GregTheAnalyst
@Analyst_G
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Independent investor, my tweets are not an investment advice. Charts, macro-micro, technicals.
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Joined March 2011
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$DJI secular moment, what I'd like to point out is watch where (M)MA200 is hitting. Directly on upper megaphone trend line.
My bet is unchanged : Once DJI breaks (M)MA200 and jump below the upper trend line in this case economic depression is going to hit USA. 2 charts. Today
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But I'm dumping like crazy every day to you guys $NVDA
🔸NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG: WE ARE AT THE BEGINNING OF A NEW INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
$NVDA
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10Y-3M - WTF is going to happen here... I just know one thing - Something really big.
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My secular bond trend vs $HYG -> I've been saying - everything from November 2020 is an utter fake cheating the technicals and gravity, that means we launched a small ultra-mini cycle still in 2009+ cycle (4Q20-1Q22). Here's the charts :
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@ethanflynncpa
That's a first step towards collapse of the housing market. If you take a look what was happening in 2008, but later cost of buy will be way cheaper than cost of rent :)
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I don’t change my mind. Evergrande for China is Bear Stearns (or even Lehman) for US in 2008
#Evergrande
- China’s and world’s largest RE developer, with $ 15-16bn in offshore debt and more than $300bn in total liability - is on the verge of default and it’s bonds trading at 27c on the dollar. This is not making enough headlines given the systemic risk involved here imho
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10 myths I see and I fight against them
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In 2001 we had valuation crisis, in 2008 we had credit crisis, in 2019 we are going to have both all together same time.
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@zerohedge
Nope they made weird rate cut -0.75% probably due to political elections in a month.
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Either I'm blind or sovereign bond market is about to flash-crash...?
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I still believe China is one big Enron. Not a company not even two. The whole their economy is accounting fraud which as usual is being exposed during a crisis.
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11Ys later
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This is just another fun. Because Kondratieff told in 1910-20 that end of disinflationary boom on low rates always is lead by raising debt and productivity because of new technology invented during this time. So I prepared something :
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Looks like bubble sustainability is set on :
Tesla +10% a day
Apple +5% a day
Nvidia +4% a day
AMD +8% a day
Amazon +2.5% a day
In such parabolic advances it's just can't slow down or it collapses.
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Holly fuck... this bond market is on the edge of a crash. Look on UK GILT
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Bonds bid = oil spike...
You got it why the FED can't really stop raising rates? Because we'll see oil 200$ really really fast.
Only liquidity crisis can cure this madness...
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Imagine tomorrow HOT CPI ... 😂
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@KYRRadio
Gold is moving because it sniffs big secular change. Funny to watch that DJI/GOLD bottom is 0.5 ...
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$SMCI busted, but $NVDA is a bit behind. Both in epic parabolic move up which does not correct sideways...
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Updated ... Earnings bottom, and cycle bottom 2H22, still think cycle peak 1Q18, GLOBAL economy enters recession 2Q19, cycle reverses 2H22, exUS cycle, US top prosperity 4Q18.
So, as expected in June2018 prediction oil has peaked around 3Q2018, so inflationary expectations. Earnings have peaked around 2Q/3Q2018 with much weaker expectations for future. We are entering rate-cuts period and market expects to go into recession starting 1Q/2Q2019
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So, as expected in June2018 prediction oil has peaked around 3Q2018, so inflationary expectations. Earnings have peaked around 2Q/3Q2018 with much weaker expectations for future. We are entering rate-cuts period and market expects to go into recession starting 1Q/2Q2019
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If 5bps up on real yields giving 5% gold drop and 10% silver it shows how leveraged this system through PM volatility...
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1/ Yields are not tanking because of COVID new cases
2/ They're not tanking because of US credit too
3/ They're also not tanking because China banned US IPOs too
4/ Not because of Blackrock moved to neutral on stocks
They're tanking because Chinese credit is tightening ...
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Hang-Seng and China bear market rally over. New leg down has started.
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@INArteCarloDoss
As I've been saying ...
"Only huge liquidity crisis can cure inflation", if you try to avoid it, be ready for another wave of inflation crashing down real wages and crashing down demand for most of goods, to make sure, deflationary pressures will be even bigger like TSLA prices
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Hard to imagine what's going to happen when $AAPL will puke.
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I think we're at the point where :
1/ USD can't go lower - without creating avalanche of deleverages in China
2/ Chinese Yuan can't go weaker without creating avalanche of $$$ debt defaults globally
Fascinating to watch who's got the economical gravity in its hands.
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If you took a mortgage and bought a real estate between Jan20-Dec21, you are the king sucker of the 1980+ disinflationary cycle.
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That's why you should pay big attention to SPY/TLT.
You don't want to see it reversing from this moment = market is going down.
The current melt-up of the $SPY vs. $TLT ratio appears very similar to the equity-to-bond ratio right before the Great Depression.
While there's no evidence that a major deflationary depression is coming, if you've followed my tweets, you've seen the many charts I've pointed out
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This market won't find a bottom until retail will be forced to sell $AAPL and $TSLA and will be afraid to buy them back. That will be the moment when all "melt-uppers" will change their rhetoric ...
That's my guess.
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1/ Mutating pandemic
2/ Ice age
3/ Power prices 📈
4/ No silver
5/ Food inflation 📈
6/ Rioting everywhere
7/ Stock market +100%/Y
8/ Clash between Millennials and Boomers
9/ Retail squeezed HFs
10/ 750k-1M initial claims/week
11/ All traders jobs not needed
12/ Earthquakes
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If something is going PARABOLIC up 500% in a "blink of an eye" and you're not dumping it, you deserve to lose 95% of its value.
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$NVDA +25% ... Hahahah ... buahahahaha sorry guys can't stop laughing ... what a god damn hyper bubble...
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@INArteCarloDoss
1/ QE lifted up the inequality so killed demographics
2/ Participation rate starts declining
3/ Stimmy checks started secular downtrend in real wages
4/ Working in reality sucks
5/ Time to kill lots of jobs created by Small & Medium enterprises
Yeah FED's experiment is a culprit
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Really curious when Americans will be finally pissed off... I think this 600$ bill was just a cover to pass something totally different.
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I'd like to warn. Big technical plunge ahead of crypto :
$BTC below (W)MA200 and (M)MA50
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Rare opinion: FED won’t fold until oil crashes… Nobody knows at which level stocks will be, but no FED PUT until oil can be at reasonable levels even if stocks need to go 60% lower.
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This is not a time to go short. Unless I still believe we're going to have an overshoot down below (W) MA200 to trap more people... Be careful.
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Powell - food prices went up - sorry guys who lost jobs, but hotels prices went down so in general prices went very much down (so we need to boost food prices a lot to meet 2% inflation target)...
Love it.
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2019 "bold" predictions ...
SP500 - 1600-1800, Oil : 30$, EURUSD < 1.05, US10Y = 2.20%, Tesla files for bankruptcy and Musk went to jail, EURO-ZONE crisis (not sure which bank or country). End of bear market is far far ahead of us and won't finish in 2019 for sure.
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@zerohedge
Selling naked calls just because you are a star sleeping behind the wheel is always a bad sign ...
I want to see the Melvin Capital letter to investors, probably it'll leak out.
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@CoffeeDrinker75
@nexta_tv
Yeah but they thought 2-3 days and done, now situation is a bit different.
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So we had best January since 1987, just after worse December since 1929... OK got it...
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I was looking at $NFLX chart and I knew it reminds me something ... Worldcom collapse... Huge bounce ... Believe me or not those patters are repeating.
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Each quarter I'll be updating this chart ... So we can see how we move in the economy cycle...
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Technically $$$ has 2 peaks :
DXY=120 (2000-2002)
DXY=160 (1985)
On one of those it'll peak. Because
#bigflip
for me means huge economical turn ending disinflationary cycle for decades I'm in a 160 camp here since a long time.
Time'll tell.
If you understand nothing about the
#bigflip
are are not into SOFR curve trades, won’t be trading bond futures, yet wanna take away something simple that can have an important and lasting impact on your trading year, let it be this: $ did not peak yet for this cycle.
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Peak inflation was June 2022.
Now time to watch if my theory is valid. It says :
The larger is inflationary spike the more powerful deflationary impulse to follow.
Red line should jump to record deflation. Time to watch as yield-curve is uninverted, and yields plunging like
@yatirimgeyik
Seems so that means $$$ spike is coming and deleverage to kick in. I'll drop my also favorite chart with a prediction. Debt is higher so smaller deleverage can bring more powerful problems :
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Very detailed topping pattern ... Like from a ruler .. $SPX
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Long Cash -> Long DXY -> EM F/X to the toilet!
Long Gold -> especially in EM F/X term
Long US Bonds -> US Bonds => Last one which will be in bull market, because as velocity of money to ZERO => $$$ to infinity!
History rhymes again like 90Ys ago.
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This system is a joke :
1/ Russia pretends RUB is a reserve currency
2/ China pretends building ghost towns is an art of the economy hiding their bond market under the carpet
3/ Japan/EU pretends stimulus is needed despite inflation
4/ US pretends it controlls the situation
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Anyway prepare for a huge move in unemployment.
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From cash is trash, nothing will stop the bull market to heading into Great Depression in a matter of a month
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Market trying to understand FED has lost the game with the economy.
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I'll risk a thesis officially... Chinese economy has just blown up US economy...
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1/ Evergrande is NOT Lehman - it's more Bear Stearns
2/ $USDHKD peg forcing $HSBC to go full Lehman is ... Lehman
Mark my bets!
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Yesterday we had the biggest overbought since March 2009 bottom (last 2 weeks rally). Either the bull is resumed or it is a massive trap and bear market dead cat bounce. Place your bets.
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After such shock they were easing to infinity in 1930... But money supply no longer created any growth as debt saturation blew everybody up and they gave up. To see a real damage we need to wait a while.
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$NDX defending key MA line, last time crossed in Sept2008 :
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In 2008 ... It just exacerbated the panic.
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$PYPL - the most important moment of PYPL is the fact it's now below March 2020 lows... Another one to the collection
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BTW ... those drops in 2008 ... 600points down... Millennials keep learning
Film owned by
@xtrends
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2008 was walking in the park guys ...
🇨🇳 China foreign direct investment -29.6% YoY.
𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀!
Chart:
@tEconomics
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Japan's government says there are now 9 million vacant homes in the country, as it struggles with a declining and ageing population.
I try to figure out how on earth Japan will be growing in the future…
Japan's March GDP Slips On Weak Consumption - JCER Estimate - Nikkei
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While :
Netflix annual free cash flow for 2018 was $-2.960B,
Netflix annual free cash flow for 2017 was $-1.959B,
Netflix annual free cash flow for 2016 was $-1.582B,
Netflix annual free cash flow for 2015 was $-0.841B
The higher amount of subscribers the bigger the losses.
Number of Netflix subscribers:
2018: 148.5 million
2017: 117.6 million
2016: 93.8 million
2015: 74.8 million
2014: 57.4 million
2013: 44.4 million
2012: 33.3 million
2011: 23.5 million
2010: 20.0 million
2009: 12.3 million
2008: 9.4 million
2007: 7.5 million
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Unfortunatelly I am also in this camp - "Housing market will enter into long term secular decline and in lets say 20 years you'll be able to get houses for "free". You can read very good article from Tomas about why it's going to happen.
You think housing prices will keep going up because you've seen it all your life. But this is a historic anomaly that is likely to reverse soon: Prices might start shrinking in many places.
This thread is the case against investing in housing:
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1st trigger : COVID-19
2nd trigger : NIRP on OIL and avalanche?
Let's see...
Bear will give us 2 key triggers. First on the top of dead cat bounce - covid19. Second is about to strike in a moment, after key indexes retested broken trends what they did today. Last time it was Lehman. Expect really bad event - unknown - but expected and very nasty.
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@FinanceLancelot
Both 1929 and 2023 are end of disinflationary cycle. It's even way more funny to watch those megaphone patterns. 1st was a tech crisis, 2nd - financial crisis, 3rd - printing to infinity
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Now the fun begins ... Next : Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Boeing, Tesla and much much more earnings this week. Should be just awesome if all will disappoint like CAT or NVDA and have -10% in a day trade. Day after day.
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If you're still a believer US economy can grow with Chinese economy bellying up on our eyes, you got the last moment to revise your idea how GLOBAL economy works.
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$TLT above (W)MA50 ... Bullish it hurts...
Normal retest : 135$, but it we come back to channel (I think we'll) we're going to see new ATHs here
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Summarizing.
1/ I think rates have peaked and US02Y is buy
2/ I think long end rates will go higher, so $TLT lower as $USDJPY is going to blow up way higher after 152 retest, so later to correct lower.
3/ SPY/TLT ratio hits its peak around 5.75
4/ DJI/GOLD is retesting broken
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Buying calls not a big deal but SELLING PUTs will bring bigger disaster.
This week, the smallest of options traders opened 14.5 million contracts betting on higher prices (buying calls and selling puts).
That's a record high. As
@ReformedBroker
would suggest, it's the Davey Daytrader effect.
On leverage.
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What an epic divergence between $AUDUSD and oil … somebody is wrong by … miles.
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This market will crash only because people went all-in in inflationary idiotic narration without understanding what in reality is inflation in disinflationary cycle.
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@SJosephBurns
Chicken(C) = 20
Egg(E) = 1
Banana(B) = 1
Last equation :
1*20(C)+[4*1(E) x 4*1(B)] (multiplying is first)
20+[4x4] = 20+16 = 36
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Biggest bears on twitter now showing much higher targets than biggest bulls... 🤔
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In bear markets retests are being caused by low-volume rallies. You wonder why?The idea of a bear market is to take each $ from bulls and burn it in a furnance. Bears are still keeping the resistance, but bulls are getting lower amount of money pushing volume to super low levels.
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In 2020 in February I was on a holiday in Maldives.
Checking right now the prices of the same flight, the same term, the same hotel and same villa just Feb 2022
The flight cost is +40%
The accommodation cost is +266%
My demand has cooled down.
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BoJ is really in a matrix...
Save currency = crash the bonds
Save bonds = crash your currency
At some point of time NIKKEI which is in >2Ys consolidation will react and I think it'll crash bonds+currency+stocks all together.
What does "Velocity of money=0" mean.
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