PlungeProtectionTeam
@gamesblazer06
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Financials Guy. Never Give Up on America. 🇺🇸 (Same handle on Truth Social)
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$KRE Imho Super Cheap at $38…
KBW Regional Bank Index Price/Tangible Book Value at ~0.88x or at ‘08, ‘20 Lows. Irrationally Oversold.
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Billionaires love higher taxes for everyone else.
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S&P at >11x Tangible Book Value.
3 sigma right tail. $SPY 👀
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Everyone wants the Great Depression 2.0....it’s all fun & games until you lose your job & livelihood. Then the tweets aren’t nearly as funny.
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I shorted a tons of Banks from 2007 to 2009…a Super rich Partner at my old hedge fund in NYC..told me in March 2009… “Congrats” … “u know u can’t retire off getting Short right?”… u can only make a 100% (Options didn’t move the needle in that hedge fund.)
So true…
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QE has literally taken Free Market Capitalism that we all grew up with & now effectively Nationalized Financial Markets to extremum. The more u dig into the financial plumbing the more u see what’s going on...
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“In 36 seconds DeSantis explains why he’ll be president in 2025.”
E. Klein
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@JamesTodaroMD
These charts are absolutely devastating to the Media Narrative... with 3 months to go to Nov 3.... nobody even cares.
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$DXY Ripping to 98.5… but yeah it’s losing its status as the World’s Reserve Currency… any minute now.
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“Fed warns of 'economic ruin' when governments print money to pay off debt.”
LOL... About the last 10+ years... the Fed did what?
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This is when you know Masks have Zero to do with
#Science
& everything to do with Political Control.
If the data supports no Masks according to CDC..why are they suddenly not abiding by their own
#Science
. What’s different between now & June 15?
JUST IN: California health officials say the state won't align with the CDC's relaxed masked guidance and stick to the June 15 target date set by Gov. Gavin Newsom.
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Thank u Fed🙏.. please keep doing what you r doing coz my rent, tuition costs, house prices, food costs, auto prices, healthcare costs aren’t high enough..I love it when I can’t afford it.. coz wages suck..I have to get a Cr Card at 17%..while Banks pay me 5bps on my checking a/c
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Just a quick reminder... we got the Roaring 20s after the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu.
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“It is a bellwether for what happens in the rest of the country… what happens in VA will in large part determine what happens in 2022, 2024 & on.”
- Kamala Harris
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Imagine thinking the Fed has created a Bubble in “Everything” & then going out & buying a pet rock like Bitcoin to hedge against monetary profligacy. The irony of all ironies. 🤦🏻♂️
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Today CNN Fear & Greed at 17.
$SPY now -3% from All Time Highs
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“Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.”
- Freidrich Hayek
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“Nearly all men die of their remedies, & not of their illness.”
- Moliere, Tartuffe 1664
$TLT $XLF
FED'S CLARIDA SAYS FED WILL CONSIDER NEW TOOLS TO EASE POLICY IF NEEDED : SAYS NEW TOOLS TO BE REVIEWED INCLUDE SOME FED REJECTED BEFORE, LIKE CAPPING TREASURY YIELDS
When will the market ask why is the Fed stopping QT, talking about more QE and floating ideas like this????
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Reminds me of 2008 when there was that government Ban on shorting a list of financials. Financial stocks ripped for 15 minutes...then got absolutely annihilated... this type of suppression of truth & price discovery etc ... never works over time.. it just amplifies & compounds.
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2001 Recession started in 1Q01..
Accelerant: 9/11
2008 Recession started in 4Q07
Bear filed 1Q08...
Accelerant: Lehman 3Q08
2020 Recession started in 4Q19?
Accelerant: Covid19?
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QE is a drug.. you can’t wean yourself off it and get clean unless u experience major withdrawal symptoms. The Dealer & Junkie never think that cost is worth it... until they overdose completely... but then it’s too late & it’s game over.
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Betting against America, PPT & the Fed...in the middle of a Deep Humanitarian, Financial & Economic Crisis is just bad business....you may be right for a while...but eventually you’re gonna get your face ripped off...She’ll come back stronger & with a vengeance.
Go USA 🇺🇸
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Moral of the story: Get & stay Long. There’s unlimited Convexity.
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This market is held together with daily shots of liquid Repo crack & “duct tape & popsicle sticks.” The higher they take it the more brutal the fall & social suffering. They don’t seem to care.
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How can you buyback your stock & ask for a Govt. Bail Out at the same time? What a complete joke.
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At some point the market is going to figure out that there’s something deeply wrong....
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@KelemenCari
China’s workforce is back to 90% as well - without any Vaccines - quite remarkable.
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$JPM now -24% in a Bear Market.... guess who has a large Oil & Gas book, tight on Standardized Capital & also doesn’t love the new SCB & gross b/s GSIB Scores...about those Stressed Revolver draws... is anyone using the Fed RRP these days? LOL
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I don’t know who needs to hear this… but the US Economy doesn’t work at a 7% Mortgage Rate.
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Good news is Covid will magically go down by 90% in the next 12 months.
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Florida Covid Effective Reproduction completely rolling over despite the main stream news headlines of gloom & doom. $XLF
#Reflation
Now < 1.0
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Kashkari called 4US Banks to raise $200B of Capital in April 2020….We would have had a Global Depression if Banks had to choke down on Sheet & raise $200B at exact worst time. Instead we Released $150B..
Whiffed by $350B now calling for +100bps = Irresponsible.
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QE4 has 2 components:
1) Fed Repo
2) Bill Purchases
Both can be construed as QE..
Fed Repo swaps cash for bank $TLT collateral..liquifies Bank OpCos over & above Resolution Req. They then go fund their Dealers for GC financing & hedge funds/regional dealers in Sponsored FICC
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So $JPM suspended stock repurchases... this is after the stock has plummeted -26%.
That should resonate.
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@TheStalwart
How can you say this after doing a Liquidity Podcast with Zoltan Pozsar? He walked you through QE4 & Collateral Transformation.
Calling it “illiterate nonsense” is beyond bizarre.
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Yes obscene... instead of trying to tax the rich and middle class to death.. why don’t you address the real problem - QE. The Fed has a $4Trillion B/S...any idea where that cash goes? In addition, perhaps the Swiss National Bank shouldn’t be buying $AMZN stock? Just a thot Sir.
Two weeks ago Jeff Bezos added $13 billion to his wealth in 15 minutes.
$13 billion in 15 minutes.
Think about that compared to the pain and struggle of millions of Americans who are living paycheck to paycheck.
We have a rigged economy and that has got to change.
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Ben Bernanke’s ideas that live on & are perpetuated at the Fed has single handily destroyed Free Market Capitalism & has replaced it with devastating Wealth Inequality.
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Interesting factoid..Spanish Flu (H1N1) of 1918/1919.
Dow Jones Total Returns:
FY 1918: +10.51%
FY 1919: +30.45%
Cumulative Return 12/19/1917 - 11/3/1919 -> 81.38% (Trough-Peak)
Global Pandemics can be very Bullish 4 Risk Assets.
#TrackRecord
Interesting factoid... we went into Recession in 4Q07 at All Time Highs of 1565 on the S&P on 10/9/07...10Y3M inverted in 2006... People forgot.. 2007 felt great... The following year in 2008...not so much.
$TLT
#OnSchedule
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I’m a fossil... I don’t do bottom calls... but when $HYG goes over +1,000bps OAS..it’s time to start looking 4 Value...1 & 2 years from now...returns will in all likelihood be handsome. July of this year will be my 25th year in high yield.. that’s what I have learned.
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QE4 has big asymmetrical negative convexity..liquidity gets pulled now it’s gonna be super bad.. if they continue to add liquidity it may not even matter Post Inversion..We had years of win win.. now the set up is lose lose imho.
4Q19 earnings illustrate Fed pushing on a String.
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All those QE models and Math PhDs.. & it all boils down to a wet finger in the air. Gr8.
Fixing repo market a 'trial and error' process, former Atlanta Fed president says
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Did something just happen in the last 5 minutes?
FRA OIS just printed +6bps to 48bps...
Smashing through its Sep 2019 Repo Crisis High...
@RaoulGMI
@DiMartinoBooth
@MichaelSedacca
@Stimpyz1
@GS_CapSF
@Analyst_G
@KeithMcCullough
@HedgeyeDDale
@EconguyRosie
$XLF $KRE
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Now we know WHO’s running the Show.
@Jkylebass
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The Fed is starting to prey on public ignorance.. truly scary times.
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Higher $TLT + Higher $DXY + Higher $GLD = Deflation... All 3 at same time.
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“Did Mask Mandates Work? The Data Is In ... And the Answer Is 'No' -
Bloomberg
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Fed: everything is technical... just enjoy the Bubble you illiterate serfs.
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@GavinNewsom
Great news!👍
But it’s been a year & we are essentially all still chained down to our houses. Let’s Reopen 100% like Florida/Texas & other States that have virtually the same numbers.
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They all want you to buy $76 Oil at the recent Peak in 2018...At $20 Oil in 2020 in the middle of a potentially horrendous Recession they want you to sell - & believe it is terrible “Value.”
The Street Consensus is a money losing machine -> Over Time.
$XLF $KRE
@GS_CapSF
@TommyThornton
@DavidBCollum
@RaoulGMI
@EconguyRosie
@DiMartinoBooth
@KeithMcCullough
@LanceRoberts
@MarkYusko
@chigrl
4 two years..beginning in 12/31/17 with Consensus intelligentsia trade to “Buy Commodities” coz of some ridiculous chart.. they were falling all over each other when $CAT was $170 telling u to buy at 2.2x sales.. now under 1x sales... they are telling you sell $CAT with $20 oil.
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QT run off ends in August.. then there’s at least $600B+ off T Bill Grenades on the way by year end. No QE yet.
$DXY approved to Blast off courtesy the Fed & PPT. $DXY now 98.49.
@RaoulGMI
@chigrl
@Stimpyz1
@GHBurnsCFA
@Barton_options
@EconguyRosie
@KeithMcCullough
$TLT $XLF
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Portnoy: “Buffett is the greatest “trader” of all time...but even Jordan wasn’t the same guy on the Wizards... right now I’m better... until Corona is over & I go back to my 9-5 job.” LOL🤣 This dude is epic...he’s just building a brand... everyone’s taking him way 2 seriously.
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Oil was at $125 in early March…. Now collapsing to $100. -20% in a blink of an eye.
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Ronin Capital a “Clearing Firm” is liquidating...I distinctly remembering the debate on my TL... CCPs & their illiquid sponsors with their netting was a huge risk. More liquidations.
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Supression of free speech is dangerous & a slippery slope. Do they own the platform? Absolutely. Is it their right to ban anyone they want? Absolutely its their right. That doesn’t make it right. It degrades the platform. Ultimately, if users don’t feel free..
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Same TV people were all up in arms in Summer coz they wanted schools shut down.. pushing their arguments including Kawasaki disease..now everyone including Fauci are saying kids should go to school for reasons that were clear from Day 1.
Europe let kids go to school - no issues.
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$DB another Lifetime low of €5.90...
How does a Bank w €43 Trillion in Derivatives, €1.3 Trillion in Assets get supported by only €44Billion in Tangible Capital..that’s only worth €12B in the market.
At what point do they blow out AT1/CoCos?
@RaoulGMI
@DiMartinoBooth
@GinSecurities
@watsoneg5
$DB & Germany have a free lever to pull... stop lying about ADI reserves... turn off coupons on €4.6Billion of AT1s... write that down to zero & start process of restructuring with a massive equity recap.
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Interesting factoid... we went into Recession in 4Q07 at All Time Highs of 1565 on the S&P on 10/9/07...10Y3M inverted in 2006... People forgot.. 2007 felt great... The following year in 2008...not so much.
$TLT
#OnSchedule
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Please just stop.
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People are figuring this out. Can’t hide the truth forever.
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The silence from real journalists is deafening.
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June 19th, 2021: $36/lb
July 1st, 2021: $40/lb
I asked for the “Base Effect” Deflationary Discount after PV’ing it back at the Grocery Store Index cost of equity…Guy at the Cash Register said he wasn’t aware of this math & said go grill an iPad instead.
Inflation everywhere!
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Investors love Free Market Capitalsm... on one condition... risk is one way.👆
This is the beginning of Price Discovery.
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@KingKong9888
As u get older you kind of realize… being constantly bearish gets a lot of vanity points..but not much else - over time.
Reminds one of the old adage.. “Driving is for show but putting is for dough.”
Adequate returns compounded over long periods of time, beat most strategies.
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So the BIS now gets that “Sponsored Repo” was a big part of the Sep 2019 Repo Crisis..Hedge Funds now being subsidized with tax payer QE4 money - which is now being flushed down the toilet. If tax payers had a clue..they would be unhappy.
@RaoulGMI
@DiMartinoBooth
@Stimpyz1
Rumors Of Macro Fund Failure Amid Ultra Long Bond Explosion
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Today’s Band Aid.
US TREASURY ANNOUNCES LAUNCH OF BUYBACK PROGRAM FOR MAY TO JULY QUARTER, FIRST BUYBACK OPERATIONS SCHEDULED ON MAY 29TH.
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If u think u know exactly when the Recession started... think again.
We went into Recession in 4Q07.. rallied Post Bear...from March to August.. then hell broke lose in Sep 08 w Lehman..this Recession could have even started in 2019.. we have no idea until 5 or 6 years from now..
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The most popular refrain on Wall Street in the last 12 months might be...”The Fed won’t let it.....”
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@JacksonStewal
@RaoulGMI
@DiMartinoBooth
@Stimpyz1
@KeithMcCullough
@HedgeyeDDale
Certain parts of mkt stupid cheap... overall market no so much...but IG market for$XLF is ridiculously cheap if you have 2 yrs runway. $JPM 5 year CDS is now at a +165bos spread.. only 62bps away from 2008 GFC. Hard not to like high quality Bank Credit.
@Jkylebass
+3 Sigma Move.
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They are in full blown panic mode.
Not a great look. They r so boxed in.
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No matter who wins tomorrow - we owe it to the President or new President to support their administration - & hope they govern for all Americans.
We are all collectively invested in the success of the eventual winner no matter which party wins the WH.🇺🇸
#Election2020
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Jamie Dimon says Wealth Inequality is a huge problem... yet says he’s happy the Fed started to print more QE. Sorry but what an utter joke. $JPM
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One thing I will never do is bet against the Yield Curve. It is infinitely smarter than us.... yet it is all of us....as history teaches us we learn nothing from it.
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Trump: “You can not BuyBack your stock.. you can’t take a Billion Dollars of the Money & Increase the Value.”
Bravo 👏
@realDonaldTrump
@stevenmnuchin1
$XLF $KRE
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Cramer calling the “Top right here in Oil.” $XOM
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Dangerous times... we could have a face ripping rally at any point soon on massively oversold sentiment... that might end up being a huge
#BullTrap
imho.
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@RaoulGMI
There are a ton but perhaps this one is a top pick & suggests weaker growth in 2020.
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What’s amazing is the insanity of Bitcoin/Crypto folks who are buying a Bubble coz they believe in a flawed “Decentralized” money that supposedly limits power of Govt..but will end up being Centralized on pipes controlled by 3 Big Tech companies that ironically Cancelled Freedom.
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@RobSchneider
You would think maybe one major news outlet would pick this up..
Nope, not even one. That’s the state of mainstream news media today.. pure partisan trash when it comes to Covid.
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Just talked to a real estate agent today.. reiterated... Real Estate in NYC Suburbs are on fire. Everyone wants out of NYC...interesting tells across board.
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Epic!
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This aged better than almost anything on the Internet. He said this in Summer in 2020. So prescient.
Just a reminder, Chris Sky predicted this 1 year ago 👇
Only you CAN make it STOP.
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Today was awful....people are starting to give up.
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GC Repo 2.15% > IOER 1.80%
FHLB overnight 1.97%
#FundingSecured
$TLT
I thought it was fixed?
#ICAP
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It’s truly amazing that the Fed needs to offer $1Trillion in overnight Repo money to Banks - everyday - yet everyone still believes we have a healthy banking system.
At least now the intelligentsia.. isn’t doing “Technical” & “Bad Repo Takes” anymore..1 fella had that t shirt.
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90% of Street doesn’t realize that longer QE goes on & Price Discovery is emasculated..Mindless Passive Investing completely obliterates Active..fees compress & machines rule everything..economy is gonna continue 2 suck..stocks rip to ATHs.. & U are out of Job staring at ur P.A.
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The Fed has literally conditioned investors to feel gypped if risk has downside for more than 5 minutes.
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Pre GFC we had a better form of Free Market Capitalism - problem is the Fed didn’t let it work - you can’t privatize gains & socialize losses in perpetuity...eventually the pressure needs to be released either in the market or at the polls...or in extreme instances in the street.
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It’s fascinating that last year the Intelligentsia loved Banks... now that they have over $3 trillion on their Balance Sheets suddenly it’s a very difficult investment. $XLF
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Bloomberg/Dems: Raise taxes on the rich.. bad idea...just drain Fed’s balance sheet..& stop QE..that will go a long way 2 getting back to real free mkt capitalism. Wealth Inequality gets fixed in a nano second..90% of America get 0% on savings & pays 17% of Cards. That’s the Fed.
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