Victorian Labor Kicks The Group Ticket Can Down The Road #springst

@ELON_IS_BATMAN Thankyou!

@jamesleppik Doesn't by itself explain losing a seat with a 12% buffer.

@StevePHolland Ta!

@neovlrnt In Tas I sort-of am, such as that is. It's quite common for strangers to stop me in the street with questions about elections.

@22Donovanwillis 65% is not the final turnout, it will be around low 70s. It was low 80s last time. It's not massively different.

@TimRichardsonMP Thankyou!

@MyoneKate @lion_rob60825 @MoiraDeemingMP Didn't happen

@Grints77 @XisCancer88 @Standup_global No they didn't

@realrohbags @FreedmFightr1 Not correct.

@notcherylkernot Ta!

@doumamai ta! Makes me nervous when my projection is such a massive outlier but I checked it over and over to be sure I wasn't wrong.

@menziesburner @Cadeyrnn Just saw this, don't know what this is yet. Some model?

@RicksPlanet @JohnThomasPhoto Prahran has low turnout naturally (82.7% in 2022). Turnout in by-elections tends to be down on general elections normally, but especially if one major party isn't contesting.

@JohnThomasPhoto @RicksPlanet Turnout figure is not final yet though non-voting in Prahran could end up close to 30%.

That's not to say Lupton voters tended to normally be Libs - corellation <> causation (and it isn't statistically significant anyway). But the idea that large chunks of the Labor vote just flipped over to this guy who was now dissing their party - nope.

@tweetbix @totimothy1 Turnout figures are not final til all the votes are counted, both have several percent still to add, mostly postals.