@tylermacro10

@policytensor you are forgetting NIIT at 3.8%

@CharlieTTEcon What does disbursements as a % of imports look like?

@tylermacro10

@tylermacro10

@tylermacro10 interesting... within that, what categories of US inv. expenditure do you think are in a 'bubble'? a) small & mid-size US corporates b) resi inv. c) private equity, venture, CRE, alts d) AI e) crypto  f) Biden's public inv. programs & 'reshoring' g) other

@RajaKorman fantastic read - thank you for the recommendation

@Brad_Setser a striking & concerning chart...

@KAErdmann same thing in Ireland... 25-34 homeownership rate down by roughly half from '91 to '16.

@Brad_Setser '3-3-3' is pretty ambitious... the pessimist in me worries we may be fortunate to simply avoid '5-5-5' (5% CAD, 5% 10Y yield, and 5% unemployment rate)

@Brad_Setser ~5% does seem plausible... we probably would already be there w/o the recent ToT gains. I wonder how much louder the fiscal/twin deficit concerns would have been in recent years w/o the major positive dual ToT & energy production tailwinds of recent years

@MarkCalabria and what were capital requirements then vs. now... you would know

@tylermacro10 Discovery land co but add schools... good idea

@ThematicMarkets @tylermacro10 It's largely an IP investment (more challenging measure than tangibles) boom. What's the import intensity of US IP investment (vs. tangible capex)?

@tylermacro10 here is the share of fin. profits as a % of domestic profits...I wonder how much these measurements fail to fully capture carried interest & other private capital comp. that does impact intermediation margins in the economy

@rev_cap Modestly declining *in the cities we build homes*. Nominal *national* price deflation is harder to envisage with Northeast metros strong & Cali doing fine (especially if broader econ is 'very strong'). CME housing futures are pricing ~2% nominal HPA in the composite for '25

@tylermacro10 @dampedspring

@rev_cap

@KAErdmann yep... it is deeply ironic (and sad) that some of the largest inequality warriors (Warren + anti-banker left) ended up gravely exacerbating the inequality of purchasing power (income + credit) in the main mechanism we have in this country for wealth creation & household stability