@vonkittenmask Tipping it may end up like 1993 where Labor spent the whole campaign behind, due to the recession we had to have, until the day where they won easily. Or 1999 Victorian Election where Labor were so far behind it was ridiculous only to win in minority.

@Observer90210 @KosSamaras The reason is where the money goes. That's the only thing bookies go by. It's the least reliable way of judging anything. I've made money betting on elections more easily than betting on horses due to betting companies having no idea.

@gglovechild We were behind long before that. LNP policy of low wages contributed to that. Certainly, won't be fixed in a hurry. They started the inflation cycle. 6.1% and the first interest rate rise. Inflation went up by 1.7 % more the next couple of qtrs before coming down. Damage was done

@abcnews get the by-elections right. Libs were poor too in Werribee. Labor lost 16% primary, big state protest vote, BUT the Libs only gained 3%. Labor voters, with no candidate, had no need to vote in Prahran, turnout 10000 down. Big number of preferences lost for the Greens

@ruch_the1 Not in the slightest. Seats mean something in a close Federal election unlike State by-elections where the Govt has a thumping majority. Labor voters will tactically vote Teals to keep the Libs out as that did in 2022.

@GregWithers3 @KosSamaras Nup, many will tactically vote Teals Federally to keep the Libs out. Unlike the by-elections Seat numbers mean something Federally. In Prahran, Labor felt why waste the money on a candidate in a by-election. It's not cheap.

@7NewsMelbourne Libs won in Prahan only due to Labor voters staying home and not voting. Alot less preference votes for the Greens. Turnout was 10,000 down on 2022. If Labor field a candidate, then the Libs comfortably get beaten.

@7NewsMelbourne Lib primaries were only 3% higher in Werribee than 2022. Massive protest vote against State Labor that mostly went everywhere but to the Libs. No good news for them either. Not a good sign going forward. Labor gets half of it back next election.

@kevinbonham Sounds like Labor voters stayed home. May have cost the Greens the seat.

@SkyNewsAust Greens lost due to Labor voters not turning out as they had no candidate. Turnout was 10,000 lower than 2022. That 1000s of preferences the Greens didn't get. Greens primaries down. Federally they stink. Can't vote no to important Housing Bills for silly reasons and not cop it.

@SkyNewsAust Re: Werribee. Didn't go to the Liberals either. They gained just a few percent of primaries. Independents and minor Parties got 42% combined. Both Parties got nothing out of that. for Labor just a big, state protest vote, get half of that back, Libs got nothing at all. Bad sign.

@CoxKezza @SkyNewsAust Idiot!

@WayneReardon @SkyNewsAust Be 9% 2PP. Massive state protest vote. Libs gained just a few percent of primaries and only got to 29% themselves. Vote went to minor Parties/Independents. Labor get half of that back at an election, which won't be the same state massacre. Worry for Dutton there. No votes there.

@Valentine161034 @SkyNewsAust Labor toast? Not on that. Was just a big state protest vote. Libs still couldn't get to 30%. Labor lost 5800 votes, Libs just got 2100 of it. No votes for Dutton there. As for Prahran, Labor voters didn't turn out, which was 10,000 down. 8000 preferences the Greens didn't get.

@VicIndyMovement @KosSamaras Green have declined since they kept voting no, federally, on important housing bills for very silly reasons. Labor will get the seat of Griffith back at the federal election. Max Chandler-Maher got too big for his boots and appeals to no-one.

@KosSamaras Libs primary vote only increased by 2100 votes while Labor lost 5800 votes. Same number of voters, high 42,000s. They hit Labor with a big protest vote, vote will be higher at the election, but didn't want to know about the Libs still. Neither Party got anything out of that.

@kevinbonham Looking at the last election Labor dropped 5800 primary votes but the Libs only increased their primary by 2100. Same number of voters, high 42000s. Labor copped the big protest vote, but they didn't want to know about the Libs.

@KosSamaras They want to send a big protest vote and a message, which happens in by-elections, but they don't want the LNP to win either.

@misskinetic @KosSamaras @susan_taylor07 Then you would have a seat winner with less than 30% of the vote. Be ridiculous. Preferential voting provides a majority. It's not that hard to work out.