tylermcclellan
@tylermacro10
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Global macro (PM & Research) 15+ yrs. Paris
Joined March 2016
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@TenreiroDaniel
The most anti-yimby county in the country—first ring suburb in wealthiest place in world with same population as 50yrs ago
You genuinely love to see it
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@TheStalwart
Prob not very much
But what it did do (and you are in a great position to judge/confirm this) is dramatically lower the quality of financial discourse generally and macro discourse specifically
Reallly? all asset markets are a Ponzi scheme and it’s just a matter of degree??
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Pour one out for the Saudi strategic geniuses…
They produce less of their main product and sell it for a lower price than 5, 10, and 15 yrs ago
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@TheStalwart
I meant to bring this up but forgot
One of the things that’s most ubiquitous in Paris and much less so in the US (I’m talking urban vs urban)
Is v high quality takeout and semi-prepared food that you bring home for dinner after work
Most “homemade” dinners in Paris are that
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@jdcmedlock
Remember the cardinal rule…
“My banal personal observations are actually really profound because unlike you guys I’m an unbridled truth-teller”
But then how come all your ideas are exactly the same?
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This is the single biggest financial story of the next 10yrs
Remember that the money you inherit is tax-free (to you)
Interesting nugget in
@Emily_Sundberg
's survey of her readers about their personal finances
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The economy is nowhere near a recession, but it’s been steadily slowing for 18months now*
Pls keep that basic fact in mind
& has now reached a place where a few preventative rate cuts are likely warranted (but not a big deal when they happen)
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No seriously,
Pour one out for the people who believe in QT
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Considering the stock market was up ≈ 57% under Trump (election to election)
Its the perfect outcome that it’s going to be up about the same but a little more under Biden…
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@TheStalwart
The whole gold/devaluation pundit complex has gone into overdrive
With the wonderful twist that people can’t agree whether the Chinese are buying gold because the US is going to devalue or because China is going to devalue
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@Chris_arnade
This is so under discussed,
I bring this up with my wife nearly every evening while driving & yet no one else ever seems to know what I’m talking about
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Pour one out for the Rs in 2024,
Alas they mixed up the parts in the story
Trump runs ahead of the field & Biden looks weak so they make peace with Trump being nominee
Biden strengthens dramatically down the stretch, but it’s too late to choose another nominee & Biden wins
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@TheStalwart
Also the subtle reason why crypto and macro make such common bedfellows
To an extent practitioners in both don’t realize, both have become infected with the disposition that everything is a scam
Reflexive anti-elitism that can’t even keep straight at this point what elite means
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You always have to understand that even the bearish commentators are overwhelmingly long risk assets
The problem is that they’re less long then other people they perceive to be less worthy
That explains 99%
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So the second largest economy in the world keeps having bond yields fall to new lows, but you’re confident the neutral rate has risen a lot and the fed doesn’t know what it’s doing….
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I guarantee that when the cutting cycle comes, it’s going to feel so obvious and preordained that the people who said it will never come will genuinely believe they too expected it—just later than others
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@marzipunu
@jurijfedorov
Look up the history of the 15th amendment, you’ll be quite surprised
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I interpret this answer as suggesting that the OER vs Rent wedge will be with us for sometime—but there are other possible interpretations
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@TheStalwart
man if I could get back those many hours arguing about crypto with otherwise smart people
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So wait the the quarterly rate of core PCE inflation has been exactly 2.0% the last two quarters?
That’s just too perfect in every way…
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@PaulSkallas
Working out (at exactly the same workout) in both Paris and New York
& i can say unequivocally that the men and women are both in much better shape in Paris
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No wonder they don’t care about electricity costs—they’re ≈ 1% of capital costs per year
Wild stat!
RBC: "Increasingly, we are hearing about 1GW datacenters, which according to Constellation Energy, could cost ~$7-$10 billion to build and potentially another ~$20 billion to populate the facility with chips, power infrastructure, and other electrical equipment."
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@conorsen
There has been a meaningful deceleration in the the white collar economy for decades now (across the cycle)
Finance never came back completely post 08
Knowledge economy/ start-up may not do so this time
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Always think for yourself, simple concrete thoughts from observation
It probably is the case that AI will be transformative—but isn’t it a bit odd that the firms that putatively stand to benefit most are precisely those set of companies that did well in the 15 yrs before AI?
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@tracyalloway
@TheStalwart
Not fair,
The history of the 70s banking industry (& its interaction with monetary policy) used to be something one could trot out in a pinch to impress,
Now people will just say, yeah I listened to the episode as well
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@KyivIndependent
We should start a campaign around this
It’s going to get very cold in Ukraine this week
What can we do?
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@Empty_America
People want other people to raise their children, but it doesn’t take genius to see the logical flaw in that equilibrium….
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@TheStalwart
Man this is going to be the most challenging meeting in sometime for Fed
Prob since summer of 2008
Multiple Fed speakers in last weeks have mentioned they are watching front end breakevens...
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We have seen that with every single commodity China has become the price setter for, that commodity may initially rally quite a bit but in the long run China being your marginal buyer is bearish
Will it be different with gold for some special reason?
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@realMABarreto
@RalstonReports
If they get a roughly final estimate of the total outstanding in the rurals, and it’s less than the margin, the AP will call it today
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Fascinating,
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@Justin_scoobs
@umichvoter99
get your facts straight! come on, are we on the Biden said really as blinded as those other guys?
in 2016 it was R +.6, . as in a period
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@sebastian_byron
@gercohen
@rickhasen
thank you for your service!
and I guess, unexpectedly, thanks USPS for getting it done (although I suppose the rank and file have been getting in done for a few centuries)
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Are YOU doing YOUR part to solve the debt ceiling?
Buy a platinum coin direct from the US mint today…
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@TheStalwart
Would I see that same gag if I went back through your history or first time for everything.
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@TheStalwart
@s86CoffeeDev
The speed with which VC/ the Valley supplanted HF&PE/ New York and the fact that they are related families
Think about it, the most successful Tiger Cub was just the first one to realize you had to go full VC in worldview
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@jeuasommenulle
@EBA_News
It’s Credit Suisse isn’t it—-
Hence the superposition of bailed in/redeemed of their hybrids
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There’s a phrase in English
“Not worth explaining” that invariably leaves the listener cold,
But perhaps surprisingly, the seemingly far-removed phrase, “too hard to explain” also leaves the listener demanding an explanation
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@TheStalwart
Great case and point.
Both this thread and what it’s referring to are much more radical than how often presented
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We need a new phrase:
What I’m trying to convey would take a lot of effort in order to distinguish between my particular idea and all the closely related ideas with which it doesn’t share the same meaning, & the idea itself is not important enough to sustain that gradation
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@PawelMorski
Like it
But hard to get 50x leverage on corollas
Tips sharpe ratio is incredible
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@TheStalwart
None of those
A turning point gives coherence to the things that Follow it
Which is quite a high bar,
Because there are always cross-currents etc
I think they’ll look back and say post-iPhone
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Chinese industrial wealth is really real
But Chinese financial wealth is highly precarious—more than any country in the world
Both things are true.
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@MattZeitlin
@TheStalwart
I don’t listen to all the episodes (quell horreur), but I often find that guests are surprisingly poor at explaining their basic point?
Do they defer too much like in normal conversation, fearful of returning to something that seems to scripted??-perhaps, but a mistake if so
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I’m not in the recession camp (but then again very few serious people are so no advantage there),
But if one were starting to get a little concerned about the economy, this is imho the single best individual indicator one could point to
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@Rationalist69
@sullydish
This has been the case doe a long time!
One of my favorite restorative has been for a few years to tell people
Whenever you read a nytimes story with comments, make sure to filter by “readers picks”
It always gives a saner version of the world than the story—always
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@DanielKral1
It’s fairly easy to see in the latest eurobarometer the specific areas the French are unhappy relative to Europeans more broadly
(Imho)
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@TheStalwart
It would be surprising (to me at least)
If the incredibly banal observation that it’s hard to value companies with rates at zero ended up defining a whole era of investing
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@TheStalwart
Fascinating chart,
Remember when Brainard gave that great speech about how it’s particularly hard to leave the zero bound when you’re going it alone?
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@TheStalwart
This is doubly true in crypto because,
Even though the correlation between majors (and others) is usually quite high—.8 btwn btc and eth on average
The absolute volatility and drift are so high you can get huge performance drift even between highly correlated assets
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Remember when I told you you often can’t take the payrolls data literally or seriously?
What do you notice?
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@TheStalwart
They literally say in the primer that treasury rates should be pegged at zero and you should use other measures to control aggregate demand
How is that not an explicit course of action?
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Going to be legitimately laughable when all the people who hate American empire start begging the US to ensure the viability of the Red Sea as a trade route
🔴 YEMEN'S HOUTHIS ATTACK SHIPS MSC ALANYA AND MSC PALATIUM III IN THE RED SEA - GROUP'S MILITARY SPOKESPERSON
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Beautiful chart and quite poorly understood in developed world
1/
Unlike companies in developed countries, emerging companies buy back little or none of their own shares, but tend to dilute their shareholders. This is particularly true of China
China's nominal growth since 2008 has been 9.2%, with associated earnings growth of over 12%.
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@umichvoter
It’s a city with zero parralells anywhere in the untied states
It is an entirely planned city where the land is functionally 100% owned by that exact same planner
Quite similar to Chinese cities where the government is the monopoly land supplier in a strange way
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@davecatanese
@NickRiccardi
whats crazy is.....thats not impossible
Selzer had him winning more than that in Iowa (fwiw and I know its apples to oranges)
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There was no acceleration in the economy this year,
But the white collar shocks did stop subtracting at some point, that’s basically what happened
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@gelliottmorris
DUDE,
YOU HAVE NO IDEA. ARE YOU GOING TO ADMIT THAT TO YOUR READERS?
or are you going to say the IID prob we got all swing states wrong is less than 1/1000 if the national polling is correct.
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@duncan__c
@agelston
Please understand that power markets are not markets—in all seriousness and not in a handwaivey way. They are shadow cost of dispatch algorithms
That’s exactly what they are, the fact that the dispatch happens at a price is a red herring- it doesn’t in fact b/c of biltrl derivs
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@TimAlberta
Tim you’re doing great work,
And as someone who consumes a lot of the quantitative material you rightly want to put a asterisk next to,
Let me just say we value your hard-earned old school expertise!
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A truly incredible chart imho…
From 1965-1982 energy prices were never negative YoY (a lot of that had to do with prices being regulated, etc. but still)
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@jeuasommenulle
@oracleofoahu1
Not bought swaps
Paid swaps against some of their risk position—if they didnt have at least a bit of that they’re just laughable
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Nothing Bitcoin advocates have predicted has come to pass—nothing
Not a single thing
But it has undoubtedly done incredibly, almost inconceivably well
No shame in admitting that.
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@Craig_A_Spencer
One thing, which you also know.
Everyone talks about the lag from symptom onset to death (pathogenetic lag), but I can tell you from looking at the data for months, the reporting lag is at least as important.
The actual deaths have already ticked up, they’re just unrecorded
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Deindustrialization german style…
Germany's trade deficit in energy has normalized to pre-pandemic levels and the surplus in other goods has reached 2019 levels.
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Incredibly basic point
If the inflation rate is mismeasured because of residual seasonality,
Then why has the YEAR over YEAR rate been smoothly declining for many months now???
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@TheStalwart
simple regression and you get us daily average price to $4.28 at current wholesale prices
15c above previous record in July of 08
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@conorsen
@TheStalwart
@opinion
I’m sure you know this,
But figure you’d appreciate anyways
So standard Taylor rule says policy rate today should be 4.75% fwiw…BUT
If the Feds own forecast for 2024 core PCE is correct, by year end that rate should be 3.4%
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The government monopoly land-sale model is truly a catastrophe waiting to happen for > 75% of markets
Imagine being a local only developer in rural Japan the last 30yrs—that’s the right future analog for most of these companies…
*Contract sales of top 100 Chinese property developers slumped another 30%-40% yoy in January.
#ChinaProperty
#地产
#Evergrande
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Do yourself a favor, and listen to
@TheRestHistory
series on both the assassination of Franz Ferdinand and the origins of the First World War
Brilliant, educational and entertaining
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@josephdelong
Crypto is the only discipline (?) Ive ever had any experience with where it is legitimately difficult to tell whether the experts no more or less than zero
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Been reading the full FOMC transcripts from 2006 (last real hiking cycle) & have some thoughts.
Will post here over next few days….
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As a non-trump voter, so glad he survived and looked so strong. This is a democracy here, and I feel nothing but pride in seeing the former (and likely next) President hold his hand high in strength.
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@TheStalwart
There’s a difference between
“Makes their job more difficult”
&
“makes their job impossible”
B/c what is lurking in the background of the latter is a completely different model of how inflation works (transversality conditions and so on)
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@TheStalwart
It doesn’t make me angry (or even puzzled)
BUT
It is often shocking how discordant the analysis around Bitcoin is (worse than terrible) with its price performance
I can’t think of anything even remotely analogous
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@TheStalwart
heres a very extreme example
leisure and hospitality employment down by 50% in San Francisco but aggregate wages up by >200%
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@ModeledBehavior
He hasn’t fallen for anything, the people who pay him for his consulting want to be sold fools gold masquerading as real gold
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What is the YIMBY explanation for why such a low share of US household net worth is in real estate (relative to other countries and relative to history)
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@xmjEE
@TheStalwart
China has = 0 big companies by market value. Not one
It’s fine to say market value doesn’t matter, but that is a radical assertion
& any argument to that effect should start by explaining why decades old standard measures don’t matter…
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@TheStalwart
Strangely enough, I think because cooking has become so associated in America with a certain cohort (maybe that’s unfair but anyways), there’s a stigma to just reassembling and heating things but it’s completely dominant here
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@LastBearStandng
@TheStalwart
Those structures are increasingly rare,
It’s mostly the customers who pay that (delta)
But your broader point is a very good one. These technologies produce power when the marginal price is zero.
That may be societally beneficial, but absolutely NO WAY it’s a good business
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