Andrew S. Weiss
@andrewsweiss
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Vice President for Studies & James Family Chair @CarnegieEndow . Graphic novel out now! ACCIDENTAL CZAR: THE LIFE AND LIES OF VLADIMIR PUTIN
Washington, DC
Joined July 2010
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1/ My colleague
@eugene_rumer
and I have published a new essay in
@WSJ
calling for Western leaders to abandon magical thinking about Russia and to develop a credible, long-term strategy for supporting Ukraine and containing an emboldened, revisionist Russia.
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THREAD: Has anyone noticed the very disturbing overlap between Trump’s insistence on preventing his own staff from learning about discussions with Putin at the Hamburg G20 meeting in July 2017 and how he handled initial revelations about the infamous Trump Tower meeting? 1/
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THREAD: Things are not going well for Putin in Ukraine war. But slew of news today should remind everyone that Putin definitely knows how to build and exploit leverage. 1/x
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THREAD: The Mueller Report is conspicuously silent on the harm to US national security from the Trump team’s dalliances w Russian emissaries during 2015-2017, but a little-noticed DoJ filing last Friday sheds light on Mueller’s ongoing counter-intelligence (CI) investigation. 1/
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Hmm, is this a good time to remind folks that the Trump foreign policy aide who took Maria Butina to a Styx concert in Oct16 also engineered the change in GOP platform on arming
#Ukraine
? 🤔
@NatashaBertrand
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I don't say this lightly: every American should take the time to read these two paragraphs from Amb Yovanovitch's testimony to understand how corrupt interests have captured and poisoned our government and destroyed institutions like the State Department along the way.
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Put another way, shortly after the New York Times reached out to the White House to ask about a secret meeting with the Russians, Trump himself sought a secret meeting with the Russians. 18/
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1/ Stunning: Trump failed to disclose a large pending deal in Moscow while he ran for White House via
@CarolLeonnig
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The Kremlin twists the knife on collapse of US/Turkey relationship, mocks Trump/Erdogan "letter".
Kremlin spokesman Peskov: “You don’t often encounter such language in correspondence between heads of state. It’s a highly unusual letter,”
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h/t Former federal prosecutor who helped compile this timeline and series of as-yet unanswered questions END
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As Bremmer points out, Trump oddly doesn’t even inform his own staff afterwards that he’s had this second conversation with Putin. 9/
Most unusual thing about Trump’s nearly hour long private dinner conversation with Putin at the G20 in Hamburg is that he didn’t tell any of his advisors about it afterwards.
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Seven (!) foreign intel services spotted Russian spies' contacts w Trump team.: UK, Germany, France, Netherlands, Estonia, Australia, Poland
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Holy smokes. These Trump-inspired divergences in attitudes about Putin and Russia between GOP and Democratic voters are stunning: 31% of GOP respondents now "have confidence in Putin to do the right thing concerning world affairs." 1/2
Americans consistently have expressed little confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin. But Republicans are now 21 points more likely than Democrats to express confidence him (31% vs. 10%), the widest partisan gap in our polling.
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THREAD: Have we reached the point where Giuliani’s role in Ukraine-gate no longer looks like an outtake from a bad Coen Brothers movie and is creating a far more serious legal situation that should be setting off alarm bells inside DOJ comparable to James Comey's firing? 1/
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On the AF1 flight back to Washington the next day on July 8, 2017, Trump dictates the text of the now infamous, misleading statement (for Don Jr. to release) about the Trump Tower meeting.
@AshleyRParker
@CarolLeonnig
@PhilipRucker
@thamburger
10/
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The fact of this meeting is not publicly revealed until more than a week later after
@ianbremmer
hears about it from other G20 attendees. (The White House doesn’t officially confirm it until July 18, 2017.)
@steveholland1
8/
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All of this begs the question: What did Trump and Putin actually discuss at that impromptu one-on-one dinner meeting at the Hamburg G20 on July 7, 2017? 16/
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Moreover, why did they huddle together by themselves within hours of the White House learning that the at-that-point-still-secret Trump Tower meeting between Trump, Jr. and the Russians was about to become public? 17/
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Does Putin get accurate information from his generals? Does he even trust it? Impossible to say. But what we know for sure is that Putin has routinely used escalation in such situations to upend his opponents' best-laid plans. No reason to doubt that that's changed. END
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Video of Putin sharing an elevator ride 6 days ago w the chief doctor of Kommunarka hospital Denis Potsenko who tested positives for
#coronavirus
«Как больница? - Космос!»: Путин и главврач больницы в Коммунарке
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We now know from
@gregpmiller
that after the meeting Trump seizes the US interpreter’s notes and tells her not to brief senior NSC or State Department aides about the conversation with Putin. 6/
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On July 19, 2017 Trump repeats the false assertion that he talked to Putin about adoption in a conversation with
@peterbakernyt
,
@nytmike
and
@maggieNYT
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This is big.
(First high-level confirmation that Kremlin interfered in US mid-term election. Mattis seems to be forcing Trump’s hand to respond.)
Mattis at Reagan Library today on Russia: “There is no doubt the relationship has worsened. He (Putin) tried again to muck around in our elections this last month and we are seeing a continued effort along those lines.”
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Later that evening on July 7, 2017, during the formal G20 summit dinner, Trump seeks out Putin for another conversation. Putin’s interpreter is the only other participant. 7/
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Wow. Just wow.
US Intelligence Community's lead expert on election integrity Bill Evanina spells out how the teamwork between Trump and the Kremlin has morphed ahead of the 2020 election
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Right on cue: Wikileaks (aka Kremlin info ops proxy) wades into French presidential election on behalf of Putin favorite Marine Le Pen
3,630 documents from our archives on French presidential candidate François Fillon
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But as Anderson explains, “Russia’s efforts targeting the United States take a myriad of forms — it is, in essence, a numbers game. Not every intelligence campaign needs to be successful for Russia to have achieved its goals.” END
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This is getting ridiculous: US CENTCOM commander Gen Votel hasn’t been briefed yet on Trump-Putin conversation in Helsinki about teaming up to promote Syria refugee return 1/
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Take Putin's unexpected announcement that EU countries will now have to pay for natural gas shipments in rubles, not euros. That move, plus a Russian-directed shutdown of the Caspian Pipeline (1 mln/bpd), are pushing oil prices back to the $120 level today. 2/x
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Consider the following timeline: on July 7–8, 2017,Trump attends the G-20 summit in Hamburg, Germany the site of his first face to face encounter with Putin. 2/
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This is nuts. Kremlin spox Peskov says Trump accepted Putin's offer to send a flight w
#coronavirus
medical equipment to US. Details willl be handled at the working level. Hopefully someone will tell Trump that he's playing right into a propaganda ploy
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Seen against this backdrop, it’s clear that the conduct outlined in Volume I of the Mueller Report created enormous damage to US national security. Recall that none of what Mueller covers in the CI investigation requires mustering proof of a crime beyond a reasonable doubt. 17/
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Don Jr.’s statement to
@nytimes
emphasizes: “We primarily discussed a program about the adoption of Russian children” at the meeting with Natalia Veselnitskaya 11/
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On July 11, 2017 the same
@nytimes
team breaks the story that Don Jr was told in advance that Veselnitskaya intended to provide dirt on the Hillary Clinton campaign at the behest of the Russian government. Don Jr. replies: "I love it." 13/
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On the afternoon of July 7, 2017, Trump and Putin, accompanied only by Rex Tillerson, Sergei Lavrov and their interpreters, meet for 2 and 1/2 hours. 5/
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Just as Biden lands in Europe, Moscow is trying to damage some of the much-touted Western unity over how to punish the Kremlin under pressure. It's probably a manageable challenge for US and Germany policymakers but hardly desirable under the circumstances. 4/x
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Serious question: has any American who cooperated with Russian (or Soviet) intelligence ever received a presidential pardon before this week? Trump now has 3 notches on his belt (Manafort, Roger Stone & George Papadopoulos)
#coincidence
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Wow. AG William Barr met in July with Dmytro Firtash's lawyers dIGenova/Toensing to discuss his case. That's roughly the same timeframe when Trump/Giuliani were asking Zelenskyy to work w Barr on conspiracy theories about Ukraine's role in the 2016 election and the Bidens. 1/2
After taking on Firtash’s case, Toensing and diGenova secured a rare face-to-face meeting with Attorney General William P. Barr and other Justice Department officials. Barr declined to intercede.
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On the morning of July 7, 2017, the New York Times informs the White House--for the first time--that it has learned about the Trump Tower meeting between Don Jr., Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort and a Russian lawyer with Russian government connections, Natalya Veselnitskaya. 3/
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Doesn’t get more pointed than this.
#Mueller
: “There were multiple systemaric efforts [by Russia] to interfere with our election and that deserves the attention of every American.”
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In the same interview, Trump also floats the idea that there was nothing inappropriate about his senior-most campaign officials meeting with foreign emissaries who wanted to help his campaign. “Who wouldn’t have taken a meeting like that?” 15/
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The
@nytimes
story about the Trump Tower meeting appears later that same day (July 8, 2017)
@Jo_Becker
@mattapuzzo
@adamgoldmanNYT
12/
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In short, the West is entering a pain contest with Vladimir Putin. Can Joe Biden tolerate an uninterrupted spike in energy prices and the pass-through to inflation from other disruptions in global commodities markets and supply chains? 8/x
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Yet Western leaders are being stampeded by public anger. Every single day they are being forced to "do something" to hurt Putin. Their main response is to impose sweeping sanctions on Russia. The White House and the EU will highlight that during Biden's trip. 6/x
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The New York Times asks the White House to comment. 4/
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The bigger question for Biden, Scholz, et al is how to manage this crisis over the long-term and to deal with the limitations of the West's toolkit. What if Putin refuses to slow down his devastating attacks on major cities across Ukraine and kills huge number of civilians? 5/x
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The moral imperative to support Ukraine in their defense against a Russian invasion is 100% unquestionable. Yet Ukraine's remarkable s/t successes on the battlefield may not immediately impact Kremlin decisionmaking about how much punishment Russia is willing to absorb. 9/x
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But money is always fungible (esp if you're in the oil/gas business!), and there is a big timing mismatch between the imposition of sanctions and the impact on the Kremlin. How long will it take to starve the Russian war machine? 7/x
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He is a surprisingly visible figure who criticized the Trump team’s “calculated, brutal” attacks on Mueller, the FBI, and the US intelligence/law enforcement communities, which he described as “unfair, unwise and disgusting” in a 2018 op-ed. 7/
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It spells out in stark terms why Butina posed a threat to US national security with a heavy focus on three types of intelligence activities: “access agents,” “spot-and-assess” operations, and “back channel lines of communication.” 3/
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Pro tip for Russia, China, and co: Trump is not asking other countries to dig up dirt on Biden, he’s asking them to make up dirt.
President Trump says he wants both Ukraine and China to investigate Joe Biden and his son
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Think for a moment about everyone in the Mueller report who had unusual contacts with Russians or sketchy figures (or knowledge thereof). It’s a very long list--Trump, Don Jr., Ivanka, Kushner, Mike Flynn, Manafort, Cohen, Bannon, Erik Prince, Roger Stone just to name a few. 13/
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Germany's Olaf Scholz announced in a speech today that Europe should not impose sanctions on Russian oil/gas, raising the spectre of massive job losses and a Europe-wide recession. 3/x
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DOJ explains why Trumpworld's enthusiasm for back-channels was so reckless and ripe for exploitation. “Such channels bypass open channels of diplomacy and can be used to win concessions or influence positions that contradict declared official policies articulated by govt's.” 11/
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Back to the filing. It explains the strategic rationale behind Moscow’s efforts to penetrate US political circles and conduct influence operations. DOJ’s concerns are non-trivial and go to the heart of the Kremlin’s activities and targeting of the Trump team in 2015-2017. 8/
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The DOJ damage assessment is grim. These types of interactions created a reservoir of information about vulnerabilities that, Anderson explains, “is of substantial intelligence value to the Russian govt and…" 14/
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"...Russian intelligence services will be able to use this information for years to come in their efforts to spot and assess Americans who may be susceptible to recruitment as foreign intelligence assets.” 15/
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Wow. Without fanfare, a comprehensive archive of White House documents covering nearly all of Bill Clinton’s meetings and phone calls with Boris Yeltsin from 1993-1999 has been declassified and is now online. 1/
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On April 19 the DC US Attorney’s Office and DOJ’s National Security Division submitted a sentencing memorandum in the Maria Butina case. 2/
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Curiously, very few people have picked up on an addendum to the filing written by the fmr head of FBI’s Counterintelligence Division, Robert Anderson. It’s easy enough to extrapolate from Anderson some elements of the CI assessment that is a central part to Mueller's inquiry 4/
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Anderson is scathing about the impact of back channel amateur hour, which can create "commensurate harm to the US, incl harm to the integrity of the US’ political processes and internal government dealings, as well as to US foreign policy interests and national security" 16/
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Per DOJ there was nothing clownish about the activities of Butina and her Moscow-based supervisor Nikolai Torshin. Ditto for Veselnitskaya and the Trump Tower meeting. It also doesn’t matter if these people were freelancers who simply scored meetings with big-name figures. 12/
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DOJ stresses that Butina’s activities bear the hallmarks of a spot-and-assess operation: “While completely innocuous in other contexts, access agents play a key
role for foreign intelligence services in the conduct of influence operations. ..." 9/
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Deeply impressed by George Kent's personal courage and professional integrity. His account of challenging a State Dept lawyer re Pompeo's inaccurate public statements about alleged Congressional bullying of career diplomats is riveting.
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Kudos to LTC Alex Vindman for some very astute use of ALL CAPS in his testimony. “My family fled the USSR when I was 3 1/2 years old....I am a patriot & it is my sacred duty and honor to advance and defend OUR country, irrespective of party or politics.”
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Anderson worked on many of the Bureau’s most prominent counter-intelligence cases of the past 20 years. 6/
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1/x So many memorable passages in this remarkably candid interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces.
Take time to read the whole thing. Here's couple of highlights.
@TheEconomist
@shashj
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"...Access agents mayor may not be witting—and may be somewhat witting—about the intent behind the foreign government’s taskings.” DOJ explains why the fact Butina didn't act like a covert intelligence operative is actually beside the point. 10/
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Robert Anderson, whose declaration appears on pp 24-28, is no run of the mill figure. 5/
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At least we now know the true identity of the Three Amigos who were shaping Trump's actual policy on Ukraine: Vladimir Putin, Rudy Giuliani, and Viktor Orban
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THREAD: What to make of Putin’s under-the radar initiative to use the
#coronavirus
crisis to normalize US-Russian relations? Putin and Trump spoke 3 times in past week. That’s the most active level of dialogue during Trump’s entire presidency--and the one w biggest results. 1/X
Telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump: developments on the oil market, countering the coronavirus
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Bears repeating: the Kremlin cares more about throwing the US into political chaos than covering up Trump’s misdeeds. Peskov just confirmed the gist of the Mueller/Cohen plea deal
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One glaring omission in Intelligence Community's assessment of Russian meddling in 2020 election is fact that Trump himself repeatedly peddled anti-Biden materials created by Russian intelligence operatives including at Sept 29 presidential debate and via his Twitter account 1/2
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Longer, haunting video from gonzo Russian military "journalists" strolling around hastily abandoned US military facility in
#Mandij
and reveling in the humiliation of US withdrawal from northern Syria h/t
@INechepurenko
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This is, uh, helpful.
Veteran KGB officer now serving as senior parliamentarian speaks out against Trump impeachment.
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“The Cold War was littered w Kremlin spies the West failed to uncover b/c Western agents assumed they were too obvious, absurd, drunk, dim-witted, or low-level. Naive and ignorant people can get in too deep when manipulated by pros.”
@john_sipher
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1/ Trump's "nut job" Comey comments shouldn't overshadow fact he also threw
#Ukraine
under bus in mtg w Russians
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Exciting news!
👇👇👇👇👇👇
We are pleased to announce that Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch is joining the Carnegie Endowment as a senior fellow with
@CarnegieRussia
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The Axios interview is even worse than it appeared at first glance: Trump defends Russia supplying weapons to the Taliban (!). "Well, we supplied weapons when they were fighting Russia." Who on earth talks like this?
@jonathanvswan
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1/ Is this what collusion looks like? WSJ outs GOP consultant who got 2.5 GB of Dem secrets from Russians via
@WSJ
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Never lose sight of this.
Jill Stein's vote totals in the 3 states that decided the 2016 election (MI, PA, WI) were bigger than Trump's margin of victory in each.
#KremlinSupportMatters
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ADDENDUM The Reuters team which broke the story about Firtash’s ties to Giuliani’s associates deserves a majorshoutout
@AramRoston
@karen_freifeld
@polinaivanovva
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Lavrov just told
@ewong
that Trump did not raise the election interference issue in the Oval Office
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"There’s a growing perception within Belarus that something significant has changed in the nation of 9.4 million bordering Russia, Ukraine and the European Union that’s long been known for its political docility."
How a $1.8m expressionist oil painting called Eva became a protest meme in the most Soviet state still standing,
#Belarus
. My story with
@kudrytski
via
@bpolitics
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Putin is going full Milosevic in his speech, praising as heroes the leaders of the disorganized and bloodthirsty fanatics he unleashed on Ukraine starting in 2014. No way back from this…
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Somehow Jill Stein's testimonial in Red Square hyping "wonderful, inspiring" visit to Moscow as a presidential candidate never loses its ability to shock
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It's simply breathtaking to see a career US intelligence officer readily agreeing with a Russian ambassador that the sanctions imposed on FSB/GRU in late Dec 2016 for their role in 2016 election interference were actually aimed at Trump.
Still astonishing that Gen Flynn, who worked in intelligence for so long, apparently did not think that Russian ambassador's phone might be monitored.
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THREAD: Have we reached the point where Rudy Giuliani’s role in Ukraine-gate no longer looks like a bad outtake from a Coen Brothers movie but rather is something that should be setting off alarm bells inside DOJ comparable to James Comey's firing? 1/
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Simply no precedent for Trump's cmts on Putin meeting. Either a US head of state is in Kremlin's pocket or he has no idea what he's doing.
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Gen James Clapper speaking
@CarnegieEndow
says he’s seen plenty of horrible stuff in his 50-year intelligence career, but “nothing disturbed me as much as what I saw the Russians do” in the 2016 election
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@CarolLeonnig
@NeilMacFarquhar
@TimOBrien
8/ Fun fact: Sater has known Trump's personal attorney Michael Cohen since high school
via
@riceid
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Joe Biden is (rightfully) elevating the importance of
#Ukraine
in US foreign policy more than 4 years after Trump threw the country under the bus
Today, President-elect Joe Biden took part in separate congratulatory calls with the leaders of France, Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom.
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Bear with me as I lay out some facts. They exceed the unreality of a Gary Shteyngart novel. Yet based on my reading of these facts, several questions readily jump out. I don’t have all of the answers to these questions but think it’s worth asking them. 2/
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The sound of the US-led liberal international order being shattered
#ParisAgreement
Merkel: We can't rely on the US anymore. I have experienced this in the last days. We Europeans should take destiny in our own hands. ~
@BILD
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Pic of
@DrJillStein
at dinner w Putin,
@realDonaldTrump
pal Gen Mike Flynn in Moscow in Dec 2015 at RT anniv party
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Always bears repeating: Russian interference in our democracy is still a thing.
Happy 4th of July, everyone.
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Interesting that Bannon is in the room for Putin-Trump call. No one from State Dept.
#JustSayin
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@aviswanatha
@rebeccaballhaus
In reality ties betw Parnas/Fruman and Firtash run much deeper. They were “working for Firtash" before "Parnas joined [Firtash’s] legal team…Firtash has paid their expenses in the past. Their costs include private jet charters..& foreign travel to Vienna.”
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Creepy
@DrJillStein
video from Moscow gushing over Russian support for human rights, dinner w Putin, RT anniv party
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