Digvijoy Chatterjee
@digvijoy_c
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Nassim since the pandemic
1/ sounded the alarm in jan 2020
2/ talked about efficiacy of masks
3/ recognized vaccines importance and safety
busted
4/ ivermectin bs
5/ vitamin-d bs
6/ fat = covid fit= nothing simpletons
7/ covid is an old people problem
and many more ..
@nntaleb
LESSON: Trust nothing you read on Twitter, unless you can confirm from other sources or a direct quote from people concerned.
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When asked questions about contemporary subjects at
#RWRI
Nassim very often says “It takes 15-20 years for me to answer questions on new topics”
No, I don't want to "learn fast", in any subject. I don't want shortcuts. If I don't enjoy the subject, I don't want to learn it; and if I enjoy it, I want to prolong the pleasure. I avoid what exam-takers do: I trade speed for depth.
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Highly recommend for anyone who wants to cut through the BS and pique your intellectual curiosity on ChatGPT and neural nets.
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@nntaleb
you already said this in antifragile citing statistical arguments, now the doctor who started it 40 years ago admits he is wrong.
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This is the whole reason
@nntaleb
abhors prizes, the guy who blew up the banks in GFC ..gets the prize instead as a savior of the banks.
BREAKING NEWS:
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2022 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Ben S. Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig “for research on banks and financial crises.”
#NobelPrize
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@ylecun
@Andercot
“scientific” reasons are not all , from Antifragile: naturally born weights have a logic to them: we use feet, miles, pounds, inches, furlongs, stones (in Britain) because these are remarkably intuitive and we can use them with a minimal expenditure of cognitive effort
@nntaleb
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Oooffff… classic
@nntaleb
stuff, give back 20 years of wins in 3 months !
Tiger Global. This is the end. You cannot lose 2/3 of your total gains for LPs over 20+ yrs in a matter of months and come out of it.
Not dunking - just calling it how it is.
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@nntaleb
One of these fellows was asked on their live video AMA: “if you are rich and have retired why not help us for free” , and after some cornering his reply was I need a steady income stream .
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I am 42 and still learning calculus( started at 16 ). Only in my late thirties I realized I knew the algorithms but not why they work. Take the long road always.
I finished calculus in 8th grade. Many other kids could do the same but they were never given the opportunity.
This is how my parents beat the system to make sure I always had the opportunity to learn.
Thanks, mom and dad!
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What's up with Serbians and their obsession with Novak Djokovic. You don't have sovereignty over Australia .
Get over it fellas he is an entertainer at best and a scumbag at worst ...let's not put him on a pedestal.
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@INArteCarloDoss
@nntaleb
So first spend 5 years to become super fit , which would add 20-30 years to your life span , and then spend the next 50 years getting erudite , put another way if age > 50 then no hope for erudition.
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Here is the Lex Fridman of the Enterpneur newsletter world !!
How to become the main character in your life.
The Character Alarm Method:
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“.I emphasised on how we are nurturing a spirit of enterprise and risk taking among our youth”
When
@nntaleb
spoke to
@sanjeevsanyal
last time he was in India he said the same thing
Want to change the world, start a business and especially so if you have rich parents .
Professor
@nntaleb
has interesting perspectives on many issues and I had the opportunity to hear them on some of those subjects. He was greatly interested in India’s development strides. I emphasised on how we are nurturing a spirit of enterprise and risk taking among our youth.
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Getting reunited with my books after 6 months , what a great feeling !!
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@nntaleb
or as mentioned previously by you: “i have never seen a nitpicker catch a serious flaw in my papers/ books”
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In the last few months I left all group chats, stopped attending zoom calls, heavily reduced twitter usage and now only mostly meet people in person, and hey look 👇
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Remembering
@jaffer_ali1
the great businessman, in the middle of Covid , 2020 he hustled tirelessly to the point of weeks of sleep exhaustion, to deliver thousands of liters of hand sanitizers . I still have a few bottles left . Rest in peace 🙏
@trishankkarthik
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Current reading and re-reading
@pattersonscott
is also a must read and re-read, didn’t buy “Quants” because some of the characters in that book are disgusting to me ( they reflect the profanity of finance ).
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“Our systems are designed to audit commands like these to prevent mistakes like this, but a bug in that audit tool prevented it from properly stopping the command” — fb postmortem..
@nntaleb
reminded me of your errors on errors …paper with
@DrCirillo
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In Strand Bookstore NYC, noticed a book called “The joy of JOMO( joy of missing out )” and I didn’t buy it.
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Feels like a rich people live longer story( vacations 4x a year is just a side effect of being rich )
"Recent scientific studies indicate that individuals who vacation more than four times per year exhibit significantly longer lifespans."
#health
#statistics
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Wrong: we also need to talk about all innovations and “superior” technologies that people resisted and they never saw light of day. Classic survivorship bias.
A great read for the new year if you want to understand why every technology in history from coffee, to stem cells, to radio, to TV, to the printing press, to the Internet, to bicycles have faced resistance and why in the end that resistance always fails.
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Man I was lucky to be part of
#RWRI
13 the last in person RWRI . What an atmosphere..so much fun in class and more so after hours .
@grumpyinnovator
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Meet in person whenever you can.
This photo from Sep 9th last year, and now
@jaffer_ali1
is not with us anymore.
I would have never realized what a gentleman he was if not for this encounter. God bless his soul . I miss Jaffer guys
@chasechandler
@dzviovich
@XanderSquats
.
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when you shoot heroine your neighbors don’t die .
NYC 2022: Where you can watch heroine get shot up on the streets in broad daylight in once-safe neighborhoods, but an unvaxxed 5-year-old can’t eat a sandwich in a cafe.
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As a person who started as a 19 year old who loved programming and never studied it in college.. this is a total burn 😭.
If you want to make people miserable, pay them (generously and predictably) for their hobbies.
#BedofProcrustes
3rd Ed.
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kind of connected
Crypto culture: synthetics currencies, synthetic contracts, synthetic possessions (NFT),..., ergo synthetic wombs.
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@nntaleb
The surest sign of failure in life is one bragging about their high school achievements — bed of procrustes.
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Mathematicians have no idea how ugly the world of software engineering is. fuhgetabout AI , one key engineer leaves the firm means it takes a week to fix what they could have resolved in 2 hrs.
About 500 million people worldwide by 2025, will not have a job, in a skill they are trained for, all because of automation and advancement in the field of AI. Software development jobs will face almost 90% decline by 2023 in line with typists.
#artificalintelligence
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Speculating that Maestro
@nntaleb
power laws video is delayed in post production as he is making sure the sound is not clear so people have to concentrate 😂😂
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@nntaleb
china declares all crypto currency transactions illegal. since you sold bitcoin is ……😂
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Professional sports is so sad.
This is by far the coldest thing Djokovic has ever said.
This is what it takes to reach the top, the discipline is crazy.
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@nntaleb
in his book ( memoirs of a fractalist) he explained when he wrote the ecole entrance exam, he solved an incredibly difficult triple integral by using his spatial imagination that the result is a sphere, and then using algebra to get there once he knew the answer.
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Wolfram is the Seneca, Thales, Fat Tony and Nero Tulip of the AI/ML world.
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@nntaleb
Glad to hear you are ok! You are such a hero Nassim taking all those risks for your parent ( in a time where most parents are banished to old age homes )
@trishankkarthik
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The sad thing about being in a corporate rat race is people viciously obsess about who gets promoted, long after leaving the firm where they did or didn’t get promoted.
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Leaving Chennai in a new generation of super fast indian trains named Vande Bharat.
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#RWRI
PPP is the best mathematical backup to RWRI . Thanks to Raphael Douady and
@DrCirillo
for excellent classes. Every single attendee I talked to is very very excited to be able to "do" for themselves what they were only "shown" at RWRI.
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At Sydney today flaneuring
Meeting
@AmerAssaleh
and
@joonya__
at Melbourne tomorrow . Super psyched.
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Bengaluru T2 might be the best aesthetics intl.. airport in the world.
What stood out for me was that the architecture is not your usual soulless glass boxes optimization crap. It’s high dimensional with lots of life ( plants / flowers ), you feel alive staring at the ceiling.
🚨 Bengaluru Airport T2 wins UNESCO’s Prix Versailles Award.
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@nntaleb
Off topic : There is literally nothing distinguishing these people from each other. the point you keep making about west vs east being a fake separation is so apparent here
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@nntaleb
@BrugiatiDario
your one tip of always go somewhere where you have a friend or relative ( instead of textbook tourist spots ), has vastly increased my satisfaction from vacations.
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In a long enough timeline you should be left with friends who can viciously oppose your ideas, bang the table in disgust, still get drunk together later that night
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It’s a solution looking for a problem:
It is how the MBAs take over your organic project planning with buzzwords like “scrum” and “agile”, get paid billions, injects hundreds of non developers micromanaging devs, and overall hugely ruin productivity right under your nose !
Scrum is a cancer.
I've been writing software for 25 years, and nothing renders a software team useless like Scrum does.
Some anecdotes:
1. They tried to convince me that Poker is a planning tool, not a game.
2. If you want to be more efficient, you must add process, not
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1 week in NYC, 2 more to go !!
Feels good to be re-united with old friends, hikes, restaurants, bars.
New addition: Biked for 1 hr in NYC yesterday, exhilarating experience dealing with the traffic . Biking is too exciting.
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@Codie_Sanchez
If you had 8 figure businesses and you like touring the world, why are you on twitter all day doling generic platitudes to half a million followers ?
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A sudden loss in the family is a great opportunity to remind oneself about the importance of near and dear ones. As
@TMessi_1
very astutely observed , vvv few people in the world care about you.
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Until the late 1990s, a "startup" was something that could eventually pay off w/future profits.
Since then, a startup has been a package that pays you back when you sell to other investors who, in turn, hope to sell to other investors by a mechanism known as "funding".
@nntaleb
🚨 120+ Indian startups laid off 34,780 employees since 2022. (Inc42)
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With
@AmerAssaleh
@joonya__
great night mostly lots of whisky drinking.
At Sydney today flaneuring
Meeting
@AmerAssaleh
and
@joonya__
at Melbourne tomorrow . Super psyched.
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@nntaleb
Nassim you have to do a longgggish mooc on this or a blog post and mooc. this point needs to be understood by non mathematical folks (me included )
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In Hong Kong looks beautiful lovely hilly city with beaches and bays and great Negronis cc:
@golchha_J
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Life is too eff*ing high dimensional to box peoples success into engg disciplines.
Tell your friend the best revenge is to be much much richer than miss “CS” 20 years from now.
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Hey it’s “Lecturing birds how to fly all over again” .
Academia think they create “science” but in most cases the truth is the reverse . cc
@nntaleb
@jeremymstamper
@elonmusk
@bneiluj
@how_many_roads_
Well, if it's not published, it's definitely not science.
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@nntaleb
Our friend
@sean_a_mcclure
wrote a non mathematical piece gets for those want to get the deeper aspects of the argument.
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@RuxandraTeslo
@nntaleb
Yes you are right, some amount of neomania needed but can’t bill the taxpayers after, gotta eat your own cooking
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My only measure of success is how much free time you have — BoP
@golchha_J
The price of freedom.
( retired racehorses are now sea horses living their best life in Nihi Sumba, a forgotten island in Indonesia )
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KPMG audited SVB
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Saw the Netflix series Kala Pani , a stark reminder of Nassim Taleb saying “Covid was only a rehearsal”, the real pandemic will be far worse. The cast and story line sends chills down one spine .
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Back in HK early morning today ! Great 3 weeks in NYC .
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@nntaleb
A very good man died today ! Feels empty inside. He will be missed for a very very long time .
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@nntaleb
Scathing Nassim, reminds of Yogi Berra ism: I go to other peoples funerals so they come to mine!
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When you talk about athletes dying from vaxx side effects ...you must compare vs the control , 617 deaths from 2014-2018 !
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@nntaleb
Nassim you had once mentioned on FB, that to do true research you really have to hate it , in order to not be sucked by wrong inferences . These right wingers are set on goals a-priori and then use any research to justify it.
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@SaadMaan15
@nntaleb
Exactly This is my problem with anyone praising China, Iran, India … indiscriminately …after immigrating to the usa, enjoying the comforts of a free country while saying how great the place they left is.
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people who don’t care dont go about telling everyone they don’t care
you can tell how rich someone is by how often they talk about money
#bedofprocrustes
Rich people don’t need to tell you how rich they are.
Honest people don’t need to tell you how honest they are.
Smart people don’t need to tell you how smart they are.
Someone pretending to be does.
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There is going to be a lot of Carloses next year. Happy holidays friends an be careful out there .
( A little sneak peak at FBR right before wrapping it up for a younger friends christmas gift )
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@nntaleb
The much more elegant
It takes five years to learn how to make money; and twenty-five to learn how to not lose it.
#BedofProcrustes
, 3rd Ed.
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When I put my profile photo and full name today( after 3 years of anonymity)
A friend asked: So do you have f*ck you money now?
Ans: No I finally learned to keep my mouth shut and make lots of money.
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@nntaleb
Looking for wisdom from modern education is like looking for love in bordellos —inspired by bed of Procrustes.
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i fully understand this yet still enjoy watching the extremely optimized for one task entertainment bonanza called olympics.
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@IBlackmailLands
@PTetlock
If some one claims they are empirical, and their opponent supposedly tosses out pretentious proofs , well those “pretentious” proofs were accepted by the forecasting journal …
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Ok this is pretty disappointing that our “Rational VC” friends think Tate the disgusting lowlife pimp who abuses women and swindles helpless men is antifragile. WRONG !
@Cobratate
This is a pretty effective example of becoming Antifragile. You have the ability to speak your mind, not only because you are not “controlled” by any “gate-keeper” as Tate says, but because you actually gain from your views, and especially if your views are counter-cultural or
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A true artisan cares about every copy of his product. MBA advice would be focus on the big stuff and ignore petty complaints like this, to which maestro would say “ yeah f*ck that” .
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Found out this morning that the India travel ban exempts students !. its like the coronavirus doesnt spread via young kids wanting to study at presitigious ivy league universities.
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@RonaldLagnado
From Mark: Losing 50% one year and making 100% the next, with an (arithmetic) average of +25%, gets you right back where you started by the end of those two years. The volatility tax transformed what looked impressive into a not-so-impressive 0% compound (or geometric) return
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Back to USA, was vv excited got hold of these puppies that don’t ship to India .
@trishankkarthik
@exergiovanni
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@nntaleb
May be something on your 1+a, 1- a trick. and how smallest of errors in estimations leads to fat tails ?
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@paulportesi
The only time you should be worried about a company when the ceo has to come out and a make a public statement that they are fine. Learned from the maestro. 😇
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Woke up at 11:30 am today. First thought after the ultimate measure of freedom and success is the complete lack of schedules .
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