Rage Against Commodities Profile
Rage Against Commodities

@energyfundys

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All things commodities from fundys to flows . Self proclaimed Weather Expert 20+year survivor

Joined February 2021
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
10 months
@WSJ Late Friday news dump. What a surprise. I look forward to the Monday announcement from KSA that nothing had been decided
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
Funny how #wxtwitter just looks at-NAO and a possible SSW to forecast extreme cold but forgets about +EPO which cuts off extreme cold to lower 48 #natgas #uso #boil #ung #oil #epo #nao #weather
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
PROBLEMS with Freeport. Facility taking 0 power . #natgas #henryhub #energy #commodities
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
11 months
@douglewinenergy The problem is new base thermal is not being built because intermittent wind and solar have artificially decreased prices due to incentives
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
Production still strong even as Permian takes a dip this weekend #natgas #ung #boil #commodities #oil #wti
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
1 year
@PolybiusChamp @NYSComptroller Clear evidence that the higher you raise the tax rate the less revenue you collect . We are allowed to cross state lines
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
1 year
@ericnuttall Feels like we are always pushing out the inventory shock
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
10 months
@anasalhajji Is destabilization in Middle East that cause the small pop . What happens if Israel decides to throw some bombs in Iran ? How much does oil go up ?
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
Only 2 of last 14 years did March futures settle higher than Oct 1 price . Taking the average of each year yields a price of 2.74 for March 24 . Take out polar pig year and we are 2.60. Tail risk is lower #natgas #oott #energy #Commodities #henryhub #cme #boil #ung
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
Anyone worried about record production and a strong El Niño. #natgas #commodities #energy
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
1 year
@cltomlinson @HoustonChron Can’t build new ng and coal because of renewables crushing the price . At end of day renewables are unreliable and we all know that
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
New record production . Still waiting for producer discipline #natgas #ng #commodities #energy
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
Models back off on severity of cold in 6-10 and add in 11-15. Not sure how market will perceive this but large prod numbers over weekend may be the driver on open. Some bulls may see weather as constructive as no sign of blowtorch yet #natgas #boil #ung #oott #energy #hodl
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
For all who care about the physical market . Next day HH is 2.38/2.48.. weighted average so far 2.79. Balmo is -58 cents back #henryhub #naturalgas #commodities #energy #oott
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
10 months
@KobeissiLetter Permian is the new SPR
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
Mar 24 EOS 1884. .5 BCF/Month prod decline starting in Dec. If Prod doesn't decline meaningfully or weather show up we are going to have an issue that only price can solve. Still a lot of Winter left #natgas #boil #ung #commodities #wti #oott #xle #henryhub
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
7 months
@RyanMaue Do you think -50 F in the NW is plausible ?
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@MassachusettsWx Is this going to be another year where the models warm the 1-10 day and cool the 11-15 . Delay delay delay #wxtwitter #natgas #ung #boil
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
Most of my posts of late have been from the bearish side which based on #futures falling off a cliff was correct . Here is a little nugget for the bulls #natgas #boil #ung #Commodities #xle #powerburn #coal #oott
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@kogasman Record production is the biggest worry #natgas #ung #boil
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@VoteBruceNL @corgipapi1 Tough call. Prob open near Friday low as we retrace that euro weather pop on close . Should set tone for the week #natgas #energy #henryhub #oott #boil #ung
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@Gugo907 If true that’s a $2.00-$3.00 gap before it recovers to unch
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
NE +Texas > Haynesville. Biggest question is do gains stay in NE or was this a short term blip . Market can not handle production at these levels with current storage overhang #boil #ung #natgas #henryhub
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
7 months
@jhomenuk Looks to modify pretty quickly
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
7 months
@douglewinenergy We hope wind and solar show up
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@chamath Will you talk about SPACS?
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
@EnergyCynic Because they tried that before and failed
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
@VanIsleInvestor The biggest perma bull in the market is finally throwing in the towel . First bearish thing I’ve ever heard him say . Sounds like Mid 60’s incoming #wti #brent #uso #commodities #oil
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
Market still barely short overall. If weather doesn’t show up market will move lower on long liquidation #natgas #ung #boil #energy #commodities
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
2 years
@JosephHickman0 @RetroTechNoir But ray Epps cover up is def true
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
7 months
@RyanMaue So anytime we get cold weather it’s a climate emergency
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
7 months
@ericnuttall How do you write off the chance that other African countries join ?
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
Bulls should worried about positioning in market right now . MM was still net long. Next report will flip to short but still a ton of length that needs to liquidate if weather/prod doesn’t turn fast #natgas #boil #ung #oott #energy #fintwit #henryhub #cme
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@SCweather_wx Looks like we are in for a perma 11-15 cold look and 6-10 day fail . #wxtwitter #natgas #boil #ung #oott
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
MJO phase 4 generally not good for cold. Question is how long does it last #natgas #wxtwitter #boil #ung #oott #xle #mjo
@MassachusettsWx
Matthew Ferreira | MassachusettsWx
9 months
There's deep consensus of the MJO accelerating out of the cold phases just in time for December. I expect models to correct warmer for weeks 3+.
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
Market thinks there could be a problem summer 24 #natgas #henryhub #energy #oott #Commodities #boil #ung
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
@EnergyCynic Shale is still making money . If we don’t get declines beginning of Q1 it will get ugly
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@mmm_btus Sounds bearish 😂
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
@JayaBajpai17 If we don’t get weather market will force a real shut in this time . Last year we didn’t go low enough in price in Q2 #natgas #boil #ung #commodities #xle
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
11 months
@douglewinenergy Units have been running very hard with the heat . Of course they will break . Not sure what other reason you think is the cause
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
10 months
@MeteoMark What’s the skill score on this model 1 month out ?
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
@CelsiusEnergyFM Open down at least .10
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
2 years
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
10 months
@AndurandPierre @RandPaul The same “experts” that got us involved in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan . The US per usual carries all the weight while Europe pretends to help . I wonder if your long oil position has something to do with your desire to keep volatility in this region
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@ericnuttall The physical market is horrible right now . Do you watch physical prices ?
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@natgaskneel Up .05-.10
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@JustinWx 2009-2010 was a ridic cold winter with a -nao for most of it #natgas #wxtwitter #energytwitter
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@otcengine Given current fundy setup market is still not short enough imo . Producers will hammer all rallies in summer unless this prod comes off which is always a possibility. Cal25 is a separate beast and never like a trade where the market is so one sided #natgas #xle
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
3 years
@NickDeIuliis Partly due to freeze offs of shallow well gas production as well. But agree these are the events that test the green agenda. #batteries
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
@kogasman @joshjtrades @CalifornaGPT @Gertrud09084848 Weather doesn’t matter for one of the most weather dependent commodities on the planet
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@NycStock @GoshawkLeopard Weather backed off in the 6-10 and added in 11-15 . Not sure how market is going to take that with production so high . #natgas #boil #ung
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
6 months
@DiveBomb321 But not all time all time .. that’s still to come
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@Holy_Helicity Biggest reason we didn’t get to 4.0 is the extreme heat in the south central these past few months .
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
@DiveBomb321 ND 2.73 Balmo 2.68
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
3 years
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
At some point we have to acknowledge all of the wrong forecasts of production falling off a cliff which would lead to high pricing . #natgas #commodities #energytwitter #energy
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
1 year
@US_Stormwatch It’s the desert
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
6 months
@eulermatthew4 Models are losing degree days again
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
1 year
@EnergyPeddler @CaptnJoeMuskeg It’s almost like clockwork . Whatever Europe decides to do on their open will be reversed by our open .
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
@JoshuaKitson4 I almost spit out my coffee with this tweet . There is a big difference between academic studies and trading . We are here to make money, not prove an academic study. #natgas #gobacktoschool #trading101 #thinskin #theworldneedsditchdiggerstoo
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@douglewinenergy Wish we had more NG and Coal capacity to deal with this
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
@andrepaltry Market is worried about the other way around
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@kogasman If we come in after holiday and there is no weather 2.60 is def in play . Wouldn’t want to be short 2.50 puts #natgas #boil #ung #xle #oott
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
@silktrade This is NatGas not crude 😂. NG traders don’t know about inflation but we do know about max pain #natgas #commodities #boil
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
Something to share over Thanksgiving Thank me later for humming this song all day 🤪 #thanksgiving #natgas #grateful #50cent #uzbek #itsyourbday #instagram #xle
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
1 year
@RyanMaue Sounds like summer
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
@bamwxcom Nobody looks at this model with any seriousness
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
 Cal 25 holding in well with hopes of 100% utilization of new #lng capacity . Cal 25 hedging risk increases the longer we stay at depressed prices in front #natgas #boil #ung #xle #energy #commodities #fintwit #futures #oott
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
Market will drive producers to cut back or we could be in for a long year of depressed prices as we await the LNG buildout . Question is if there is the global demand for all the new capacity coming on in US and Qatar #natgas #boil #ung #lng #energy #oott
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
1 year
@US_Stormwatch How far back is recorded history ?
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@PSworldwide13 Market needs other countries in OPEC to participate . If all we get is an extension of cuts by SA it’s not enough . Non Opec production too strong #crude #energy .
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
Reminder market was still net long last week . Let’s see what report says today but I assume after the next two it will be short on a net basis #natgas #henryhub #boil #ung
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
33 years ago today Milli Vanilli are stripped of their Grammy for lip syncing Ironically today pop stars lip sync live shows routinely #RandomThoughts #notjustnatgas #lipsync #ThisDayInHistory
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
11 months
@SergioChapa The regulators love these unexpected shutdowns of a facility that has a track record of safety issues . I’m sure it will be back super fast :)
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
10 months
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
1 year
@RealGasFundies Hmm when is it going to show up or are we struggling with efficiency during high temps?
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
7 months
@PaulSaladino7 #boil guys still think they are in Feb :)
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@VoteBruceNL Freeport power draw monitor
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
8 months
@PaulSaladino7 Don’t we normally see a drop in Tuesdays ? Also you are going to need more than a typical drop. 2-3 bcf minimum on a 7 day rolling average imo
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@QLD891 @MattBro17643363 @VoteBruceNL @ZmansEnrgyBrain Unfortunately this is #natgas and bottom pickers have been killed since the beginning of time . Bears > Bulls #energy #fintwit #boil #ung #henryhub #BAYC
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
7 months
@jhomenuk Ahh yes . Good point
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@energyfundys
Rage Against Commodities
9 months
@DiveBomb321 @NatGasTrend Freeport is too erratic I think is the issue . But we haven’t seen a full facility drop in a long time. It could be back up later today or down til March . #natgas #henryhub #freeport
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