Max Chiswick
@chisness
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Following
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Learn through games! https://t.co/WLkGcszfvR
Joined March 2009
@DougPolkVids @MikeMcDonald89 I did some modeling to evaluate strategy for when to reset an attempt (this figure based on having fixed 80% probability to make each shot, probably many improvements possible)
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Just bought 1 kg of carrots for 50 cents. Brought to restaurant. Restaurant agrees to clean and peel if waiter and peeler each get 1 piece. Results:
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Ran bad with seat draw (@NateSilver538 on my left), but ran good in other things and now get to donate $8.6k to TBD charity.
Thank you to everyone who came to Manifest and made it so special!. We look forward to seeing you next year!
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@JeffLadish Nothing to disagree with but I don’t think this captures the magnitude of how bad this is. Also things like this:.
A highly credible source very close to the Sam/FTX situation on what was going on internally:
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I will be impressed if anything on this trip is more dangerous than this taxi ride from the cairo airport #tourdafrique.
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ACX meetup in Brooklyn: Someone talking about doing fashion arbitrage as a business and mentioned an obscure site that I immediately identified. Which earned me this special compliment: “For how you’re dressed you sure seem to know a lot about this stuff!”.
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Ideal setup, except: . - Carrots not organic.- Laptop dirty.- Book falling apart.- New monitor started smelling like it was overheating, so had to unplug
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Delhi 40 min Uber from train station cost only about $4. Directions took us to locked gate, had to reroute. Driver entered some combination of cost-cutting / tilt mode. Turned off AC, rolled down windows, increased aggressiveness, sprayed deoderant (yes) all over.
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@JonAguiar . “It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes,” the CDC says, “but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.”.
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Just completed something that should have been done approximately 2 years ago and was on my mind pretty regularly. It took under 1 hour.
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7 years ago today I started the Israel Trail hike from north to south and believed that it was necessary to carry a 12 egg holder (never used), a pan (at least it had a retractable handle), multiple physical books (bad idea), and a large DSLR camera (actually heavily used)
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Meal looks totally normal at first glance. But no! It’s actually a combination of Whole Foods romaine lettuce and Trader Joe’s romaine lettuce!
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I'm running a class called "Optimal Decision Making in Gambling and Life" for 4 weeks through @fractal_nyc with @roundrobin42 starting Monday 9/23 in Chinatown. Signup is at and there are still a few spots left!
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Congrats to @yoavtzfati for taking this down! . @ManifoldMarkets Market:
If you like games, @chisness and I are hosting a hackathon / competition this Sunday at @fractaltechnyc where you'll write a bot to play. Rock-Paper-Scissors.
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@petespetes @MikeMcDonald89 @AWice I tried to put together a concise set of sims/figures here: Happy to get any feedback/ideas!.
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AI Poker Camp: 5-week workshop on building AI agents for games, centered around 6 challenges. Jul 15-Aug 15 Mon/Thurs in SF. Teaching with @_rossry and @tradegal_ is advising! . More info:
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Next 5 nights will be in 5 different countries and beds will be bus seat > airport lounge room > Holiday Inn > Intercontinental > Hilton.
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(Combination of hostels, a tent, couchsurfing, and occasional luxury hotels also not)
After extensive testing, I can now report definitively that the solution to life’s problems is not to aimlessly travel the world while living in luxury hotels.
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Turns out I didn’t have to come all the way to the Central African Republic to experience an attempted coup.
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Levels of free with membership Citibike rides (just found out about the 3rd one today)
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Quarantine burpees: If the procrastination wasn't apparent enough from the spreadsheet, I just took a break with 20 remaining to trim my beard
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@ToddWitteles How do people like this and Annie Duke just reappear like nothing ever happened?.
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Made online grocery order for 6 kg of carrots. Got call asking if I meant 6 carrots or 6 kg because this is "just not a normal amount".
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When you start off looking for a jacket and then 2 hours later have 20+ Japanese tabs open, you know you've gotten a little too deep into the hole.
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@abarber1 @lydiardfan This is pretty much the only trivia topic I'm good at! Rwanda miss is a little embarrassing.
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12000km and 4 months later: Cape Town!! 🚲🚲🚲🚲 @ Lagoon Beach Hotel & Spa
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I appreciate people sending me info about the organic carrot E. coli outbreak, but the affected carrots were in stores from 8/14 through 10/23. A bag of carrots has never lasted more than 3 days in my fridge, and if it did, something very bad has probably already happened to me.
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I almost never remember dreams, but last night I was questioning someone hard about why they were using Gmail with all those separate tabs instead of the classic style.
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Let’s go @Taylor_Fritz97! Pictured with Taylor’s dad and the vintage ball machine they used to practice with, which somehow did not have the same effect on me.
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@thinkingpoker Starting off the GTO plays with $5 off $30 AMEX promo ( and $1.50 No-Rush shipping credit
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When washing grapes and you only have water bottle instead of pressure of the tap and as a consequence you get grape dirt breath.
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Saw @CaseyNeistat jogging this morning. Now just need to see @MISTERMORT and can leave NYC happy.
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@DougPolkVids Amex Plat for lounge and get a 100k signup bonus, Amex Hilton Aspire is maybe best value card possible — top Hilton status, free night each year at any Hilton, $250 off at Hilton resorts, $250 airline credit, should be 150k signup points.
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Doomers (play by Matthew Gasda): In a high-stakes battle for the future of artificial intelligence, a brilliant but reckless CEO is ousted from his own company by a board concerned about the existential risks of his aggressive approach to AGI development.
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While @MikeMcDonald89 has been busy shooting free throws for his bet to make 90/100 by the end of the year, Mike Thompson and I did this bet analysis writeup: Plots here show the value of being in every state of the bet and the p(success) for 1 attempt
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@dieworkwear do you consider The Row to be in the same category too? Pretty curious about how the cashmere quality differs between LP, BC, TES, The Row, Saks, Uniqlo, Nadaam, Everlane, etc. Would love to see some scientific experiments!.
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I AM ROLAND AND NEW HERE, I HAVE BUSINESS PROPOSAL FOR YOU REGARDING YOUR LAST NAME. ROLAND. Tempting.
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I went to NU and cumulatively cared less in past 12 years than he is in this one instant 😊
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New @HeartNFTs representing things I've attempted a couple times and should really never do again
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@bsniz @nickkokonas @tock @Chase yes, please make the point redemptions worthwhile! right now the Alinea Group bookings value points at 1c each while we can redeem them for 1.25-1.5c on travel depending on card or way more if we transfer to partners.
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Somaliland first impressions: Immediate SIM card kiosk upon arrival w/ good data rates and all people definitively anti Trump, good start!.
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And in other markets, "Will I eat popcorn in my own residence from Sep 10-Dec 31 2024 inclusive?". @ManifoldMarkets:
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@AISafetyMemes @garrytan When I first learned about EA in 2015 it seemed like the major emphasis was on effective donations and there was some career guidance, but lately seems like if not working on AI safety or a few other high impact careers then whatever you're doing is considered low value.
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Support.
Don't hate on me but this is my standard Asian restaurant order. Plain steamed chicken. Extra chicken. Side of steamed white rice
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@ivan_bezdomny @strassa2 @Quora yeah, quora was excellent like 10 years ago and has been garbage lately.
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Is Keto worth attempting? The difference between my pretty ideal Paleo at-home diet would be only about 60g fewer of carbs and 25g more of fat, which perhaps makes it easier compared to those coming from ultra high carb. Keto salt req v annoying, but carrot reduction maybe smart.
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@brianmrosenthal I've heard very good things about @NotionHQ but personally use @asana since my use case is pretty basic.
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@CrownUpGuy Maybe underspending more in terms of time and not necessarily $$. Money often inversely proportional to authenticity/enjoyment, at least in traveling context.
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