I got an opportunity to share my global macro outlook with Groww team last week. I covered the following themes in Hinglish US outperformance likely over Electrification & Nuclear Energy continues to be our macro theme of the decade Gold in a structural bull run China is increasingly looking tradeable Argentina – Revival and the beginning of a new shale revolution Canadian assets in trouble India - select small and mid-caps to outperform large caps … structure of the Indian economy is undergoing a change.

RT @riteshmjn: From this week FFTT by @LukeGromen 1/

Looks like PM Modi has agreed to President Trump.

RT @kpac_15: Largest fentanyl lab in the history of the world busted in Vancouver. Chinese organized crime, possibly Iran. liberals won’t…

RT @annmarie: More from Trump on Treasuries

RT @annmarie: Trump suggested DOGE has found irregularities in US treasuries & intimated that may lead the US to disregard some. “Maybe we…

RT @riteshmjn: “You need bring the tariffs down PM Modi “… said President Trump when they both meet next week at White House. “We also ne…

RT @Ryan_r_Williams: Cell phones, airlines, grocery stores: Canada’s Monopoly Problem. How did we get here. How do we get out. https://t.…

RT @CliveMaund: Where gold goeth, silver and Precious Metals stocks shalt follow...   #Gold #Silver #PreciousMetal…

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One of the best weekend Macro Reads. Michael Hartnett, BofA | Going Long The BIG Trade - gold is soaring even as nominal (and real) yields as well as the dollar continue to rise and are at what multi-year "twin peaks"...yet so far it has been “risk-on” for stocks in 2025 (the XBD broker/dealer index is at new highs); at the same time, regional banks & REITs are breaking above their ‘21/’22 highs (KRE>$70, VNQ>$100) which is the biggest tell investors need to close their big bond Underweight - given the relative underperformance of the US vs the rest of the world as the following YTD equity returns show...Brazil 12%, Germany 10%, China 6%, UK 6%, Australia 6%, Canada 4%, US 3%, Japan 1%; ... it's time to close out the "US exceptionalism trade" as international stocks are front-running peak US exceptionalism, the coming geopolitical peace (Middle East/Russia/Ukraine), and the lack of escalation in the US China trade war (only one that matters) - one place where there is no “twin peaks” however, is in the gold price (which has been hitting new record highs pretty much every day for the past month and is now a question of when not if it will surpass $3000); That's because, periods of big history = big gold bulls (1930s depression, 1970s stagflation, 9/11, GFC, populism in 2020s)...and the regime change Trump 2.0 is determined to make history. And gold is already frontrunning it. - in the latest week, only a tiny $0.1 billion was allocated to gold (in the US). Here is where the bulk of flows moved: $46.8bn to cash, $16.6bn to bonds, $2.2bn to crypto, $0.1bn to gold, $0.6bn from stocks. The Private Client allocation: out of $3.9tn AUM, 63.3% is in stocks, 18.7% is in bonds, and 11.2% in cash; putting this in context, the allocation to Bonds is lowest since Jul 2022, to International equity markets just 13% of total equity ETF positions (c/o “Magnificent 7” = 36% of top stock holdings), and allocation to Gold just 0.2% of total AUM; Those are the BIGs to buy. Big Picture: US stocks at all-time highs, gold at all-time high, crypto at all-time high, yet US Treasury prices are 50% below 2020 all-time high. - in the past 5 years, asset prices have traded themes of Anything but Bonds (ABB), Anyone but Populists (ABP), Anywhere but China (ABC), All-In on AI (AIAI); in the current quarter (Q1 2025) investors remain positioned for up-in-US stocks, up-in-US dollar, up-in-UST yields as Trump 2.0 = “US exceptionalism-squared.” The investor zeitgeist is stay risk-on until: - 2nd wave inflation causes Fed hikes, - US growth surprises down (via say fiscal tightening/payrolls <50k /credit event). The BIG Trade, go long “BIG” in '25, expecting contrarian outperformance of Bonds, International stocks, Gold. ( via Octavian Adrian Tanase)

“You need bring the tariffs down PM Modi “… said President Trump when they both meet next week at White House. “We also need Indian conglomerates to invest in US by hiring US workers to make in U.S. .. we are willing to give them incentives and guarantees against their investments” … for US and India to continue to have close relations … we have already closed down USAID which was undermining the sovereignty of India. Finally we have send F-35 Lightening II to Bangalore Aero show in Bangalore and we would open our entire arsenal.. give you favourable terms but you will not buy any more Sukhoi from Russia or Rafael from France…. It will be an interesting meeting between the leaders of two largest democracies in the world and will be closely watched by global leaders and investment community ( chart courtesy Robin Brooks)

Mehta boys on Amazon prime @bomanirani is just too good.

RT @UberFacts: Losing just a couple of hours of sleep is enough to make you angrier

RT @zerohedge: It just wont stop: another half a million ounces delivered today. The entire world' s still accessible physical gold is being…

RT @WarrenPies: FISCAL DEFICIT Whatever impact DOGE is having or will have is still debatable. However, we track rolling net fiscal flows…

@iamjinish Because it has a closed capital account .. it has net trade surplus … so how do you internationalize your currency if your people don’t consume. They have found a better way…. Net settlement in GOLD while still keeping a tight control over their currency.

RT @StableInvestor: Here We Are (7-Feb-2025: Weekend)

RT @BOEReport: Canada’s Alberta eyes Japan for new LNG deals amid US tariff threat, minister says

RT @MelissaLMRogers: JAPAN PM 🇯🇵 has committed to increasing Japanese investment in the USA to around $1 trillion. MEANWHILE, Canadian PM…