Devesh Kedia, CFA
@deveshkedia_
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Learning every day! Managing Partner | Brothers Financial Solutions Valuepickr:
Mumbai, India
Joined March 2015
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You've transformed me and many others, inspiring us to become learning machines every day! Happy Teachers' Day my friend. Always wishing the best for you
@ishmohit1
@soicfinance
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As this fantastic year comes to an end, here are some of my key learnings from 2023:
1. Remain flexible and stay open to various ideas and perspectives
2. Get rid of mental biases when identifiying or studying concepts or businesses
3. Position sizing is the most
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@ishmohit1
3 days ago - End of bull run
Today - End of correction
Pata nahi kaise karte hai 🙂
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Some interesting facts about India's retail sector:
1. 95% of India is still unserved or underserved by organised retail
2. Players like Trent, Dmart, ABFRL and top QSR players are still below 2% in terms of sharge of total relevant market for each
3. Dmart has the highest
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Always focus on prioritizing stocks based on earnings growth expectations rather than relying solely on valuations. The market is inclined towards rewarding companies that consistently demonstrate higher earnings growth and improving margins. Magic of tailwinds can never be
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Disproportionate returns are made when you bet big on asymmetric opportunities. Discovering such bets is just half the job - magic happens once you have positioned yourself well on the portfolio level
The Indian Economy has multiple assymetric growth themes in play. Here are
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For high growth businesses like Zomato & PB Fintech - Sustainability and scalability were important features here which we cannot ignore.
Growth here might be sustainable due to the supply side dominance of the players.
Scalability is massive because of the huge
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@harbhajan_singh
I think you need to watch the video again as well. There's no comparison to what
@msdhoni
sir brings to the table and what you do. Grow up!
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Some interesting observations:
1. While Trent (Zudio, Westside, Zara) and Ethos continue to show exceptional growth, players like ABFRL, Credo, Shoppers Stop, etc. continue to post flattish numbers and are saying that the demand situation is poor
2. While DMART grew its topline
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The number of small optionalities that Blinkit is creating is mind boggling. Apart from getting electronics, pooja items & board games delivered in minutes, you can now also get your documents printed and delivered by just uploading them on the app. Convenience as a habit is
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Huge tailwinds in travel and hospitality sector!
Moreover, my scuttlebutt says that foreign inbound travel should pick-up massively this year. Supply constraints and pricing power will continue.
Hotels should mint money this year.
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@soicfinance
Few of them have been excellent: Brigade, Godrej Properties, Samhi, EIH, PGEL, Indigo, Nuvama, Tejas, Exicom, Polycab, Dynamic Cables, Goodluck, ITD, Pitti, Rategain, CMS Info
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@ShirleySetia
@TeamShirleyy
.. Listening to d best 90s mashup sung by anyone ever !! The best part being 'Ae Kya bolti tu !! 😁😍💜
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@ShirleySetia
@TeamShirleyy
Can't go for
#YTFF
this yr coz i got my exams 😢
But anyways , this is wt I made fr u 💜😄
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@ShirleySetia
on kolkata's t2 😍😍😍 ,the rising YouTube biggie ,our star is rising big time 💜 Way to go
@TeamShirleyy
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No matter how much work you put in and have systems in place which you follow diligently - Market will keep surprising with you some randomness every now and then. Acknowledge the supreme and unpredictable nature of the market and avoid overconfidence and overallocation as soon
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A new year and some new sectors which seem to be leading from the front and should be studied:
1. Metals and Mining (Aluminium, Copper, Steel - Carbon and Stainless, Miners - Private and PSU Players, Proxy to Metals and Mning - Convertor businesses, Mill Liners, etc.)
Note:
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The demand for real estate lately has been unreal. Never really seen such a demand cycle with inventories at an all-time low for the sector. Premium and branded developers are doing extremely well with projects being sold out in a matter of 2-3 days of launch. As Ishmohit says,
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Private Banks against Nifty 500 has been underperforming post covid and is firmly in stage 4 on monthly charts with no real signs of bottoming or reversing anytime soon.
Fund Managers across the board have more or less been preferring them as their value picks. An overowned
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How to identify sectoral tailwinds?
Technicals can help you identify which sectors or themes are in stage 2 and which sectors are sleeping / struggling.
Fundamentally, management commentary and results need to be tracked. More often than not, the management's optimism, capex
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You can't run after anything and everything that's flying away. At some point, it's imperative to make peace with what you hold as long as the growth potential of your holdings are at least at par with what's flying. More often than not, it'll work out well enough in the end!
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Don't remember the last time we were near highs with HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, ITC, HUL, etc. trading below 200DMA.
Leaders change. People who sell the story of becoming value investors in these names and used to preach the idea of buying and forgetting these market leaders to
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Here is how I am approaching today's session
- Keeping an eye on the sectors and names that are bouncing back sharply and covering all or a big chunk of yesterday's dip. These are the pockets of strength and perhaps the basket that may lead from here on
- Similarly, keeping an
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Seems like the derating journey for the single digit volume growing FMCG giants has finally begun. No matter how big a name, if the growth has tapered off at such a high base, they do not deserve 50-60x multiples. Intelligent incremental money cannot be allocated to such names.
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@ShirleySetia
@TeamShirleyy
So good to see ur mom improving!! She'll b perfectly fine , dancing to ur amazing songs very soon !! Best wishes
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Finally exited the Cables and Wires giant today - 6x from my initial entry and 3.5x from my current avg price
A journey I'll always remember. Started investing in this gem post the Covid dip.
Reasons for exiting: very low valuation comfort, tightened exit criteria, fresh
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@drprashantmish6
@sanjivrbajaj
@TRAI
I get 5 calls per day :)
Also works like a reminder to keep myself hydrated throughout the day!
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Some crucial macro points
Major reason why consumption has been struggling while fixed capital & asset formation has been high lately. Govt capex has risen, while the revenue expenditure (salaries, subsidies, etc.) has fallen.
Expenses Bifurcation Pre Covid:
Revenue
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@dhruvbajaj184
You stay put as long as the growth persists - that's been my learning. For instance, I exited Trent early on the basis of valuations and questioning the sustainability of growth and we've seen how that played out. Consumer facing companies growing fast is arguably the favourite
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Not every part of the portfolio will fire at all times. For every player performing well at a point of time, there might be a few lacking form temporarily. Important to do well as a team and rotate players if necessary as per the playing conditions.
Important thing is to
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Beyond me and a lot of my peers to make sense of the 2.25LCr market value of Jio Finance just on the basis of perceived value. Nothing material on the numbers to show yet and its already close to Bajaj Finserv and bigger than HDFC AMC+UTI AMC+ABSLI AMC+Aditya Birla Capital
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@ishmohit1
Acknowledging uncertainties, odds and randomness is the key. As Morgan Housel says, people tend to hunt for certainty which doesn't exist in the stock markets.
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@SureshKBN
One thing I've learnt - It's about whether the positives outweigh the negatives and the risk reward is favourable enough. And then comes the most important part - sizing. That's all you need to do well enough. Be it FA or TA
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Crude Prices - A huge fall here and not looking good at all in the near term
- Great news for India as it reduces our import bills drastically
- OPEC+ still not clear on the course ahead
- Prices are down 30%+ from the highs and have not responded to output delays as expected
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@ESPNcricinfo
@cricketaakash
Rishab Pant's career has only started,he will be given more opportunities.Dhoni sir is irreplaceable as of now. You've lost my respect sir!
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@moneyworks4u_fa
I believe the steps taken by the RBI were more because of how the Fed has been hiking their interest rates. Overall, the RBI in my opinion, has done an excellent job to bring the inflation levels back within the target range.
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@ishmohit1
JSL, Polycab, KEI, TD Power, RK Forgings, Pricol and GPIL
Learnings - Starting valuations should be reasonable and growth visibility should be clear. Tailwinds + Rerating + Position Sizing + Power of Holding Winners can create magic!
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@LearningEleven
Real value at these prices. Added my second tranch today. Will look for 1500-1600 levels for my final tranche.
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The illusion of control can be scary, especially in the stock markets - leading investors to overestimate their influence over market movements.
Often, when stocks rise post-analysis, investors mistakenly attribute this to their skill, ignoring the several external factors and
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@SureshKBN
Absolutely. Borrowed conviction and following others decisions blindly can leave you hanging in difficult times. Focusing on building my own process and conviction has helped me make the best use of all the learnings.
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@iNatashaSingh
@ShirleySetia
This is such an amazing video :) all of the messages were just so true :) Pyjama Popstar XD
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@SureshKBN
Seriously. Too many good businesses to work on. Good headache to have. Hopefully some consolidation on the momentum front which may allow us some time to build conviction and get decent entry level valuations.
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@EquityInsightss
Your posts are very insightful, focusing on the most important metrics and pointers, making it easier to stay in touch and revisit the thesis on multiple good businesses. Keep up the good work!
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@LearningEleven
For me, it is a niche business to sit on with controlled allocation. Near term sales may be hit, but with capacity expansion, mostly stable margins and new IKEA stores also opening up, I remain invested for long.
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@Manish10744459
@soicfinance
I'm sure the wind side will still do well given the optimistic targets set for the renewable energy as a pack. But lower budget allocation for wind and increasing the same for solar does say something.
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@_Sandeep09
It shall exploit the pricing power it has earned. A very good call by the management to introduce business class on their busiest routes and channels.
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@ShirleySetia
@TeamShirleyy
Feel so unlucky that I can't be a part of
#YTFF
with our star because of my boards !! Anyways , best wishes 😄💜😁
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@nadeemh229
@KratikaSaxena4
luks lyk
@ShirleySetia
has stopped replying her old fans XD we love u anyway ,wil alwys b waitng
#ShirleySpeaks
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@shome_rajarshi
Everyone has their own ideas and processes. To proclaim that your process is the best shows the depth you have as a learner, which is the foremost important quality of a good investor. Staying humble and acknowledging this is important. Also, ignoring valuations? Best of luck..
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@caswapnilkabra
@ishmohit1
Excellent thread. Thanks
@caswapnilkabra
@threader_app
kindly compile this thread
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@soicfinance
How much time should we give to a business where our thesis isn't working out the way we had expected it to? Any thumb rule for the same?
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@Ramsrikanth555
@soicfinance
Focus on the aggregator who is growing much faster than the specific players. Among the players too, the ones selling more of ULIPs & Term policies are doing better than the ones selling traditional plans.
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@LearningEleven
Polycab remains my favourite pick and highest allocation. One of the few permanent members of my portfolio over the years
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The market is becoming narrower, both in terms as well as price as well as business momentum. As a result, there are only a handful of exceptional opportunities you can actually bet big on here.
Idea should therefore be to allocate smartly towards the ones which still have a
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@shabgautam
Yes. Proxy plays may continue to do well but the developers look to be much better placed at the moment!
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@nid_rockz
Yes. Management seems confident of growth and it is rare to see mgmts revising revenue guidance on the upside, especially in a scenario wherein IT companies are struggling to maintain growth. On charts, buying volumes are much higher than selling volumes - matter of time I guess.
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@LearningEleven
Absolutely. During such times, we tend to get so hung up on the good side of the story along with the rising stock prices, that we forget about terms like mean reversion, anti thesis, valuations and unexpected external/internal factors.
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@madrasigujju
@soicfinance
Both should do well with a slight bias towards Solar. Higher capex allocation from the govt, easier installation with lower investment compared to Wind. Overall, the targets for both remain optimistic and getting anywhere close to that will lead to a lot of companies doing well.
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@ShirleySetia
goosebumps .. Literally !! One of your best covers ever. Specially the Punjabi twist in the end. Already my new favourite 😍💜😍
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@nison_steve
Volumes are amazing. Also, look at the weekly and monthly charts. It's a beautiful setup.
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@avbharde
@soicfinance
The thesis can change as well and that is what we call anti-thesis. AMCs are not making enough wealth for the shareholders. Always review your ideas and the performance. Blindly holding for the long term is not the best way to do it.
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@ShirleySetia
Can't wait to see u live 😍😍 can't come to
#YTFF
coz of my exams 😭 would u perform in Calcutta someday fo us ?
#ShirleySpeaks
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@ShirleySetia
@YouTubeIndia
Can't wait to see u singing in Bollywood , who wud u wish to sing for in ur first song ?
#ShirleySpeaks
#YTFF
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@ShirleySetia
@YouTubeIndia
#YTFF
#ShirleySpeaks
Will you come to Calcutta sometime to perform for us please 😍😍 ? Would love to see u live
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@ashwinravi99
I'm a huge fan but the man who played the biggest role in your career
@msdhoni
deserved a mention, shame on you Disappointing
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@bhogleharsha
I reckon
@msdhoni
has to be given more time and opportunities up the order, rather than blaming him every time India loses!
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@VVSLaxman281
Surprised 2 hear it from you that
@msdhoni
,the fittest n smartest wk batsman in India,should make way fr a youngster in T20Is
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@sjain_13
@soicfinance
Check the latest budget allocations for each sector and the comparison with the previous one. There lies your answer!
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@KapilSharmaFC9
@KapilSharmaK9
can't wait for 'The Kapil Sharma Show' show 😍😍😍 so good to see d masters of comedy back on TV, Love u Kapil
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@scottbstyris
@StarSportsIndia
#indvsnz
360?😂 They haven't managed to score that much in tests ,let them get past 200 runs first😂 Go India 💙
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@ShirleySetia
@YouTubeIndia
#YTFF
#ShirleySpeaks
Will you come to Calcutta sometime to perform for us please 😍😍 ? Would luv to see u live
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@riteshmjn
All I get reminded of is your speech on the 'Brave New World' and why there's a huge possibility of de-dollarisation in the coming years.
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@bhogleharsha
@sanjaymanjrekar
@virendersehwag
@ImZaheer
Why can't we think of Ajinkya Rahane as an opener in tests. Has a solid technique and plays as an opener in other formats too. Players like Rahul, Rohit, Vihari can bat in the middle order. Thoughts?
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Had mentioned the importance of capital allocation decisions for these companies. Prima facie, not sure if PB Fintech is taking the best ones as of now. Will be interesting to listen to the management's thought process behind the same.
Disc: not a recommendation
For high growth businesses like Zomato & PB Fintech - Sustainability and scalability were important features here which we cannot ignore.
Growth here might be sustainable due to the supply side dominance of the players.
Scalability is massive because of the huge
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