M.E. Sarotte
@e_sarotte
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Available as audiobook, e-book, hardback, and paperback—NOT ONE INCH: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate. @SAISHopkins @EuropeAtHarvard
Joined July 2019
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“‘Not one inch to the East,’ they told us in the 90s. So what? They cheated, just brazenly tricked us!”
— Putin during his Dec. 23, 2021 press conference.
Following
@PaulPoast
’s fine example again, here is a teaching thread, a.k.a.
#PoastPost
32
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The upshot: there was speculative discussion of a “not one inch eastward” pact in the course of 1990. But, in the end, Moscow created the exact opposite precedent: it signed a legally binding treaty allowing NATO to move east of the Cold War line.
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But the leader in Moscow in 1990, Mikhail Gorbachev, told an interviewer in 2014 that the events described by Putin never happened. NATO expansion “was not discussed at all”...
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Ahead of talks starting Jan. 10, Moscow insisted that NATO “not deploy military forces and weaponry on the territory of any of the other States in Europe in addition to the forces stationed on that territory as of 27 May 1997.”
Why that date?
A teaching thread.
[THREAD]
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On Jan. 10, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov insisted that Ukraine “never, never, ever” join NATO.
What is the history behind possible Ukrainian membership in NATO? That history goes back a LONG way…
A historical thread.
[THREAD]
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Today Russia appears to have named its price for not launching the largest land invasion since World War II: Getting in writing two things it didn’t get in writing in the 1990s.
Following the fine example of
@ProfPaulPoast
, a teaching...
[THREAD]
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This means Gorbachev concedes in fall 1990 without formalizing a prohibition on NATO’s eastern movement—even though, by then, he understands that the issue of NATO’s future involves more than East Germany. Here’s an English translation of one of his notes from May 1990:
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But remember,
@zlj517
, what changed between Feb. 9 and Sept. 12, 1990—the day Moscow signed (& later ratified) a treaty confirming the opposite:
That NATO could extend Article 5 eastward across the old Cold War front line.
Evidence here:
@DrRadchenko
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But here’s the crucial detail: that settlement expressly permits some NATO forces and weapons—albeit with extensive restrictions, and only after all Soviet troops withdraw—to move eastward across the Cold War line into eastern Germany.
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Here’s more from the same 2014 interview: Gorbachev, referring to himself in the third person, attempts to dictate to his interviewer what to write, in order to avoid a portrayal that makes him look naïve.
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Berlin today.
In the background, the Brandenburg Gate.
Where, in 1989, the power of the people brought down the Berlin Wall—and tyrants.
Be wary of what you have begun, Mr. Putin.
@AVindman
@vermontgmg
@McFaul
@EuropeAtHarvard
@dandrezner
@RidT
Genau so und nicht anders,
#Berlin
! 💙💛
#b2702
#UkraineWillResist
#StandWithUkraine
#StopWarInUkraine
#StopptdenKrieg
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699
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Is there another way investigate what happened other than relying on the memories of participants interested in shaping coverage of their historical legacy?
Yes, by using primary evidence—that is, sources produced at the time by participants.
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That fight culminated in the 1997 battle that Moscow wants to revisit with the draft treaty it circulated Dec. 17…but that would take another thread to explain.
In closing:
@paulpoast
, respect! These "Poast Posts" are a lot of work, and you’ve done a ton of great ones!
[END]
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Since Gorbachev was a direct participant in the events, if he says they didn’t happen, he must be right, correct? Case closed?
No.
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Putin claims that Western leaders promised Moscow in 1990 that NATO would not move one inch eastward, that is, stay frozen on its eastern Cold War front line. What did Westerners want in exchange? Moscow’s permission to let divided Germany unify after the Berlin Wall opened.
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There’s a lot of this evidence. Talks between heads of governments and states, for example, generate a mountain of paperwork. Much of that mountain ends up stored in archives. Some of it gets declassified by requests and appeals...
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What does the publicly available evidence from the key dates show?
That “Gorbachev 2014” contradicts “Gorbachev 1990.” In his own 1990 notes, Gorbachev records a speculative conversation with US Secretary of State James Baker about a “not one inch” agreement.
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For Germany to reunite, Moscow had to give up those troops and legal authority.
It did, and Germany unified on October 3, 1990.
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Why did Moscow have to give permission for Germany to unify?
Because Moscow still had roughly 380,000 troops in the east of, and extensive legal rights over, divided Germany in 1990—all thanks to Nazi Germany’s unconditional surrender in 1945.
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Due to the collapsing Soviet economy and his need for the financial aid the West is offering, however, Gorbachev goes ahead nonetheless. He approves signature of the Final Settlement of September 12, 1990, allowing Germany to unify.
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Only
@MunSecConf
...so surprised to find my book on
#MSC2020
sales stand I say out loud “that’s my book!” Woman next to me: I need a birthday present ASAP, if I buy it will you sign it? Me: Yes, to whom? Woman: write happy birthday Prime Minister Rutte! dinner with him...
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Bush finds one, in cooperation with the West German chancellor, Helmut Kohl. After months of negotiation, Gorbachev agrees in September 1990 to let Germany unify—in exchange for extensive financial support organized by Kohl.
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Sequel: Gorbachev sowed the seeds of a future battle, once NATO offered membership to countries east of Germany. Russian President Boris Yeltsin claimed that the Final Settlement on Germany should have allowed the alliance only into eastern Germany, not beyond.
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In mid-1990, Thatcher even argues for keeping Central and Eastern European countries in a “ghost Warsaw Pact,” as a “fig leaf” to protect Gorbachev from a coup by hardliners.
Bush agrees that Gorbachev needs cover, but wants to find a different solution.
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Other evidence captures various leaders discussing the future of not just of NATO, but also of the Warsaw Pact.
On Nov. 24, 1989, US President George H.W. Bush and British prime minister Margaret Thatcher discuss that the Pact will fall apart, so “NATO must stay.”
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Why did Moscow give that permission?
Because, Putin claims, the West tricked Moscow: it promised no more expansion in 1990, then didn’t live up to its half of the bargain.
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Here’s their conversation as summarized by Gorbachev in Russian…
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Thanks
@wsj
,
@garyrosenWSJ
, and Laura Secor for letting me offer the participants in the high-stakes January 10-13 talks with Russia some critical historical background...
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
@European_Yale
@KissingerCenter
@SAISHopkins
@belferhistory
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Author’s copies: a whole lotta inches!
@YaleBooks
@KissingerCenter
@SAISHopkins
@EuropeAtHarvard
@European_Yale
@yalepress
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The hardback of my book just arrived and I must give kudos to the excellent design team
@yalepress
: the markings are exactly one inch! 😂
@YaleBooks
@YaleAlumni
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Finally arrived in hard copy! Thanks
@VladislavZubok1
for letting me read this ahead in draft—highly recommended. Congratulations!
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
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In sum, Russian troops are on Ukrainian borders in 2022 to force NATO’s borders back to 1990.
[END]
Want citations for the above, along with more context and maps?
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OMG I'm on
@ratemyskyperoom
's radar....I promise to do better if invited back by
@morningmika
&
@JoeNBC
!
Do I get points for refraining from waving a copy of my book on air?
@yalepress
@yalebooks
@SAISHopkins
@SAISlibrary
@EuropeAtHarvard
@European_Yale
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Thanks
@lawfarepodcast
for inviting me to talk with
@AVindman
about the consequences of Soviet collapse 30 years ago for today. Will Putin mark the anniversary by clawing back Ukraine?
@DavidPriess
@DrRadchenko
@MichaelKofman
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"After my grandmother’s death, the Brooklyn Department of Welfare sent all her children to City Hospital. None of the immediate relatives was able to take in any..."
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Well spotted
@biannagolodryga
.
Clinton felt that Yeltsin drunk was better than any of the other options for Russian president sober.
(see below from NOT ONE INCH, p. 157):
@henryfarrell
@AdrianChen
@jeerheet
@KevinRothrock
It was really something to read
@e_sarotte
detail how frequently Clinton came to Yeltsin’s defense excusing his erratic (and drunken) behavior. Clinton appeared to genuinely have compassion for him.
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Foreign Affairs decided to make my co-authored article with Serhii Plokhy from the Jan./Feb. 2020 issue available ungated today...
For those who like footnotes: it draws partly on my IS article
An honor to write with Prof. Plokhy!
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Just finished great filming session with Luminant Media &
@knappB
for new documentary
@netflix
How history can help us master the new conflict with Russia…coming 2023
@SAISHopkins
@EuropeAtHarvard
@belferhistory
@YaleMacMillan
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Great to be with
@DavidAvromBell
@HalBrands
@ShivshankaMenon
@PriyaSatia
@ninatannenwald
&
@adamtooze
in
@ForeignPolicy
's "Back to the Future" edition
Kudos to the cover design team!
@SAISHopkins
@belferhistory
@EuropeAtHarvard
@AVindman
@yalepress
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My lunch today with the Schmidt Professors,
@DrRadchenko
and Andreas Roedder, turned into a book club when the big box of author’s copies showed up just before! Thanks to both for the great editing!
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
@KissingerCenter
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Berlin today.
In the background, the Brandenburg Gate.
Where, in 1989, the power of the people brought down the Berlin Wall—and tyrants.
Be wary of what you have begun, Mr. Putin.
@A_Mastromauro
@belferhistory
@EuropeAtHarvard
@DAlperovitch
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Thanks
@RUSI_org
for shortlisting NOT ONE INCH!
But the competition is fearsome: Faulkner,
@CharlieLaderman
& Simms,
@robert_lyman
, McMeekin, Overy, and
@SPlokhy
...
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
@KissingerCenter
@EuropeAtHarvard
@belferhistory
@JEyal_RUSI
1
8
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My latest in
@ForeignAffairs
on how the fight between Washington and Moscow over NATO expansion shaped the era between the Cold War and COVID
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Well spotted
@DrRadchenko
! I was pleased to get this May ’97 record declassified; it showed Clinton’s continued focus on Ukraine, as in his Jan ’94 NATO speech, below
(details on pages 185-6, 289 & 486 of
#NotOneInch
, shameless plug, now out in paperback)
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TFW you open
@FT
& realize the big letter is for your name: 😀
Great to share the page with my friend
@VladislavZubok1
!
Pro tip: Thanks to
@FT
there’s a 7-10 day wait for my book
@amazon
, so listen to audiobook by the brilliant
@TeriSchnaubelt
instead
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Thanks
@ForeignAffairs
for giving me the chance to write with
@DrRadchenko
& draw on his deep knowledge of Sino-Russian relations
@SAISHopkins
@KissingerCenter
@belferhistory
@EuropeAtHarvard
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Why is Putin, on paper at least, refighting this battle from 1997 by threatening Ukraine? Historical accuracy is not his point.
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TFW you open
@nybooks
& see your book in it…thank you
@fmkaplan
for a thoughtful discussion of these crucial issues
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
@EuropeAtHarvard
@SAISHopkins
@KissingerCenter
@belferhistory
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Thanks
@biannagolodryga
and
@cnni
for a great conversation on
@amanpour
's show, on how the history told in my book NOT ONE INCH can help us to understand the Ukraine crisis. Available on local PBS stations and link available soon...
@yalepress
@yalebooks
@KissingerCenter
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I'm humbled & grateful that the selection committee chose
#NotOneInch
from among many great books
Thank you
@Pushkin_House
for your utterly essential support of nonfiction writing on Russia
@SAISlibrary
@SAISHopkins
@belferhistory
@EuropeAtHarvard
@yalepress
@yalebooks
@SPlokhy
We're delighted to announce that Mary E. Sarotte (
@e_sarotte
), a leading expert on foreign policy, has won the annual
@Pushkin_House
Book Prize for “Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate” (
@yalepress
).
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“In her suddenly relevant history of NATO expansion, NOT ONE INCH…”Thanks
@DoyleMcManus
&
@latimes
for the shout-out in your column on how Putin is reopening the battles of the 1990s
@yalepress
@KissingerCenter
@YaleAlumni
@EuropeAtHarvard
@DrRadchenko
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6
23
Yes but somehow the excellent publicity staff
@yalepress
and
@yalebooks
forgot to tell me when they hired Putin for their book launch team
@SAISHopkins
@KissingerCenter
Putin doing the obligatory reference to 'Not one inch' on NATO expansion. He is trying his best to help
@e_sarotte
sell some more copies of her (truly excellent ) book...
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Hard to see full break—what happens to cosmonauts & space cooperation?
But military-to-military contacts (needed in crisis) are already dwindled. Worse, only 1 nuclear arms accord between US & Russia remains, & it expires in 2026
What would the consequences be of a complete break in diplomatic relations between Russia and the USA?
@ElenaChernenko
,
@PChernitsa_RIA
,
@DrRadchenko
,
@e_sarotte
, others — can you weigh in?
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9
23
Moving article by
@patrickwintour
@guardian
on tragic symbolism of Zelensky speaking within walking distance of signing site of 1938 Munich Agreement
@YaleBooks
@yalepress
Memory of 1938 hangs heavy in Munich as Ukrainian president calls for action
0
9
25
Honored to stand on the Arthur Ross Book Prize podium with Carter Malkasian and
@nicoleperlroth
!
Thanks
@cfr
for selecting NOT ONE INCH
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
@SAISHopkins
@SAISlibrary
@belferhistory
@EuropeAtHarvard
@European_Yale
@KissingerCenter
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Thanks
@McFaul
! I learned a lot from your book From Cold War to Hot Peace, highly recommended!
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
@SAISHopkins
@KissingerCenter
Just heard a terrific talk by
@e_sarotte
on her new book, Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of the Post-Cold War Stalemate. Eager to now read the book. .
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Today, Jan. 31, 12pm ET: Looking forward to this
@HarrimanInst
@NYUJordanCenter
event with
@olenalennon
@oonuch
@m_suchkov
@CooleyOnEurasia
@j_a_tucker
and Keith Darden. Join us!
@SAISHopkins
@KissingerCenter
@EuropeAtHarvard
@belferhistory
@yalepress
1
9
24
Yeltsin’s statements, meant to quiet his domestic enemies, created a popular sense that Russia had received a veto—but that the West betrayed it when it issued invitations later in 1997 to the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland to join the alliance.
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First, Putin wants a binding written agreement that NATO won’t expand eastward. Secretary of State Baker made hypothetical remarks to this effect to Soviet leader Gorbachev in 1990. But as Russian Foreign Minister Primakov later regretted, Gorbachev didn’t get it in writing.
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"...multi-archival, multi-lingual, and multi-level research paired with Sarotte’s gripping narration makes NOT ONE INCH a new centrepiece of debate for academics and policymakers alike"
Thanks
@coldwarhistoryj
&
@SpiritofOSCE
!
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
1
5
23
Thank you
@nprfreshair
and Terry Gross for taking time focus on the history behind Russia's tragic invasion of Ukraine.
Thank you to the people who helped me to research this history, especially archivists and colleagues now at risk.
@SAISHopkins
@EuropeAtHarvard
@yalepress
TODAY: How and why NATO expanded into Central and Eastern Europe -- and how that figures into Russia’s war on Ukraine. We talk with historian
@e_sarotte
.
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With his Dec. 17, 2021 demand that NATO withdraw its forces to where they were on May 27, 1997, he wants to roll the clock back to a time when NATO was only becoming active in eastern Germany, not Central and Eastern Europe.
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While they last: signed copies of my new book
@HarvardBooks
! Only nine left…thanks to this great bookstore for its support of serious nonfiction!
@EuropeAtHarvard
@YaleBooks
@KissingerCenter
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2
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Always worth reading what
@mkimmage
and
@LianaFix
have to say…
@ForeignAffairs
@gmfus
What if Russia Wins? | Foreign Affairs
3
13
21
From Sophocles: “a man of sense judges the new events by the past.” What historians may one day call the wars of Soviet succession might be about to escalate over whether Putin can get a do-over for Gorbachev and Yeltsin—and get “not one inch”and a veto in writing after all.
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In short, the question of Ukrainian (and Georgian) membership in NATO has a long, contentious history…and a future that may involve bloodshed.
[END]
For citations to the above evidence, along with more context:
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3
19
Thanks
@patrickwintour
of
@guardian
for asking the questions that matter about the history of NATO expansion—and why Russia may try to rewrite that history with violence...
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
@KissingerCenter
@belferhistory
@DrRadchenko
1
9
20
TONIGHT 8pm US Eastern time:
Join me
@cspan
@SAISHopkins
@EuropeAtHarvard
@European_Yale
@belferhistory
@KissingerCenter
@SAISlibrary
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
@ForeignAffairs
@CFR_org
@CFR_Academic
TONIGHT: Q&A with historian Mary
@e_sarotte
, author of “Not One Inch,” on NATO expansion since 1990 and the impact it has had on U.S.-Russia relations – 8pm ET on C-SPAN
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9
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"...we are not going out to seize Sevastopol..."
Well spotted
@leukavets
! I was amazed when I managed to declassify this conversation, given how frank it was. See the summary (and subsequent remark about Sevastopol!) in my book NOT ONE INCH:
@andrewsweiss
@DrRadchenko
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5
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Thank you
@DrRadchenko
for the kind words about my forthcoming book--guess I better finish writing it! Yes, not out yet—coming in fall 2021 for the 30th anniversary of Soviet collapse:
When can we expect YOUR next book?
This will make a splash, though it's not out for a few months: . I rarely call anything paradigm-shifting, but this book qualifies. Will challenge a lot of assumptions about the Russian-US relationship in the 1990s (with actual evidence). Looking forward!
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139
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1
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Thanks
@cspan
letting me explore the history behind the current conflict with Russia
@SAISHopkins
@KissingerCenter
@EuropeAtHarvard
@European_Yale
@belferhistory
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
SUNDAY: Q&A with historian Mary
@e_sarotte
, author of “Not One Inch,” on NATO expansion since 1990 and the impact it has had on U.S.-Russia relations – 8pm ET on C-SPAN
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7
19
German diplomats tried to advise the US to take a more nuanced approach on the issue. While admitting that Yeltsin’s claim that the 2+4 blocked expansion beyond Germany was legally wrong, it nonetheless had “political and psychological substance that we had to take seriously.”
1
2
20
Got an early holiday present minutes ago from
@dankurtzphelan
and the editors of
@foreignaffairs
! Deepest thanks to them—and to my fantastic editor Bill Frucht, publicists Jennifer Doerr and James Williams, and the great team
@yalepress
and
@yalebooks
.
2
6
19
Great to be with fellow
@yalepress
author
@VladislavZubok1
on the long list for
@CundillPrize
@YaleBooks
@SAISlibrary
@SAISHopkins
@belferhistory
@EuropeAtHarvard
@European_Yale
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1
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What is the NFRA? A Western effort to create an agreement with Russia in parallel to the alliance’s expansion beyond Germany, in order to make that expansion more palatable to Moscow.
1
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Talks over the NRFA became a rematch on this issue. Yeltsin tried belatedly to get what Gorbachev had not gotten: a Russian veto over further expansion inserted into the text.
He was unsuccessful, but despite failing, he simply started saying that he had received a veto.
1
3
18
A surreal (but welcome) experience: seeing my twitter thread, posted very late on Dec. 23, appear in the
@nytimes
"Interpreter" on Dec. 24!
Thanks
@Max_Fischer
and
@amandataub
for the honor, and
@BHMcClintock
for flagging!
@yalepress
@KissingerCenter
1
4
19
Also in late 1991, US President George H.W. Bush speculated with the NATO Secretary General, Manfred Wörner, on whether states emerging from the USSR—such as the Baltics—should be admitted to new NATO liaison programs. Wörner’s answer: if they apply, “they should be welcomed.”
2
7
17
Thank you
@Pushkin_House
for shortlisting
#NotOneInch
!
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
@EuropeAtHarvard
@European_Yale
@belferhistory
@SAISHopkins
@SAISlibrary
@KissingerCenter
0
4
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Washington insisted that, since the 2+4 only applied to Germany and said nothing of countries eastwards, it had no bearing elsewhere. The issue was so contentious that the State Dept. gave diplomats talking points to “refute definitively” all of Russia’s “specious” complaints.
1
2
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EUROMISSILES is available for pre-order from
@CornellPress
, now with a discount! 🚀
To pick up a copy with 30% off, use 09BCARD. Out officially on November 15.
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Honored to discuss NATO enlargement, past & future,
@NPR
@1a
@wamu885
with
@RobertPszczel
,
@jteurope
&
@JWhitePubRadio
For listeners who want to learn more:
@belferhistory
@KissingerCenter
@EuropeAtHarvard
@finkcommakath
@SAISlibrary
@SAISHopkins
1
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Why is May 27, 1997 significant? Because that date witnessed the signing of an accord called the NATO-Russia Founding Act (NRFA).
1
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When US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright complained about this to Primakov, the Russian foreign minister “admitted that Yeltsin had spoken of a Russian veto. That was a mistake. He had explained this to the Russian president, but Yeltsin had misunderstood.”
1
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Hearing wise words from my
@SAISHopkins
colleague
@DrRadchenko
at the Koerber Stiftung History Forum
#KHF22
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It’s not much compared to what brave people in Ukraine are doing, but it’s at least something I could do: answer Putin’s delusions with evidence-based history.
Thanks
@LorienKite
&
@FT
for letting me write & now making this free for all
0
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I agree. German Chancellor Kohl sensed he didn’t have Gorbachev’s full buy-in on Feb. 10, so Kohl decided to push the envelope by claiming in public that he did, and by commencing economic and monetary union right away. The goal: create irreversible fait accomplis, plural, ASAP
By the way, since there is so much interest in the subject of promises of an "oral contract" between Baker and Gorbachev in February 1990, here's a little snippet from my forthcoming book, where I set out my (painstakingly documented) position:
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The Russian president in May 1997, Boris Yeltsin, tried to portray this Act as legally binding, in order to sell it to domestic critics. He wrongly claimed that it gave Moscow a “veto” over NATO expansion (see conversation between Primakov and Secretary of State Albright):
1
7
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Well spotted
@stephenwertheim
When I found this quotation during m research, I thought it was stunning
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
@EmmaMAshford
@DrRadchenko
@biannagolodryga
NATO “expansion will leave [Ukraine] wedged between an Alliance it can probably never enter, and Russia.” — Richard Holbrooke, Sept. 1994, advocating NATO expansion despite the price for Ukraine
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Honored to be on the recommended reading list of the great
@dandrezner
with
@henryfarrell
and
@ANewman_forward
for our articles in the new issue of
@Journal_IS
#notparticularlyhumblebrag
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You have no idea. I was offline for about an hour to do an interview and...
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Thanks
@brik_t
!
It was an honor to speak to your group in Kyiv as part of the
#GlobalMinds4Ukraine
Solidarity Lecture Marathon, along with
@paulkrugman
,
@McFaul
,
@RidT
& others.
@yalepress
@YaleBooks
@EuropeAtHarvard
@DonGonyea
@YMonastyrskyi
@belferhistory
@KissingerCenter
2 weeks ago I talked to Mary Sarrote
@e_sarotte
about her book "Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate". This is the fantastic and very detailed book. I learned a lot about arguments about "NATO expansion" and many historical myths about it...🧵
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