GrossBit, the Golden Blob
@gross_bit
Followers
5,860
Following
321
Media
337
Statuses
7,393
Derivatives Trader since 1995. Full time Crypto Trader since 2015. LONG AND STRONG. Crypto coins are perpetual calls on human greed.
Asia. Discord. Reddit
Joined November 2019
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
FAYE YOKO IN HONGKONG
• 206383 Tweets
taeil
• 137072 Tweets
台風の影響
• 126820 Tweets
SHOCK
• 97594 Tweets
#ドッカンバトル
• 78862 Tweets
あくあ色
• 73272 Tweets
#湊あくあ卒業ライブ
• 64525 Tweets
ムアラニ
• 59179 Tweets
コンクリ事件
• 56008 Tweets
ブルプロ
• 33561 Tweets
カチーナ
• 32075 Tweets
BBドバイ
• 30750 Tweets
cover song by zeepruk
• 30002 Tweets
TG Omori
• 16111 Tweets
#映画ふれる
• 13141 Tweets
卒業撤回
• 10902 Tweets
ENA is not a DeFi token. It’s a CeFi token of an unregulated Hedge Fund doing basis arbitrage.
As a basis arbitrager myself I am biased and am not happy about a a new 2 billion and growing competitor but here is my take:
25
74
429
That tweet from
@carolinecapital
has been deleted
as well as its retweet from
@SBF_FTX
looks like the bid at 22$ also has been deleted.
the bid for BNB at 340$ is still there.
19
30
239
My take is the absolute opposite of Hayes. In futures market, net/net MM/arbs must be on one side and specs on the other. At first glance his reasoning is correct except that this time futures are discounted because pros are short futures to play the fork “dividend”
(1/x)
2/ The curve is in backwardation, that is futures < spot, out until Jan '23. My guess is because traders are hedging out $ETH exposure pre-merge just in case ... tech is hard.
21
18
329
5
22
213
@ki_young_ju
thank you for confirming that at 32K while you've been tweeting onlyup bullish stuff from 60K down to here..
14
6
137
Fundamentals: why i'm a huge skeptic in tokenomics.
I don't believe the main value lie in protocols I think it lies in apps and is brought by providers of services.
In the case of DeFi, providers of (market-making) liquidity or those lending their balance sheet.
(1/n)
19
8
97
CME longs closing their positions and dumping
it was 120K BTC on Dec9th (DEC+JAN) , dropped to 100K BTC... currently 25% of OI is on JAN.
looks we need to drop a bit more because not everything is being be rolled over. The monthly roll cost 1.15%
8
8
93
FTT lost 20% since the beginning of the month against BTC, whereas most alts are way up. we know the FUD. its being seriously dumped with 2 waves of selling bringing hourly RSI below 20 twice with little liquidity...
(1/x)
4
12
93
What will the actual ETF launch look like when/it happens ?
I can only guess. But on this BTC launch I think the big names have been putting their names on the table.
When Wall Street underwrites a big deal, ICO or bond issue … they ensure the deal goes all right (1/x)
6
18
92
I have not been involved in the ETH Merge trades at all (buying spot / selling futures). Although I'm an arbitrage trader and done this kind of trades all my life.
BCH or BSV forks were very good money makers for me.
so why didn't i go for it this time ? (1/x)
5
12
84
get ready for huge volatility on both sides.
10,000$ candles on BTC in few minutes.. you blink its 75,000$ and then its 55,000$ and then 65,000$ again... in which order it doesnt matter
5
5
70
6) the valuation of ENA is ridiculously high and based on unrealistic assumptions. I have no doubt the token will initially pump and it will absolutely dump months or years from now but
@CryptoHayes
will have dumped it all on you by then.
5
1
69
by what kind of miracle can
@carolinecapital
hedge billions in FTT while the OI in the FTT PERP contract is only 60 millions ?
- the balance sheet breaks out a few of our biggest long positions; we obviously have hedges that aren’t listed
- given the tightening in the crypto credit space this year we’ve returned most of our loans by now
430
108
1K
8
6
62
@carolinecapital
can you explain by what kind of miracle you can hedge billions in FTT while the open interest of the FTT PERP contract is only 60 millions USD ?
7
1
59
1) there is indeed very little directional risk in this arbitrage but a lot of other risks of operational nature:
Exchange risk, execution risk, collateral risk, smart contract risk, fraud risk etc…
Absolutely not worth it for me and better to keep doing it by myself.
3
3
61
look at this chart. candles is UST peg rate. orange line is BTC price, and on the chart below is the BTCUST (BTC v TerraUST) rate.
the time slot between the 2 red bars which lasted 4h30 was when UST traded below 0.75 as stated per LFG tweet (1/x)
5a/ On May 10, when $UST had fallen to $0.75, pursuant to a Master Services Agreement dated January 10, 2022 through which TFL managed & executed all finance, administrative & operational functions & support as requested,
35
98
800
2
8
57
YFI the most overhyped DEFI project and stupidly overvalued. IRL nobody is buying a HF at c.50x current profits. Todays performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
Recent YFI perf was helped by DeFi bubble and exceptional farming "yields" sponsored by stupid noob money
5
5
50
Unpopular opinion:
i don't care about EIP-1559 or Carl Icahn or what the gurus say about the future of finance
I have been selling (= taking profits) on my ETH longs and I'm not going back into it anytime soon
(1)
12
5
53
Some smart guys i talk to believe Tether has a huge exposure on FTX/Alameda based on the fact that Tether minted 37bn through them and they can’t believe with the cash crunch experienced by them that they could have all those funds delivered to Tether.
—-
IDK. DYOR
10
5
49
2) USDe is not a stablecoin but some kind of security, related to the performance of a (low market risk) unregulated hedge fund. No doubt this will get regulated out(rather) sooner or later
2
2
54
@zhusu
Q1 2021 BTC 20,000 to 65,000 more than 3x, you think we're going to have something like that again ?
3
1
52
you've not had enough of the Merge ? We've been hammered with it for months.
But now comes the Surge. The PR machine must never stop
5
5
47
what me worry ??? long puts .... short Dec Futures contango etc... up on the day despite having a core long ?? is it a miracle ??
LONG AND STRONG
i didn't even see it was at 29K, i was busy buying back my futures and all kind of arb.. longing below 36K sticking to the plan
9
2
49
i got a subliminal message from CT whales that BTC could lead the next leg up.
a nice way to express this view is to sell ETH OTM calls v buy BTC OTM calls. do it zero cost. Because ETH IV > BTC IV you can buy much more BTC calls than you sell ETH calls (1)
3
2
50
3) I remember in TradFi trying to market similar products specifically “asset swap” of US inflation bonds or Japanese floating rate bonds packaged into some SPV.
IMO it’s a real abuse to market USDe as a “stablecoin” which imply it could be used as payment or unit of value
2
1
47
Recently market not reacting too much to negative news. And there was a big whale spotted buying 500 million usd of ETH on BitFinex.
My best guess is range with upwards bias until new reg FUD coming from Europe or US coming
3
2
41
5) For those who really want extra yield I would recommend to educate themselves with the basis trade . It may take hours to weeks to understand it depending on your background. Then do it by yourself and you can control yourself all of it and earn (way) more than USDe
3
1
43
@avi_eisen
That’s what you believe but it’s market manipulation and probably will land you in jail like this guy and many other similar cases.
You should have learnt to use Google before learning to hack
4
1
36
One headline such like « Norway Sovereign Fund bought 500 millions of IBIT » and we have a 10,000$ hourly candle on BTC…
Not if but when
5
4
39
I'm farming the short ETHPERP yield on Deribit. 0.6% per day = 219% annualized. Why DeFi when CeFi ???
5
0
37
BTC funding is lowest and baseline level at Bybit and Binance. ETH edging up a little bit at Binance, still baseline at Bybit. Most alts funding quite high.
[OKX an outlier since they changed their leverage limits]
Too many retail degen traders long alts with leverage
(1/x)
9
7
36
Su Zhu is an extraordinary money manager and visionary. I never miss one of his tweets.
But don't forget he's managing a lot of money and tries to influence the market participants with his Twitter account like many others. (1)
This dump is incredibly bullish in that it has been a fast transfer of supply from the impatient to the patient, from the weak to the strong.
Revising all upward targets higher accordingly and needfully.
$BTC
58
279
2K
3
1
33
Market has changed, bull is over, at least for a while. We need to change and adapt to new market conditions to survive.
Stop listening to the peddlers.
1
3
34
reminder:
MSTR average buy price is 24,450$
TSLA average buy price is a bit higher (someone help please ?) around current price levels ?
I wonder if some HFs are smelling blood and already going after those 2, buying puts in both stocks + BTC
(1)
3
2
36
the biggest TradFi derivatives platform in the world. This is big news IMHO. if we break intraday highs, huge FOMO coming
European derivatives exchange
@EurexGroup
said it will introduce Bitcoin exchange traded note (ETN) futures to meet “significant demand from institutional investors.”
By
@Tanzeel_Akhtar
16
67
233
2
2
35
I did recently some USD transfers out of Binance to my Japanese account. I did receive the whole funds. However, technically i didn't receive them from Binance but from "Key Vision Development Limited Office", a company in Seychelles, through Signature Bank NY (1)
4
0
35
put this chart on alert.
if you see Tether market cap going below 62bn USD, and USDT starting to lose its peg, it will not be a drill this time, and things could really go - fast.
fyi I'm out of all stablecoins
15
6
34
@zhusu
fly to Seoul to arbitrage, fly back with suitcases full of cash, and get Covid in the plane
4
1
28
a long 🧵to close this year
with some random personal thoughts in no particular order
From a personal performance perspective, 2022 has not been an easy year. Because I didn't sell ALL my crypto holdings last year, and kept trash including a bunch of NFTs including my pfp
1/x
2
3
33
Reverse Tether FUD.
with 68bn $ USDT outstanding, and short term rates at 3.5% and climbing, thats more than 2bn $ (and climbing) revenue a year for them.
Whatever hole they had in their balance sheet if any, is gonna get plugged in a few weeks.
(1/2)
Beside exchanges, the most profitable business in crypto now is USD stablecoin issuer.
17
20
215
2
2
34
Ethenea is killing the business of arb traders. But without them , it’s much less liquidity on the market.
It’s up to them not to fuck up with execution else it will be a big mess on CEX .
(I would bet on them fucking up at some point and come with “we are so sorry…”)
5
2
32
BTC weekly chart: looking at volume profile, POC is 38K, thats the level where i would consider selling LT holdings some or all, especially if we get there quickly / high RSI and "nothing changes"
will depend on personal circumstances as well.
equivalent level: around 2.6K on ETH
1
1
33
4) Many things can and will go wrong with it. As with many things crypto there is little transparency and little recourse in case of an “accident”
1
0
31
fingers crossed.
it still feels like many people are on holiday. smart money is frontrunning those managers who wanted to buy crypto once back from the beach resort.
I would not be surprised to see BTC teleport up very soon. its been too slow so far
2
0
30
at that stage, i think *IF* Alameda and FTX are indeed leveraged, there is a significant probability of a death spiral which can happen in days and ofc will affect the whole market and way way worse than 3AC. Would mean fresh much lower lows and strong regulatory response. (5/x)
5
2
31
We can watch the biggest heist of all time, in plain day, LIVE on the blockchain
Whoever thinks the market is going to survive that is delusional. The regulators are going to clamp down hard.
Everything will be ultra-regulated. no-KYC wallets will be considered criminal . (1/x)
Hundreds of millions of dollars are now flowing out of FTX wallets, some speculate liquidators but it's late on a friday night, not typical times for such rapid heavy movements. Some withdrawals are being swapped from Tether to DAI. Hack or insider actions? $26 million here
968
3K
10K
2
4
32
Larry is telling you that the flight-to-quality trade is Gold and Bitcoin, and the flight-to-quality trade is happening right now.
Both assets will break multi-month (BTC 30K) and multi-year (GLD 2100$) resistance for LT rally as risk-off trade hits global equities (1/x)
JUST IN: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says crypto will play a role as a flight to quality.
521
2K
8K
2
2
30
Long ago, I got interviewed for a job at Credit Suisse. I explained my style of trading, arbitrage, relative value etc. The guy told me :
'Relative value trading is BS. its picking pennies in front of a steamroller. Its a liquidity trade, when bull ends, it always blow out' (1)
2
0
31
FOMO'ed into coins yday for the first time this year. i had finished to DCA last year with the cheapest buys at 18K BTC / 1200 ETH (started much earlier..)
i had sworn to myself to buy any serious ETF news. so forced myself to buy another clip of BTC (+ETH)
1/x
1
0
30
NFT top signal
I Fomo’ed into a very high priced rare NFT (Aurory). Sucker is in.
You’ve been warned.
3
0
29
this is a weekly (log !!) chart for FTT and its a big air pocket below 20. The CoinDesk article suggest to me Alameda could be in trouble as soon as FTT < around 15, a level under which i recommend everyone to get out first of everything of FTX exchange (4/x)
2
2
28
i sense complacency.
a lot of people seem to not care about BTC downfall but there is a wealth effect, sooner or later if BTC falls too much it will hurt even those who are underweight but still own some BTC and it will hurt even more when the rest starts going down as well.
3
1
26
seriously can anyone explain me why on Avalanche your deposit address change after each deposit ?
WTF ? I'm got "whitelist on" when i withdraw from CEX. It means everytime i need to add the new address to the whitelist (and then delete it) (1)
9
3
26
bought some disaster puts because they are cheap.
should always buy *some* options when they're cheap. if i always followed that basic rule, i'd have bought calls when we were at 30K (cope). now its all rosy, buy some puts.
its not a directional call. its called hedging. (1)
2
0
26
Our bot is now online full-size, and there's no better market or demanding market than to test it right now. and the results are astounding, its making so much money i can (almost) retire and just watch him do the trades !
it takes also lot of my time now just to monitor him (1)
4
0
28
waiting for Samaleda to explain why it was obvious and how they made so much money dumping at the highs and buying those liquidations
2
0
27
@KentoInami
That’s wrong pain trade is and always has been down. If it doesn’t hurt yet it means the market is not low enough
1
0
25
the current/next round of capitulation is not from retail traders.
its from VCs and crypto funds facing pressure from their LPs and facing redemptions. Your favorite VC influencer might still be publicly shilling but he's discreetly selling.
1
1
28
Imagine having a pfp without AI included
@AuroryProject
i don't wanna stay dumb forever
Aletheans … the moment is here!
We are proud to announce that our Token Distribution Auction to distribute the $ALI Token will begin on December 28th, 9am EST.
Read our blog to discover why this is the most fair, equitable launch for our community:
231
969
1K
1
1
26
@AutismCapital
@adlay_eth
your spreadsheet is nice but i prefer mine
As a trader, there is barely a time that you can transparently share edge, but since FTX has gone down, it is clear that this strategy is never coming back, and I thought I would share insight on how i extracted round 5000% of value from the incompetency off SBF (1/x)
340
1K
6K
5
1
27
1
0
24
second reason, its pretty clear we've been in a bear market not only in crypto but all risk assets, and i've been taught the hard way during my career to not pick pennies in front of a steamroller in this market conditions (3/x)
1
0
26
CT yesterday: bull is back ! we told you so
CT today: silence
(or is everyone celebrating England's game ?)
more seriously, should we worry how easily we got a -10% on ETH from a minor resistance
0
0
27
@FTX_Official
playing foul in this downtrade. plenty of cross exchange arb opps but they wouldn't let me withdraw. They just like as Binance Kucoin CoinList etc or other shitty exchanges
of course when the arb is closed suddenly the withdrawal goes through
Coincidence ? No way
1
3
26
please focus on survival here, do no try to be a hero...
its ok to trade but manage your risks.
i stick to my 34-36K support zone plan. seeing a little retrace in my PL but nothing too bad YET (atm). that being said, i intend to lighten at any bounce. (1)
3
3
25
if the SEC gives the green light, BlackRock markets it, it suddenly becomes ok to invest and ok to lose. and OTOH not ok to not win if everyone else is buying and winning. Different asset, different game !
They act in herds, just like crypto degens but even more size.
(13/x)
0
1
26
I've been trading markets for more than 25 years professionally and I can say i understand them. However, if i did study the basics of crypto and blockchain tech, its become way too complex for me and I won't make the effort.
Its much easier for young people to learn and
3
0
25
seeing too many "Sell-the-news" take...
BTC is gonna melt-up and shock every one. BONK and their friends might drop -50% or more, BTC doesn't care.
ETF == FED buying bonds. a huge underlying bid to the market. any wick will last only minutes.
[obviously talking my book DYOR]
3
2
25
so many liquidations already. I think we can have a limited short term relief bounce, and R/R shorting here isn't good at all, but i doubt it will be return to UP ONLY anytime soon.
It does look like its over for a big while.
1
1
24
in finance - including crypto - trust is the most important asset. by not replying to market concerns and questions from journalists, plus some polemics about DeFi regulation SBF may be about to lose it all (13/x)
2
0
24
strong evidence of rotation back into BTC. despite some significant selling of ETH/(most) alts, BTC is holding near 49K. i expect the trend to accelerate and BTC to go to 52K soon and more BTC FOMO to come.
(talking my book, obviously)
1
1
24
BTC ETF inflows and CME OI are the 2 big things to watch. If ETF inflows slow down (to say less than 100M a day) or even become negative, and CME OI starts to go down from current 32K contracts (11bn BTC equivalent at 68,000) then we teleport to 59K-61K
watch out !
2
0
25
@twobitidiot
What did you expect them to do to an industry whose supporters open goal is to disrupt the existing financial system and threaten nation-states monetary sovereignty ?
1
2
21
funding is telling us:
APR17 wave of selling = bybit & binance degens liquidated
APR23 = spot dip buyers from APR17 and early buyers from much below exiting
both those sellers aren't coming back soon (no more capital for 1st group; much lower price interest for 2nd group)
(1)
2
4
21
@zhusu
People leaving the market without fear and regret with their fiat gains are the true winners
0
1
23
not gonna lie, i'm scared on my longs. even i've done very well so far, its not a reason to stay complacent and ignore the strength of the bear momentum
4
0
24
It takes a bear market for fingers to be pointed out.
I’ve posted many times about the inanity of AMM and have personally never ever LP’ed because of IL and meager yields compared to the risks.
Same kind of remark can be done about stablecoins, yield generation
1/x
3
0
25
week-end trading is not what it used to be. In earlier days, when market was more dominated by retail, there used to be more craze and flows to take advantage of. Now market with institutional flows being more important, WE are much more quieter. we can enjoy outside.
4
1
24
@santiagoroel
You can (almost ) count me
I’ve used DeFi and I am unimpressed. I prefer trading on Centralized exchanges and earn funding arbitrage rather than risking money on DeFi with hacks bugs rugs and IL losses
4
0
24
feel a bit uncomfortable here; just bought some 1D and 2D puts. probably it will be money burnt. But with this kind of stuff, it can turn quickly into a x5 or x10 or more. Still have upside
4
0
24
It's a very sad day. I am rather naive and as a pro trader myself, I used to be a fan of SuZhu and SBF. my heroes are dead. The only heroes left for me now are Satoshi and Vitalik.
Where do we go here ? the market is in complete shambles. So much capital destroyed. (1/x)
4
1
24
This is our automated strategy PL since inception of its current and final version. $ amount of profit isn't remarkable but the risk-adjusted performance definitely is.
In TradFi, i was an old school voice trader. I always wanted to challenge the markets with this kind of stuff.
2
0
23
after a short night sleep, seeing the PA i can think of some different scenarios from total meltdown to resumption of the bull.
But in any case, i think that for a while, the pendulum has shifted in favor of BTC v the rest of the market. (1)
1
2
24
Nobody can time perfectly the top of a bubble. Believe me , this is a bubble, a huge one.
At these high levels risk is becoming more and more symmetric while in "normal" conditions, risk is always skewed to the upside in crypto.
(1)
3
6
23
a normie called me today to ask me how / where to buy SOL. Its not listed on Japanese exchanges. He never bought any crypto before.
Thats the tweet.
3
1
24
Every influencer out there giving you alpha, so to differentiate myself, i will post BETA
the "neutral" or "stupid" way to build a portfolio is to buy a bit of everything proportionally to its market cap.
currently , BTC dominance is 53% ETH17% (USDT+USDC) is 8% and alts 22%
3
1
23