer war also schon immer arm dran.
@SPIEGELONLINE
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There is two scandals: (1) why are Europeans unable to co-ordinate such deliveries, especially from regions where there is little threat and (2) why haven't we ordered more Patriots despite idle production capacity?
European countries, with scores of Patriots sitting idle, rebuff Kyiv’s calls for more air defence supplies as Russia bombards Ukraine’s power infrastructure
via
@ft
@ChristopherJM
@GuyChazan
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Why we need a European armament commissioner and not a defence commissioner. Resistance will be big: just like in banking union, military procurement touches a core area of national sovereignty and vested interests.
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Failing to acknowledge that substitution between sectors of economic activity will soften the blow. Instead trying to preserve the existing economic structures. What a blow to
#Ukraine
.
@BachmannRudi
Here is Scholz‘ criticism of pro-boycott economists & their models
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Die COVID Situation in China ist dramatisch. Millionen Tote sind möglich und sogar wahrscheinlich. Deutschland sollte Unterstützung mit Impfstoffen anbieten. Aus Menschlichkeit und auch aus Eigennutz. Chinas Situation wird uns über wirtschaftliche und Gesundheitskanäle betreffen
⚠️THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of 🇨🇳 & 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start—🧵
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Great to see this EU inititative: EU plans joint navy patrols to combat Russian spy ships
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@AnnaDi_Mario
@jimbrunsden
@CBeaune
I propose Latin. It's most precise in its grammar and we would all have to study a lot.
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2) European unity is a German priority. Any trade coercion against one member of
#EU
is an attack against the entire single market.
3) third message is to businesses travelling with him: do contingency planning for geopolitical escalation. Reduce strategic &critical dependencies.
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So Germany' federal budget plan is to spend 470bn in 2025, after 476,8 in 2024. A real spending drop of 18bn assuming 2.4% inflation in 2024.
Dafür, dass von einem Sparhaushalte die Rede war, kündigt die Ampel aber viele neue, wenn auch kleinteilige Maßnahmen an. Bin gespannt, wie gleich erklärt wird, wie die Lücke geschlossen wird.
Alle ersten Details zur Haushaltsreinigung hier👇 #
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Good economists like
@XSalaimartin
know little of EU law. States not regions are members of EU, leads to bad advise
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Just a reminder: climate crisis is what we really need to worry about....
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Thank you to the Belgian health service and everybody involved for getting the first Covid vaccine into my arm.
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.
@MSchularick
@Cornelia_Woll
und ich argumentieren in
@faznet
, dass Deutschland auch nach dem 24 Februar von falschen Prämissen ausging. Für die Zukunft braucht es einen nationalen Sicherheitsrat der jenseits von Ressortlogik unangenehme Szenarien plant
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Dieses Thema ist nicht verschwunden. Wir müssen in Europa ernsthaft an europäischer Verteidigung arbeiten, auch wenn Transatlantiker das schwierig finden.
Trump says Russia is not a threat, our greatest threat is our American representatives, we need to reevaluate the purpose of NATO, and most of the people in the State Dept, DOD and Intel Services need to be fired so he can put the right people in.
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Helmut
#Kohl
died (1930-2017). He will be remembered for re-unification and as the one who brought Germany in euro against much domestic opp
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excellent
🔴 UNPRECEDENTED: EU grants
#Ukraine
zero-tariff, zero-quota trade.
These measures will boost trade & keep its economy going. This is vital to win the war and recover post-war.
This shows 🇪🇺's unwavering commitment to helping 🇺🇦 in its hour of need.
👉
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I have spoken at three meetings of EU finance minister about why we need rapid advances of Capital Markets Union. Agree with
@BrunoLeMaire
"I am fed up with empty statements. We need strong decisions". EU is falling massively behind on future growth
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Horrible crimes
💬 Russia's Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova: More than 190,000 children had arrived in Russia from Donbass by early May, including about 1,200 coming from orphanages in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics.
🔗
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36% of Italian debt is held abroad. IT Banks currently hold 17%. But 36% of Italian debt is 685bn, about 3 times as large as for Greece in 2010, where the share was 74%.
This crisis falls on Italy first but all of Europe is hugely affected
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The ruling is indeed a catastrophe for the legal order of the EU.
"Today's the opening of a Pandora box. Poland will turn to this kind of argument and say: “even the Germans do it, we don’t have to obey claims of the supremacy of EU law”. This is extremely catastrophic. The ECJ must react: they can’t just let this happen" -
@prof_mayer
#BVerfG
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On the way to
@MunSecConf
with colleagues of team
@dgapev
@KiraVinke
@dschirwon
@LeonieStamm
zur Münchener Sicherheitskonferenz
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Very big problem for our European security
Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has gone public about the reduction in the supply of artillery shells to Ukraine, telling reporters that deliveries of the munitions have "really slowed down."
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Inflationsangst zu schüren funktioniert in Deutschland einfach immer. Egal was die Fakten sagen. Seit mindestens 10 Jahren höre ich das ständig, dass wir ungefähr in 1-2 Jahren die Hyperinflation haben werden.
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Excellent to see this Ukraine Support Tracker
USA is giving more than all of EU together to support Ukraine.
@kielinstitute
Welche Regierungen unterstützen die Ukraine und in welcher Form? Meine Koautoren und ich vom
@kielinstitute
haben heute den Ukraine Support Tracker (Datenbank + Papier) veröffentlicht: . Die USA sind bei weitem der wichtigste Unterstützer. Ein thread
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So, Germans apparently will be allowed to pass their summer holidays in Austria, other nationalities not.
@vonderleyen
@EU_Commission
really?
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Short thread on French military production: A substantial increase in defence procurement spending is clearly visible. The time to produce a Caesar howitzer has halfed while the output has doubled. Similar for the missile Mistrale and Rafale.
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Hätte ein schwaches Russland wirklich destabilisierende Nebeneffekte,
@ClaudMajor
? Ich denke, es hätte auch erheblichen stabilisierende Effekte in vielen Regionen in Russland und Umgebung.
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Military expenditure in percent of GDP. Germany‘s Zeitenwende is not visible in 2022 data, much in contrast to Poland for example
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Delighted to be recognised as a top 10 influencer on Europe by Table Media.
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Sanktionen wirken, aber sie werden mehr und mehr umgangen. Deswegen ist eine Verschärfung und strikte Umsetzung der Sanktionen nötig, um Russlands Kriegswirtschaft einzuschränken.
#Enforcement
wird wichtiger, wie z.B. hier:
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We may have come to the point where the EU will need to agree on treaty change.
@prof_mayer
and I will discuss the
@BVerfG
ruling today at 3pm in a live podcast for
@Bruegel_org
. Tune in.
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A terrible story for the credibility of
@eu_eeas
, in which
@mattapuzzo
of
@nytimesworld
saw internal emails asking for revisions of a report. Internal emails also warned that EU was “self-censoring to appease the Chinese Communist Party.”
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In 2011, at the height of the debt crisis, Ursula von der Leyen called for a political union - and was opposed by much of CDU. Also called for "European army". She is a classic pro-European German federalist.
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630bn US Dollars of reserves. Much of it is now outside Putin's control thanks to Western sanctions.
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Delighted that
@ScienceMagazine
published our letter arguing that an EU tariff on Russian oil and gas can cut Putin's energy rent while minimising the impacts on the European economy. 🧵/ 1
@Bruegel_org
@Harvard
@OSW_eng
@UniCologne
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The Bruegel director's term is limited to 9 years.
@Bruegel_org
board has started the search for my succession. My term ends June 2022. Find out more:
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Kein leichtes Umfeld für einen Wissenschaftler in Österreich. Lieber
@GFelbermayr
, volle Unterstützung aus Berlin.
Das ist halt nicht neu in Österreich. Wer Fachmann ist und sagt, was einer Regierung nicht passt, wird halt desavouiert. Er ist klug, kann erklären und macht konkr. Vorschläge
Warum die Regierung mit Wifo-Chef Gabriel Felbermayr hadert via
@DiePressecom
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