Dennis Wilder偉德寧
@dennisw5
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Sinologist, Professor of Asian Studies Georgetown University, former senior US official, former editor of the President's Daily Brief (PDB), Chautauquan
Joined August 2013
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Having had custody of trilateral relations in GW Bush's second term, I find the meeting at Camp David mind blowing. We could barely get South Korean and Japanese leaders to meet with us in the same room.
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All I have to say is this is one of the most astounding racist baiting statements I have seen from a Chinese "diplomat" in a long time. Shameful.
Europeans and Americans can't distinguish between Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean individuals. No matter how much we dye our hair yellow or how sharp we make our noses, we can't become Westerners. We should always remember our roots. Senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi emphasized
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I do feel I need to ask the question. If the US Secretary of Defense was under sanctions from the Chinese, would he accept a request for a meeting with the MND?
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@SRoach_econ
The idea that HongKongers must prove something to YOU is arrogance of the worst sort. I have no doubt that Hongkongers will make the best of a tough situation but don't set some sort of self-important bar that they must attain.
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Beijing has always been something of a “free rider” in the Middle East because, unlike the US, it plays no role as a security guarantor. Xi Jinping can call for a cease-fire and peace talks without having to put any skin in the game. China’s special envoy arrived in Dubai on
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“China has done a magnificent job bringing Japan and South Korea closer together,” said Dennis Wilder, a former top CIA China expert now at Georgetown University. “You couldn’t write a movie script as good as this.”
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As I watched this year's APEC leaders photo shoot, I remembered the day that I had to tell President Bush that he would have to wear a powder blue "dress" at the 2005 APEC summit in Hanoi. After a few choice remarks, he agreed to the dress but refused the hat.
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"Home-made" is not exactly a complete description. Many of the most important systems aboard (like the avionics and engines) come from Western countries with a lot more experience in modern commercial jets.
The maiden commercial flight of home-made C919 lands at Beijing Capital international Airport, welcomed by a watergate ceremony.
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I suspect the biggest "lesson" Beijing will draw from the dramatic events in Russia is a smug sense of self-satifaction that it has correctly analyzed the factors that can endanger autocratic regimes and acted accordingly.
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@FT
@RobinBHarding
This article is almost sycophantic. Huawei is not some innocent bystander who has gotten caught in a gang shooting.
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I’m finding this latest meme very overstated. Xi sees Putin as a reliable partner in the existential struggle with the US, not as a vassal or subordinate.
Xi-Putin talks highlight Russia’s role as ‘junior partner’ to China
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This story appeared above the fold today in the People's Daily. To me, it's a clear indicator from Xi Jinping that he wants the bilateral in San Fransico in November. There is a long history of this kind of subtle signaling.
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This is definitely a first. What message is Beijing trying to convey? Why now? It is the summer training season, but this is unprecedentedly close to the US and in our ADIZ.
Russia and China fly joint air patrols near US for first time via
@ft
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The US position on this is very shortsighted. The Chinese defense minister will be in office for the next five years and it is highly unlikely that those in the PLA below him will be allowed to engage their US counterparts unless his sanctions are waived.
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We are missing something here. Russia sends its Defense Minister but China only sends a Politburo member and a lowly one-star PLA general. Yet China lost 180,000 soldiers in the conflict. Seems DPRK-China relations may not be all that warm.
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My friend Michael Kovrig is using his three years of arbitrary detention in a Chinese prison to unify nations in confronting hostage diplomacy.
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Qin Gang's demise reminds me of the demise of Marshal Peng Dehuai under Mao in 1959. Ten Marshalls became nine marshals as Mao erased Peng from the record--including all paintings and photos. Deng Xiaoping rehabilitated Peng's memory in the 1980s.
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@wendyp4545
This is a phony story. There is no evidence that she lives in the United States and it inconceivable that her father would allow it. It would endanger her and him.
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This is an outrageous development. Beijing needs to produce evidence, that I doubt it has, of criminal activity by either of these Canadian citizens. They are pawns in a horrible game of international chess.
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Secretary Blinken needs to reschedule his trip to Beijing and Beijing needs to send Ambassador Xie Feng to Washington ASAP.
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Another example of China exploiting the crisis in the Middle East for its own advantage. The US protects world shipping, the Chinese cut deals with the Houthis.
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I really must push back against the silly idea that Putin is becoming a "vassal" of Xi. It's ahistorical. What Russian leader has ever been a vassal of anyone? Putin would put 50 divisions back on China's border before he considered himself China's lapdog.
The deepening of 🇨🇳🇷🇺 alignment is one of the most consequential geopolitical outcomes of Russia's war against Ukraine. How so, and why is this important? I wrote about it in a new essay for
@ForeignAffairs
. Some key takeaways in a🧵1/20
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I'm not an economist and I don't pretend to know much about the intricacies of the Chinese economy. But Nick Lardy is someone whose views I have held in high regard for decades. Definitely worth a read.
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“He is the epitome of a Xi Jinping protégé,” said Wilder. “This means that He Lifeng knows Xi Jinping's mind better than just about anyone else, including Premier Li Qiang. He is an ultimate insider and an ultimate loyalist."
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A rather defensive op-ed today from Amb Xie Feng. China is sounding less than self-assured about the state of the economy.
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“It’s outrageous that these kinds of documents would be shared with an insignificant national guard unit,” said Dennis Wilder, former senior editor of the President’s Daily Brief. “This is a real Pentagon problem.”
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Cheng LI has set a standard for rigorous and accurate study of Chinese domestic politics that will be sorely missed here in Washington. I am saddened that anti-Chinese sentiment was part of his experience.
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Kevin Rudd's analysis of Beijing's perspective on Ukraine and Russia is spot on. My only quibble is that he says the Soviets had 18 divisions on the Chinese border--actually in 1969 it had almost twice as many, 36 divisions.
How does Putin's war on Ukraine look to Beijing, strategically?
How can we keep the US-China relationship from becoming even more dangerous?
Part 2 of my conversation with former Australian PM
@MrKRudd
, who is set to become Canberra's next ambassador to Washington:
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Polytechnologies has a long history of clandestine arms sales and deliveries. As the article says, it is not a rogue company but state-owned and tightly controlled by Beijing.
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Wang Yi is the safest choice possible. Well known around the world he will project continuity in Chinese foreign policy. Xi needs to reassure the globe that there is no deep problem in the Chinese leadership. That Qin Gang's problems are personal not national.
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So, Beijing ignores Zelensky's request for contact but invites Lukashenko? Not a good look.
At the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko will pay a state visit to China from February 28 to March 2, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying announced on Sat.
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Wendy Cutler is a voice of reason in a world of hype. I strongly urge you to read her thoughts on how a US-China trade deals can be structured so that both sides can declare that they defended their national interests.
#Trump
and
#Xi
finally meet this weekend at the
#G20OsakaSummit
, and while some say a
#tradedeal
is impossible unless one side caves, that's just not the case. In my piece in
@NAR
, I outline "landing zones" for a deal if the political will is there.
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This insightful article in the
@TheEconomist
calls into question whether the PLA can achieve Xi's goal of being ready for a conflict with Taiwan by 2027. If the Rocket Force leadership was this corrupt, what about the other services?
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Today's event sponsored by
@CSIS
was terrific. It was a delight to hear former NSA Steve Hadley's perspective on US-China and US-Russia relations. His book will become essential reading in many IR courses.
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When people say that America is no longer producing top caliber Sinologists, I refer to NextGen academics like
@JosephTorigian
. A first class, historically grounded article.
My new article for
@ForeignAffairs
. Xi Jinping’s Russian Lessons: What the Chinese Leader’s Father Taught Him About Dealing With Moscow
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@realDonaldTrump
Looks like the Chairman is fishing for the invitation to UNGA in New York. By not seeing
@SecPompeo
he is setting the new precedent that he will only deal with
@POTUS
personally. Why waste concessions on underlings?
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Hong Kong protests will get rougher: Former CIA official
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The Georgetown University Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues is pleased to announce a podcast series that captures the reflections of ambassadors, cabinet secretaries, and senior officials. Check it out!
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Check out my PBSC prediction roster:
Xi Jinping
Chen Min'er
Han Zheng
Li Qiang
Hu Chunhua
Ding Xuexiang
Chen Xi
@MacroPoloChina
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China's top diplomat in Washington "We sincerely hope that the United States will work with China and not allow a wandering balloon to lead the bilateral relationship astray."
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Outstanding analysis by
@FT
of the dramatic changes in US alliance architecture in the Indo-Pacific. The only unanswered question--how does India fit into all of this? Or does it? Watch the Modi visit closely for clues.
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At the invitation of
@GUAlumni
Beijing club, I participated in a dialogue with Professor Wang Wen of Renmin University. This article does a surprisingly accurate job of conveying our points of view.
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I continue to be amazed that the US Intelligence Community has not issued an assessment of the surveillance capabilities found in the wreckage of the spy balloon. I would have thought that the US Congress would demand this.
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A very sensible opinion piece by long-time US China scholar Wu Xinbo.
#Opinion
: Can we shape a new framework for China-US relationship? It is desirable and to some extent feasible. China and the US should not only show each other about their attitude toward the current international order, but also reassure the international community in general
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Its always good news when we can make progress on the MIAs. Our service members deserve to come home.
BREAKING: U.S Sec of state Pompeo says; the U.S. and North Korea have agreed to re-commence field operations in North Korea to search for 5,300 U.S. soldiers who remain missing from the Korean War.
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This is an excellent article by the
@FT
on issues in the Taiwan military that have long been neglected and must be addressed. Wellington Koo has a major task ahead of him--Taiwan needs a Goldwater-Nichols Act on military reform.
Taiwan’s Lai Ching-te calls on army to shed nationalist legacy to meet China threat
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I am proud to say that I am a direct decendant of one of those minute men. Jacob Wilder of Lancaster MA who, at the age of 17, answered the call and later served as an artilleryman in the Continental Army.
The Minute Men stood their ground and America was born.
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We should be voting for Gina Raimondo as the next President of these United States. Watch the CBS interview and find out why.
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My favorite Victor Gao answer.
Q: Where is former Foreign Minister Qin Gang?
A: Somewhere in China among the 1.4 billion Chinese people.
These exchanges between Mehdi Hasan and Victor Gao are remarkable.
Highly recommend the entire episode.
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Who advised Nippon Steel to try to buy a steel company in Pennsylvania in the midst of a Presidential election where the state is ground zero?
If the Nippon Steel deal ends up being blocked, for whatever reason, the case may discourage future investment from allies & partners, including investment in the manufacturing sector, writes Yeo Han-koo.
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I could not agree more with this analysis. I would even go a step further to say that Cai Qi is the real No. 2 on the Politburo Standing Committee.
When President Xi Jinping held talks in California with his US counterpart Joe Biden in November, seated to his right was Cai Qi, a man who is quietly emerging as one of China’s most influential politicians
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“The fact that Biden called Xi a dictator so soon after the Blinken visit will not go down well in Beijing,” said Dennis Wilder, former deputy assistant director for East Asia and the Pacific at the CIA. “Biden needs to be told that Xi does not take personal slights well.”
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I'm not sure that this needs to be framed simply as an issue of competition with Beijing. Even if China did not exist, we would be in dire need of immigration reform that allows us to keep the best and brightest graduates of the academy here.
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This is a very welcomed development from the US and European point of view. Liu He has huge credibility in Washington and elsewhere. Xi Jinping is smart to keep him as an economic advisor.
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This is terrific news! The US academic world has not paid sufficient attention to Southeast Asia. This is a big step forward.
BREAKING: Georgetown University will open a new satellite campus in Jakarta, Indonesia, the first American university to do so, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced while speaking to campus community members in Gaston Hall.
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Just landed in Hong Kong for the first time since 2019. No where is there a harbor better lite at night!
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In 2004, I went to Houston to deliver a briefing to President GHW Bush. I asked if he would be willing to take a quick picture with me. He said sure but proceeded to go to his changing room and put on a coat and tie to match mine. What a man!
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So much for Chinese "neutrality" on Ukraine. Oh, and where exactly does the Xi-Zelensky phone call stand?
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We are approaching the 25th anniversary of the accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. President Xi will be there to honor the lives lost. Just a reminder--Amb Pickering went to Beijing and admitted the tragic mistake made by the CIA.
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Our 2018
@Georgetown
China grad student study-tour has begun with a visit to the Great Wall. We will be visiting Beijing, Xiamen, and Shanghai for discussions on China's national security strategy, cross-strait relations, and US-China issues. Looking forward to a great 10-days!
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My lake house is all dressed up and ready for the Fourth of July! She is an 1890s Victorian.
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This assessment has profound implications for PLA readiness and overall capabilities. Nuclear ICBMs intended to protect the nation from the greatest threat cannot be launched. What do you do with 300 new silos that are construction nightmares? Xi is still in charge but this has
NEW: US intelligence indicates that Xi’s sweeping military purge came after it emerged that corruption undermined his efforts to modernize the armed forces and raised questions about China’s ability to fight a war
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A good analytic assessment of China's first aircraft carriers. US is far and away ahead of China in this category of weapons. Beijing's carriers wouldn't last long in a conflict--unless they stayed in their home ports.
China's aircraft carriers play 'theatrical' role but pose little threat yet
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Super story of how US China diplomacy really works. If you want more of the history, I wrote this in April 2023.
Managed Competition: Finding Answers in U.S.-China Diplomatic History ()
The inside story of the secret backchannel between the US and China
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This style of unsafe intercept, called a thumping manuever, is of the same nature as the intercept that caused the fatal crash of an F-8 and a US EP-3 on 1 April 2001, forcing the US pilot and his crew down on Hainan Island. We are courting disaster.
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If you are thinking of getting a graduate degree on the world's most dynamic region, you owe it to yourself to take a look at our program.
Applying to grad school this fall? Visit us at to learn more about our M.A. in Asian Studies (MASIA) degree.
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"Beijing will probably try to excuse the tardiness of the ceremony by claiming that zero COVID had made it difficult. But no other U.S. ambassador has ever been treated as just another member of the diplomatic corps," according to Wilder
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On the morning of 9/11, we were rushed out of CIA Headquarters because of concerns that one of the planes was coming in our direction. As I left the building I saw Steve Kappas, a senior Directorate of Operations officer. I went up to him and asked who did this? With a steely
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Thoroughly enjoyed being grilled tonight on who will win in November by
@klustout
of
@CNN
at an
@AsiaSocietyHK
event. Of course, I had all the answers.
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Superb analysis. It shows that this story is far more complex than a simple attack on foreign firms. There is a large warning to Chinese citizens not to commit "espionage."
The best profile yet of Capvision, its backers and the crackdown that threatens the company, by
@GradyMcGregor
and
@NorthropKatrina
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Working for a university founded by the Jesuit order, I have come to appreciate more and more their contributions over the centuries to scholarship on China.
@USChinaGU
, we like to say that we are simply following in the footsteps of Matteo Ricci SJ.
The old Jesuit library in Shanghai (上海图书馆徐家汇藏书楼) is a fabulous resource for anyone researching life in China/Shanghai in the early 20th century. In the course of researching The Peking Express story, the staff was most helpful. A national treasure.
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“China has been worried for some time that the US might increase sanctions on China, particularly in the banking arena, because of its support to Russia during the war,” said Dennis Wilder, a former CIA China analyst now at Georgetown University.
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Mystery Clouds North Korea's Chemical Arsenal
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“When we went to the 2008 Olympics, Xi Jinping was actually in charge of the Olympics. … It was one of the most boring meetings I'd ever been in. Xi Jinping gave nothing. He was cardboard. He wasn't going to tell us a thing about himself. He was not going to show his hand. And
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Bush, who was “very eager to bind the alliance together” and made improving relations “part of our China policy,” convened a three-way meeting...“Afterwards, President Bush leaned towards us and said ‘well, that was a boxing match, not a meeting,’” Wilder recalled.
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If you are not that excited to see me in Hong Kong, surely you won't want to miss
@klustout
of CNN International fame!
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The MSS website remains in overdrive on counterintelligence once again undercutting China's claim to creating a good environment for foreign business. Imagine if the CIA website were so "creative."
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Airbus didn't get everything it wanted out of the Macron trip but it is definitely pulling out ahead of Boeing. Boeing taking a hit for US policies.
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“FBI director Christopher Wray has been very outspoken about the Chinese intelligence threat,” Wilder added. “Perhaps Beijing wanted to demonstrate that spying goes both ways and that the US does not have the moral high ground on this issue.”
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Gen Li is quoted as saying, "Li said that the countries' relations “outperform the military-political unions of the Cold War era."
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Beijing is making it abundantly clear that the US side asked for the phone call and the Blinken visit. China's negotiating stance is unyielding--the US is responsible for all the problems in the relationship...not exactly a formula for productive give-and-take diplomacy.
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Secretary Raimondo appears to have had the most substantive of all the Cabinet sojourns to Beijing this year. Reestablishing working groups is important even if the gulf between the two sides remains deep and wide.
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People are comparing today's campus activism with the anti-war movement and the civil rights movement. But I'm quite sure no one who marched in the 1960s and 1970s wanted to hide their identities. They were proud to stand for what they believed no matter the cost.
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Congratulations to
@asianstudiesgu
and particularly Penner Chair Evan Mederios for a superb China conference yesterday. Even
@Dimi
wasn't half bad.
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This is the kind of Sino-Russian cooperation that occurs these days under the radar. One look at a map tells you why this is a boon to Heilongjiang and Jilin.
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I applaud Beijing's decision to revert to positive panda diplomacy with the West. I'm slightly miffed that it's San Diego first, over Washington, apparently rewarding Gov Newsome for being the first US governor to visit China after COVID.
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