Ki Young Ju
@ki_young_ju
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Founder & CEO @cryptoquant_com
NYC🗽/ Seoul 🇰🇷
Joined May 2011
SEC sues @Binance, but no major withdrawals from Binance. User balances are increasing actually.
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2021 MAY $3,160.2021 AUG $3,160.2022 JAN $3,160.2022 MAR $3,160.2022 APR $3,160.2024 MAR $3,160.2024 MAY $3,160.2024 JUL $3,160.2024 NOV $3,160.2025 JAN $3,160. $ETH is a stablecoin.
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For the past 3 hours, someone(s) just bought ~$4B worth of $BTC futures in market orders, and $87M short positions liquidated across all exchanges.
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MicroStrategy only goes bankrupt if an asteroid hits Earth. For 15 years, #Bitcoin has never dropped below the cost basis of long-term whales, which currently stands at $30K. $MSTR debt is $7B and its $BTC holdings are worth $46B. Based on BTC alone, the liq price is $16.5K.
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13k $BTC flowed out from Coinbase a few hours ago. It seems those BTC went to multiple Coinbase custody wallets. US institutional investors are still buying Bitcoin at the 48k price. This is the strongest bullish signal I've ever seen. Chart 👉
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Someone(s) bought up $1.6B worth $BTC via market orders in just 5 minutes. Short liquidations seem relatively smaller like $17M at that time. This is more like whale buying, not cascade liquidations.
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$ETH supply doesn't increase anymore. Its rate of change became almost zero after the London hard fork. Just like Bitcoin, ETH is now a scarce asset with limited supply. Source 👇.
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U.S. uses Coinbase. The world uses Binance.
Our Global Crypto Survey reveals key trends reshaping the crypto landscape. Let’s dive in 👇🧵
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This is not a short squeeze, but someone(s) is just buying $BTC a lot. I repeat. This is not a short squeeze, but someone(s) is just buying $BTC a lot.
#Bitcoin short squeeze hasn't happened. Most perpetual swap buying volume came from pure $BTC purchases, not forced short liquidations. More bullets for bulls.
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I’m not #Bitcoin maxi, but the U.S. strategic shitcoin reserve has gone too far. Just Bitcoin, please.
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Okay
Now might be a good time to consider quitting crypto
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FTX's stablecoin reserve just reached a year-low. $51M as of now. -93% over the last two weeks.
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U.S. criminal justice system works well and will put SBF in jail soon. ⓘ 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴.
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$BTC accumulation phase begins. Newbies who joined last year are evolving to long-term holders. The market cap for 6-month+ old BTC takes 52% now. It was 13% at the cyclic top. Unlikely to hit the previous low($28k) as the newbies will wait for other newbies in the next cycle.
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$BTC market is very uncertain right now. Whale selling indicates a bear/fake-bull market, and retail selling implies a bull market. We're in neutral now. Stop trade, be patient and wait for the next volatility.
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I'm pretty sure something is happening behind the scenes. 404,448 #Bitcoin have moved to permanent holder addresses over the past 30 days, and it's clearly accumulation. We'll know within a year.
#Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase. Over the past month, 358K BTC has moved to permanent holder addresses. In July, global spot ETF inflows were 53K BTC. Though not all remaining BTC is in custody wallets, whales are clearly accumulating. And it's an unprecedented level.
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Someone is buying $BTC a lot. 99% of transactions are happening outside of the exchanges. Possibly OTC deals. If big names announce their buying, bears could be in a trouble. I'm not sure about short-term price moving tho.
$131B worth of $BTC moved yesterday, but only 1% from the exchange deposits/withdrawals. Fund Flow Ratio for all exchanges hit the 2-year low. This might indicate $BTC OTC trading by big players. Chart 👉
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BlackRock's gold ETF took 20 years to reach $33B AUM, while their #Bitcoin ETF nearly doubled gold's AUM in less than a year.
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400k $ETH flowed out from Coinbase a few days ago. Speculative guess, institutions are now buying $ETH.
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$BTC whales are moving. It's the largest moving I've ever seen since 2017 excluding outliers. The average TX amount skyrocketed like 5x, and it seems most big transactions didn't come from exchanges if you see the fund flow ratio. Source 👇.
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Meme coins harm the crypto industry. It's frustrating to see billion-dollar-cap memecoins overshadow hardworking teams building legit products to advance this industry. Easy money can't drive industry-wide progress, as shown by the 2018 ICO burst.
$SLERF, one of the tokens emerging from the Solana meme coin presale mania, chalked up multiple exchange listings, a $1.7 billion trading volume and thousands of unique holders in a few hours after going live – despite a major fumble. By @shauryamalwa.
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How to buy $BTC at the global bottoms:. 1. $BTC drops hard over -30%.2. All Exchange Inflow Mean (MA7) spikes over 2.5 BTC.3. The indicator cools down.4. ALL-IN $BTC.5. Become a billionaire and give a tip to @cryptoquant_com . Chart 👉
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#Bitcoin 8-month retail shakeout. There is a saying in Korea: "The bus only departs when you get off."
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Why is altcoin season delayed?. Compared to the last cycle, the nature of capital flowing into #Bitcoin has shifted. The current Bitcoin rally is primarily driven by demand from institutional investors and spot ETFs. Unlike crypto exchange users, institutional investors and ETF
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NYSE listed the first gold ETF in Nov 2004, and the price never came back. Many economic factors have affected the gold price, but listing ETF would have played a major role in the inflow of global institutional funds. We may never see this $BTC price again once ETFs approved.
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It's a whale war, and you know who got the real power. US Institutional Investors.- Coinbase Outflow = 🟢STRONG BUY.- Coinbase Premium = 🟢BUY. BTC Whales.- BTC Reserve = 🟢BUY.- Stablecoin Inflow TXs = 🟢BUY. Miners.- Miner Outflows = 🔴 SELL.- Miner to Exchange Flows = 🔴 SELL
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#Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase. Over the past month, 358K BTC has moved to permanent holder addresses. In July, global spot ETF inflows were 53K BTC. Though not all remaining BTC is in custody wallets, whales are clearly accumulating. And it's an unprecedented level.
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"Institutions are coming.". "Whales are accumulating BTC.". "Hashrate hits the all-time high.". "Long-term holders are not selling BTC.". "Crypto has fundamentals.". Guys, these are not memes anymore unlike the 2018 bear market. It's time to take those facts seriously. NFA.
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$BTC is ready to get another leg up. A significant amount of Bitcoins has flowed out across all exchanges, weakening selling pressure. Chart👉
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If you're a long-term investor, now is the time to buy $BTC. Not sure how many corrections would be along the way, but the on-chain indicator says there are enough stablecoins in exchanges compared to Bitcoins to get another leg up. Chart 👉
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#Bitcoin is attracting $80 billion every month. Nearly half of the capital that has entered the Bitcoin market over the past 15 years was added this year. If you don’t understand what this means, you still don’t understand Bitcoin.
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Don't underestimate CZ. He deserves respect. When the intrinsic value of an industry falls short of the capital it has absorbed, society tends to view this as a "sin." In such cases, the ones labeled as sinners are those who built and participated in the industry. Society
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This alt season won't be what you expected. It's going to be weird and challenging. Only a chosen few will win the game. Market sentiment is good, but there isn't much fresh liquidity. #Bitcoin is drifting away from the crypto ecosystem. Bitcoin has built its own paper-based
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Massive Coinbase outflows. 15k $BTC at 32.4k. Looking at the TX, it went to custody wallets that only have in-going transactions. It's likely to be OTC deals from institutional investors. I believe this is the strongest bullish signal. Chart 👉
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Alt season is no longer defined by asset rotation from #Bitcoin. The surge in altcoin trading volume isn’t driven by $BTC pairs but by stablecoin and fiat pairs, reflecting real market growth rather than asset rotation. Stablecoin liquidity better explains the altcoin markets.
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I’m with Vitalik on this one, even though I think $ETH might underperform. He just chose creating value over making money. This industry is on the verge of crossing the line into a grifter’s playground under brutal capitalism. Keeping our sanity here is extremely challenging.
We are indeed currently in the process of large changes to EF leadership structure, which has been ongoing for close to a year. Some of this has already been executed on and made public, and some is still in progress. What we're trying to achieve is primarily the following.
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$BTC just broke $25k without retesting $21k.
$BTC will break $25k without retesting $21k.
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US gov't sold 4K #Bitcoin today, but less likely to impact the market. Coinbase Prime handled 20-49K BTC in sell-side liquidity daily during high spot ETF inflows and 6-15K daily during low spot ETF inflows. Posting this because I'm tired of "gov't selling" FUDs.
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The $BTC bottom is near.
How to buy $BTC at the global bottoms:. 1. $BTC drops hard over -30%.2. All Exchange Inflow Mean (MA7) spikes over 2.5 BTC.3. The indicator cools down.4. ALL-IN $BTC.5. Become a billionaire and give a tip to @cryptoquant_com . Chart 👉
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Everyone is talking about bearish things, but most of them haven't left the crypto market. They're just waiting for the bottom. #Bitcoin marketcap decreased by -70% from the top while stablecoin went down by just -11%.
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#Bitcoin is in the middle of the bull cycle. Its market cap is growing faster than its realized cap, a trend that typically lasts around two years. If this pattern continues, the bull cycle might end by April 2025.
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Imagine when SEC approves Bitcoin ETFs. US followers like Korea will approve Bitcoin ETFs, more global institutions will buy BTC, and more global financial services will launch Bitcoin funds. How much BTC price would be then?. The bull market may last longer than we thought.
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This cycle is different. Institutional funds of $86B entered the #Bitcoin market in the past 6 months.
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It seems whales move their coins from centralized exchanges to other wallets before pumping altcoins. Here's the average amount of outflows across all exchanges for $AAVE, $SUSHI, $LINK, $UNI, $BAT, and $SNX.
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🟨 Gold market cap .Before ETF in 2004: $1 Trillion.After ETF in 2021: $11 Trillion. If $10T demand came from an inflation hedge, not industrial use, this year is going to be interesting for #Bitcoin. 🪙 BTC market cap.Before ETF in 2021: $1 Trillion.
NYSE listed the first gold ETF in Nov 2004, and the price never came back. Many economic factors have affected the gold price, but listing ETF would have played a major role in the inflow of global institutional funds. We may never see this $BTC price again once ETFs approved.
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I admit my mistakes on the wrong prediction. It was so wrong. I was a permabull when $BTC hit the all-time high. But I want to say the goal of my tweet is to show how to use data. From now on, I'll more focus on data insights. Hope you do your own research before place bets.
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Miners keep holding $BTC. Bitcoins periodically sent to exchanges from miners are decreasing. Chinese regulations can force miners to sell their rigs but not Bitcoin. (Disclaimer: I'm not a Bitcoin maxi)
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Another institutional buying at 48.6k.
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Same vibe on #Bitcoin as mid-2020. Back then, $BTC hovered around $10k for 6 months with high on-chain activity, later revealed as OTC deals. Now, despite low price volatility, on-chain activity remains high, with $1B added daily to new whale wallets, likely custody.
The number of #BTC transferred hits the year-high, and those TXs are not from exchanges. Fund Flow Ratio of all exchanges hits the year-low. Something's happening. Possibly OTC deals.
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There are many institutional investors who bought $BTC at the 30-32k level. The Coinbase outflow on Jan 2nd was a three-year high. Speculative guess, but if these guys are behind this bull-run, they'll protect the 30k level. Even if we have a dip, it wouldn't go down below 28k.
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Two years ago today, #Bitcoin was priced at $16K. Back then, the market was drained, the economy was tough, and fears of a prolonged recession were everywhere. If you’ve held onto Bitcoin through it all, you’re incredible. Cheers to all the diamond hands! 💎🙌
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Institutions are no longer aggressively shorting #Bitcoin. CME futures net positions have declined by 75% over the past 5 months.
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Isn't it illegal?. 1/ FTX allows withdrawals only for TRX & TRC20. 2/ Users exchange assets to TRX to request withdrawals. 3/ TRX price goes up like 50x in FTX. 4/ Justin deposits TRX into FTX and sells them. 5/ FTX users sell TRX in other exchanges with a significant loss.
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@elonmusk Twitter just beat Instagram and took over 4th rank in global traffic. The next target is Facebook.
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In the last #Bitcoin halving cycle, the bull rally began in Q4. Whales won't let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance.
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Whale Observation:. Whales seem to punt a long position by sending $BTC to derivatives exchanges from other exchanges when the price is at the bottom. Each time this indicator hit the peak, the funding rate across all exchanges gets neutral. Chart 👉
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Fresh capital is fueling #Bitcoin. As the realized cap grew, the ceiling price increased from $129K to $146K in 30 days. At $102K, it's far from a bubble—it would need a 43% surge to hit the threshold often considered a bubble.
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@cz_binance @binance Been tracking Binance's wallets for four years. They have already been 99% transparent with a couple of cold/hot wallets, while other exchanges mix up clients' assets with third-party wallets like MMs. Now they got 100% transparency. This is what the industry leader does.
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This #Bitcoin bull cycle might turn out to be the longest ever. New liquidity sources are steadily fueling the market, and more are waiting to be unlocked.
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Most #Bitcoin cyclic indicators are saying the bottom. Not sure how long it would take for consolidation in this range tho. Opening a big short position here sounds not a good idea unless you think that $BTC is going to zero. Live Dashboard 👇.
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Hey bears, I'm sorry, but #Bitcoin is still in the middle of the bull cycle.
#Bitcoin is in the middle of the bull cycle. Its market cap is growing faster than its realized cap, a trend that typically lasts around two years. If this pattern continues, the bull cycle might end by April 2025.
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Coinbase premium turned to positive. They're coming.
Another significant Coinbase outflows at 48k. US institutional investors are still buying $BTC. I think the major reason for this drop is the jittering macro environment like the 10-year Treasury note, not whale deposits, miner selling, and lack of institutional demand.
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This is a pretty rare bullish signal. Might be OTC deals for institutional investors. $ETH.
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Memecoin dominance in alt markets is declining. CT would be shifting from gambling to focusing on fundamentals, similar to a few years ago. Pack it up lads, it’s over.
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If you are not an insider, keep your eyes on data to see how front-runners behave:. 1/ $1.6B-worth $BTC buying in 5 mins.2/ $186B-worth $BTC moved on the network (not from exchanges, highly likely OTC deals).3/ #Bitcoin futures premium on CME surges. Fit puzzle pieces together.
Before investing in a fund that holds Bitcoin futures contracts, make sure you carefully weigh the potential risks and benefits. Check out our Investor Bulletin to learn more: .
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This is another indicator I'm patiently waiting for cooling off to punt 10x long at $BTC bottom. Chart 👉
How to buy $BTC at the global bottoms:. 1. $BTC drops hard over -30%.2. All Exchange Inflow Mean (MA7) spikes over 2.5 BTC.3. The indicator cools down.4. ALL-IN $BTC.5. Become a billionaire and give a tip to @cryptoquant_com . Chart 👉
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Binance:.Processing deposits and withdrawals for billions of dollars of crypto assets every day. WSJ: .Traders are pulling billions of dollars from @binance . People:.Bank run on Binance.
Traders are pulling billions of dollars from Binance as problems plaguing the world’s largest crypto exchange continue to mount
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#Bitcoin market seems too early to call a bubble. The market cap hasn’t increased significantly relative to cumulative on-chain capital inflows. Based on the current realized cap, it could rise to $141K. The realized cap has been steadily increasing every day.
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This $BTC correction is more like a technical correction, and the fundamentals are still strong. US institutional demand has driven this bull market. There's no change in this trend. Predicting a short-term move became hard due to derivative markets and altcoin season tho.
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Last year, $379B entered the market based on realized cap—roughly $1B per day. The U.S. govt selling $6.5B could be absorbed in just a week. Do not panic.
*DOJ CLEARED TO SELL $6.5B IN SEIZED SILK ROAD BITCOIN: OFFICIAL.
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Coinbase Premium hit the all-time low -$1020 and then skyrocketed +$486. Remember who's driving the market. Coinbase whales have been accumulating $BTC in 44-48k range. Even if there are more corrections, it's unlikely to go down below 44k. Chart👉
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Fun Fact: This person mined 150 #Bitcoin valued at $0.13, held for 13 years, then sold for $6.5 million, yielding a 5,019,590,600% profit.
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Do not sell your #Bitcoin. We’ve hit a new ATH, breaking one of the biggest psychological resistance levels and entering price discovery. I repeat, DO NOT SELL YOUR BITCOIN.
And then, I opened a generational long at $17K, planning to pass it to my grandson. My biggest regret is closing it too early—I’ve learned that traders often read the market well but tend to act too quickly. Maybe bear market callers now fit that mold.
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#Bitcoin whales opened giga long positions at $29k.
Pro-tip: To spot old whales' giga long/short positions, focus on low-volume derivative exchanges. 1/ Huobi whale: longed at $16,819.
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285 days have passed in 2024. If there is no #Bitcoin bull market within the next 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways in a halving year in history.
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59,151 $BTC just unpegged from BTCB and flowed into Binance. BTCB is the Bitcoin-pegged Token on BNB chain. Since $BTCB marketcap decreased at the same time, it doesn't seem to be post-settlement. Sell-side liquidity imo.
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#Bitcoin miner capitulation is still ongoing. Historically, it ends when the daily average mined value is 40% of the yearly average; it's now at 72%. Expect the crypto markets to be boring for the next 2-3 months. Stay long-term bullish but avoid excessive risk.
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$BTC market is in the greedy stage. How much leverage people bet in derivative trading can indicate investors' fear and greed. It has increased since February. I'm not saying bearish, but I usually recommend buying when it's in the fear phase. Chart 👉
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Govt #Bitcoin selling is overestimated. $224B has flowed into this market since 2023. Government-seized BTC contributes about $9B to the realized cap. It's only 4% of the total cumulative realized value since 2023. Don't let govt selling FUD ruin your trades.
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#Bitcoin OTC markets are overwhelming CEX markets. Whale wallets (>1K BTC), including spot ETFs and custodial wallets, added 1.45M BTC this year, totaling 1.8M BTC. In 2021, about 70K BTC flowed in over the year; now, it's 100K BTC "weekly." I repeat. 100K BTC weekly.
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