Ludwig Straub
@ludwigstraub
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Wrapping up my first year PhD course today. Had a great time with incredible students! As a huge fan of using flowcharts to represent models (you should try it too it's addictive!), I created one for the textbook New-Keynesian model 🤓
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Recent inflation and consumer spending numbers have remained strong. Why?
One idea that people seem to dismiss somewhat: Excess savings
“It’s been two years since Biden’s stimulus, everybody already spent it”
A short 🧵 on why that is the wrong way of thinking about it... 1/N
Inflation firmed and consumers stepped up spending in January, likely leaving the Federal Reserve on track to keep raising interest rates
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1/N
My very first thread! ... I’d like to use it to explain some new work.
Let’s start with a thought experiment: Say all US household debt was refinanced to a 1% lower rate. Would it have an impact on the economy?
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So happy and honored to be among this year's
@SloanFoundation
Research Fellows! Thank you to my wonderful collaborators, colleagues, and mentors!
We have today announced the names of the 2024 Sloan Research Fellows! Congratulations to these 126 outstanding early-career researchers:
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Couldn’t be happier about this!! Thanks to the AQR Institute at
@LBS
and to everyone who supported me over the last few years!
Congratulations to
@ludwigstraub
, winner of the AQR Asset Management Institute Young Researcher Award 2022. These awards recognise talented new academics producing impactful research in the field of
#AssetManagement
. Read more:
#MonetaryPolicy
#Research
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Are you a 2nd yr grad student in econ interested in recent advances in HANK models? Solution methods, fiscal & monetary policy, open economy, estimation? This may be for you 🙂
@a_auclert
, Matt Rognlie and I are running a 3 day workshop at
@nberpubs
in June. Details 👇 Please RT!
Call for Applications: Graduate Student Workshop on Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomics. To be held in-person, assuming public health conditions permit, June 6-8, '22, Cambridge, MA. Applications due no later than 11:59 pm (EST) Monday, February 28, 2022.
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What a lovely day this would have been to have the AEAs in Boston...
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Matt Rognlie teaching 35 amazing students how to solve for the dynamics of heterogeneous agent models at our
@nberpubs
het agent macro workshop this morning!
@a_auclert
@BardoczyBence
Michael Cai
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Come to our heterogeneous-agent macro workshop in Frankfurt this year! Hosted at the wonderful Goethe University. All the details are below👇
I am delighted to announce the Goethe Macro Training School Workshop on Heterogeneous-Agent Macroeconomics on June 24-26, 2024, in Frankfurt (Germany).
Instructors:
@a_auclert
@rognlie_matthew
@ludwigstraub
.
Link to call for applications:
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How does it stop?
One very natural way: Money is earned more and more by richer people who spend it less and less (lower MPCs).
@a_auclert
Matt Rognlie and I call this the “Trickling Up” effect.
The stimulus slowly trickles up the wealth distribution, where it remains. 4/N
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(Toy) models are elaborate stories. Here is the story underlying our recent research, without any math. Maybe it gets you to view the world in a slightly different light :)
What is saving?
The number we "save" in our bank account out of the pay-check is just that - a number in a computer
Our hope when we save is that the number means something. But that cannot be taken for granted
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Some new work on heterogeneous-agent models in an open economy setting. Took us a while to finish it, but finally the draft is out: 👇
The rise in import prices after a depreciation can cause a contraction in a Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian open economy model due to households’ high marginal propensity to consume, from Auclert, Rognlie, Souchier, and
@ludwigstraub
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How long does the sloshing last before it trickles up to the top 1%? In a recent *very short* paper, we explore this idea.
5/N
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If you read a paper today, make it this one👇
Inflation, what is its most proximate cause? What is the right general framework to think about this messy phenomenon?
Very excited to put out this new paper exploring a generalized "conflict" perspective as the right answer.
Paper here:
🧵a thread...
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It really hurts that Alberto is no longer with us. His office was right next door to my own. Let me share one of the many memories of him I will carry around with me ...
Ciao, Alberto.. Remembering Alberto Alesina's research, contributions, and life with
@EliasPapaioann2
at
@voxeu
(
@HKS
@Harvard
@Unibocconi
)
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Congratulations to Ludwig Straub and Robert Ulbricht for having received the 2020 Young Researcher Award.
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We find that the *first round* spending (“partial equilibrium”) only takes 3 quarters!
Captures the intuition that most Americans spent their Covid money by 2021. But the trickling up only begins then...
It's so slow that it takes 5 years (!) for excess savings to trickle up! 6/N
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I had the pleasure of organizing a session on aggregate demand in networks, today 12.15 Eastern, with the fabulous
@jensqu4r3d
, Christina Patterson and
@DBaqaee
. I will share some preliminary work with Asger Andersen, Emil Toft Hansen, Kilian Huber, Niels Johannesen... Join us!
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Exactly the prediction coming out of my paper with
@VeronicaGuerri7
@IvanWerning
@guido_lorenzoni
: What looked like a supply shock initially can morph into a demand shock, as financially affected workers won't spend. Despite ~0 risk of infection. Slides:
Will the pandemic add to the global savings glut?
There is a hint in this report from
@KeithBradsher
that Chinese households now want more precautionary savings
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9/N
For more details on all of this, see our recent paper on ‘indebted demand’ 👇
Paper:
Slides:
Youtube talk:
@virtualmacrosem
(incl. Covid discussion after 45 mins)
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This is an important thread: This crisis is different from earlier ones because the rich are cutting back on spending massively, and are less exposed to the shock, thus saving more. Maybe helps explain why asset prices recovered so quickly?
Is Covid amplifying the Saving Glut of the Rich and its associated issues for the overall economy? Some thoughts on recent empirical economics research on Covid. 1/N
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Tomorrow (April 1) is the last day to apply to the "heterogeneous agent macro in the sequence space" EABCN training school in Mannheim, June 15 - 17. Details 👇
Hope to see you there!
Thanks to
@klaus_adam
for the initiative behind this!
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8/N
What can be done?
(1) Redistribution: progressive income or wealth tax.
(2) Address structural problems leading to high inequality, e.g. inequality of opportunity.
(3) Re Covid, fix the health crisis first! But pay for gov’t debt by taxing the have’s, not the have-not’s.
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No!
What happened with the money that was spent?
One person’s spending is another person’s income … So your stimulus check gets spent again...and again...etc. This way the Covid stimulus can slosh around the US economy for a very long time, raising demand and inflation. 3/N
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Thanks for sitting through both papers :) Hope you got something out of them! Definitely thanks for your excellent questions on both.
And now
@ludwigstraub
's second paper of the day at Jackson Hole. I'm not sure when someone last had two papers there.
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If you are curious about the analytical details, see the paper here:
We also have a beautiful Jupyter notebook that allows you to play around with the model yourself, change the calibration, etc...
8/N
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Deadline for our heterogeneous agent workshop is today !! 23:59 ET... See link below 👇 A few of my personal highlights of our workshop ... a mini 🧵... 1/5
🚨 Heterogeneous-agent macro workshop 🚨 Are you a macro graduate student interested in heterogeneity in macro, monetary policy, and/or fiscal policy?
@BardoczyBence
,
@ludwigstraub
, Matt Rognlie and I are organizing a workshop for you this summer:
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12/N
All this is related to great work by many scholars in
#econtwitter
! Tiny sample:
Debt:
@ProfGreenwald
@VeronicaGuerri7
@guido_lorenzoni
@EmilVerner
@MSchularick
@kuhnmo
@alpsimsek_econ
@monacelt
@GautiEggertsson
@paulkrugman
@BIS_org
@michaelxpettis
@AdairTurnerUK
@JoeVavra
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Very excited to present this still very young new project! Thanks to the
#OIFM
team for inviting me. You can sign up here: Looking forward to your comments tomorrow!
Tomorrow! Slight correction:
@ludwigstraub
will be presenting "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates with Heterogeneous Agents: Resurrecting the Real Income Channel" joint with Matt Rognlie & Adrien Auclert
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Apply to our het agent workshop this June !! Details here: 👇
🚨 Heterogeneous-agent macro workshop 🚨 Are you a macro graduate student interested in heterogeneity in macro, monetary policy, and/or fiscal policy?
@BardoczyBence
,
@ludwigstraub
, Matt Rognlie and I are organizing a workshop for you this summer:
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Can we shorten this? Yes!
Inflation itself slowly erodes the real value of excess savings.
The gov can use higher tax revenue to “mop up” some excess savings by reducing debt (similar to nice work by Angeletos
@ChenLian92
@ChristianKWolf
).
The Fed can push rates higher. 7/N
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Our paper benefited from great work by:
@FlorinBilbiie
@gprimice
:
Aladangady Cho
@laurafeiveson
Pinto:
Farhi
@IvanWerning
:
@christianbaye13
@bornecon
@RalphLuet
Mueller:
9/N
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2/N
First, we look at who *holds* household debt in their portfolios. Recent work with
@AtifRMian
and
@profsufi
shows it’s mostly pension funds, time deposits of big corp's, foreign central banks & investment funds. These funds & their owners have a very high propensity to save!
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Brilliant thread that explains why sovereign debt restructuring for emerging markets is key to avoid weak demand going forward, incl. for advanced economy produced goods & services.
Good article on sovereign debt restructurings. We should recognize that countries struggling to repay debts are also countries struggling to pay for imports, and the more they do of the former, the less of the latter. In fact the...
via
@financialtimes
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@gchodorowreich
and I are looking for a pre-doc that would work closely with us at Harvard! If you're excited about macro research, consider applying at the link below 👇 Please RT!
@econ_ra
#EconTwitter
Professors
@gchodorowreich
and
@ludwigstraub
are hiring a pre-doc in macroeconomics. Apply below!
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5/N
(2) That very argument however also implies that those greater debt levels *require* lower interest rates, or else they would harm demand! In other words, greater debt levels *force* central banks’ hands: They can no longer raise rates without sacrificing aggregate demand!
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7/N
This is, in my view, where many advanced economies are right now. Debt levels are at all time highs, interest rates at (close to) all time lows. With Covid, these trends will only accelerate, all but guaranteeing a long life close to, or at, the ZLB.
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6/N
(3) Now imagine debt is so high that interest rates can no longer fall sufficiently, e.g. due to the ZLB (currency union similar). Then the economy enters a persistent state of too little demand. We call this a “debt trap”.
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Praise you don't get every day... Thank you
@paulkrugman
for reading our paper with
@VeronicaGuerri7
@IvanWerning
and
@guido_lorenzoni
and posting your comments!
Anyway, great stuff — deep thinking with immediate real-world usefulness, produced very fast. Here's to good economics in bad times 7/
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Fantastic thread summarizing our work on inequality, debt and aggregate demand.
The world economy entered the COVID-19 crisis with very low interest rates and very high debt levels, which will complicate policy efforts to boost the economy. We released two
@nberpubs
papers that address how this happened and what it means for policy (
@AtifRMian
@ludwigstraub
)
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13/13
Saving of rich:
@M_De_Nardi
@ben_moll
@GNatvik
@KarenDynan
Secular stagnation:
@LHSummers
@GautiEggertsson
@LukaszRachel
@sanjayrajsingh
@annastansbury
@Realprofneil
And lots on inequality, too! Probably forgetting many, feel free to add below!
Thanks for reading my thread!
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Maybe a bit fast, but here you can slow it down arbitrarily! Thanks so much for having us, Erik Hurst,
@GregWKaplan
@glviolante
!
Here is the great Ludwig Straub from Harvard at NBER giving a short 15m presentation of our joint work on the macro fallout and policy of COVID.
He did a great job and stayed in time!
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In 20/21, the US gov. transferred >15% of GDP to its citizens, financed by higher gov. debt. A lot of it was needed and spent with high MPCs, see eg evidence of Chetty
@nhendren82
@p_ganong
@pascaljnoel
@JoeVavra
. Boosted aggregate demand and inflation in 21.
End of story?
2/N
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Hello
#econtwitter
,
@gchodorowreich
, Emmanuel Farhi and myself are looking for an enthusiastic full-time macro pre-doc. Strong coding skills desired. Please share and apply!
@econ_ra
Details here:
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What an exceptional group of students! Definitely check out our materials below 👇
Wrapping up a fantastic 3-day session at
@nberpubs
with 40 fantastic students. The future of heterogenous-agent macro is bright!
For those who couldn’t attend, our code and lecture notes are online:
@ludwigstraub
@BardoczyBence
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Great coverage by
@martinwolf_
of our recent work on inequality and debt with
@AtifRMian
and
@profsufi
.
@martinwolf_
's insightful pieces have always been a source of inspiration to me, so it's very special to me to read him cover one of some of my own papers! Thank you!
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I know it's not where people's minds are right now, but the deadline for our HANK workshop at NBER is today! Details below 👇
Call for Applications: Graduate Student Workshop on Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomics. To be held in-person, assuming public health conditions permit, June 6-8, '22, Cambridge, MA. Applications due no later than 11:59 pm (EST) Monday, February 28, 2022.
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Link to our empirical work, referenced above on link between rising income inequality and US household debt:
Link to WSJ story mentioned above:
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... and (among many other papers) two of our own previous papers:
- a full length paper on excess savings in open economies
- our paper on fiscal policy transmission (major revision coming soon!)
Comments very welcome! 10/10
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3/N
The borrowing households on the other hand have a high propensity to spend. The 1% decline in the interest rate would tend to *boost* aggregate demand!
Thus: Aggregate demand is decreasing in debt service cost.
Why is this relevant in today’s world?
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[notation more or less like in Gali, green arrow = positive effect, red = negative, numbers are coefficients picked up in log-linearized economy, mc = real marginal cost, transmission also to first order only, i.e. no price dispersion etc] Comments welcome!
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Come see
@IvanWerning
present an update to our paper on
#Covid
with
@guido_lorenzoni
and
@VeronicaGuerri7
! Now live on
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@HellerHurwicz
@KyleHerkenhoff
@UMNews
Congratulations both! Funny that they made you wear the same shirt and sweater for the pictures.
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10/N
Among the many more things in the paper: Why borrowing to *invest* (e.g. gov’t investment) is exempt from the above problem if the investment doesn’t raise inequality (i.e. unlike some of AI or robotics?).
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@peterhtillmann
I used to spend hours on TikZ creating these flowcharts until
@IvanWerning
showed me how simple this is to do in Keynote...
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4/N
(1) When borrowing rates fall, debt can be higher without harming demand. Great! This is often used as an argument why we shouldn’t worry about debt right now.
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Starting now! Come see
@VeronicaGuerri7
present an update of our paper with
@guido_lorenzoni
and
@IvanWerning
!
Tomorrow at 12:30 PM ET, Veronica Guerrieri will join us to talk about
#COVID19
supply shocks. Register here:
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... PS: I did end up suggesting to go skiing in the White Mountains to the macro candidate, but it ended up not working with his schedule. Gladly, he accepted our offer and I'm excited to have you around soon, Adrien Bilal from
@PrincetonEcon
, after a postdoc at
@BeckerFriedman
!
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Fascinating piece by
@garyseconomics
on the likely effects of the Coronavirus recession on debt and inequality. Also found that Gary's website aligns extremely well with my own current thinking, and work with
@AtifRMian
and
@profsufi
. Check it out!
I made millions out of the last debt crisis. Now the wealthy stand to win again | Gary Stevenson
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Nice coverage of our paper by
@gavyndavies
!
The FT’s
@gavyndavies
writes about our paper in “The deflation threat from the virus will be long lasting”
@VeronicaGuerri7
@guido_lorenzoni
@ludwigstraub
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Slight correction to the slight correction 😉 The project is joint with Matt Rognlie &
@a_auclert
*and* a fantastic graduate student
@Stanford
, Martin Souchier!
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Interessanter Thread,
@christianbaye13
. mE sind zwei Elastizitäten wichtig. Die intertemporale (wie leicht lässt sich der Energiekonsum einfach auf später verschieben) und die intratemporale (wie leicht lässt sich der Energiekonsum heute mit Konsum anderer Güter substituieren).
die genutzt werden können, um, basierend auf vergangenem Konsum, an Haushalte zurückzuverteilen. Dann bleibt Nachfrage im Inland.
Was übersehe ich? Ehrliche Frage an den Experten
@ludwigstraub
CC:
@ben_moll
@BachmannRudi
@econ_stardust
@bornecon
@RalphLuet
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@teasri
@DominikLeusder
@TheStalwart
@profsufi
@AtifRMian
@M_C_Klein
@michaelxpettis
Here is a simpler version of
@teasri
's r - Y plot that we found to describe 'indebted demand' quite well in our work. Basically demand slopes down in debt service cost r * debt. If debt is high, r must fall. Impossible at ZLB, so we get stuck.
6/N
(3) Now imagine debt is so high that interest rates can no longer fall sufficiently, e.g. due to the ZLB (currency union similar). Then the economy enters a persistent state of too little demand. We call this a “debt trap”.
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'The White Mountains?' And immediately he laughed at (& with) me saying '*That* is not where you go skiing my friend! You are *never* going to hire him if you take him skiing there'.
His laughter, his jokes, his passion for both econ and life outside econ will be missed soo badly
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... but the *by far* best part of the entire workshop ... are YOU: We're getting an absolutely amazing group of students together, are going to have tons of fun learning and hanging out!
Don't miss our deadline tonight and do let any of us know of you have any questions! 5/5
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Hands down one of the best run hybrid conferences I've been to, by
@jialanw
, Scott Baker, and Steve Zeldes. See here for videos + a summary thread:
Quick recap thread of the NBER Household Finance conference on transaction data. 💡
Program:
The stream will be live for another 10 days or so - catch it while it lasts! 👇🏽👇🏽
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@wdiamond_econ
@arpitrage
@Simon_Mongey
How about rising inequality => falling r* + rising asset prices + rising wealth inequality, amplified by nice recent work of
@ProfGreenwald
,
@matteoleombroni
,
@HannoLustig
,
@SVNieuwerburgh
=> bottom 90 borrowed against rising asset prices?
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@serdarozkanEN
@AtifRMian
@profsufi
Thanks Serdar! That's very interesting. As long as ZLB not binding, house prices would actually increase the smaller r* is, thus allowing more borrowing as documented by
@MSchularick
@kuhnmo
. At ZLB, you're exactly right, there house prices fall, worsening the recession!
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@p_ganong
Great Q. Imagine we can "identify" excess savings purely based on deviation from pre Covid trend in net worth by group of households (not just liq. assets). Extreme but let's start there. Then you could see trickling up by movement of excess savings distribution to the rich.
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Great thread!
Some people I talk to still seem a bit at sea on the economics of the pandemic, the role of government aid, etc. So a few notes inspired by Guerrieri et al but less technical 1/
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Then, we learn how to literally *draw* models as DAGs 🤯 See here for two HANK models, one for monetary policy, one for fiscal policy (can you guess which is which?) ... 3/5
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@MalmbergSelma
@a_auclert
@BardoczyBence
Thank you for the kind words, Selma! It was great to have you there!
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Must-read thread and paper for anyone interested in household debt!
The consequences of the
#covidcrisis
are the macroeconomic topic of the day. Many observers & researchers compare the situation to the global financial crisis of 2008. A key difference is the large rise of household debt & asset prices that pre-dated the financial crisis. 1/17
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First, we start from scratch: the basic *standard incomplete markets* model. We go through all the tricks you can use to solve this model very quickly ... 2/5
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@SVNieuwerburgh
@PorzioTommaso
@Simon_Mongey
@wdiamond_econ
@arpitrage
@ProfGreenwald
@matteoleombroni
@HannoLustig
To reconcile: Our paper focuses on saving. But demographics plausibly has effects on investment as well (e.g. if population growth rate falls), through which it can reduce the natural rate.
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@p_ganong
@arindube
@IvanWerning
@Claudia_Sahm
@SorryToBeKurt
@yfatihkarahan
Rohan's JMP seems relevant here . Also
@R2Rsquared
's work with Alisdair McKay.
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@HannesMalmberg1
Ha, that's a good question! There is probably a "causal" way of drawing arrows, but then I would have lots of market clearing conditions there that need to be solved out :) The W/P here is basically a solved out labor market clearing condition...
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@mdoepke
@ulbricht_robert
Thank you, Matthias! Probably fair to say that without you, neither of us would be where we are today... 🙏
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@janschymik
Great Q. Not in the paper. Whether there is a difference pandemic vs not comes down to whether MPCs are different during pandemic vs not, and whether monetary response is different. MPC evidence seems similar, but monetary response may have been stronger outside pandemic.
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@FlorinBilbiie
@DBaqaee
@LucaFornaro3
@FZanettiOxford
@lorenzarossi3
@chrisedmond
@virgiliu79
@Basile_G
Thanks for the great thread, Florin! Looking forward to reading the paper. Also cc'ing
@IvanWerning
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Just this past job market season, we made an offer to a brilliant young macroeconomist. In the hallway, we debated over how to make his second visit more exciting. Being an incompetent but eager skier myself, I floated the idea of taking him for day trip to go skiing...
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@m_maggiori
@WenxinDu
@HannoLustig
@MukhinDA
@fdhassan
@twilliams8
@BPellegrino_UMD
@RichRHC
@VStavrakeva
@FedericoHuneeus
@Federomei1
Thanks for this, Matteo! Very generous of you!
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... because, why not ?? Alberto must have heard, since at that moment he came zooming out of his office, asking me in a half-surprised half-joking kind of way: 'Where would you take him skiing around here??' I should have known what was about to come but naively I just replied..
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Very important thread on sustainability of US government debt.
(1/N)
How bad is the US debt and deficit situation? A Serious Question for Twitter
by
@ProfJAParker
MIT and NBER
Abstract: Debt and deficits are huge and the Fed is hiding funding costs. Is the US already unable to finance itself?
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@SakiBigio
Great Q. I haven't done the math here but my sense is if the increased stimulus was totally inflated away already, debt / GDP should effectively be back to pre-Covid levels. It has declined recently but not that much yet. So from that angle, real excess savings still seem > 0.
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@pontus_rendahl
@AmbrogioCB
@SedlacekPe
@td_econ
@drewkoke
@_LukasFreund_
@Wouter_Den_Haan
Happy birthday,
@Wouter_Den_Haan
!!
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Grob gesprochen, wenn intertemporal > intratemporal ist, wird Nachfrage im Schnitt in die Zukunft verschoben. (Caveat: Mit Einkommenseffekten kann sich das etwas verschieben.)
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We use the DAGs to code up models, just like building LEGOs: first get all our "blocks" done, then connect them!
We do this in *hands-on* live-coding tutorials, e.g. here examples on fiscal & monetary policy in closed economies. We also do open economy & discrete choice... 4/5
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