Excited and honored to have been promoted to full professor of
#macroeconomics
at
@FrankfurtSchool
. Big thanks to my family, colleagues, and co-authors. I celebrated with a pilgrimage to the shrine of German monetarism😀
#KonstanzSeminar
We are establishing an Economics track in the
@FrankfurtSchool
Doctoral Programme! US-style, structured, 5-year programme with full funding provided to all successful applicants.
Online info session on Nov 6, 15:00-16:00h (CET)! More info in next post.
Very excited that our paper "Mr. Keynes meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate" is now forthcoming
@JPolEcon
🎉🥳
Gernot and I thought it fitting to celebrate by climbing a mountain 🏔️
@PfeiferEcon
New paper out in
@PLOSONE
with Alex Dietrich and Gernot Müller. We use the fact that while most countries imposed a lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 infections Sweden did not, to quantify the effect of a lockdown. (1/3)
Do you regularly use data from the ECB?
We are working to replace our Statistical Data Warehouse with an ECB data portal, and we’d welcome your input. If you’d like to provide feedback, please answer a few short questions
It's finally done 🎉Super excited that our paper on "Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in U.S. Business Cycles" is now forthcoming in the
#AER
@AEAjournals
!
„Denn Deutschlands Interesse an der Freiheit Osteuropas ist historisch bestenfalls lauwarm gewesen. Brennend war jedoch das Interesse am Geschäft.“ Sehr lesenswerter Text von
@GrimmVeronika
und
@AlbrechtRitschl
in der
#FAS
@faznet
Congrats
@christianbaye13
🎉 Very excited that the grant will allow us (with
@RalphLuet
) to further develop our
@BASEforHank
toolbox for the solution and estimation of HANK models. Our aspiration is a
#Dynare
for HANK 😀 You can find the toolbox here:
Halte ich für die falsche Entscheidung. Höhere Preise incentivieren Haushalte zum Gassparen, sozialen Ausgleich hätte man über Transfers machen können.
Wir werden die
#Mehrwertsteuer
auf
#Gas
von 19 % auf 7 % absenken, solange die
#Gasumlage
erhoben wird. Ich erwarte von den Unternehmen, diese Entlastung eins zu eins an die Bürgerinnen und Bürger weiterzugeben. Die Gerechtigkeitsfrage ist für unseren Zusammenhalt entscheidend!
Call for Papers: 4th European Midwest Micro/Macro Conference (
#EM3C
). Date: Frankfurt, December 2-3, 2022. Deadline: 30 June 2022. Conference will focus on role of microdata for macroeconomics. Both broadly defined, so please apply and retweet! Details:
My paper "Does Austerity Pay Off?" (with Johannes Pfeifer and Gernot Müller) now out in the May issue of
@restatjournal
: . In it, we investigate empirically how changes in government spending impact the sovereign default premium. 1/4
Very happy that our article "The Liquidity Channel of Fiscal Policy" (with
@christianbaye13
&
@RalphLuet
) is now forthcoming in the Journal of Monetary Economics. If you're still looking for holiday readings, get free access here (first 50 days):
Very excited that Jens Weidmann joins
@FrankfurtSchool
as a Professor of Central Banking. This further strengthens our group studying the interaction of central banks, financial markets, and the macroeconomy
@EmanuelMoench
@sascha_steffen
Looks like
#DynareJulia
is really going to be a thing 😱 Very exciting!
@JuliaLanguage
#julialang
"Dynare is a Matlab/Octave toolbox for
solving, simulating and estimating dynamic macroeconomic models. We are now rewriting the application in Julia"
Schönes Interview mit
@APeichl
! Ich glaube, viele Forscher*innen in Deutschland finden sich in den Aussagen zumindest teilweise wieder.
@JoPennekamp
@faznet
Very happy to intensify my long-standing cooperation with the
@ifo_Institut
and join the ifo Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys as (external) research director. Looking forward to work with
@APeichl
and his staff and to put the exciting
#ifoSurvey
data to good use.
New paper! We revisit the (survey) evidence against full-information rational expectations (FIRE) and discuss alternative models. Part of forthcoming "Routledge Handbook of Economic Expectations in Historical Perspective". See or
Excellent article on the HANK revolution in macroeconomics 😃
And we are actively working on making HANK models more accessible to practitioners
@BASEforHank
@christianbaye13
@RalphLuet
Very happy that our paper "The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How Large is the Transfer Multiplier?" (with
@christianbaye13
@RalphLuet
& G.Müller) has found a great home and is now available online
@EJ_RES
The macroeconomic modeling team
@EU_Commission
@ecfin
is looking for a
#DSGE
modeler! This is a super friendly and skilled team, and I know for a fact that the job will also involve work on
#HANK
models with
@BASEforHank
:-)
Thanks a lot to
@cepr_org
for promoting me to Research Fellow! This is fantastic news and I am very much looking forward to contributing to the MEF/IMF programmes,
@voxeu
, and all the other great
@cepr_org
activities over the next four years!
@bweder
@RefetGurkaynak
@helene_rey
I am very much looking forward to this year's "Konstanz Seminar on
#MonetaryTheory
and
#MonetaryPolicy
" taking place next week! I had a lot of fun putting together the program. We're especially honored that
@Bundesbank
President Joachim Nagel will join us for a policy session.
The 4th European Midwest Micro/Macro Conference (
#EM3C
) starts today with a pre-conference study of the Christmas Market, followed by two packed days covering everything related to microdata for macroeconomics. Very much looking forward to it
@FrankfurtSchool
@ECON_tribute
Great news for Macro/Monetary/CB research
@FrankfurtSchool
🎉
Let me use this opportunity to advertise again our open positions as
- Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics (tenure-track!):
- 3-year PostDoc at the CfCB:
We are pleased to announce the launch of the Frankfurt School Centre for Central Banking in 2024! Jens Weidmann, Professor of Practice in
#CentralBanking
at FS, will lead the centre alongside Emanuel Mönch, Professor of Financial and Monetary Economics.
New article estimates that the Brexit vote has cost the UK economy approximately £55bn until end of year 2018, or just under £420mn a week. Most of the costs are induced by downward growth expectations rather than by increased uncertainty.
@OUPEconomics
Excited to see our paper "Uncertainty-driven business cycles: Assessing the markup channel" out in the May issue of Quantitative Economics (
@econometricsoc
). Big thanks to editor (
@KStoresletten
) and referees who really helped whip the paper into shape!
Fascinating paper! And I'm super excited that
@FSeyrich
will join us
@FrankfurtSchool
as assistant professor in the Fall. With the hiring of Fabian in Macro and
@FelixChopra
in Micro, the Econ Department is continuing its successful growth path.
Very happy to see this out as my first NBER working paper!
We (
@PfaeutiEcon
, Jonathan Zinman, and I) study how heterogeneity in cognitive skills and overconfidence about those skills matters for observed household heterogeneity, the macroeconomy and fiscal policy.
Short thread:
Lesenswert! "Was ist, wenn die EZB wegen der Inflation glaubt, sich Anleihekäufe nicht mehr erlauben zu können? Dann werden die Peripherieländer plötzlich mit hohen Marktzinsen konfrontiert mit womöglich schwerwiegenden Folgen."
@HannoLustig
@WinandWvp
Call for Papers! If you're a Frankfurt-based macroeconomist (broadly defined), please submit your papers to the "Spring 2024 Frankfurt Macro Seminar"! Deadline: March 15. Full CfP: . Organizers:
@NicoloRusso_
@GonPazPardo
@GeorgiKocharkov
@bornecon
The
@ecb
has a number of new PhD-level traineeship positions open, e.g., to work on
#HANK
models. As with the recent
@bundesbank
job add, it's great to see that central banks are eagerly adopting recent advances in heterogeneous-agent macro.
Tolle Zusammenfassung der aktuellen Debatte über Staatsschulden durch
@christianbaye13
und
@makro_philip
. Aber keine leichte Lektüre für nach dem Weihnachtsschmaus 😉 via
@faznet
We are hiring an assistant professor in macroeconomics (tenure-track)
@FrankfurtSchool
! Both fresh PhDs and more experienced candidates are welcome. Macro research at FS is quickly growing, so come join us! More info:
Schöner Artikel von Werner Plumpe in der FAS zur Hyperinflation von 1923. Vor allem interessant, dass damals schon einiges zusammen kam und nicht nur das Gelddrucken der Reichsbank die Inflation befeuerte.
Isn't this scary? I'm not saying that the ECB should taper right now but don't we have a problem if the argument against tapering is that Italy relies almost entirely on ECB QE?
It'd be harmful if the ECB lets itself be influenced by the US tapering debate. The US retained market access during COVID, with Fed QE only absorbing 50% of 2020 debt issuance (lhs). Italy relied almost entirely on ECB QE, so essentially no market access in 2020. Don't taper...
Der
#Zins
muss nicht positiv sein. Die
#Enteignungsthese
ist gefährlich. Sie suggeriert Ansprüche, die mit der marktwirtschaftlichen Ordnung nicht vereinbar sind. Dazu zählt auch die Forderung nach einem
#Mindestzins
.
Ich liebe es ja, wenn gut besoldete VWL-Professoren aus Provinzstädten ohne echte Wohnungsnot den Berliner Wählern erklären, warum man angespannte Mietmärkte am besten nicht regulieren sollte.
Die
@bundesbank
unterhielt jahrzehntelang einen geheimen Atombunker, in dem sie eine Ersatzwährung für den Ernstfall einer vom Feind künstlich erzeugten Hyperinflation hortete. Zufall, dass die
@faznet
jetzt darüber berichtet? 🧐😉
We have two 3-year
#PostDoc
openings
@FrankfurtSchool
's new "Centre for Central Banking". Candidates ideally interested in the broad topics of central banking and financial markets.
#Finance
/
#Macro
/
#other
backgrounds welcome. Deadline: April 30, 2023.
📢Call for Papers! 14th ifo Conference on
#Macro
and
#Survey
Data in Munich on 5/6 Dec 2024 - Keynotes: Evi Pappa & Olivier Coibion. As always, "macro & survey data" interpreted loosely: heterogeneity in model/data -> submit!
@ifo_Institut
@CESifoNetwork
Excited to give the keynote at the "12th
@EPoS224
Workshop for Young Researchers" today. I'll talk about "Monetary Policy in the Age of Social Media". Especially fun as the workshop brings together young researchers from
@UniBonn
and
@EconUniMannheim
, where it all started for me.
Die Entscheidung heute Morgen zur Senkung der MWST auf Gas zeigt letztlich, dass alle Parteien in Deutschland keine Parteien der sozialen Marktwirtschaft (mehr?) sind. Warum? Weil man hier den Preismechanismus konterkarriert. Thread.
Looking forward to presenting "A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy" at the
#NBERSI
@nberpubs
Impulse and Propagation Mechanisms Workshop on Wednesday, 11:15am ET. Full program (incl. Youtube link): . First US trip since the pandemic 🥳
Third, the actual adjustment of mobility patterns in Sweden suggests there has been substantial voluntary social restraint, although the adjustment was less strong than under the lockdown scenario. Lastly, the lockdown would not have caused much additional output loss. (3/3)
Approximating a counterfactual lockdown for Sweden using synthetic control, we find that, first, a 9-week lockdown in spring 2020 would have reduced infections and deaths by about 75% and 38%. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with 3–4 week delay (2/3)
Call for Papers! 13th ifo Conference on
#Macroeconomics
and
#Survey
Data in Munich on 23/24 June 2023 - Keynote:
@stroebel_econ
As always, "Macroeconomics and Survey Data" interpreted very loosely. Heterogeneity in model/data -> send us your paper!
"Doch die heftige Ablehnung, auf die eine moderne Techniken nutzende Arbeit in Teilen der herkömmlichen Ökonomenberaterszene stößt, zeigt, wie sehr auch in dieser Hinsicht Deutschland hinter internationalen Standards zurückgeblieben ist."
Dem ist nichts hinzuzufügen.
Nach ein paar Stunden Berührung mit Bitcoin-Twitter, möchte ich schnell wieder in meine ruhige German Econ-Twitter Blase zurückkriechen. Irgendjemand Lust auf Diskussion über Schuldenbremse? 😉
@Dullien
@Lars_Feld
@BachmannRudi
Incredibly excited that "Policy risk and the business cycle" w/
@PfeiferEcon
has hit 500 citations. Started out as term paper
@UniBonn
and improved significantly through revision process at JME.
@R2Rsquared
+ refs showed great patience with two newbies 🙏
„Aber wenn Notenbanken versuchen, Verteilungs- oder Klimafragen zu beantworten, begeben sie sich auf neue Konfliktfelder. [...] Sie dringen in Bereiche der Politik vor, die in Demokratien eigentlich gewählten Volksvertretern vorbehalten sind.“
In case you're @
#EEAESEM22
, stop by this fantastic session on "Expectations in Macroeconomics"! My hyper-talented coauthor
@ManuelMenkhoff
@ifo_Institut
/
@LMU_Muenchen
will present joint research on "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro". Full paper:
This is very sad news. Proud to have been a part of this fantastic team in the initial phase. Mind-blowing that such a successful research training program is cancelled at a time when all central banks are searching for graduates trained in the macroeconomics of heterogeneity.
I learned today that the
@dfg_public
will not grant a second funding period to our research training group "Macroeconomics of Inequality" of which I have been speaker
I will learn about details of the DFG's decision only once I have the minutes in written
Looking very much forward to two great conference days on Thursday and Friday. We were overrun with fantastic submissions and the program () is packed!
#Kanake
ist m.E. kein rassistischer Begriff. Niemand würde z.B. einen schwarzen Arzt oder fleissigen Arbeitskollegen so bezeichnen. Er wird vielmehr als - gewiss abfällige - Bezeichnung für solche Migranten benutzt, die sich nicht in unsere Gesellschaft integrieren.
Please submit! As always, "Macroeconomics and Survey Data" interpreted very loosely. If you have any form of heterogeneity, in the model or the data, send us your paper!
Looking forward to seeing you in (unfortunately still) virtual Munich in February 2022.
"Will the free world understand that by trading with the aggressor they fund war and death? Or will it run the business as usual until the war comes to its every doorstep?" I think, he's talking to us Germany!
Check out our new paper on "Unconventional Fiscal Policy at Work" in the fresh issue of the AEA P&P.
Striking how well one can see the consumption effects of the temporary VAT cut in Germany in 2020H2 in aggregate national accounts data.
#EyeballMetrics
„Das Land braucht einen raschen Wandel. Aber die traditionellen Kräfte der Beharrung bleiben stark.“ Gerald Braunberger
@FazitBlog
fasst die gegenwärtige Situation gewohnt treffend zusammen. Mal wieder deprimierende Lektüre für’s Wochenende.
Very interesting thread by
@R2Rsquared
on the economics of the
#CoronaCrisis
. I think the package announced by the German government today addresses his idea of "more about intertemporal substitution, less about aggregate demand" quite well.
In terms of economic mechanisms and theories: think neoclassical rather than Keynesian. More about intertemporal subsitution, less about aggregate demand or inflation. More about real economy, less about finance. Very different from Great Depression and Great Recession.
[11/12]
What part of inequality dynamics can business cycle shocks explain? A large part! See our new
@voxeu
column.
@bornecon
Shocks, frictions, and inequality in US business cycles | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal
Looking forward to three exciting research days in Munich. Today: internal ifo macro/survey workshop for PhDs & PostDocs. Fri/Sat: ifo Conference on Macro and Surveys with keynote by
@stroebel_econ
. In between: beers with
@APeichl
@BachmannRudi
& friends
Great news that the "Handbook of Economic Expectations" is finally going into print. Very honored that I was asked to contribute a chapter on firm expectations about their own variables (with Enders, Müller, and
@KnutNiemann
). Link to draft of the chapter:
Very pleased (and somewhat proud) to learn this morning that our Handbook of Economic Expectations (co-editors Giorgio Topa and Wilbert van der Klaauw, both from the
@NewYorkFed
), Elsevier, is now going into print and will come out on Nov 25.
RePEc offers a ranking of graduate programs by looking at the pubs of their alumni. Lifetime pubs or last 10 years
Based on info in RePEc Genealogy an open wiki you can add to for your program
#dailyRePEc
Die
@bundesbank
sucht für die geldpolitische Grundsatzabteilung eine*n Volkswirt*in mit HANK Kenntnissen (). Freut mich zu sehen, dass die
@bundesbank
hier mit der Zeit geht. Falls noch nach dem passenden Modell gesucht wird: 😉
Ich kann die Frustration im Ausland über die insgesamt zögerliche deutsche Haltung verstehen. Zu oft gibt es große Worte, aber wenig Bereitschaft, auch die Kosten konsequenter Aktionen zu tragen (unabhängig von der konkreten
#SWIFT
Debatte).
Deutschland hat bei Nord Stream 2 sehr lange gezögert; hat sich geweigert, bei der Bewaffnung der Ukraine eine konstruktive Rolle zu spielen; und erscheint nun durch den Unwillen bei SWIFT als Hemmnis für eine kraftvolle Antwort auf den russischen Angriffskrieg.
Two exciting days ahead at the in-person (!) workshop on "Heterogeneity of Macroeconomic Expectations" in lovely Nuremberg. What better way to spend one's birthday than presenting new work on firm expectations and the reaction to news? (Apologies to my wife and kids! 🙏😉)
Looking forward to a packed day full of interesting talks tomorrow at the Franco-German Fiscal Policy Seminar
@BMF_Bund
. Will be presenting work with
@christianbaye13
,
@RalphLuet
and G. Müller on the CARES Act and the transfer multiplier. Summary
@voxeu
:
"When it comes to the EU, voters are left in a no-man’s land, unsure how to air their anger, where to aim it or even if they should be upset at all. For a democratic club, this is not a healthy place to be." - I couldn't agree more!
"Man wüsste gerne, was denn das für eine „Situation“ sein soll, in der die Bundesregierung bereit wäre, Russland vom internationalen Zahlungsdienst SWIFT auszuschließen." In der Tat.
Die EU kann sich nicht darauf verständigen, Russland vom Finanzdienstleiter SWIFT auszuschließen. Der russische Überfall wird weiter von Europa finanziert, kommentiert
@NikolasBusse
Honored to have won the inaugural best paper award at the
@BMF_Bund
Fiscal Policy Seminar 2018. Big thanks to
@APeichl
and the Rest of the scientific committee.
@BachmannRudi
Unfortunately just a dream. The most probable turn of events is us pressuring Ukraine into a peace agreement that allows Putin to save face and then we can happily go "back" to doing business with him.
Thanks
@christianbaye13
! It certainly feels like it's all going to be downhill from now (and don't forget our little joint paper coming out this month as well ;-) )
Congratulations
@bornecon
, so well deserved. Must have been quite a week for you. Promotion, great conference you organized, and then another fantastic publication ...
And another one ... I am also very happy about publication of my paper "Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news" with
@bornecon
(
@FrankfurtSchool
) and Zeno Enders (
@UniHeidelberg
) by the European Economic Review. 1/
Sorry, das ist mir etwas zu einseitig. Ich dachte, wir wären in der Debatte schon etwas weiter gewesen. Was ich als Innovations-Laie aus den Diskussionen auf Twitter mitgenommen habe: Es ist kompliziert und es gibt gute Argumente für und wider. Z.B. hier:
#Biontech
2021 mit €6 Milliarden Gewinn — Die Ablehnung der Bundesregierung einer WTO Freigabe des Patentschutzes für Impfstoffe ist einer der schwersten Fehler der Kanzlerschaft Merkels. Sie schützt Profite der Pharmaunternehmen zulasten der Gesundheit.
Excited to see our new work on the effects of the temporary VAT cut in Germany in 2020 included in the (unfortunately virtual)
#ASSA2022
program. Thanks to Yuriy Gorodnichenko for organizing the session.
Paper draft is almost done :-) Stay tuned for a thread on our findings.
@FrankfurtSchool
is looking to fill a tenured position at intersect. of
#Finance
and Monetary
#Economics
. Experience in working with (large) micro-level data sets would be a plus. No German language skills required. Happy to answer questions. Please share!
Ein deutsches Schlafwandeln, das sich auf kurzfristige ökonomische Interessen zurückzieht, keinerlei strategische Ambitionen in dieser fundamentalen Krise europäischer Sicherheit zeigt, und bei allem nur auf die Bremse tritt, ist das Gegenteil von Verantwortungsethik.