Amer Assaleh عامر
@AmerAssaleh
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Canaanite from Syria who is 9.67% right & working on reducing it to 1.73% @AmerAssaleh @mastodon .sdf.org
Australia
Joined May 2013
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What's been happening in
#Gaza
has shown me that the number of psychopaths among us is a lot higher than I imagined.
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What a fucking insight to the Antifragile phenomena.
Everyone listens to this:
"If you've had a little bit of disorder and you were not harmed by it, it means you didn't have enough of it." -
@nntaleb
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You spend many years learning a subject, then you get introduced to Nassim Taleb (
@nntaleb
) and you spend yet more years unlearning what you've learned
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What noise do to signals.
"More data means more information, but it also means more false information." -
@nntaleb
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it seems that
@realDonaldTrump
understands
@nntaleb
's IYI
@realDonaldTrump
This 45 seconds is the key to stability in the Middle East. Send US politicians to the beach. We will all be safer.
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If you follow Nassim
@nntaleb
because he is right then you are wrong.
His main idea is about how to be wrong most of the time.
I follow him because he's MAGNIFICENTLY capable of shaking any theory/idea by injecting dynamics into it & yet coming with a way to live with this fact
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Says the Socrates of our age.
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nassim is the kind of fucking courageous people humanity needs
The model is below; I have noproblem hiring investigators to get AlQaeda operatives in DC think tanks
#skininthegame
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I finally got to read this. Pinker is upset with Nassim for "not acknowledging their similar mindsets."
I don't know what else I can do to annoy
@nntaleb
more than tweeting this 😁
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When a bully threatens you, you either break his nose or get your nose broken every morning
2) For those slow in getting it: threatening with a nuclear strike is not deterrence. It is a threat. A threat needs to be treated as an attack.
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Via Negativa
"Figure out what you don't want and avoid it, and you'll get what you do want."
— Charlie Munger
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The Maestro
@nntaleb
finishes every mini lecture with 'thank you for listening to me'.
There is no sufficient way to thank you Nassim for being who you are.
و يلي بشوفك بعين شوفو بالتنتين
One day the time might come.
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heuristic: when
@nntaleb
describe something to be bullshit the odds are overwhelmingly it's bullshit
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This...
Cc
@nntaleb
Prague's smallest street is so narrow it has crossing lights to walk through 🚸🚦
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My neighbourhood Kassa Damascus, Syria on the 23rd of Dec 2022
Merry Christmas to everyone.
And F**K ISIS.
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It took me 2 months to learn the basics of Wolfram Language (thx to
@trishankkarthik
advice) and replicated the SAFE HAVEN charts. It should not take me more than 30 more years to replicate
@nntaleb
's STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS.
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"You are not getting the point that in risk we don't give a fuck what people in "medical sciences" do, math prevails. kapish?" -
@nntaleb
My talk Monday at U Penn School of Med
Lancet study on statins was 'fundamentally flawed'
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I studied in Syria.. this is 100% correct
Thanks to Arabism, Syrian students are completely deprived of their Hellenistic contributions (less so in Lebanon). An entire swath of pre-Islamic history has been blotted out.
1000 years of Hellenism erased by the Arabists.
Below is the list of Greek-Levantine thinkers.
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From now on instead of "I block idiots" Nassim will be like "you can go date Anna"
An impressive selection criterion, for those who know someone who knows someone I've blocked.
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A man always has two reasons for doing anything: a good reason and the real reason. - J.P. Morgan.
It's when you hear the narrative, that's the alarm bell.
Someone needs to explain it to you it ain't about the explanation.
It's the need to convince.
That's their payoff space.
So be careful of the evidence, the know, more importantly the narrative, that's where the harm is.
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In the last two weeks, I inspired three people to read 'Incerto': an accountant, an interior designer, and a waitress.
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Speculation: one day
@nntaleb
might revise this and turn it into it's own 'silver rule':
"What matters in life isn't how often one is 'wrong' about outcomes, but how much one loses when one is wrong"
P.S. my Eng. might not reflect the right meaning, but you get the point.
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@nntaleb
How many of Nassim's followers have zoomed in to read some of the titles? It can't be just me!
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38 out of the 1st 39 replies/quotes to
@nntaleb
tweet are attacks on Nassim
39 days of war. So far Israel has killed 100 UN workers, >11K Palestinians, including ~5K children.
But no HAMAS fighter captured, as far as we can tell, and rather low number of "eliminated".
39 days.
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"The Incerto is not a recipe but a process. If you realise something is fragile, do something about it"
@nntaleb
Nassim leads by example when he publicly changes his mind when necessary. Yet people attack him for doing it. IDIOTS.
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90.6045% of what
@nntaleb
said in the incerto is known by almost everyone. He annoyingly knew how to articulate it and make it rigour. An astonishing guy
P.S. Those who say that Nassim followers cant help it but to tell him how good he is everyday r permitted to quote this tweet
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When Nassim spots a fragility, I will shut my mouth and open my ears.
A system that requires continuous, pervasive, and unremitting misrepresentation and propaganda (via AIPAC, Hasbara, and manipulation of Western minds) to hide its attributes will eventually collapse.
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Once Nassim says it, it feels so obvious. He's bloody good at observing and articulating phenomena.
Anything artificially obtained via skillful, vigilant, and relentless lobbying eventually falls apart, ending up worse than it started.
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@iman_olya
@nntaleb
"The Incerto is not a recipe but a process. If you realise something is fragile, do something about it"
@nntaleb
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You don't need to deadlift to be a man. You don't even need to be a man to be a man
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It's painfully funny how many times Nassim needs to be remind people that life is dynamic not static.
I hear some idiots arguing that Biden, while slow, can operate and make some decisions. They don't get that life is dynamic not static: next year he will be worse than he is today; and the year after that... Absence of degradation would be a true tail event.
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My home, my neighbourhood and my church (Church Of Holy Cross). Two minutes walking distance from where I lived the first 35 years of my life.
🇸🇾☦ Good Friday procession in Damascus, Syria
موكب الجمعة العظيمة في دمشق، سوريا
#ChristiansMENA
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my 8 y old kid just told me that we (humans) are more important than anything except the earth because earth is where we live..
He said he just thought about it (God told him)
he is smarter than many ppl
cc:
@nntaleb
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#RWRI19
Day3: It's too f*ing dangerous to mix
@financequant
&
@nntaleb
with a pinch of Wolfram. Cellular Automata and Fat Tails—a nuclear reaction. Now I have to reread Nassim, read A New Kind of Science, educate myself on tech stuff, and and...
I dare anyone to argue differently.
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@GoujianofYue
@nntaleb
He means that if you were not harmed by it, there is a good chance that you are antifragile to that kind of stressor.. so get more of it.
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They call him arrogant because as he always explains has no friends when it comes to objectivity.
People don't understand that the only way to befriend Nassim is on a moral basis, principles and mutual respect.
If NNT is arrogant we’re fucked.
Show me another account with 10% of his followers that regularly interacts, responds, teaches and follows small accounts on this site.
People mistake telling truth to charlatans and idiots with arrogance nowadays?
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Maestro Nassim Nicholas Taleb
@nntaleb
, could you please tell Mr. Mark Spitznagel to go back to writing! as his Safe Haven is missing about 2000 pages and I need them asap.
Thank you.
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The quality of advice is measured by the cost of following it blindly.
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The best way to hurt
@nntaleb
is to eat squid ink pasta while he's not. To hurt him more, make him watch
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@Ali_HAH
@nntaleb
@NachoOliveras
One can be with the US against Putin, with Putin against ISIS and against the US in Iraq.. etc. All at the same time. The difference is that you can live in the US and be against the US but can't be in Russia and against Putin.. if you have doubts try it for yourself.
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Do you people understand the risk this man keeps exposing himself to?... Chapeau Nassim.
The Gaza Events, 1
Imbeciles argue the "Christ was not Palestinian (meaning not related to TODAY'S Palestinians) because the Romans named the land 100y later".
Triboro Bridge was renamed "RFK Bridge" in 2008 so all your pictures of it from 2006 now evaporated.
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The best attitude problem ever
The Lebanese have an attitude problem. That's what they do after wars. Pict on left was after the Hezb-Israel war of 2006.
The best revenge is living well.
BTW, I am on my way there (4th time since Oct 7)
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Anyone out there would like to lecture these birds on flying?
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It's funny how many are upset with Nassim's tweet, even though he doesn't share an opinion in it. The funniest part is how they think they are so smart for catching him posting something they think is stupid.
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@nntaleb
@AskarTurk2
Don"t trust Nassim when he tells you it was a joke. If you follow Nassim's instructions to drink arak before and during every meal you wouldn't even know if you are sick or not.. you probably won't even know about the existence of a pandemic
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2024 and nothing changed; Lindy.
Syrian sweets, like baklava and honey pastries, are displayed in a bakery in the 1950s.
📷: David Boyer | Nat Geo
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I met this guy today: 41 with a Phd in psychology. Has no clinic. NEVER seen a patient. BUT he has students. He TEACHES at uni. I had an allergic reaction and left before I finish my coffee and
@nntaleb
is responsible for my allergy. I'll send you the bill for the coffee Nassim.
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Although I don't understand the subject Nassim and
@normonics
are talking about BUT I admire how
@nntaleb
ALWAYS jumps in without any invitation to support someone he respects and fight like a savage warrior. A very rare property of honor nowdays
The Santa Fe Institute in response to
@normonics
questioning theoretical models using... extremely polite language.
It is "aggressive and dismissive, accusatory and unwilling to DYOR" to question models?
Soon one will be also pathologized for not believing their BS?
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@nntaleb
@HomegrownJoan2
@trishankkarthik
In the East Med you'd address anyone who is visibly older than you 'uncle' and 'aunti' because you must treat them as such. In the new era Nassim is talking about people don't even respect their own uncles and aunties
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I still feel the same way every time Nassim likes a tweet of mine..
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The lion is stronger than the wolf, but you don't find the wolf in the circus.
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@nntaleb
The main idea (as I understand it) is that the one who looks the least like a doctor has had to overcome a lot more obstacles to get to the same rank. In other words his rank is more likely to be based on his skills. Yes maestro?
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99.906754% of the people Nassim blocks react in the same fashion.
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Antifragility.
“You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don't do too many things wrong.”
― Warren Buffett
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@nntaleb
This is my way to have a convex exposure to twitter.. e.g. what I learn from following you Nassim is way more than what you learn from following me 🤣 so I'm kinda using what I learned from you against you
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Trump: FK him..
"Swearing, amid rich vocabulary, can be a costly signal of being self-owned"
@nntaleb
AIPAC can't buy Trump.
Wow!
Trump is not easily fooled, gets the Palestinian problem >>>better than Biden, that Netanyahu was NOT interested in making a deal, just buying time, that Abbas was "like a father", that he was erroneously led to believe that Palestinians didn't want peace, etc.
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The characteristic feature of the loser is to bemoan, in general terms, mankind’s flaws, biases, contradictions, and irrationality – without exploiting them for fun and profit. - The bed of Procrustes
I know how to exploit them for fun. Still have to learn the 'profit' part.
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No matter how much logic I learn from Nassim, he never fails to remind me how naive I am.
The tragedy is that pictures of bombed neighborhoods inflame sensitivities, but the prolonged (57 year) steady harassment, daily humiliation, irreversible sneaky settlements, & implicit ethnic cleasing in the West Bank & E Jerusalem tends to leave people largely indifferent.
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I could have written the tweet myself. Why? Because of what I've learned from Nassim and all of his previous tweets.
His way of educating us (at least me) has been very effective.
This tweet (which may be a joke) concentrates all the logical errors presented in Fooled by Randomness.
"I was playing Russian Roulette for 1 billion. I asked for advice. Was recommended to stop. Had I not listened I would have won 1 billion."
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In the Levant people curse the greedy by saying "May God never satisfy you."
الله لا يشبعك
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In Syria, it was among the things that were instilled in our minds that Israel controls America through the Zionist lobby, and I used to reject the idea as part of the Ba'ath Party's brainwashing. It turns out the Ba'ath Party was right.
How do you perfect your ethnic cleansing? You get Genocide agent AIPAC to get its slaves to label the refugee agency UNRWA as Hamas-tied UNRWA.
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Like fine wine, Naasim keeps getting better with time. He never fails to trigger some of the finest brains out there to reveal their lack of objectivity using direct logic. I mean just read the replies.
The Gaza Events, 1
Imbeciles argue the "Christ was not Palestinian (meaning not related to TODAY'S Palestinians) because the Romans named the land 100y later".
Triboro Bridge was renamed "RFK Bridge" in 2008 so all your pictures of it from 2006 now evaporated.
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@NitishP43799562
@carefullycnsdrd
@nntaleb
Knowing the future and profiting from it are not the same ting.
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A hilarious comic example of some of the papers Nassim debunks.
25% of car accidents are caused by drunk people, it means that 75% of car accidents are caused by sober people. Drive drunk, it’s safer!
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Why does the camera add 10kg to me and 5kg to
@joonya__
, but not to
@digvijoy_c
?
Never trust a programmer with a stupid iPhone in his hand.
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"Courage is the only virtue you can't fake." -
@nntaleb
"The trouble with this country is that a man can live his entire life without knowing whether or not he is a coward."
— Poet John Berryman
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It's Monday July the 11th here.. and the episode is still not available yet.
Freer People Complain About Freedom More.
@nntaleb
explains
#Tocqueville
's insight that people are most vocal about rights that are already very secure.
Watch the full episode on our YouTube channel on Monday, July 10th, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
@EconTalker
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@nntaleb
2. He, overall, provides you with more tools to overcome the intimidation of the complexity of so-called experts and spot BS.
3. He is publicly available, and one can always run something by him to double-check one's logic.
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“If I tell you that we have uncertainty about the pilot’s skills — he could be excellent, but we’re not sure — would you get on the plane?”
@nntaleb
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