Big Underdog - Bracketology
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NCAA Tournament Bracketologist & Analyst 🏀 Previous Bracket Matrix Champion - Top 25 Voter @rockin25poll - USBWA member - Daily Bracket:
Joined January 2012
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First Bubble Matrix of the Year. A one-stop-shop for NCAA Tournament selection analytics & criteria, with each category weighted based on recent selection committee trends.
@MarchMadnessMBB
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Good Morning Friends. Happy Friday.
Updated Bracketology with analysis for every at-large team. Updated daily through March Madness:
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Updated Bracketology:
Rising: (1) Houston, (2) Kansas St, (4) Iowa St, (7) Illinois, (10) NC St, (10) Iowa & (11) Northwestern
Falling: (6) Duke, (7) Ohio St, (9) WVU, (11) Penn St & (OUT) Kentucky
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Happy March Friends. It's time.
Updated Bracketology after a big week of games.
Follow along for analysis & daily updates:
Last 4 IN: New Mexico, Virginia, Gonzaga & Wake
First 4 OUT: Nova, St. John's, Utah & Colorado
Next 4 OUT: K-State, Pitt, Iowa &
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Updated Bracketology:
Seed List with analysis for every at-large team:
Rising: (2) Iowa St
(3) TCU
(6) Indiana
(9) Northwestern
(10) FAU
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Updated Bracketology:
Seed List with analysis for every at-large team:
Rising: (2) Texas
(5) Indiana
(6) Illinois
(8) Creighton
(9) Maryland
(11) West Virginia
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Good Afternoon Friends.
Updated Bracketology as we begin conference tournaments. Follow along for analysis & daily updates:
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Updated NCAA Tournament Bracketology.
Follow along for analysis & daily updates:
Last 4 IN: St. John's, Virginia, Indiana St, Texas A&M
First 4 OUT: New Mexico, Nova, Colorado, Providence
Next 4 OUT: Utah, Iowa, Ohio St, Kansas St
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Good Afternoon Friends.
Updated Bracketology with analysis for every at-large team. Updated daily through March Madness:
Last 4 IN: Seton Hall, Butler, Providence & Ole Miss
First 4 OUT: Utah, Cincy, Gonzaga & Villanova
Next 4 OUT: Wake Forest,
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Good Morning Friends. Updated Bracketology with analysis for every at-large team. Updated daily through March Madness:
⬆️: Illinois, Boise St, St. Mary's & Butler
⬇️: Duke, Creighton, Kentucky & Clemson
Last 4 IN: Ole Miss, Cincy, Virginia & Providence
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Updated Bubble Matrix. A one-stop-shop for NCAA Tournament selection analytics & criteria, with each category weighted based on recent selection committee trends.
@MarchMadnessMBB
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Updated Bracketology:
Seed List with updated analysis for every at-large team:
Rising: (3) Marquette
(6) San Diego State
(6) Michigan State
(7) Kentucky
(10) West Virginia
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Updated Bracketology after an upset filled weekend:
Follow along daily thru March Madness:
Last 4 IN: New Mexico, Virginia, Wake & Gonzaga
First 4 OUT: Butler, Texas A&M, Pitt & Nova
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Get caught up on the college hoops season with
updated Bracketology and analysis for every at-large team. Updated daily through March Madness:
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Happy Friday Friends. Updated Bracketology after a big week of games. Follow along for analysis & daily updates:
Last 4 IN: Villanova, St. John's, Virginia & Iowa
First 4 OUT: New Mexico, Providence, Colorado & Drake
In the Mix: Texas A&M, J.
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Most major conference bubble teams: Miss. St, St. John's, Texas A&M, Virginia, Pitt, Colorado & New Mexico entered the week thinking one win would get them into the NCAA Tournament. But the bubble had an all-time epic day yesterday and in some cases another win will be required.
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Good Morning Friends.
Updated Bracketology after a big weekend.
Follow along for analysis & daily updates:
Right now the Big East is dominating the bubble picture. 4 of the last 5 teams in our projected bracket reside from the Big East. 1 or 2 of
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Good Afternoon Friends. Happy Friday.
Updated Bracketology with analysis for every at-large team. Updated daily through March Madness:
Last 4 IN: Florida, Seton Hall, Ole Miss & Providence
First 4 OUT: Utah, Cincy, St. John's & Gonzaga
Next 4 OUT:
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Pittsburgh has won 10 of their last 12, boasts solid metrics (NET 40, KenPom 40, SOR 42) and while they absolutely have a path to an at-large bid, they have a big strike against them:
Panthers Non-Conference Strength of Schedule of 344 (out of 362). The selection committee has
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Updated Seed List on the eve of March.
Follow for more analysis & daily updates:
Last 4 IN: New Mexico, Virginia, Gonzaga & Wake Forest
First 4 OUT: Nova, St. John's, Utah & Colorado
Next 4 OUT: Syracuse, Pitt, Kansas St. & Iowa
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Iowa’s resume is one of the most unique in terms of seeding. Will the committee favor Hawkeyes’ winning 10 of last 12, NET of 15, predictive metrics of 14 & Keegan Murray’s brilliance? Or penalize them for only 2 Quad-1 wins & a Non Conf SOS of 272? Current projection: 5 Seed
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Proof that margin of victory weighs heavily in NET rankings:
Iowa St. currently ranks at
#5
nationally. Cyclones own zero Quad 1 wins, and 8 of 10 wins are Quad 4. Their SOS sits at 288 of 362. But margin of victory is 28, 2nd nationally. Quad 1 chances abound in fantastic
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The selection committee has been adamant in recent years of the importance in quality non-conference scheduling.
Bubble teams that need to be overly convincing in conference play due to weak NCSOS:
Clemson (348)
LSU (334)
Texas Tech (307)
NW (304)
Miss St (287)
AZ St (253)
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Updated Bracketology:
Seed List with analysis for every at-large team:
Rising: (1) Houston
(4) Miami
(5) Northwestern
(6) Maryland
(8) Pittsburgh
(10) Texas A&M
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Good Morning Friends.
ICYMI: Updated Bracketology heading into the weekend with analysis for every at-large team.
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Syracuse (71) was 2 spots BEHIND Georgia Tech (69) in RPI. Georgia Tech just fired their coach. Meanwhile, Orange prep for Final 4.
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Really enjoyed the conversion with Erik & Sean! Please give it a listen and follow
@haslametrics
@SeanADillon
on the road to March Madness.
Thanks to
@bigunderdogblog
&
@haslametrics
for breaking down the teams and the analytics for the
@Rockin25poll
!
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Good Afternoon Friends. Happy Friday.
Updated Bracketology with analysis for every at-large team. Updated daily through March Madness:
⬆️: Auburn, Clemson, St. Mary's & Virginia
⬇️: Wisconsin, Creighton, Fla Atlantic & Mich. St
Last 4 In: Wash.
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Updated Bracketology with analysis for every at-large team. Updated daily through March Madness:
And if your just joining since it's March, welcome aboard for the stretch run. Some Friday afternoon reading to get you caught up.
@MarchMadnessMBB
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Good Afternoon Friends. Happy Friday.
Updated Bracketology with analysis for every at-large team. Updated daily through March Madness:
⬆️: So. Carolina, TCU, Boise St. & St. Mary's
⬇️: Kentucky, Auburn, St. John's & Utah
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A friendly reminder as we watch multiple highly ranked teams lose tonight: AP & Coaches poll rankings are not part of the NCAA Tournament selection criteria in any way. As fans, focus on quality wins, avoiding bad losses & offensive/defensive efficiencies.
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Good Afternoon Friends. Updated Bracketology with analysis for every at-large team. Updated daily through March Madness:
@MarchMadnessMBB
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The run of bid stealers continues to escalate.
- NC State claims an auto-bid.
- AAC winner tomorrow UAB/Temple
- A-10 winner tomorrow Duquesne/VCU
- New Mexico solidified a spot with MWC title
- And.....Oregon leads Colorado.....
It's a tough
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Good Morning Friends. Happy Friday. Updated Bracketology with analysis for every at-large team. Updated daily through March Madness:
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Dayton has received the benefit of the doubt thus far in projections & polls - mostly due to their superb metrics (NET 21, POM 25, KPI 10, SOR 15) & while DaRon Holmes is fantastic - the reality is that the Flyers don't own a win over a projected at-large team. Their resume is
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Updated Bracketology:
Rising: (2) Xavier, (2) Texas, (5) TCU, (5) Rutgers, (6) Illinois, (7) NC State, (8) Auburn, (8) Clemson & (11) New Mexico
Falling: (3) Arizona, (6) Duke, (7) Arkansas, (9) Missouri, (10) Ohio St & (12) WVU
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Updated Bracketology:
Seed List with analysis for every at-large team:
Rising: (1) Texas
(2) Baylor
(4) Indiana
(6) Creighton
(7) Maryland
(8) Oklahoma St
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You are looking live at the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament.
Boots on the ground for fantastic matchups all weekend in St. Louis.
@ValleyHoops
@MarchMadnessMBB
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First Edition of this year's NCAA Tournament Bubble Matrix
Each Bubble Team's Profile including NET Rankings,
@kenpomeroy
, Quality Wins & Bad Losses compiled here:
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Good Morning and welcome to a full slate of conference play. Updated Bracket heading into the weekend:
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Good Afternoon Friends. Happy Friday.
Updated Bracketology with analysis for every at-large team. Updated daily through March Madness:
Last 4 IN: Providence, Seton Hall, Butler & Texas A&M
First 4 OUT: Villanova, Gonzaga, Utah & Wake Forest
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Updated Bracketology:
Seed List with updated analysis for every at-large team:
Rising: (2) Kansas State
(3) Indiana
(5) TCU
(8) Maryland
(10) Miss. State
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Updated Bracketology as we head into a big Saturday.
Follow along for analysis & daily updates:
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In our era of the transfer portal, tonight take a moment to appreciate & watch one of college basketball’s best stories of the year: Isaiah Stevens. A five year starter for Colorado St and one of the point guards in the country. He stayed the course for the Rams and gets the
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Updated NCAA Tournament BUBBLE MATRIX:
Compiling each bubble team's profile: NET Rankings, Quality Wins, Bad Losses, Ken Pom, Metrics & More. Each metric weighted based on committee's tendencies over recent years:
#Bracketology
#MarchMadness
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@GrahamDoeren
@BracketguyDave
@RoccoMiller8
@kerrancejames
@MBBracketology
@madeformarch
@Matthew92028301
@Bauertology
@tkbrackets
@801bracketology
@AndyBottoms
@brewcity1977
@JBRBracketology
@DelphiBrackets
@Bracketologist3
Well done Dave! Congrats to all the elite eight crew. Graham, thank you for creating the challenge and for including me.
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Good Morning Friends, it's Bubble Day.
Updated Bracketology & Analysis for every at-large team:
Last 4 IN: Penn St / NC State / Nevada / Ok St
First 4 OUT: Az St / Wisc / Utah St / Vanderbilt
#Bracketology
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Happy New Year Friends! Let's Bracket.
Latest Projected Bracket ahead of today's big games:
⬆️: Memphis (2), Utah (6), Dayton (8), Michigan St (9)
⬇️: Arizona (2), FAU (7), Creighton (8), Virginia (10)
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Live at The Octagon of Doom where Keyontae Johnson faces his former team - the Florida Gators. Johnson was the previous 2020 SEC Preseason Player of the Year, and now potentially the 2022-23 BIG 12 Player of the Year.
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Happy Selection Sunday Friends.
A Selection Sunday Tradition - Bubble Matrix (teams not ranked in seeding order)
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Indiana (win over Illinois) & Texas A&M (win over Auburn) will get the headlines - but equally important on the bubble front: North Texas is upset by LT in Conf USA Semis. Mean Green are absolutely an at-large contender: 22-5, NET 39, Ken Pom 43, Top 20 Def & Non Conf SOS of 57.
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Initial ratings from
@haslametrics
Give it a read and follow him throughout the college hoops season.
Preliminary preseason baseline ratings and rankings for the 2023-24 college basketball season are now available at . (1/6)
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Final Project Bracketology as we get ready for the Selection Show.
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Really enjoyed my visit with Will & Jim. Two really good guys with a fantastic platform. Please give the podcast a listen and subscribe to their great work throughout the year.
@accnation
Bracketology week continues with Jason Carmello of Big Underdog
@bigunderdogblog
breaks down his latest bracket and thoughts on teams across the NCAA. Watch the latest episode of ACC Nation with Will and Jim on YouTube.
#Podcast
#ACC
#NCAA
#Basketball
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Drake leads 37-23. Bulldogs are 7-7 from 3pt land. A blistering start. Indiana State is shooting 53% from the floor....and down 14.
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Updated BRACKETOLOGY:
Purdue & Arizona join Texas & Houston as
#1
Seeds.
Virginia, Creighton, UConn & Illinois keeping pace at
#2
Seeds.
@BoilerBall
@ArizonaMBB
@TexasMBB
@UHCougarMBK
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Updated Bracketology:
Seed List with updated analysis for every at-large team:
Rising: (2) Arizona
(5) Iowa State
(6) Northwestern
(8) West Virginia
(11-IN) Penn State
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🏀Updated Friday Bracketology:
Rising: (5) TCU, (7) Rutgers, (9) Providence & (11) Oklahoma St
Falling: (5) Duke, (6) Indiana, (9) West Virginia, (10) New Mexico, & (OUT) Auburn
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West Virginia with an absolute must-win game vs Texas Tech today. Mountaineers (15-11) still have road trips to Kansas & Iowa St, as well as Big12 tourney. 18-14 likely gets them in NCAA Tournament since they own the 3rd best SOS in the nation, but 17-15 would be extremely dicey.
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BUBBLE MATRIX UPDATE
Compiling Each Bubble Team's Profile: NET, Quality Wins, Bad Losses, Ken Pom, SOS, Metrics & More.
Each metric weighted based on selection committee's tendencies over recent years.
#Bracketology
#MarchMadness
#CollegeBasketball
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Updated Bracketology:
Seed List with updated analysis for every at-large team:
Rising: (4) Indiana
(7) Providence
(8) NC State
(9) Texas A&M
(10) Kentucky
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Drake holds serve routing Evansville 79-58. Bulldogs raced out to a 21 point halftime lead - allowing them to rest starters much of the 2nd half. That might pay dividends if 3 games in 3 days is needed for a Sunday MVC Championship showdown with Indiana State.
@ValleyHoops
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Updated Bracketology:
Seed List with analysis for every at-large team:
Rising: (3) Xavier
(3) Baylor
(5) Miami
(6) St. Mary's
(8) WVU
(10) Kentucky
(IN) Oklahoma St
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Updated NCAA Tournament Bracketology as we enter the stretch run.
Follow along for analysis & daily updates:
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Updated Bracketology:
Seed List with analysis for every at-large team:
Rising: (5) Illinois
(6) St. Mary's
(7) Creighton
(8) Pittsburgh
(10) USC
(11-IN) Wisconsin
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UPDATED BRACKETOLOGY:
RISING: (2) Kansas St, (3) Iowa St, (6) NC St, (7) Clemson, (8) Indiana, (10) Boise St, (12) Seton Hall
FALLING: (6) Rutgers, (7) Duke, (8) Wisconsin, (9) Arkansas, (OUT) Ohio St
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Drake fends off a furious Indiana State rally winning the MVC Tournament Championship 84-80 in a classic. Sycamores end the season 28-6. They have solid metrics (NET 27 & SOR 33) but only 1 Quad 1 win (at Bradley). ISU still likely in NCAA Tournament, but will have a weeks long
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Really enjoyed talking NCAA Tournament with
@TimHall971
@colin_barringer
@MadAboutHoops
. Please give their awesome podcast a listen and a follow!
Tried to beat the 🚨on the day's action. A special pod for a special time of year, crush it when you can today. We get in depth analysis on the Tourney Field from
@bigunderdogblog
, you can't miss it. 🗣️🔊Download us now! --
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HAPPY MARCH 🏀
Updated Bracketology:
Seed List with updated analysis for every at-large team:
Rising: (4) TCU
(6) IOWA
(7) MISSOURI
(10) MEMPHIS
(11) PENN STATE
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Boots on the ground for a big time Friday in the Big 10 Tournament. Let’s start with a fantastic matchup of Michigan St vs Purdue.
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The craziest possibility of this year's potential bracket, is a Pitino vs. Pitino game in Dayton....
St. John's enters the week my last team IN.
New Mexico enters the week my first team OUT.
@MarchMadnessMBB
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Good Morning Friends. It's time for the first projected bracket of the year. Please keep in mind one big win, or one bad loss changes the math very quickly. Follow along throughout the year for updates & analysis.
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Updated BRACKETOLOGY
Michigan, Oklahoma, K-St & WVU all OUT.
Committee has traditionally set 4 games over .500 as the baseline for bid. They have quality wins, but need more quantity.
Last 4 IN: Indiana, BYU, UNC & Creighton
#Bracketology
#MarchMadness
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Updated BUBBLE MATRIX:
Compiling each of the 30 Bubble Teams NCAA Tournament Profile:
NET, Quality Wins, Bad Losses,
@kenpomeroy
, SOS, Metrics & More.
Each metric weighted based on selection committee's tendencies over recent years.
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@derek_thompson2
@MarchMadnessMBB
Thank you for reading. In this model & with the current AQ landscape including: South Florida & Richmond - the teams heading to Dayton would be the 11 seeds (Gonzaga/New Mexico, Virginia/Wake). The first four teams not in projected field, just missing the tourney would be: Nova,
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Regarding Texas A&M. Currently have them as my last team in the field.
There has been lots of conversation regarding:
(+) 5 Quad 1 wins & 6 Quad 2 wins.
(-) 4 Quad 3 losses.
But also keep in mind, the committee has been steadfast in favoring:
A: Teams that win away from
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Updated Bubble Matrix:
Compiling Each Bubble Team's Profile: NET, Quality Wins, Bad Losses, Ken Pom, SOS, Metrics & More.
Each metric weighted based on selection committee's tendencies over recent years.
#Bracketology
#MarchMadness
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Ohio State's defense has been on a gradual, but major decline over the 7 years under Chris Holtmann.
Year 1: 15th nationally in defensive efficiency
Year 2: 25th
Year 3: 19th
Year 4: 82nd
Year 5: 111th
Year 6: 106th
This Year 7: 122nd
The
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Updated Sunday BRACKETOLOGY &
Breakdown of each team in the field.
Welcome Rutgers (5 Quad 1 wins) & Memphis (win at Houston Sat.)
Time to show respect to Providence as well.
#Bracketology
#MarchMadness
#Friars
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Excited to join the
#Rockin25
Team! College hoops season is almost here!
The
#Rockin25
College Basketball Poll welcomes
@BracketDom
&
@bigunderdogblog
to the
@Rockin25poll
Two shining stars who you will hear in the future on the
@RockinPregame
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Final at the Octagon: K-State 75, Baylor 65. Wildcats earn their 8th Quad-1 win of the season on a night when they shot only 19% from 3 (4-21). Cats won with defense holding Baylor to 39% shooting. Keyontae Johnson led K-State with 25pts on 11-17 shooting.
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The Mountain West Conference is a consistently wonderful late night treat.
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The Mountain West Conference is a consistently wonderful late night treat.
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@T3Bracketology
@madeformarch
@GrahamDoeren
@kcapp11
@MBBracketology
@JBRBracketology
@BracketNky
@801bracketology
Agree with everyone. Oklahoma also a tough one to seed. Weak NCSOS, and ultimately resume will be heavy in Big12 work. Their profile looks better than it really is.
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K-State tops Oklahoma 85-69. Wildcats shot an incredible 70% from the floor in the 2nd half. Markquis Nowell controlled the game from the start and led the Cats with 10 assists & only 1 turnover. March is all about guard play, & Nowell gives them a chance at a Final 4 run.
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Reviewing bubble resumes: 1 important aspect selection committee has been steadfast on: Penalizing weak NCSOS. Clemson’s 334 of 363 - its biggest strike against resume. Rutgers isn’t much better at 314, but Knights have big time road win at Purdue to help offset.
#Bracketology
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Purdue leads Michigan St 34-27 at the half in a very physical Big 10 Friday opener.
And while the Boilermakers may not ultimately win the nation championship, the narrative that "this is the same old Purdue team" at NCAA Tournament time is not an accurate statement this
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Last night Kansas won at TCU: 63-58. It's the Jayhawks 14th Quad-1 win of the year.
A friendly reminder: Last year - even when you include conference tournaments & NCAA Tournament, no schools other than eventual National Champion Kansas had more than 11 Quad-1 wins.
@KUHoops
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Enjoyed talking Big 10 hoops with JR & Sunny. Give
@TheBigTenHuddle
a follow as we race towards March Madness!
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On Dec. 9th, Seton Hall was 5-4 including losses to USC & Rutgers. Since: 4-1 with wins Mizzou (N), UConn (H), and a big time road win at Providence last night.
Metrics still skeptical:
77 - NET
72 - Kenpom
But plenty of opportunities left in Big East and a very
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@Texiancurtis
Great question. They are in that group as well. Scrubbing into the night. Will update seed list for the morning. This is chaos.
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@HoopsSouthbound
@DelphiBrackets
@been_gee
@BracketDom
@TBracketology
@JBRBracketology
@801bracketology
@BracketNky
@NJBracketology
Appreciate the shoutout!
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Dayton began the season 1-3 with Quad 4 losses: Umass Lowell (256), Lipscomb (282) & Austin Peay (286). Since are 18-5 with wins over: Kansas, Miami, Belmont & VT. Flyers (52) resume looking more & more favorable and battled all the way back to at-large contention.
#Bracketology
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To be fair…the Mountain West Conference has been the most entertaining to watch this year…..maybe it’s only fitting if they get seven teams in the NCAA Tournament.
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USC’s impressive 26-6 record includes only 2 wins over teams projected in tournament: vs. UCLA & SDSU (N). Pair that with a Non Conference SOS of 314 (of 358) and Trojans will appear under-seeded on Sunday, but in reality likely fair. Current projection: 7.
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It was an absolute blast talking college hoops with
@CBBTheater
. Really appreciate Subbi having me on. His podcast is always knowledgeable, fun and authentic. Please give the podcast a listen and subscribe!
New TICH 🎭 Ep. 245:
🏀Tons of fun sitting down with
@bigunderdogblog
to talk brackets
🏀Where do we land on Nova & TAMU?
🏀How many bids for the WCC?
🏀Big 12 scheduling
🏀Brawl in the Southland
🎧:
🖥️:
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